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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
22 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This argument makes sense for some districts, but this is one of the least educated districts (literally bottom 5%) in the entire country.  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

And the biggest shifts left came in the reddest counties -   Not the toss-up county (Mahoning was Clinton +3.3 and Trump +1.9) that ended up 50/50.  

86% white, median household income is $21k, 57% rural, like 13-15% of eligible voters have a bachelor's degree

Pretty sure OH-06 was Trump's best in 2020 - 72% of the vote.  It was a 67/32 win for the GOP rep in 2022. 

Posted
35 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is just straight from personal observation, no data research at all, in my area it seems that special elections turn out the olds at a disproportionate level.  Basically, they pretty much all show up as per just about every election, the other voters don't.  Now that isn't to say that this applies across every district in the country, nor does it imply that every election isn't unique; however I do find that to be more plausible.  

If that does in fact appear to be the case, last night was pretty damning for Republicans.  Let's hope so. 

I can get on board with that. I think the most engaged voters turn out for these and those have strong overlaps with certain demographics like "the olds" 

Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

This part of Ohio/WV panhandle considers it a success in life to finish high school and get a nice job at Homer Laughlin or Fiestaware.

That’s what is dragging the median household income all the way up to 21k?

of course that statistic doesn’t do a great job of capturing income generated from manufacture and sale of such things as moonshine and opiates. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

I know the Nates have a bad reputation here (probably for good reason).

From Nate Cohn’s 2/2/24 article in The NY Times 

- College graduates make up an outsized portion of Special Election voters about 10% higher than general election voters

- Confirming the point above about the olds, 50% of the voters in specials are 65+

- 92% of special election voters also vote in primary’s 

Also Trump has been driving college-educated voters from the R party. Just look at the change in this board’s profile over the last 10 years.

Posted
1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s what is dragging the median household income all the way up to 21k?

of course that statistic doesn’t do a great job of capturing income generated from manufacture and sale of such things as moonshine and opiates. 

Former pottery capitol of the world. Now it’s meth and regret.

Posted

Some more notes:

Quote

That represented a 19-point improvement for Kripchak, an Air Force veteran who, according to the Canton Repository, took a leave of absence from his job at a restaurant to focus on his campaign.

Rulli, by contrast, had every advantage heading into the race. After flipping a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2018, he won a second term in a landslide in 2022. He also swamped his opponent in fundraising, taking in almost $700,000 through May 22 while Kripchak brought in just over $20,000—a pittance for a congressional race.

And while most of Rulli's spending came before a contested GOP primary in mid-March, he still deployed more than $100,000 during what was supposed to be an uncompetitive affair.

The two candidates will face off once again this fall for a full term, but of more immediate concern for Republicans is that—as they did in 2018 and again in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade—they are consistently underperforming in special elections.

Compared to the presidential toplines, Kripchak turned in the best showing by a Democrat in a special election for Congress this cycle, of which there have been six so far. He also outran Joe Biden's numbers by double-digits in every county in the district—including by 46 points in Tuscarawas—except for one (Mahoning, which is Rulli's home base and also where his family owns a pair of eponymous grocery stores; Kripchak still managed to win it).

More broadly, Democrats are now outperforming Biden by an average of 3.8 points across 58 special elections, both congressional and legislative, since the midterms—and Biden himself won the national popular vote by 4.5 points four years ago.

As Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Daniel Donner has demonstrated, special election results, taken in aggregate, correlate closely with general election results for the U.S. House. That suggests a favorable political environment for Democrats that speaks well of their chances to take back the lower chamber, even though an average of generic congressional ballot polls compiled by 538 shows the parties tied.


Notably, southeastern Ohio is not the sort of place you'd expect a Democratic surge. While those with college degrees, as the New York Times' Nate Cohn noted, "make up an outsize share of special electorates," Ohio's 6th District has one of the lowest rates of educational attainment in the nation. Just 20% of residents are college graduates, putting it in the bottom 5% of districts nationwide.

It's also heavily rural and almost 90% white—the very sort of turf that has been trending sharply against Democrats, who last won the seat since 2008 and, until Tuesday, hadn't cleared 40% in a single House race since 2012.

Polling may currently paint a different picture for Democrats, but the same was in many cases true in 2022, even after a series of strong Democratic performances in special elections following the Dobbs decision called into question whether a much-prophesied red wave was gathering strength. That wave, of course, failed to materialize, and special elections are once again counseling against relying too much on the polls.

 

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Posted
21 hours ago, 'stache said:

After 2016 this guy’s evaluations are completely meaningless to me.

Silver & co. were pretty consistent in 2016 in saying a 70-whatever percent chance of a Clinton victory in their model is not at all a sure thing and a Trump win was very plausible. They were basically the only outlet that wasn't treating the election as a foregone conclusion and the only modelers that didn't have Clinton at like 95%.

Texas was favored against OU and UW and was an underdog against Alabama. Play those games again in the same settings and the same teams would be favored (though it would be more like Alabama -2 or -3 than -7 or whatever it was). Clinton was favored for a reason but underdogs win sometimes.

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

As usual, wrong. Democrats have absolutely been overperforming in low turnout elections since the start of the Trump era, because college educated voters do make up a greater portion of the electorate in midterms and especially special elections, and those voters have shifted notably toward Democrats. This is well documented.

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This is just straight from personal observation, no data research at all, in my area it seems that special elections turn out the olds at a disproportionate level.  Basically, they pretty much all show up as per just about every election, the other voters don't.  Now that isn't to say that this applies across every district in the country, nor does it imply that every election isn't unique; however I do find that to be more plausible.  

