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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
3 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

I know folks who are left and always have been and are not voting because of issues in the Middle East and Israel.  It is maddening to me.

For her it's distrust of Harris.  It's certainly maddening.  It won't surprise me if she doesn't vote.  At least it's here in Texas where it probably doesn't matter, but that message is infecting people nationwide.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree they feel a bit strange but it's entirely believable that after 8 years of Trump we are going to see Harris wipe the floor with him even more than usual in California, New York, and other deep blue states.

 

39 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Understood, I just think it's likelier as an explanation. As you point out the state versus national polls don't make sense. I'm just saying that the whole blue states getting redder theory might be the thing that's wrong once votes are counted. People are migrating to where they agree with the politics, not away from those places. 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. It's plausible, perhaps even the base case if you lean into polling, that Trump could see a boost in the national popular vote but see his relative EC advantage eroded because Harris has held up better among whites - WI, MI, PA, and NE-2 are the first path to 270 and all notably whiter than the nation overall.

Side note, I think New Mexico could use more polling because of this. It hasn't been polled in a month. Harris has held a decent lead in the polls that do exist so I'm not saying it's going to flip or anything but it would be nice to get a poll or two to see where it stands now.

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Posted
38 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Yeah, so he said "I know many folks like me they cant stand him but the threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore" so I just shot him an e-mail asking about this.

He's not a Trumper - never really acted like a Trumper or help Trumpy beliefs.  My guess is that he is looking through a misinformed financial lens and making a decision based on that.

Y'all... I've had no problem unfriending and ignoring friends who went off the MAGA rails.  I block them out and move on because they're lost.  This friend is not like that which is why it is so confusing and, as I said, disappointing to see the stance he is taking.  I'll work on him.  He is a close friend - I'm not kicking him to the curb... not until the brown shirts come for us... 

Nervous Zac Efron GIF

So he didn't say he knew that Trump was evil. That's an important distinction. 

If it truly is finanical, send 20 clips of trump not being able to answer ANY direct question. Ukraine. Health Plan. Whatever. Start with the economic forum yesterday. 

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. It's plausible, perhaps even the base case if you lean into polling, that Trump could see a boost in the national popular vote but see his relative EC advantage eroded because Harris has held up better among whites - WI, MI, PA, and NE-2 are the first path to 270 and all notably whiter than the nation overall.

Side note, I think New Mexico could use more polling because of this. It hasn't been polled in a month. Harris has held a decent lead in the polls that do exist so I'm not saying it's going to flip or anything but it would be nice to get a poll or two to see where it stands now.

@Pancho and @Thatguy would like a word with you, and they demand to see your math. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I want to blow right through 400k

Henry Winkler Reaction GIF by HBO

I saw someone speculate 500k is not out of the realm of possibility, though the thinking is it will slow down closer to Election Day. But who knows 

Posted

Good closing argument….

Trump’s closing message to a number of different groups increasingly includes this harsh line: Members of the group not voting for him need to have their “head examined.”

“Any African American or Hispanic that votes for Kamala … you got to have your head examined,” Trump said during an Atlanta rally Tuesday night. “They are screwing you.”

It’s part of an ongoing trend of the former president telling specific demographic groups they deserve of ridicule or have something wrong with their mental state if they’re not voting for him, one that has picked up in a recent weeks.

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Posted
24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. I

 

With Latinos, hmmmm yes. With Blacks?

No Way Kg GIF by SHOWTIME Sports

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Posted
12 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

I don't know, man.  I know them and have been very close for 30 years.  I just try to unfuck them.  That's all.  If it works, it's a win.

 

12 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

 

Happy for you that it's all so clear and simple.  

 

I try to stand for something more than companionship and shared experience. It's not easy to cut loose old friends, but integrity comes first if I'm to be a valuable friend myself.

I don't countenance disregard for other people and the country among persons that I call friends. It diminishes my self-opinion and overall worth. The most profound argument that I can make about another person's value is withdrawing my friendship which, I hope, means something.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Pancho said:

No.

You’re sort of talking about acculturation, not assimilation.

I had to look this up...   I think he's actually referring to amalgamation.  I don't care what it's called, I just want my Char Siu Bao and snow pea tips for breakfast, a Spicy Patty for lunch, and Lechon for dinner... 'merica!

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/acculturation

Quote

What is the difference between acculturation, assimilation, and amalgamation?

