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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I seriously think it's because all their money is coming from Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia, who are all obsessed with their hatred of trans people and think the anti-trans shit works politically.

It's probably not a good idea to rely so heavily on a group of people who thought Blake Masters would appeal to voters.  

They went hard to the paint in 22 with trans, library books, etc., and no one gave a shit.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters. Trump a racist old fool who makes no sense when he talks.

Next question.”

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters.

Next question.”

Arguably the best answer she's given:

 

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Posted
Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters.

Next question.”

You're preaching to the choir here. 

If I ever win the lotto, I'm running for President just for the chance to publicly dunk on the dumbest political journalists.

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Posted
50 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Yeah it sucks that so many people are like this, but that's how it is. And if we want to win and enact policies that we like, we not need to win a bunch of votes from voters like this. The good news is it can be done without actually substantively watering down the policies we champion out of a misguided effort at triangulation, because these voters don't know shit about policy. They want someone who they think will care about them and they want to support candidates and policies they think are popular. It's really that simple. 

Kind of reminds me of the scene in World War Z when they say that they are letting in the healthy people because it’s one less Z they will have to kill.

This was right before the music woke up the mob of Z and they climbed over the 300 foot wall.

Posted
1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

You're preaching to the choir here. 

If I ever win the lotto, I'm running for President just for the chance to publicly dunk on the dumbest political journalists.

Seriously. It costs zero votes and it’s fun.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, but they should be laughing at it, calling him names, and attacking media for adopting Republican framing.

For example- 

“You've called President Trump a racist, but the polls say he’s got 46-48% of the vote. Why?”

”that’s a dumb question. First, Donald Trump is a racist, and that’s why I called him that, but  I’ll give him credit for one thing: he has conned a lot of good people into believing his bullshit. That’s too bad. 
But you know better. I know you do. And with all due respect, for the life of me I can’t understand why you would get this interview and use your time to ask me to play Dr Phil for my opponent’s supporters. Trump a racist old fool who makes no sense when he talks.

Next question.”

Huge reason why Harris is not giving cable news, Sunday shows, NYT/WaPo the time of day.

It's all gotcha questions or they just want to talk about Trump.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

You're preaching to the choir here. 

If I ever win the lotto, I'm running for President just for the chance to publicly dunk on the dumbest political journalists.

Like the 60 Minutes guy who was surprised that Harris shot her own gun.

Posted

The Teamsters union guy that has over 1 million Americans under him was on Theo's podcast. Know he's hated among Democrats because he didn't fall in line but he said his members are pretty split on the Presidency. He's not a hardcore Trumper or anything. He loves Bernie Sanders.

Mainly said they've donated 6x more to the Dems and feel like they aren't being listened to as the Dems are now bought off by big corporations as well.

Mentioned Amazon screwing over their employees and Democrats not listening.

Maybe I'm an idiot but there are apparently millions of Americans that believe in climate change, fair pay, quality education and healthcare for all Americans. 

Kamala saying we are gonna have the most lethal military in the world and here's Dick Cheney is dumb. I'm still gonna vote for Kamala though obviously.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

His small dollar fundraising sucks, the enthusiasm with his base is clearly down, they've got no serious GOTV operation to speak of, etc.

I don’t agree with this position, but let me rebut this or play devil’s advocate.  Let’s suggest that Trump, for reasons examined exhaustively (sorry, @bolverk has me fixated on “e’s”) doesn’t need boots on the ground, small dollar fundraising, or even solutions to real problems (at least in comparison to candidate X).  A huge swath of the electorate has already made up their minds and he has their vote and the polling is keying on the durability of that support.  Harris’s is more volatile because parts of her coalition are still making up their minds (like Arab Americans in MI). 
 

I think we have a tendency to over focus on the candidate and not the voters.  

Posted
Just now, LCHorn said:

I don’t agree with this position, but let me rebut this or play devil’s advocate.  Let’s suggest that Trump, for reasons examined exhaustively (sorry, @bolverk has me fixated on “e’s”) doesn’t need boots on the ground, small dollar fundraising, or even solutions to real problems (at least in comparison to candidate X).  A huge swath of the electorate has already made up their minds and he has their vote and the polling is keying on the durability of that support.  Harris’s is more volatile because parts of her coalition are still making up their minds (like Arab Americans in MI). 
 

