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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
49 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

If I was Kamala I’d do the debate with live mics the whole time. Then walk out with one of these and blast it at him every time he tried to talk during her time

8777bcf0846e02ae4dd02badde6241ab.jpg

She’s going to bring half a dozen of those if that’s the strategy.

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Posted
45 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

can someone be on two tickets at once? ballots w RFK already printed in some swing states

Hopefully this is a self-own, causing enough MAGAts to vote for RFKj thinking it doesn’t matter. If we could get them 1, 2 on a butterfly ballot in Florida the election gets called for Harris by 10 pm. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, pacman said:

Trump and his supporters always flip the world upside down. I bet the Q folks believing in the secret cabal of people running the world are having brain freeze right now.

r/pics - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. during his Trump endorsement speech

Posted

All the media criticism with Tapper and how it's reporting is justified, but the dea that Biden wasn't going to lose some support with white men in PA and other states is hardly a concern to be dismissed. It was something specifically discussed several times considering Biden's ties to PA. 

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Posted
4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I think their goal is to get Trump to cancel the debate.   He will look old and cowardly if he bails over a disagreement over terms, no matter what the earlier terms were.  

 

Oh, I think there's nothing the Harris campaign wants more and the Trump campaign wants less than that debate.

He won't show up even if it's scheduled at Mar-a-Lago and the moderator is Jesse Watters.

Posted
5 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

Oh, I think there's nothing the Harris campaign wants more and the Trump campaign wants less than that debate.

He won't show up even if it's scheduled at Mar-a-Lago and the moderator is Jesse Watters.

I think Trump thinks he can do it, but everyone on his team except the most sycophantic is telling him he's not capable. He will of course ignore the good advice and try to debate her.

Posted
37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

 

I feel like this is concern trolling from CNN: casting doubt when she's leading and stoking fear when he's leading.  Either way, it discourages Democrats from inaction.

That doesn't exactly speak to journalistic integrity, but if their motive is to stop Trump, it's not the worst strategy.  And it probably keeps people tuning in.

Posted
22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

All the media criticism with Tapper and how it's reporting is justified, but the dea that Biden wasn't going to lose some support with white men in PA and other states is hardly a concern to be dismissed. It was something specifically discussed several times considering Biden's ties to PA. 

Yeah, the notion that Harris taking over the ticket would lose white make voters who would’ve supported Biden is not remarkable.

But the question is how much that might be offset by (1) others who voted for Trump in 2020 and are really sick of his shot, and (2) black voters who sat out in 2020, and (3) young voters who weren’t eligible or who sat out in 2020.

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Posted

Kaplan Strategies: Harris, 52, Trump 45 (GCB: Dems +3, 44-41)

Kaplan is the pollster associated with Redstate.com and had Trump up 15 in MI and 10 in PA in April.  Don't worry, they spun this as "Harris cannot pull away from Trump" in a poll where she is up 7 lol 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

In WI and MI she is “maybe up a point or two” and in PA she “may be down” a couple points, sources say. Oh, and She’s doing better than Biden,  but worse in PA with white men.

in other words, the fact of margin of error repackaged as sourced reporting with crosstab minutiae to give it color on a slow news day.

Great job Jake!

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
55 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Jake Tapper is a bitch

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

In WI and MI she is “maybe up a point or two” and in PA she “may be down” a couple points, sources say. Oh, and She’s doing better than Biden,  but worse in PA with white men.

in other words, the fact of margin of error repackaged as sourced reporting with crosstab minutiae to give it color. 

Great job Jake!

Also who are the sources?  GOP operatives?  Dem operatives?  Wouldn't shock me if GOP operative are blasting out private polls to keep Trump going and the horserace going in the media. 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

I have a theory he's planning a new book or something - and he needs a Trump presidency to do so. 

Posted (edited)

Morning Consult stays Harris +4, 48-44

Only real change in the poll and crosstabs was Walz' favorability went from +3 to +6

 

Also that Kaplan poll, 20% of voters said RFK endorsement made them want to vote for Trump, 20% to Harris, 58% said "meh, makes no difference"

Edited by Js1
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

I met him once years ago through mutual friends before he got on tv. He's always been soft and thinks he's smarter than everyone else. Fuck him.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

Yes, something changed.... The leadership at his company.  The ones who sign off on his checks.  They changed and now he sucks ass.

