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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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So plenty of commercials tonight about everybody in Texas having their gender forcibly changed.

And Black men apparently hate Kamala because she's giving their money to trans people.

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12 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Amazing that Trump/Cruz have nothing besides punching down on Trans people. 
 

fucking losers. 

It does say a lot though - it means they aren't getting traction with their base on any other issues - economy, the border, Kamala's race, etc.

All they have is trans people.

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I’m choosing to believe that a Harris win means Texas cannot win a title this year. I will take it, but if we lose and she does also, I’m not going to handle it well. 

Edited by Biff Tannen
Alright God! Lemme have it!

42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

IMG_3594.jpeg.ec54f2337cb7a7c755ad639ed9611e06.jpeg

To be fair, is that good? Bad? Numbers are just social constructs without more! (Sorry it’s halftime and I’m drunk and salty)

31 minutes ago, achooloco said:

To be fair, is that good? Bad? Numbers are just social constructs without more! (Sorry it’s halftime and I’m drunk and salty)

I'll do a break down on numbers once the data dumps hits tomorrow morning (the dump hits between 1 and 5 am local time).  Basically, right now it all points to good news.  We know historically that the early vote heavily favors a Democratic turnout.  The biggest takeaway as of this morning was that women had outvoted men by 130k, which we know is also generally in our favor, and outpaces 2020.  The information that is released is not partisan in nature, i.e., it doesn't distinguish between R, D, or Indy votes.  With that in mind, the best we can do is make educated guesses based on prior history.  

The Arnold Palmer Halloween costume gonna be all the rage 

Edited by Ted Lange

6 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

The Arnold Palmer Halloween costume gonna be all the rage 

happy-halloweenie-penis-costume-lightwei

2 hours ago, achooloco said:

To be fair, is that good? Bad? Numbers are just social constructs without more! (Sorry it’s halftime and I’m drunk and salty)

My ignorant, drunk and salty reply is that only one candidate seems to have enthusiasm right now. If lots of people are enthusiastically voting, then more of that enthused share are going to be for Harris.

2 hours ago, achooloco said:

To be fair, is that good? Bad? Numbers are just social constructs without more! (Sorry it’s halftime and I’m drunk and salty)

Quote

More than 129,000 voters have registered in Georgia since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, which could be a good sign for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The generally understood belief is that people who registered to vote for the first time are motivated to vote - in that election at least.  Coupled with the increase in female demographic new registration - and increase number of female early voters - it points toward good news for Democrats.

It does not tell us whether it will be good enough news.

MAGA: Donald Trump talks about Arnold Palmer's dick size just like me!

33 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The generally understood belief is that people who registered to vote for the first time are motivated to vote - in that election at least.  Coupled with the increase in female demographic new registration - and increase number of female early voters - it points toward good news for Democrats.

It does not tell us whether it will be good enough news.

There's a reason all the PACs have been trying to tailor their pro-Trump messages to black men. Their data is telling them it could be the difference, and the fact Kamala's campaign has been returning fire in that arena tells me there's probably something to that. Someone is betting big on transphobia being a motivating or demoralizing factor.

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

MAGA: Donald Trump talks about Arnold Palmer's dick size just like me!

We'll have forgotten all about this by Monday, by the way.

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

My ignorant, drunk and salty reply is that only one candidate seems to have enthusiasm right now. If lots of people are enthusiastically voting, then more of that enthused share are going to be for Harris.

From your message board fingers to god’s ears. We need to win but this stress is unhealthy. Salud! (As I drink to forget the 30-15 loss)

23 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

We'll have forgotten all about this by Monday, by the way.

I'm not going to let some of my older relatives forget about it.

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm not going to let some of my older relatives forget about it.

They're gonna start spittin in your jello salad.

6 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Arnold Palmer is rolling over in his grave having this fuck bring him up in one of his stupid fucking rallies. Go slobber all over Jack's knob. He's into it.

