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2024 Presidential Election Thread


bolverk

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Half the vote is in from Florida and Trump is losing 1/5 of the vote in a closed primary

But sir, this is a Florida GOP vote.  We were told there would be no maths.  

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1 minute ago, YGIFS said:

But sir, this is a Florida GOP vote.  We were told there would be no maths.  

Look it’s not my fault that Marge can’t count 1/5 on her hoofs 

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10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Negative Nancy here but I hope that he doesn’t pull a Hillary and try to expand the map before locking up 270 EVs. 

Disagree- I agreed then and now with Howard Dean- Some places are obviously more important than others but all 50 states should be contested, and that starts with strong local candidate recruitment with locally relevant campaigns that can live off the land. 
Make them defend every inch. 
 

Texas is winnable- we have a state Democratic Party problem, not a demographic problem. 

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A rising tide lifts all boats - Biden will also be focusing on helping along Allred, whoever ends up running against Rick Scott in FL, Josh Stein in NC, statehouse Dems, local races, etc. 

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33 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Negative Nancy here but I hope that he doesn’t pull a Hillary and try to expand the map before locking up 270 EVs. 

Biden isn't going to completely ignore swing states like she did. Her campaign literally didn't set foot in either Michigan or Wisconsin (can't remember which). 

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11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Biden isn't going to completely ignore swing states like she did. Her campaign literally didn't set foot in either Michigan or Wisconsin (can't remember which). 

Don't forget he has very effective surrogates in both states - Evers and Whitmer.  Both states had GOP governors in 2016

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Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

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14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I just can’t make myself trust that those 20%, or a substantial portion thereof, will stay home or cross the aisle in November.  I need to see it happen to believe it.  

Except Dems have been killing the special elections and 2022 midterms with doing just that. Persuasion. The GOP is getting more extreme by the day.  

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21 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

Well, shit, this in the bag.  I guess I can stay home in November.

To me the wildcard is the nation states that benefit from a weakened U.S. with the means to influence the election. Obviously led by Russia.

 The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee investigation submitted the first in their five-volume 1,313-page report in July 2019. The committee concluded that the January 2017 intelligence community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed". The first volume also concluded that the assessment was "proper", learning from analysts that there was "no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions". The final and fifth volume, which was the result of three years of investigations, was released in August 2020,[8] ending one of the United States "highest-profile congressional inquiries".[9][10] The Committee report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.[9] 

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee[161] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.[162] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.[163] The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.[162]

Russia's path to victory in the Ukraine is through Donald Trump and conservative congress members that would stymie aid to Zelensky and leave NATO without a super-power's teeth.  They are going to go for broke in influencing this election, and as we've seen, you don't have to tilt the odds nationwide, just in a relatively small number of swing counties in a relatively small number of swing states.

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36 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

While not in the bag, it's a situation where it's Biden's to lose and if he plays it by the book, as analogy if he runs the ball 3 times in a row and doesn't try to get cute and throw it, he can run out the clock.

I think a lot of moderate Republicans and conservative folks who are turned off by Trump will be just fine with another 4 years of Biden.

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12 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

While not in the bag, it's a situation where it's Biden's to lose and if he plays it by the book, as analogy if he runs the ball 3 times in a row and doesn't try to get cute and throw it, he can run out the clock.

I think a lot of moderate Republicans and conservative folks who are turned off by Trump will be just fine with another 4 years of Biden.

That’s a better way of putting it. 

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26 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Well, shit, this in the bag.  I guess I can stay home in November.

To me the wildcard is the nation states that benefit from a weakened U.S. with the means to influence the election. Obviously led by Russia.

 The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee investigation submitted the first in their five-volume 1,313-page report in July 2019. The committee concluded that the January 2017 intelligence community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed". The first volume also concluded that the assessment was "proper", learning from analysts that there was "no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions". The final and fifth volume, which was the result of three years of investigations, was released in August 2020,[8] ending one of the United States "highest-profile congressional inquiries".[9][10] The Committee report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.[9] 

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee[161] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.[162] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.[163] The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.[162]

Russia's path to victory in the Ukraine is through Donald Trump and conservative congress members that would stymie aid to Zelensky and leave NATO without a super-power's teeth.  They are going to go for broke in influencing this election, and as we've seen, you don't have to tilt the odds nationwide, just in a relatively small number of swing counties in a relatively small number of swing states.