Acculturation is one of several forms of culture contact, and has a couple of closely related terms, including assimilation and amalgamation. Although all three of these words refer to changes due to contact between different cultures, there are notable differences between them. Acculturation is often tied to political conquest or expansion, and is applied to the process of change in beliefs or traditional practices that occurs when the cultural system of one group displaces that of another. Assimilation refers to the process through which individuals and groups of differing heritages acquire the basic habits, attitudes, and mode of life of an embracing culture. Amalgamation refers to a blending of cultures, rather than one group eliminating another (acculturation) or one group mixing itself into another (assimilation).

 

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Posted
29 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. It's plausible, perhaps even the base case if you lean into polling, that Trump could see a boost in the national popular vote but see his relative EC advantage eroded because Harris has held up better among whites - WI, MI, PA, and NE-2 are the first path to 270 and all notably whiter than the nation overall.

Side note, I think New Mexico could use more polling because of this. It hasn't been polled in a month. Harris has held a decent lead in the polls that do exist so I'm not saying it's going to flip or anything but it would be nice to get a poll or two to see where it stands now.

That's my whole point. Those polling results may very well be garbage. 

Posted
1 minute ago, bluto said:

FYI that Marist poll had Harris +5 natl… but Trump winning independents by 10. Make sense of that 

Don’t make no sense 

Posted
18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

@Pancho and @Thatguy would like a word with you, and they demand to see your math. 

 

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

With Latinos, hmmmm yes. With Blacks?

No Way Kg GIF by SHOWTIME Sports

I mean, it's there in the polling. My point was to illustrate how you'd see Trump perform better in the national popular vote without an EC victory. We'll see if it pans out in a few weeks. I tend to agree Harris won't lose too much of the black vote, maybe a few percentage points relative to Biden due to churn in the electorate and the peeling off of younger men, but that's not really racially specific.

Posted
12 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Could you explain how (and when) these broken, proudly ignorant, hate-filled  bigots will have an epiphany and get un-fucked up and un-lost?

“Yeah, so you want to send the military against political opponents of your candidate and revoke the FCC license of any news that questions him? Interesting.  Man, the Horns look good this year. “

 I launch those old friends and tell them why.  

Friends are easy enough to change. It's the coworkers and family that I struggle with. Like my mom would just look me in the face and say that Trump doesn't really mean that and he was just taken out of context and that I watch too much CNN (I watch zero CNN).

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Marist has been all over the map. 

Harris winning 52-47 (0.5 points better than Biden) but they also have Trump doing:

  • 2 points better in Texas
  • 2 points worse in Ohio
  • 1.5 points better in Florida
  • 1.5 points better in Arizona
  • 1.5 points better in Georgia
  • 1.5 points worse in North Carolina
  • 2 points better in Pennsylvania
  • 0.5 points worse in Wisconsin
  • 2.5 points worse in Michigan

Granted, some of those are almost a month old, but there we go again - national polls show her doing as well (or better) than Biden, but somehow worse in almost every swing state

Youtube Red College Humor GIF by Bad Internet

National polls tend to be more accurate. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, bluto said:

FYI that Marist poll had Harris +5 natl… but Trump winning independents by 10. Make sense of that 

Sure.  There are no "independents."  There are people voting Democratic.  There are people voting MAGA.  And then there are people who are voting MAGA, but know that their choice is disgusting and socially unacceptable, so they call themselves "independents."

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Posted
3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

The lawfare that has been practiced by the current administration against Trump (and even against Musk by CA regulators) is the biggest threat to the rule of law not Trump. 

the naked gun facepalm GIF

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Posted
5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

suspending the statute of limitations in NY state for a year

Wait a minute. How is state-level legislation now "lawfare" vs "the will of the people" in this instance?

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-signs-adult-survivors-act

This was a legislative fix that at least 2,999 others needed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/nyregion/adult-survivors-act-lawsuits.html

If he thinks that's just part of some vast conspiracy, he needs his head examined.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

STOP POSTING NATIONAL POLL DATA!!!!!!!!

1.) you owe me a bourbon

2.) the national polls can give a snapshot into the overall race. something I’ve noticed over the last week is several polls are starting to “pull away” meaning I’m seeing less +1 and +2 and more +3 or +4 polls. That can indicate how she’s doing in swing states as well. Someone can correct me but there is some magic number that if Dems are up by nationally that’s an indicator they are going to win—I thought.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

National polls tend to be more accurate. 

I'm at the "I'm going to post the polls, but I don't believe them" phase because the whole TIPP drama last week with removing Philadelphia from the live voter screen of PA voters has me extremely skeptical of firms just doing whatever they want because they don't want to be wrong.