 

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I'll do a break down on numbers once the data dumps hits tomorrow morning (the dump hits between 1 and 5 am local time).  Basically, right now it all points to good news.  We know historically that the early vote heavily favors a Democratic turnout.  The biggest takeaway as of this morning was that women had outvoted men by 130k, which we know is also generally in our favor, and outpaces 2020.  The information that is released is not partisan in nature, i.e., it doesn't distinguish between R, D, or Indy votes.  With that in mind, the best we can do is make educated guesses based on prior history.  

Judge Judy Ain'T Got Time For That GIF - Clock Watch Hurry Up - Discover &  Share GIFs

10 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

image.jpeg.6587a473fac510a0b69070d978aa2460.jpeg image.png.c04d123d90f8e06aa361cc3bb02f8ed3.png

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On 10/18/2024 at 6:30 PM, mdmost said:

Don't blame me. Blame Ted Cruz. 

 

On 10/18/2024 at 6:33 PM, cactusflinthead said:

That fucker better not be anywhere near Austin. 

TEd Cruz was at the game last night, wasn't he.

 

On 10/18/2024 at 8:36 PM, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

Usha's "white name" is Jill?

Edited by TexasEd

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7 hours ago, Redneck Mutha said:

Judge Judy Ain'T Got Time For That GIF - Clock Watch Hurry Up - Discover &  Share GIFs

Keep your pants on.

Overnight takeaways from Georgia Data Drop:

1.  1.378 Million have now cast votes

2.  Women outpace men by 145k.  A percentage of 55 to 45

3.  Non 2020 voters represent 209k.  The 65 plus crowd stays stagnant at 48k, whereas the 18 to 29 is at 63k  (this a a 14k shift younger from yesterday).  

4.  Fortress Atlanta - Dekalb County 93k have now voted, representing 16% of the 2020 output, Fulton County - 156k have votes, representing 17% of the 2020 output.

Deeper dive on counties:

1.  Clayton County (South Metro Atlanta) - 31k of votes, 15% of 2020 totals.  This is the county that in all likelihood saved democracy and won Georgia in 2020.  For those interested, Clayton has for years been economically depressed and downtrodden (the wealth in Atlanta is historically to the north, lots of reasons, and that is changing some).  At any rate, prior to Stacy Abrams, there was virtually no political engagement from this area.  in 2020, over 90k of Democratic votes were cast.  Quite obviously a major turning point and success story.  Political engagement seems on the margin with metro Atlanta, this is outstanding news. 

2.  Cobb County - 100k votes cast, 17% of 2020 output.  Virtually the exact opposite of Clayton County, on the Northwest side of Atlanta, and a long Republican stronghold that went blue in 2020 and 2022.  I expect the margin to slightly increase for Democrats here.  It won't be much, but this was critical.  Changing demographics and urbanization of the area is behind this.

3.  Gwinnett County - 96k votes cast 15k of 2020 output.  Northeast Atlanta county that started going blue about 12 years ago and has continued to trend this way.  

 

I expect all of the above counties to surpass their output from 2020.  Each has seen tremendous growth in the past 4 years.  

On 10/19/2024 at 2:19 AM, tx 3 putt said:

 

michigan muslims have to be high on stephen millers to do list of naturalized citizens 

His Goebbels list 

20 hours ago, chainsaw said:

 

20 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I have another hypothesis about Trump door knocking (the GOTV kind, not the post-inauguration Gestapo kind).

Accepting the premise that Likely Trump voters are more paranoid and more racist than the typical American, and the premise that an outsourced team is more likely to consist of young people of color, common sense tells me that these interactions might not go as well as Musk would hope, which would lead to high turnover and low morale. So these guys finding ways to juice their stats is not at all surprising.

Carry on, Musk.

I'm betting there is institutional fraud here.  You have to launder that campaign cash somehow.

Sign report from 78665 in WilCo. 4 new Trump signs sprang up seemingly overnight. Current count is 6 to 3 for Harris, and 1 RFK true believer holdout.

I've only been here for about 20 months, but my precinct went fairly easily to Biden in 2020. Overall, not a ton of sign activity in my particular neighborhood.

I'm Kamala all the way, but I really wish we didn't mix politics with religion...

