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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

 

14 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Those were feds

-every maga dipshit 

When I hear them say that Jan 6 was done by antifa, I ask why Trump keeps mentioning that he wants to pardon them,

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Posted

I have no idea where to put this, but those who listen to the POD shows, absolutely listen to the most recent one. Lovett just came back from filming some reality show for a few weeks. They break all the news to him that happened during that time, and it's incredible. 

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, troph said:

538 says dead heat, fundamentals favor biden.  also note while EC outcomes have flipped the projected 3% win for Biden in the popular vote has been stable for quite some time.

interesting interactive...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

After 2016 this guy’s evaluations are completely meaningless to me.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
11 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I have no idea where to put this, but those who listen to the POD shows, absolutely listen to the most recent one. Lovett just came back from filming some reality show for a few weeks. They break all the news to him that happened during that time, and it's incredible. 

image.gif.972a02f195a27b84ceb3609850d538bb.gif

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I have no idea where to put this, but those who listen to the POD shows, absolutely listen to the most recent one. Lovett just came back from filming some reality show for a few weeks. They break all the news to him that happened during that time, and it's incredible. 

As an avid Survivor fan....

 

cd46a96d-d54e-4b77-a010-16d6ec7908af_tex

(But yes, hilarious listen.)

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Posted
27 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Don't care, the brand is meaningless to me.

I mean, now he's just a bad pundit on Twitter with retard-level hot takes.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, now he's just a bad pundit on Twitter with retard-level hot takes.

In 2016 I was working late and 538 was all the rage so I had it up on my computer. At 8:00 or so it was still showing Hillary at like 80%. It was so horribly wrong and not something I'll ever forget. It's like if a restaurant served me a burger with a turd on it. Even if its under new management, I ain't going back, ever.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know what pisses me off?  That we got rid of all of those inflatable tanks.  As a kid, would I have fucking LOVED to have a US Army surplus inflatable Sherman tank decoy in my backyard?  You're goddamned right, it would have been my most treasured possession.

How...how old are you?

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Posted
7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

With Trump promising to end income tax on tips as a campaign gimmick, Biden should call Trump’s bluff.  Publicly proclaim it a great idea and ask Mike Johnson place it for a vote immediately.

see all the conservative head’s explode with a tax break only for the lower (mostly) income folks.

Why would Trump not want to give tax breaks immediately for the masses by waiting until 2025? 

I got just the guy for that:

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

How...how old are you?

Older than I want to be.  It would have been 30+ years old in my prime kid years, but shit, in that same era they were selling off a shitload of WWII era surplus Willys jeeps.  Woulda liked one of those, too (we bought a used Korean-era one when I was in high school and fixed it up as a "drive around the ranch drink beer and shoot guns" vehicle.  It was awesome...but a true army surplus jeep woulda been cooler).

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know what pisses me off?  That we got rid of all of those inflatable tanks.  As a kid, would I have fucking LOVED to have a US Army surplus inflatable Sherman tank decoy in my backyard?  You're goddamned right, it would have been my most treasured possession.

Only as a kid? Are you sure? 

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Posted

As much as I hate Jim Jordan, he wasn't laughing at Moskowitz. You could tell by his chuckle and body language, it was a sort of self depracating laughter at himself at the Comer.  Like "Oh shit, he's right...this is all fucking ridiculous."  I almost respect him for having the self-awareness to laugh like that, "Oh lord, seriously...what the fuck are we doing here?"  Most of the people up there have no self-awareness, but for 60 seconds, Jim Jordan was an almost a real human being.  Then he reverted and yielded back the balance of humanity.  

Posted
4 hours ago, Red Five said:

I have no idea where to put this, but those who listen to the POD shows, absolutely listen to the most recent one. Lovett just came back from filming some reality show for a few weeks. They break all the news to him that happened during that time, and it's incredible. 

His reaction to Alito and the flag incidents was the best.  And it shows how fucking insane it is.  Lovett deals with the GQP maga nonsense every day for his job.  And even he couldn't believe that happened.

Posted
52 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Please keep saying this

This is crazy but believe me it won't matter much to many Republican voters.  Many I know, that are completely dependent on Social Security, are of the same delusional ilk that they think he isn't talking about them or their benefits.  That's how fucking stupid this all is (and how stupid they are), in many cases, we are actually fighting to save these people from themselves.  I have to admit, that often times it makes me just want to throw my hands up and say fuck it.  

In a lot of cases, it's not fuck around and find out, it's fuck around and starve to death.  But it doesn't matter because they think he is talking about dems/minorities/gays/etc whose benefits it will apply to, not their own.  

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

No, the Republican Party is fine 

Trump +29 district that is going to end up being just a shade over R+10 tonight. That’s a big shift 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

This is crazy but believe me it won't matter much to many Republican voters.  Many I know, that are completely dependent on Social Security, are of the same delusional ilk that they think he isn't talking about them or their benefits.  That's how fucking stupid this all is (and how stupid they are), in many cases, we are actually fighting to save these people from themselves.  I have to admit, that often times it makes me just want to throw my hands up and say fuck it.  