And as I have pointed out, and someone quantified, something like 40% of all polling in October so far as been partisan, right-wing polling from Insider Advantage, Patriot Polling, Trafalgar, Fabrizio, etc.  We are smackdab in the 2022 playbook - mid-October was when suddenly all those races shifted towards Republicans, such as PA-SEN, MI-GOV, etc., and they weren't even close in the end.  They were all pretty much wrong, because the averages got fucked with by right-wing spam, but the narrative was set of a "red wave" 

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Posted
OK... so I asked more about it and am working on countering his arguments... he's an attorney if that provides any perspective or maybe it doesn't mean anything because what does these days with Trump supporters?
I asked why she presented a threat to civilization...
"The lawfare that has been practiced by the current administration against Trump (and even against Musk by CA regulators) is the biggest threat to the rule of law not Trump.  Show me the man and I'll find you the crime.  There is a far bigger threat to the rule of law state than Mr. Trump."
So I responded back with consequences of his actions, history of being crooked, skirting rules, breaking laws, grifter, blah blah blah, etc.  I mentioned Musk is not on the ballot.  I also referenced Mark Milley, Mattis, most of his cabinet, etc. coming out against him.
Response
"So you are telling me that you don't think suspending the statute of limitations in NY state for a year so that a lady could file a claim against Trump from 1975 over a Bergdorff Goodman alleged rape that she told no one about and didn't report to the police before having the SOL revert back to its normal 10-year period is not something out of the KGB playbook.  Show me the man and I'll find you the crime.  The legislature in that instance particularly enacted this legislation to get Trump."
Can't speak to the background on the E. Jean Carroll case but why are we talking about a state court case here?  
AND he then said I was being influenced by TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome)
F me... 
Anyway, I dug up our WhatsApp conversation from January 10, 2021 where he admitted I was right about him the whole time.   Screenshot and sent to him.  I told you... you eventually saw through him, you can still see through him.  Best I can do is throw his words back in his face.

Because he's a misogynistic racist. The brains of these people are gone, and they're never coming back. Let them go.
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Posted
11 minutes ago, texasdago said:

"So you are telling me that you don't think suspending the statute of limitations in NY state for a year so that a lady could file a claim against Trump from 1975 over a Bergdorff Goodman alleged rape that she told no one about and didn't report to the police before having the SOL revert back to its normal 10-year period is not something out of the KGB playbook."

What?  First off, the alleged assault occurred in 1996, not 1975.  Beyond that, does the criminal statute of limitations have any bearing on a civil case?  (Not a lawyer . . . but your friend is.)

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Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:

You don't start.  You cut off all contact with that person, because he's an irredeemable piece of shit.

The problem here is that we've been confronted with slap-you-in-the-face evidence that 45% of our fellow countrymen are irredeemable pieces of shit.  It sucks. But that doesn't make it any less true.

I don't want to call a POS when there is a healthy chunk of misinformation that has just poisoned the brains of people. Smart people. I do think the POS quotient is high, but there's a healthy chunk of "Flat out stupid AF" and "poisoned by misnformation and our failed media system." Big chunks. 

I also think him throwing his words back at him is a good tactic, but he'll just respond with "and then I watched this weaponized justice department do it's work."

Posted
Just now, TexEx15 said:

Thanks, Kamala!

 

Protect Lina Khan at all costs.

I love watching Chamber of Commerce jagoffs whine about her in the business press. Fuck 'em.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

1.) you owe me a bourbon

2.) the national polls can give a snapshot into the overall race. something I’ve noticed over the last week is several polls are starting to “pull away” meaning I’m seeing less +1 and +2 and more +3 or +4 polls. That can indicate how she’s doing in swing states as well. Someone can correct me but there is some magic number that if Dems are up by nationally that’s an indicator they are going to win—I thought.

Listen, as long as you're doing the work, I mean, feel free to give us a line graph of the different polls and how they've moved in the past few weeks. 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I don't want to call a POS when there is a healthy chunk of misinformation that has just poisoned the brains of people. Smart people. I do think the POS quotient is high, but there's a healthy chunk of "Flat out stupid AF" and "poisoned by misnformation and our failed media system." Big chunks. 

I also think him throwing his words back at him is a good tactic, but he'll just respond with "and then I watched this weaponized justice department do it's work."

Going to keep throwing his words back at him.   I'll find more.