I doubt she’s going to be stumping at church. Anyway, that ship sailed a while ago. 

5 minutes ago, Walser said:

I'm Kamala all the way, but I really wish we didn't mix politics with religion...

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

10 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

As my wife notes: anti-atheism is one of the last remaining forms of acceptable discrimination. 

23 minutes ago, Walser said:

I'm Kamala all the way, but I really wish we didn't mix politics with religion...

 

Two things I keep coming back to

1) Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's, and unto God what is God's.

2) There is no compulsion in religion.

I should not be getting so worked up on a Sunday morning. 

I have a feeling when Jesus comes back he is not going to be as forgiving to the Christofascists as he was to the money changers in the Temple.

Edited by Walser

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37 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

The other thing to understand about this is just how much the church, here in Atlanta, is entwined with African American political activism.  This predates the civil rights movement, and in turn the civil rights movement has it's origin in black church here in Atlanta.  Hell, I'd be more concerned if Kamala weren't courting these voters and community leaders.  I'm a hardened atheist, but I get this.  

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45 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Religion is far too important to a huge portion of this country that you can't avoid them mixing. You cannot win without playing up the God card and motivating the religious group. 

Unless you're a Republican. Then, you can do the absolute bare minimum, but the church will do the heavy lifting for you to make you seem godly and Bible-versed to the religious types. Turns out they have quite the knack for make believe.

8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The other thing to understand about this is just how much the church, here in Atlanta, is entwined with African American political activism.  This predates the civil rights movement, and in turn the civil rights movement has its origin in black church here in Atlanta.  Hell, I'd be more concerned if Kamala weren't courting these voters and community leaders.  I'm a hardened atheist, but I get this.  

Today’s ATL Souls to the Polls is probably the single most important vote event other than Election Day in Georgia. 

35 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I don’t love him dooming over one day of in person voting. But he does this often so I’m used to it 

Trump or Tramp? From a guy with 7 kids from 6 different women? But please remind me how the libs are destroying the nuclear family. 

Edited by mdmost

JR’s actual blog says Dems are currently matching their registration in Clark so far and outpacing their registration in Washoe.

Considering nationwide that independents are younger, POCs or moderate Republicans, it’s a safe assumption that they favor Harris 

2 hours ago, TexasEd said:

I'm betting there is institutional fraud here.  You have to launder that campaign cash somehow.

I think it's likely just normal, everyday arrogance and incompetence endemic to the tech bro culture.  Musk is outsourcing these efforts.  I guarantee the winning presentations included the terms "disruptors", "data-driven", and "six sigma." The superPAC has previously fired In Field Strategies in Florida (Rolling Stone) and the September Group in Nevada/Arizona (The Guardian)".  Not surprisingly, Musk's SuperPAC is poorly run and surrounds itself with poorly run vendors.  It gives me some solace that the world's richest man throwing money at Trump's campaign is about as effective as throwing it at a literal dumpster fire. They don't understand regular people, which makes it impossible to manage canvassing, which is just regular people talking to regular people.  

 

On 10/18/2024 at 5:19 PM, Ted Lange said:

If someone is voting for the first time they are eligible in November all they’ve known is Trump.  Their whole political frame of reference is based on having a lunatic like Trump at the top of the ticket for one party.   It’s their normal. 

Now compare Musk's / Trump's campaign against Harris's.  It is supercharged by young people, who have known Trump since before high school.  They are clever, undaunted, and fully committed.  This isn't just about a paycheck for them.  I have high hopes for this generation. 

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

them.  I have high hopes for this generation. 

princess-bride-disappointment.png
 

And to continue the princess bride theme:

image-asset.gif
(Is trump selling anything?)

Edited by Pato del Muerto

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Received ballot here in WA Friday and will drop off tomorrow. Definitely not a swing state (Seattle was D+84 on 91% turnout in 2020), but I'm sure the 12 EVs will be appreciated on Election Day. 