In a lot of cases, it's not fuck around and find out, it's fuck around and starve to death.  But it doesn't matter because they think he is talking about dems/minorities/gays/etc whose benefits it will apply to, not their own.  

Perfect storm brewing.  The olds and dumbs are locked and loaded for R/Trump no matter what the fuck even Trump himself tells them.  Then the ‘I vote for what’s best for my family’ crowd is numb to more and more Trump is the new Hitler proof.  Combine that with Biden being a pretty shitty candidate and I’m actually believing Trump has a good chance, not just a chance.  I know, FML.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

No, the Republican Party is fine 

 

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Trump +29 district that is going to end up being just a shade over R+10 tonight. That’s a big shift 

 

40 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Yup

 

Excuse me. I’ve been told by all the polls that it is neck and neck or Trump is dominating. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Perfect storm brewing.  The olds and dumbs are locked and loaded for R/Trump no matter what the fuck even Trump himself tells them.  Then the ‘I vote for what’s best for my family’ crowd is numb to more and more Trump is the new Hitler proof.  Combine that with Biden being a pretty shitty candidate and I’m actually believing Trump has a good chance, not just a chance.  I know, FML.  

Head high, we will win, but these people are such a fucking beating.  

Posted
11 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Those guys post here as @Anastasis

Y'all just need to vote harder. And most importantly, never question the long term viability and functionality of the two party system and the war machine.  

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This is crazy but believe me it won't matter much to many Republican voters.  Many I know, that are completely dependent on Social Security, are of the same delusional ilk that they think he isn't talking about them or their benefits.  That's how fucking stupid this all is (and how stupid they are), in many cases, we are actually fighting to save these people from themselves.  I have to admit, that often times it makes me just want to throw my hands up and say fuck it.  

In a lot of cases, it's not fuck around and find out, it's fuck around and starve to death.  But it doesn't matter because they think he is talking about dems/minorities/gays/etc whose benefits it will apply to, not their own.  

That's about where I'm at.  I'm in the Republican target demographic and over the short term I'd be fine as we turn into apartheid nation.

Hopefully we'll see record turnout of normal, sane people of all stripes in November.

Edited by Bullneck
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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Trump +29 district that is going to end up being just a shade over R+10 tonight. That’s a big shift 

Yeah it was a shade under 10. 20 point swing left to a guy outspent a fraction of the GOP. In a very red district that is not well educated, before anyone gives the “Dems do well with high propensity educated voters so this doesn’t count”

Edited by Js1
Posted

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

Full agreement, my dude.  The data source I have showed OH06 had a total of 344K in 2020 so yesterday's turnout comparison was an even lower percentage.

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Posted
9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Y'all just need to vote harder. And most importantly, never question the long term viability and functionality of the two party system and the war machine.  

Yes, everyone here is fully onboard with the two party system we have and none of us want reforms 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

Special elections have historically been pretty decent predictors for the general election. 

if you want to ignore the data, do it.  But a 20 point shift left in a district by a guy who spent less than 50k against a state Senator in a Trump +29 district that ended up being R+8/9 in the end? 

Animated GIF

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Special elections have historically been pretty decent predictors for the general election. 

if you want to ignore the data, do it.  But a 20 point shift left in a district by a guy who spent less than 50k against a state Senator in a Trump +29 district that ended up being R+8/9 in the end? 

Animated GIF

Plus rep for the Sgt Schulz gif

I just don’t see that election as a very interesting data point. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

 

Excuse me. I’ve been told by all the polls that it is neck and neck or Trump is dominating. 

Scared and angry people are easily driven to read, click, share, donate and vote.

The exploitation of which would normally piss me right off.  But in this case, be terrified and vote like your kids' lives depend on it, because they just might.

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Posted
30 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

This argument makes sense for some districts, but this is one of the least educated districts (literally bottom 5%) in the entire country.  It's basically West Virginia with an Ohio zip code.

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Posted
46 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Why are we talking about margins in a special election?

There were 279,000 total votes in Ohio’s 6th District in 2022.

In the Special last night, there were 60,000 total votes.

The Ds should always perform better in low-turnout votes as educated voters turnout. There may be a slight D shift in that District but it will R +20 in the general.

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Ds in fact do not perform better in low turnout votes. 

Educated voters don't turnout higher than non educated voters if you are saying college educated. 

If you are pulling shit out of your ass and mistakenly calling engaged voters educated voters then you are still wrong, engaged voters do not have a strong bias R or D. 

This is just straight from personal observation, no data research at all, in my area it seems that special elections turn out the olds at a disproportionate level.  Basically, they pretty much all show up as per just about every election, the other voters don't.  Now that isn't to say that this applies across every district in the country, nor does it imply that every election isn't unique; however I do find that to be more plausible.  

If that does in fact appear to be the case, last night was pretty damning for Republicans.  Let's hope so. 

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