There are a few things working in Trump’s favor:

 

Foreign influence: Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and Iran all stand to benefit from a Trump presidency.  Thought: why aren’t NATO countries meddling in our election the opposite direction to cancel them out?

Passion: Trump has fewer supporters than Biden but they are far more passionate about him.  His base is more solid, and they are willing to do more (including breaking the law) to help him win.

Electoral college: Regardless of the overall numbers, there are only 6-7 states that matter.  Expanding the margins in safe blue states is meaningless.  Biden could lead the popular vote by 10 million votes but still lose if GA, AZ, and MI/WI don’t go his way.

Supreme Court: this is less certain but a conservative court probably works in Trump’s favor if they end up deciding the election.

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I think, like with most things, this will be gamed out to be as chaotic and awful as possible, and then we will know the winner by November 7 at the latest.  Biden having control of the DCNG and military will ensure no big crowds on counting day in Congress.  Marge and Ted and Hawley and some other idiots will bluster but they won’t have the votes to overturn a single state or even mount a significant challenge due to the new challenge requirements

The courts having accelerated timelines for disputes will lead to Trump getting slapped down quickly in December. Just a quicker 0-162 result 

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24 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Trump has fewer supporters than Biden but they are far more passionate about him

They might be more passionate, but there's been a massive drop in passion over the past few years. Not as many flags or yard signs

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Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I think the white trash branding has really hurt the passion. 

Also all the losing. Because they're a big pack of losers. 

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I read The Art of the Deal in 2007 during a binge of biographies I was going through.  I was moderately interested in Trump, mostly because I knew nothing about him and figured there had to be more to him than the person I’d seen on Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous in the 80s or on his reality shows in the aughts.  I got thru that book and blew a raspberry, thinking “that dude is nothing but an attention-starved trust fund baby who was born into enough capital to buy fame and purchase an unearned reputation.  A bankrupt business genius.”  It’s why I never ever considered him a serious threat to the presidency and figured if he did win he’d be totally uninterested in actually doing anything.  I totally underestimated how dangerous he was.  But this entire last 9 years I have been very confident that his flaws will undo him, as they have multiple times throughout his life; it’s just a matter of time.  I don’t know if that’s actually happening now, with apparent dwindling enthusiasm for his style, money and legal problems, and age-related decline. I’m scared to bank on it.  But it will happen, eventually.  And it will be very satisfying for me to watch. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was too young and naive to celebrate Reagan’s death. I cannot wait to celebrate Trump’s. 

In all fairness, he'd been out of office and the public eye for so long, and it had been so well-known he'd been ill that it really didn't make much of a splash. The Iraq War, GWOT, and American torture abuses seemed much more urgent and were grabbing the headlines at the time. 

Edited by bolverk
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Just now, bolverk said:

In all fairness, he'd been out of office and the public eye for so long, and it had been so well-known he'd been ill that it really didn't make much of a splash. The Iraq War, GWOT, and American torture abuses were grabbing the headlines at the time. 

I was also 15, I didn't really give a flying fuck about politics. 2 years later (2006 when the Dems took the House and Nancy became the first female Speaker) did I suddenly become interested.  (Because it was a month before my 18th birthday and I couldn't vote in the 2006 midterms) 

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23 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I read The Art of the Deal in 2007 during a binge of biographies I was going through.  I was moderately interested in Trump, mostly because I knew nothing about him and figured there had to be more to him than the person I’d seen on Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous in the 80s or on his reality shows in the aughts.  I got thru that book and blew a raspberry, thinking “that dude is nothing but an attention-starved trust fund baby who was born into enough capital to buy fame and purchase an unearned reputation.  A bankrupt business genius.”  It’s why I never ever considered him a serious threat to the presidency and figured if he did win he’d be totally uninterested in actually doing anything.  I totally underestimated how dangerous he was.  But this entire last 9 years I have been very confident that his flaws will undo him, as they have multiple times throughout his life; it’s just a matter of time.  I don’t know if that’s actually happening now, with apparent dwindling enthusiasm for his style, money and legal problems, and age-related decline. I’m scared to bank on it.  But it will happen, eventually.  And it will be very satisfying for me to watch. 