If that does in fact appear to be the case, last night was pretty damning for Republicans.  Let's hope so. 

Olds do vote at higher rates. Disparities still exist along the typical lines - education, race, etc. - but controlling for all that, olds do still vote at higher rates. Always have.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This argument makes sense for some districts, but this is one of the least educated districts (literally bottom 5%) in the entire country.  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

That still makes sense though, because the trend of educated voters making up a higher proportion of the electorate in specials isn't because all of the same people that show up for a general election show up- there are fewer voters with college degrees too - it's because everyone else's participation falls off an even bigger cliff. That's how you get a very small piece of the general electorate in a district like this exercising hugely disproportionate influence in a special. 

Will be interesting to see the voter demographics if anyone is reliably tracking them.

Edited by gmr548
Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

Silver shouldn't be hated for 2016, as gmr notes he was one of the more realistic pollsters in that election (tons of highly respected pollsters were saying Hillary had a ~99% chance).  Silver should be hated for turning into a dipshit contrarian expert-on-all-things pundit who cooked his brain in 2020 on all sorts of antivax and related conspiracy theories. 

This Up Here GIF by Chord Overstreet

Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

R’s continued talking point—Dems are really trying to position Michelle Obama to run

 

Yea Right GIF

If this is what they are reaching for to fire up the outrage machine things may look pretty bleak to FOX.

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Posted

LEAVE MICHELLE ALONE

Those poor Obamas went through hell and back and don't need to be back in politics.  Ever.  They did their duty.

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Posted
38 minutes ago, Pancho said:

R’s continued talking point—Dems are really trying to position Michelle Obama to run

 

 

Trying to drive redneck voter turnout by scaring them with a black person who isn't even in the race is peak Fox News.

 

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

Trying to drive redneck voter turnout by scaring them with a black person who isn't even in the race is peak Fox News.

 

 

While simultaneously blowing off the #2 in charge who is also a black woman but she’s not as scary bc her last name didn’t Obama 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

LEAVE MICHELLE ALONE

Those poor Obamas went through hell and back and don't need to be back in politics.  Ever.  They did their duty.

Yep. Agree 100%. Totally.

I mean, you know, unless she really wants to.

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Posted

The republicans are running a convicted felon who had to meet with his parole officer yesterday. And he's got a coin flip's chance of winning. Thankfully football season is approaching and Texas will be hell on wheels because I might lose my mind before November. 

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Posted
27 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

We're all losing our minds as of the first incompletion against Colorado State and you know that.

 

LOL at there being any incompletions against Colorado State.

 

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Posted
47 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Michelle Hussein Obama!!!

Kamala is only half black, so half scary, but she was a cop, and they love cops, and she’s married to a white Jewish man. Which isn’t scary at all.

Unlike MICHELLE, who is married to BARACK HUSSAIN OBAMA and they terrorist fist jab and make kids eat vegetables. And her arms are too toned, which is bad for black women, but okay for Marge 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Kamala is only half black, so half scary, but she was a cop, and they love cops, and she’s married to a white Jewish man. Which isn’t scary at all.

Unlike MICHELLE, who is married to BARACK HUSSAIN OBAMA and they terrorist fist jab and make kids eat vegetables. And her arms are too toned, which is bad for black women, but okay for Marge 

 

And Michelle hangs her dark brown shoulders out in public like a whore, which is different from respectable, family values white shoulders out in public.

Y'all see the difference, right?

One of these women oughtta be ashamed of herself...

 

 

michelle.webp

bitch.jpg

Edited by TexArcher
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Posted

Trump embraced people who get tips in their jobs because somebody on his campaign is looking at demographics.

So where should he turn next for more votes?

Bitcoin Bros, because he’s too fucking stupid to realize how many bitcoin companies in the US are sending their profits to Jina.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112601639679885930

VOTE FOR TRUMP! Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT!!! bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/tr

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/trump-is-the-best-choice-for-bitcoin

Posted
15 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Come on people.  It's right there in front of all of you.

Beer Ogles.

image.gif.4b59deded236bc931a0bf7c7cbb1aaf5.gif

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Posted
8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Olds do vote at higher rates. Disparities still exist along the typical lines - education, race, etc. - but controlling for all that, olds do still vote at higher rates. Always have.

Time for COVID to snap out of it and get back to work

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Posted
Trump embraced people who get tips in their jobs because somebody on his campaign is looking at demographics.
So where should he turn next for more votes?
Bitcoin Bros, because he’s too fucking stupid to realize how many bitcoin companies in the US are sending their profits to Jina.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112601639679885930
VOTE FOR TRUMP! Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT!!! bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/tr
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/trump-is-the-best-choice-for-bitcoin

My son is majoring in Bitcoin manufacturing in college.
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Posted

"If the numbers implied by our COVID polling are correct, the vaccines killed more people worldwide than Jews killed in the Holocaust."

 

I don't think the Jews killed anyone during the Holocaust, so this may accidentally be correct.

But it's absolutely amazing what people will believe.

Posted
23 hours ago, immamac said:

I can get on board with that. I think the most engaged voters turn out for these and those have strong overlaps with certain demographics like "the olds" 

I blame Democrats for not using Facebook bots to start a conspiracy rumor that voting in the 2024 election will allow Dominion to steal information that will get around their LifeLock protection and take their home to sell and give the money to Biden. 

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I blame Democrats for not using Facebook bots to start a conspiracy rumor that voting in the 2024 election will allow Dominion to steal information that will get around their LifeLock protection and take their home to sell and give the money to Biden. 

It's a reverse mortgage scam, and Tom Selleck is in on it, sheeple!  

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