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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
Just now, Da Fino said:

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

The new mozzarella sticks are superior. I always thought the original chicken crispers were not very crisper. 

Who gives a shit about ground peppercorn hamberder, you got the 3 for me mother fucker!

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I've always thought her best observation was when she points out these pollster are always using the last election to make things fit instead of looking where things are going.

Yes, she has mentioned specifically she just asks "are you voting this year?" and doesn't really worry about if you voted in the last election, or last 2 elections, etc.

That's basically how she got Trump 2016 and Obama 2008 caucus results. 

Edit: 

Even Silver has called out Emerson for being the biggest herders in the industry. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?
I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.
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Posted
18 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Minor point. But a "cuck" would know, that's the point of their fetish. The entire point of Cheung's attempt at an insult is negated, just like the disaster of a campaign he works for will be tomorrow. 

I guess you could argue that in public, but then you're just gonna be that guy in your neighborhood that is an expert in cuckoldry.

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Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

The new mozzarella sticks are superior. I always thought the original chicken crispers were not very crisper. 

Who gives a shit about ground peppercorn hamberder, you got the 3 for me mother fucker!

Fair. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

If the Senate is going to be 51+ Dem on Jan. 6, sure. There won't be a VP if she's POTUS, so a 50/50 split or worse only invites more fuckery.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

Yep.  After all, Harris has said that an intruder in her home is getting shot.  I don't think she'd fuck around with another insurrection.

Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Trump campaign:

Low energy
Empty rallies
Rushing out memos and polls from junk pollsters to offset Selzer, or even fake polls (Ryan Fournier)
"Please vote or I'm in big trouble"
Relying on the lowest propensity voters (young men) to show up and save him
Already calling it rigged, Dems cheating, etc.
Already having campaign leaks shifting blame
Insiders in the GOP already blasting warning bells about women/senior women abandoning Trump
No ground game

Harris campaign:

Big (dick) energy
Packed rallies in swing states
No leaking, no backstabbing (yet)
Know they have the highest propensity voters banked already (older women, young women, college educated voters, black voters)
Pure confidence from the likes of Nancy Pelosi, David Plouffe, etc. 
No one sounding the warnings about lack of enthusiasm, ground game, etc. (no 2016 Debbie Dingell sounding the alarms)
Such a huge ground game, they've had to turn away people 

Counter Argument - Sushi

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Minor point. But a "cuck" would know, that's the point of their fetish. The entire point of Cheung's attempt at an insult is negated, just like the disaster of a campaign he works for will be tomorrow. 

I feel certain Steven Cheung knows the cuck world pretty well. 

 

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Posted

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day.

Things said in October 2020 when she released her poll that went fully against the polling CW that Iowa was in play for Biden. 

(I also said that, and I was 100% wrong) 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
8 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

Ironically this would be a bad idea. This is one of those few times the Vice President is important.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:
36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:
seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

Considering how fucked our culture has become, it's not that baffling. Among many other terrible turns we have taken, the normalization of Trumps antics, the tolerance of the emergence of head-shaking groups like incels and the prevalence of "making libs cry" as a theory of governance has to be quite confusing for young people.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I guess you could argue that in public, but then you're just gonna be that guy in your neighborhood that is an expert in cuckoldry.

So your logic is that knowing what a nazi is makes me a nazi. Good one. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

It is misrepresenting the situation to suggest we are only talking about one poll result and nothing else. 

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Posted

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

It is misrepresenting the situation to suggest we are only talking about one poll result and nothing else. 

Also the conversation if her poll was Trump +7 or better would be totally different, because it is more “in line” with that pollsters think the election will go 

Just now, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

No, we do this in solidarity. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:
45 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:
seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

Youth is wasted on the young.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

When Dotard starts in with his "Come to DC on January 6th and fight like hell!" stuff he should probably be arrested. 

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

No. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

200.gif

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Da Fino said:

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

When we own one, they're all coming back!!!

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Posted
3 minutes ago, locodos said:

Yeah I get that the cohort is smaller.  The effect is made worse by systemically lower voter participation rates.   

a1-presidential.jpeg

I'm telling you that the young vote is out and strong. You keep telling me it isn't and then posting data showing it is.

Young people are turning out

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, locodos said:

Yeah I get that the cohort is smaller.  The effect is made worse by systemically lower voter participation rates.   

a1-presidential.jpeg

I think the issue is your original post didn't make sense in terms of generations.

 

I'd consider Gen Z to be 18-29 right now, millenials to be 30-44, gen x to be 45-59, with 60-65 being some weird grey area, and 65+ being boomers. 

As years go on the boomers are dying and their massive vote is reducing. Where as GenZ and millenials represent the biggest block of voters for the next 30-40 years. Gen X is essentially fucked in terms of vote power.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

I'm telling you that the young vote is out and strong. You keep telling me it isn't and then posting data showing it is.

Young people are turning out

Hope you're right, we will know in a few days

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Posted

"We rate pollsters based on how often they poll" is a warning to turn the other direction -- one of many 538 inadvertently provides -- and you ignore it at your peril. 

 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If someone sees the reasoning for Harris' crisscrossing travel schedule today, please post it.

There's an election tomorrow?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

My local favorite burger place will be identifying as a Chilis that night, can take it home and get to work watching Aubry Plaza being a lesbian witch on Disney+

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

There is no bigger pro Harris data point on the planet than Helobious saying Trump will win. 

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Posted
Just now, Evil Bill Obrien said:

My local favorite burger place will be identifying as a Chilis that night, can take it home and get to work watching Aubry Plaza being a lesbian witch on Disney+

Completed last week, well worth it, and I use "completed" in more ways than one, if you know what I mean . . . 

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