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

This first chart has been posted before, but I think it very relevant. It looks a bit confusing at first, but this tracks the gender gap on new voter registration.   The orange is 2020 and the blue is 2024.     The percentage is the greater percentage of women than men registering.

Take a look at swinging states Ohio and Michigan

IMG_3253.thumb.png.82f10a64891465f35a236b5aeec9e48f.png

it shows 6.6 and 4.9% more women than men new registering in 2024.  

Now look at the second chart showing women in Louisiana registration.

IMG_3254.thumb.png.4d812b77afed6464158789c17749f8a7.png

it shows in Louisiana that in 2020 there were more women than men registering with a 13% advantage to the GOP.  After Biden dropped out there is a landslide of women registering with a 14% advantage to Democratic voters. 

The other thing is, the women are all younger voters and most of them African-American.   The bottom line is this ground swell of newly registered voters are mostly going to be voting for Harris, being that younger females lead the demographic.   Nevada and Florida have abortion rights on the ballot.  But preventing a national abortion ban is on everyone’s ballot by implication.     If an abortion rights bill can win in red State Kansas, this could well be a wildcard that results in several percentage points in favor of Harris.  

I am guessing that this issue has not been totally baked into the polls yet.  

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Mark Cuban Notes GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

Ummm if you want Ohio women, go ahead.

We all know you got your eye on Big Gretch instead.

Edited by Js1
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I am guessing that this issue has not been totally baked into the polls yet.  

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

He just doesn’t know how to read very well. You can tell when he comes to a comma and doesn’t pause when he’s supposed to. He’s on the teleprompter and has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

A whole lot of this. I don’t think the polls are accurately capturing the groundswell support from young voters particularly young women. Harris has tons of energy and charisma and doesn’t have the baggage, deserved or not, that Hilary did which is creating a lot more excitement. Combined with everyone knows at this point what you’re going to get with a second Trump term and you’ve got a lot of motivated younger voters. We just have to keep them engaged for the next couple of months and make sure they show up at the polls in November. I hope Dems make a huge early voting push to get those voters to vote when it’s convenient for them.

Posted
13 minutes ago, royiv said:

A whole lot of this. I don’t think the polls are accurately capturing the groundswell support from young voters particularly young women. Harris has tons of energy and charisma and doesn’t have the baggage, deserved or not, that Hilary did which is creating a lot more excitement. Combined with everyone knows at this point what you’re going to get with a second Trump term and you’ve got a lot of motivated younger voters. We just have to keep them engaged for the next couple of months and make sure they show up at the polls in November. I hope Dems make a huge early voting push to get those voters to vote when it’s convenient for them.

Early voting will always be the D strategy. Get those votes banked. First ballots go out in 2 weeks 

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Posted
38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Frank The Tank said:

He just doesn’t know how to read very well. You can tell when he comes to a comma and doesn’t pause when he’s supposed to. He’s on the teleprompter and has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth. 

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Kaplan Strategies: Harris, 52, Trump 45 (GCB: Dems +3, 44-41)

Kaplan is the pollster associated with Redstate.com and had Trump up 15 in MI and 10 in PA in April.  Don't worry, they spun this as "Harris cannot pull away from Trump" in a poll where she is up 7 lol 

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

Not polling, but performances: 

These were all pre-Harris though.  That CO-04 race was, as mentioned, super wonky because it was also the primary and the GOP had a very contested primary with Boebert switching to CO-04. 

If the combined 2023/24 specials are pointing to a D+2/3 environment pre-Harris, you have to think she's bumped that up to +3/4.  So nearly in line with polling. 

 

 

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

Generic Congressional Ballot

Edited by Js1
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Posted
7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

But....  only the very best elementary school level.  They don't want you to know that!  Tremendous reading.

Posted
Just now, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

General Congressional Ballot (Q: do you want a dem or republican for your congressional rep? A: 44% Dems, 41% Reps)

Posted
7 hours ago, The Dog said:

You are correct in that point.

However, they've used the argument that the agreement was settled before in order to keep Trump from bailing and doing additional debates. Now they are trying to flip the script and make changes? 

The Harris campaign is trying to have it both ways.