A little bit about how it works here for those of you doing the work to get people to the polls, early voting, and the like. WA was the second fully vote by mail state and has been such for 20 or so years. There are in-person voting centers if you need, or if you want to register - you can register and vote until the polls close at 8pm on election day. There are also drop boxes, some 80 in my county - 2 within 5 minutes of me, and which I'll use rather than the mail. You can sign up for texts that let you know when your ballot is received, counted, etc. Ballots mailed or dropped by 8pm election day are counted.

Thanks to all of you doing the hard work in TX, GA and elsewhere - although I hope someday all states make exercising the right to vote as easy as it is here; even the R candidate for governor has been doing GOTV spots - y'all are making the difference in places where they really don't want people to vote. Believe me, it's appreciated here.

7 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Received ballot here in WA Friday and will drop off tomorrow. Definitely not a swing state (Seattle was D+84 on 91% turnout in 2020), but I'm sure the 12 EVs will be appreciated on Election Day. 

A little bit about how it works here for those of you doing the work to get people to the polls, early voting, and the like. WA was the second fully vote by mail state and has been such for 20 or so years. There are in-person voting centers if you need, or if you want to register - you can register and vote until the polls close at 8pm on election day. There are also drop boxes, some 80 in my county - 2 within 5 minutes of me, and which I'll use rather than the mail. You can sign up for texts that let you know when your ballot is received, counted, etc. Ballots mailed or dropped by 8pm election day are counted.

Thanks to all of you doing the hard work in TX, GA and elsewhere - although I hope someday all states make exercising the right to vote as easy as it is here; even the R candidate for governor has been doing GOTV spots - y'all are making the difference in places where they really don't want people to vote. Believe me, it's appreciated here.

I’m in Snohomish co, haven’t looked at demos to see if local races are competitive or not and in which direction.  Got my ballot yesterday and will be completing it today. 
 

Further color for WA state registration, you can register online until like 5 days before Election Day and then in person only thru Election Day. I assume this is a fraud prevention measure.  I think Texas and others are dumb and unconstitutional for having registration dates so far out.  Every citizen in the country should have the opportunity to register up through Election Day, even if it becomes increasingly inconvenient to do so as that date approaches.  Encourage early registration, allow for late. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

 

lucious lyon wtf GIF

GOP is definitely pushing early voting more - I assume they want to bank votes because Trump is clearly in cognitive decline and his health is failing. Don’t want to make them wait and then he strokes out next week or the week after 

The other thing to note - be wary of anyone screaming that the early vote is evidence of a red wave. If we learned anything in 2022, it was the vast number of Dems who switched to voting on Election Day.  It is NOT 2020 and no Covid, so it’s hard to make 1:1 comparisons to 2020 EV turnout 

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26 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Received ballot here in WA Friday and will drop off tomorrow.

 

21 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m in Snohomish co... Got my ballot yesterday and will be completing it today

Dropped mine off in the box on Friday morning 

463484638_10102007238549736_6879404763348000021_n.webp

37 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Now compare Musk's / Trump's campaign against Harris's.  It is supercharged by young people, who have known Trump since before high school.  They are clever, undaunted, and fully committed.  This isn't just about a paycheck for them.  I have high hopes for this generation. 

30 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And to continue the princess bride theme

Musk and Trump’s vendors are going to knock on a door, ask if they’ve heard of Trump, if they are going to vote, and maybe one or two other things. These are people that are stuck with this job and just trying to hit the quota so they can get paid, and fudging their numbers when they can (including standing on the sidewalk and deciding they aren’t home),

Harris’s door knockers are going to be like fucking cross-fitters or Mormons or desktop Linux users and will do everything they can to sell the person on showing up to vote and why it’s crucial to the country’s future,

This is very simplistic, but this is my take. Trump was always bad Trump, but only recently has he become clearly crazy deranged, even more racist, and authoritarian and vengeful.  Only recently does he wander around for 20 minutes dancing on stage and talk about Palmer’s genitals.

We got a look at this in 2020 and said, “no thank you.”.  Even though the cult does not care what he does, I have to think that the growing number of independents look at that and think about how much they want four more years of it.    

The short version is I think that crazy dementia Trump will turn off enough independents that those numbers will shift even more Democratic than 2020.  5% maybe. 

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