I think we have a tendency to over focus on the candidate and not the voters.  

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

Dems eschewed traditional ground game in 2020 because of COVID and look what happened.  @Bateshorn has mentioned this before. 

A lot of Trump's polling "leads" are based on extremely unreliable voters (young men, especially young Latino and black men, and WWC voters).  You have to be in contact with them to get them to the polls.  Trump has none of them - no canvassers, no ground game, nada. 

Because that costs money and we all know where the money for that is going. 

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Posted
Just now, Pancho said:

This. People just want Election Day to hurry up and get here 

 

And this is why I laughed at the Q-Pac polls yesterday.  NOTHING has happened to dictate MI/WI swinging 6-9 points to Trump since their last polls.  Or FL going double digits to Trump unless Dem turnout collapses like 2022 Florida, which isn't going to happen with a competitive Senate race and weed/abortion on the ballot. 

It has been a remarkably stable race.  The swing state polling is broken. 

We aren't bored.  We are tired, boss. 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

The Teamsters union guy that has over 1 million Americans under him was on Theo's podcast. Know he's hated among Democrats because he didn't fall in line but he said his members are pretty split on the Presidency. He's not a hardcore Trumper or anything. He loves Bernie Sanders.

Mainly said they've donated 6x more to the Dems and feel like they aren't being listened to as the Dems are now bought off by big corporations as well.

Mentioned Amazon screwing over their employees and Democrats not listening.

Maybe I'm an idiot but there are apparently millions of Americans that believe in climate change, fair pay, quality education and healthcare for all Americans. 

Kamala saying we are gonna have the most lethal military in the world and here's Dick Cheney is dumb. I'm still gonna vote for Kamala though obviously.


Did he talk about the $36bn bailout the central states teamsters pension received from the Biden administration? If not, sounds like he should educate his members on that. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Biden's administration has been the most pro-labor administration since fucking FDR and Sean O'Brien is probably being blackmailed by Trump. 

He said Biden was awesome for unions. He's not bought off by Trump he just wants unionization across the USA.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

Bear in mind I agree with you and @wildcat09 (I think the polls are over-representing Trump’s support), but honestly that position isn’t helpful in trying to maintain a healthy skepticism that this is all going to turn out okay.  
 

Anyway, I would posit that ground game, as we traditionally think of it, does matter, but it matters more to Dems.  The Republicans just have an advantage currently with a greater proportion of reliable voters.  

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Posted
Just now, LCHorn said:

he Republicans just have an advantage currently with a greater proportion of reliable voters.  

They have more *committed* voters, but *reliable* voters are college-educated, suburban and female.  3 demographics that Harris is doing better with than Biden.  Republicans dominated midterms for years on the back of college-educated and suburban voters, especially suburban women.  They always turn up to vote.

Those committed voters still have to show up.  That's why the ground game is important.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ground game fucking matters.  You have to get voter to the polls. 

Dems eschewed traditional ground game in 2020 because of COVID and look what happened.  @Bateshorn has mentioned this before. 

A lot of Trump's polling "leads" are based on extremely unreliable voters (young men, especially young Latino and black men, and WWC voters).  You have to be in contact with them to get them to the polls.  Trump has none of them - no canvassers, no ground game, nada. 

Because that costs money and we all know where the money for that is going. 

There's a reason the Dems are deploying like every famous black politician to Detroit, as well as putting in even more money to work the turnout machine, they realize you gotta knock those doors like 100 times to get low propensity voters to actually show up and do their thing. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Mentioned Amazon screwing over their employees and Democrats not listening.

 

He’s not wrong about Amazon.  I chose not to do this, but I could have had a $1.50 roll of tree marking tape delivered to me for free (as a Prime member) overnight last night.  There’s externalities clearly not getting captured by price, including creating a work environment for their delivery drivers that gives them accommodations for bathroom breaks.  

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Posted (edited)

Would love to shrink the window for campaigns down to 120 or 180 days, with the conferences and nominees selected about halfway through. At least the public facing portion. 
Americans don’t have the attention span for a 24 month campaign season, it’s a waste of resources. 

Same thing as laws or bylaws stating no political yard signs except within x days of an election. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
44 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Saw one of these today in North Raleigh, lol

IMG_0167.thumb.webp.45b0cea72c4dc844084bf7bb572f0c37.webp
 

it is remarkable how much more Harris/walz stuff there is. Raleigh is blue but it’s a coalition of just enough black people and j crew whites to outbalance the southern heritage whites. And as far as signs, I see more of the moms for liberty school board wackjobs than Trump.