Edit:  added the following that Trump and his ilk are scaremongering.  Trying to get everyone all up in arms over perceived threats.  Mentioned how the world did not end under the Biden administration like Trump said.  All the calamities he predicted did not come to fruition.  Obama didn't confiscate everyone's guns.  All the fearmongering from Republicans over Obama and Trump was pure BS.  Stop buying into it.  

Edited by texasdago
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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I don't want to call a POS when there is a healthy chunk of misinformation that has just poisoned the brains of people. Smart people. I do think the POS quotient is high, but there's a healthy chunk of "Flat out stupid AF" and "poisoned by misnformation and our failed media system." Big chunks. 

I also think him throwing his words back at him is a good tactic, but he'll just respond with "and then I watched this weaponized justice department do it's work."

I tried to think the way you did.  But it's over.  We're too far gone.

Metaphorically, if it's 1939 and you're a German happily voting for the Nazi party, I don't care if you got there because you've always thought jews are evil and should be exterminated, you got there because you fell for a line of bullshit, you got there because you ignore the anti-semitism and focus on "tax policy," you got there because your dad votes Nazi so you'll vote Nazi.  We are past the time where any distinction can or should matter.  You've chosen a path that will harm all of us.  And you have to be stopped, shamed, ostracized, and if possible, ruined.  You need to be shoved into a hole of irrelevancy.

The time to "fix them" has come and gone.  We are now solely in the time of "fight them in every way, at every turn, without pause.  Waste no time on anything else."

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Posted
12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What a fucking boatload of malarky...I don't even know where to start. A man talking about the rule of law in favor of a guy who gassed peaceful protestors for a photo-op...a man talking the rule of law for someone who has said he'll suspend the laws to be a dictator on day one. A man talking about the rule of law who sent a mob at the capital when an election didn't go his way. A man who demonstably attempted to send fake electors. A twice impeached president with audio of a phone call demanding the GA secretary of state to find him 11k votes. The rule of law for a man who said legal citizens aren't legal citizens becuase they are also immigrants. The rule of law for a man who is endorsed by project 2025. The rule of law for a man who didn't approve FEMA payments for a state that didn't bend the knee. 

I don't even know where to start. 

There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The time to "fix them" has come and gone.  We are now solely in the time of "fight them in every way, at every turn, without pause.  Waste no time on anything else."

The silver lining (if there is any) is that he in CO and his vote doesn't mean jack shit in the grand scheme of things.  If I can just get him to not vote at all... sew enough doubt... then I've done my job (for now)

By the way, if you ever want to read a book on how painting an entire people as genetically deficient, evil, etc. etc. can impact a country's policy, this is a sobering book...

https://www.amazon.com/Life-Unworthy-Hitlers-Germany-Republic/dp/0465098460

Edited by texasdago
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://www.georgiavotes.com/

Georgia Day 1

Almost 30% black - Souls to the Polls is this weekend
54% female
Pretty old, but it's not like the young people to wait until the last minute... (sarcasm, we are such fucking procrastinators)
14.2% of the voters so far did not vote in 2020 - Almost 70% were 18-39

30% is more or less the usual composition, is it not?

Posted
23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What a fucking boatload of malarky...I don't even know where to start. A man talking about the rule of law in favor of a guy who gassed peaceful protestors for a photo-op...a man talking the rule of law for someone who has said he'll suspend the laws to be a dictator on day one. A man talking about the rule of law who sent a mob at the capital when an election didn't go his way. A man who demonstably attempted to send fake electors. A twice impeached president with audio of a phone call demanding the GA secretary of state to find him 11k votes. The rule of law for a man who said legal citizens aren't legal citizens becuase they are also immigrants. The rule of law for a man who is endorsed by project 2025. The rule of law for a man who didn't approve FEMA payments for a state that didn't bend the knee. 

I don't even know where to start. 

All of this -- and his appeasement of Putin and holding back aid to Ukraine unless it dug up dirt on political opponent Biden. I don't want to downplay his rape of E Jean Carroll in any way but that deal is like #153 (if even that high) on the list of shitty things Trump's ass is on the line for -- it was just adjudicated first. His other actions are much, much more dangerous to American Democracy and his ass needs to be fired into the sun. His other transgressions have and will effect billions of lives.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

And yes, Black people treat Souls to the Polls like any other major service—church anniversary, funeral, pastor’s anniversary 

There will be lunch served and it will be the best fried chicken, green beans, mashed potatoes, corn, pecan pie, greens, 7-up cake, taco salad, meatloaf, sweet potatoes, sweet potato pie, and sweet tea you’ve ever eaten. 

 

But will it start on time?

I kid, I kid....

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