Tough shit.  Team dotard needs the debate(s) a lot more than Harris does at this point.

Posted
15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of Bible stuff..

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/christians-kamala-can-pull-evangelical-voters-away-donald-trump-rcna167561

How I’ve been convincing Christians they don’t have to vote Republican

Democrats need to embrace the idea that evangelicals, and especially white male evangelicals, are worth winning and can be won.

By Doug Pagitt, executive director of Vote Common Good

During the last month, Christians for Kamala joined the ranks of groups supporting Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. In so doing, they stand beside groups as wide-ranging as Comics for Kamala and Deadheads for Kamala. Because Harris has shown she will include us all in her vision for the United States and bring together what has been torn apart, all of these groups have seized upon the newfound enthusiasm among the electorate since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris.

A religious coalition such as this entering the chat is an important step in the right direction, and, if built upon, could help sway enough movable religious voters in critical battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. What’s more, it could mean breaking the stronghold that MAGA forces have on many of our country’s evangelical voters. Thanks in part to the cooperation of so many self-identified Christian voters, the MAGA movement has seized control of the Republican Party and helped lead our country down a dark, democracy-threatening path.

Central to our work at Vote Common Good, I spend a lot of my time traveling the country speaking to voters, particularly evangelical and Catholic voters who are hardwired into voting Republican, working to get them to break out of those patterns. What I’ve learned is that most don’t want or need their elected leader to be like them, but they really do want their leader to like them. It wasn’t clear that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton liked evangelical and Catholic men when she ran for president in 2016, and it remains largely unclear to many of these voters in 2024 if Kamala Harris does. Trump, on the other hand, probably doesn’t like them, but he put his arms around these voters in a transactional exchange, and he promised and in some cases delivered them power.

But on the trail in 2020, 2022 and this year, I’ve gleaned the reason many evangelical and Christian voters ultimately leave Trump: his obvious lack of kindness. A poll that my organization Vote Common Good commissioned in 2020 showed that in swing states, Trump’s lack of kindness was driving evangelical and Catholic voters away in large enough numbers to potentially affect the outcome of the election.

Voters typically realize that the way they vote reflects on them. And those religious voters who defected from Trump didn’t like the way his unkindness reflected on them, whether it be putting migrant children in cages, the way he treats women, the way he treats the press, the way he treats nearly everyone who left his administration and the way he treats democracy itself. Many of these voters know that’s not the behavior they want their children to emulate.

The Harris campaign clearly knows it has an opportunity here. The choice of Tim Walz as vice presidential nominee is in no small part evidence of that. But it isn’t nearly enough. Democrats more broadly need to embrace the idea that evangelicals, and especially white male evangelicals, are worth winning and can be won without the party compromising its values.

What it’s going to take is a concerted, grassroots effort to reach these voters, listen to them and bring them along on a journey to help them understand it’s OK for them to let concern for the common good, and not allegiance to a political party, determine how they vote. We need to tell them that what Democrats are pushing for lines up with the values evangelicals hold dear — making the world better and bringing people together. Those policies include commonsense gun reform to keep kids safe, engaging solutions at the border and lowering the cost of child care. Many Christians are heartbroken at the idea that they have to choose between a faith that’s meaningful to them and a political identity that has been wedded to it. They don’t know what to do, and we need to help them separate those two identities.

---

More at the link above.

Fuck 'em.  They enabled the monster, they can clean up his shit.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not polling, but performances: 

These were all pre-Harris though.  That CO-04 race was, as mentioned, super wonky because it was also the primary and the GOP had a very contested primary with Boebert switching to CO-04. 

If the combined 2023/24 specials are pointing to a D+2/3 environment pre-Harris, you have to think she's bumped that up to +3/4.  So nearly in line with polling. 

 

 

Generic Congressional Ballot

To add to this, Washington state runs a combined primary where the top 2 candidates advance to the general election regardless of party. Statewide results in early August were anywhere from the D+13 to D+16 range, which would indicate a pretty similar environment to 2020 where WA was D+13 for governor and D+15-16 for most other statewide races. Was Biden +20 but that's because it's a particularly bad state for Trump demographically (lots of whites who played school). Presidential primary was back in March and not included in the top two primary earlier this month.

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