I see upside down world is humming along nicely. Kamala was a prosecutor and DA, and Trump is a felon. Other than that, nailed it. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Bear in mind I agree with you and @wildcat09 (I think the polls are over-representing Trump’s support), but honestly that position isn’t helpful in trying to maintain a healthy skepticism that this is all going to turn out okay.  
 

Anyway, I would posit that ground game, as we traditionally think of it, does matter, but it matters more to Dems.  The Republicans just have an advantage currently with a greater proportion of reliable voters.  

That's not really the case anymore. They traded those voters for Trump-only voters, and even with Trump on the ballot many of those voters don't seem very enthused this year. His signs aren't everywhere, they're not holding stupid boat parades, they're not forming stupid convoys trying to run Harris campaign people off the road, etc. Shit, they're not even filling his rallies and those that do show up leave early. Trump doesn't have the energy any more so neither do they.

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Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Would love to shrink the window for campaigns down to 120 or 180 days, with the conferences and nominees selected about halfway through. At least the public facing portion. 
Americans don’t have the attention span for a 24 month campaign season, it’s a waste of resources. 
 

If Harris wins, it will be the biggest argument that a condensed 3.5 month campaign absolutely works.  But every state wants their special moment in the sun during the grueling 5-6 month primary season so they can make bank with tv ads, campaigns booking security details, hotels, etc., then we have 2 months until the conventions, then 3 months until the election.

And that's not even getting, like you said, into basically everyone who wants to run announcing the day after the midterms. 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

THAT'S THE FUCKING POINT. THE ENTIRE POINT OF TRUTH SOCIAL WAS DONALD TRUMP SAYING "FUCK IT, I'LL BUILD MY OWN AND EVERYONE WILL FOLLOW" AND NOBODY FOLLOWED. DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T BRING IN THE RATINGS.

You're being dense AF dude. Trump's a narcisisist, sure. He thought everyone would follow him, maybe. Becuase he's stupid. He also didn't have a fucking choice, no other platform would have him, and he saw a chance for Grift. Which has paid off handsomely for him, I might point out. But I digress. 

You're sitting here and saying the Superbowl getting 150 million eyeballs on NBC but for someone reason only 1 million eyeballs streaming exclusively on the Hallmark App proves that the Superbowl doesn't bring in the ratings is...it's something. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
1 hour ago, Horndog said:

I'd watch. 

sure sure,  but what would the ads be like?   My Final pillow? Taco Bell, all kinds of catsups/ketchups, oh and official MAGA mourning wear.

Posted

Trump's pollster (Fabrizio) internals have him up 1 in MI/WI/PA/NC.  That is uh, not really good, since internals are usually 3-4 points more favorable towards you than they should be.

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Posted
45 minutes ago, G650 said:

There's one of these in my neighborhood apparently as of yesterday, my wife mentioned it to me.

What'd she want you to do about it?   New house or old house?  Because that might make a difference.

Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

That's not really the case anymore. They traded those voters for Trump-only voters, and even with Trump on the ballot many of those voters don't seem very enthused this year. His signs aren't everywhere, they're not holding stupid boat parades, they're not forming stupid convoys trying to run Harris campaign people off the road, etc. Shit, they're not even filling his rallies and those that do show up leave early. Trump doesn't have the energy any more so neither do they.

Single anecdote but I saw a truck yesterday with 5 big flags on it:

marine corps

appeal to heaven

American flag

back the blue american flag 

Gadsden flag

have to think that person is an R voter, but no trump flag. 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, locodos said:

What'd she want you to do about it?   New house or old house?  Because that might make a difference.

 

Oh nothing, the actual quote was something along the lines of "Did you see the sign that shithead on the corner of Maryland and Caribbean put out now?" To which I said I hadn't because I came in the neighborhood the other way yesterday.

 

Edited by G650
Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Single anecdote but I saw a truck yesterday with 5 big flags on it:

marine corps

appeal to heaven

American flag

back the blue american flag 

Gadsden flag

have to think that person is an R voter, but no trump flag. 

Lol. 100% a trump voter and I'd argue several of those are worse than a Trump flag. 

Trumpers have become ashamed, even the strident ones. But they're still voting for him. 

Appeal to heaven:
 

Quote

In the 2020s, the flag was flown at events attended by various far-right groups including a Christian nationalist strand of Donald Trump's "Stop the Steal" movement.[20][21]

In May 2024, news outlets reported that the flag had been flown at the vacation home of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito in 2023. This drew media attention because of the flag's use by "Stop the Steal" supporters.[20][22][23] The justice stated that his wife had displayed the flag, referred to the historic background of the symbol, and refused to recuse himself from ongoing cases involving the 2020 United States presidential election.[24][25]

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.

The transphobia ad is the stock ad for live sports. I assume it tests well with the anti-lgbt men. 

on non-sports tv the anti-immigrant ads are the default. Scaring the least Hispanic part of the country that it’s just a matter of time until we’re overrun. I assume that’s why they pushed the Springfield story so hard. To scare white people that don’t know any brown people. 

Posted
Just now, The Dog said:

what the heck is that supposed to mean?

I read it as:

When we look back on this election, we'll remember that Democrats always panic, and Republicans even when getting pistol-whipped will insist they're going to win and that their policies are universally popular. But today is not the day for reflection, today is the day that democrats panic. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean I'm glad you guys aren't seeing as much Trump stuff out, but that shit is on steroids here this year.

In the home of Pat Robertson, the 700 club, CBN university, Jerry Fallwell, Edgar Casey, and a shit load of Military?

Someone get the fainting couch!  

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Posted (edited)

Lulz, a reporter asked Biden about Trump's FEMA lies. "Get a life man, and help these people."

Edit: That was poorly written. Biden was saying that of Trump, not the reporter. Which would have also been funny.

Edited by Red Five
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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean I'm glad you guys aren't seeing as much Trump stuff out, but that shit is on steroids here this year.

Iirc you’re in Virginia Beach or Nahfuck or something like that - are you surrounded by military? Although based on the value of your  most expensive guitar I’d also assume you’re not in a neighborhood with a camaro in every driveway.

Edited by Celery Man
Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks.  biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been.  Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks?  biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.

My thought:

2016 was a grotesque car wreck the likes of which we had never seen. Eyeballs and clicks were baked in.

2020 Trump was the incumbent and again it was unprecedented with everyone wondering what was going to happen. Eyeballs and clicks were baked in.

2024 Fatigue. Everyone knows what Trump is and you are either voting for him or not. The eyeballs and clicks are not baked in. UNLESS pundits tell us we have a horse race.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, locodos said:

In the home of Pat Robertson, the 700 club, CBN university, Jerry Fallwell, Edgar Casey, and a shit load of Military?

Someone get the fainting couch!  

 

Yeah a lot of surprised pickachu faces.

 

My neighbor down the street at my current place has this 40' Fountain, which I'm not sure he actually owns as I know his general situation, emblazoned with massive letters saying Trump Train. He has been strategically placing it all over town. Came by on water by my new house last weekend.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Dems don’t need to be “clear” about their position on this because no one is talking about it. 

If you watch football in PA you’d think it was the single biggest issue in this election. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

My neighbor down the street at my current place has this 40' Fountain, which I'm not sure he actually owns as I know his general situation, emblazoned with massive letters saying Trump Train. He has been strategically placing it all over town. Came by on water by my new house last weekend.

Well you don't expect him to take it offshore do you?  It's rough out there.  It's damned near impossible to keep the strippers and your toupee in the boat!

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Iirc you’re in Virginia Beach or Nahfuck or something like that - are you surrounded by military? Although based on the value of your  most expensive guitar I’d also assume you’re not in a neighborhood with a camaro in every driveway.

 

Virginia Beach. I'm actually in the process of moving as we speak, we just bought a house around the corner on the water, but my current neighborhood probably has a median house price of 750k these days I'd say? So no one is hanging an engine block from the tree in the front yard, no. But my neighbor on the right has MAGA paraphernalia out 24/7 since 2016, and there's a couple other big Trumpers. If I took a wild guess I'd say my hood was 60/40 R/D. It's pretty much upper middle land.

 

We do have a lot of military in the region, 7 bases in a 60 mile radius or so, but the oceanfront is not as much a hotbed of that. Shore Dr., where @locodos is from, and Red Mill which is south and inland a bit are the real military loci.



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