And he didn't even write it. Some ghostwriter hack did. Can you imagine if Trump actually did attempt to write something? Oof.

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5 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

And he didn't even write it. Some ghostwriter hack did. Can you imagine if Trump actually did attempt to write something? Oof.

It’s an easy/quick read, which I assume was partially Trump’s influence.  That’s about its only non-negative trait.  There’s not a single insightful point about business nor a single humanizing anecdote about Trump’s life.  If you come away from that book thinking anything positive about Trump, you’re a rube.

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was also 15, I didn't really give a flying fuck about politics. 2 years later (2006 when the Dems took the House and Nancy became the first female Speaker) did I suddenly become interested.  (Because it was a month before my 18th birthday and I couldn't vote in the 2006 midterms) 

I know it wasn't your intention, but this post made me acutely feel my age. I was 32, a recent first-time homeowner, still fairly new to my career, and raising a 4-year-old kid at the time. Little did I know what destruction was lying around the corner a few years later: a painful divorce, the Great Recession, job loss, and the resulting years of alcohol-fueled madness to numb a broken soul and dashed dreams.

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12 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

gonna make trump’s broke ass defend fl and tx. lol. 

 

Do It Episode 3 GIF by Star Wars

 

5 hours ago, tx ind said:

Imagine that helps down ballot if they could pick off a few spots in some states (even when Biden loses those states).

 

You gotta start rebuilding somewhere. The national Democrats literally gave up on Texas in 2000 (and I've been angry about the disrespect they showed Ann Richards that year ever since), and even if they win nothing, they can sow the seeds for 2026 and 2028.

 

4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Negative Nancy here but I hope that he doesn’t pull a Hillary and try to expand the map before locking up 270 EVs. 

 

The Democrats have more money now than any party ever had. They can have it all.

 

4 hours ago, tx ind said:

He’s just trolling at this point, right?

 

No, he's quite genuine. Might be the only things he's saying that are.

His appeal is to Americans who thought that "you can't say the word n***er" was a taboo on speech, as opposed to something that reflected an immoral mindset. They see him lifting that taboo by saying these things, and love him for it. He's racist and xenophobic, and validates their own bigotry by saying it.

They never thought bigotry was wrong, just impolite to say aloud.

 

3 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

 

It's absolutely trending that way, but November is a long nine months from now.

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17 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I know Reagan had some bad policies.  I probably hold him in higher regard than all of you (that's a low bar, I know).  But one thing I think we can all agree on is he loved the United States of America.  In his bones, this was a wonderful place to him (despite not loving all Americans).  This country is just an ATM to Donald Trump.  it just happened to be the place he was born into that happened to have tens of millions of stupid people aching to be acknowledged and validated.  Donald Trump would have become Donald Trump in any of 100 other countries in a dozen different eras in history.  He was always going to be this way.  We just happened to be a fertile proving ground for him.  And our children will suffer because of it.  I celebrated a bit when Bin Laden died.  I paused when folks like H.W. Bush and Reagan and Dole and McCain died.  Bad politics aside, they loved our country and they served it in myriad aspects of their life.  Other than a round of beers for Dahmer's death announcement, I don't know that I ever went out reveling over another human's death, even if they were completely maniacal assholes.  Nothing will compare to the celebration of Donald Trump's death.  It will be exalted all around our planet.  And every anniversary of it shall be a "cheat" day for all of us.  And every year, our celebration will agitate his sad left-behind followers.  And the look on their faces each and every year will make it even sweeter.  

I think of it as a reverse Mao policy. (In China, the government says that the praise to criticism ratio for Mao should be 70:30). I think Reagan was 70 percent demon (terrible on the environment, destroyed the mental health system, deregulated and cut taxes to favor the wealthy, was probably the worst president ever for unions and labor, appointed Scalia, Nancy's "Just Say No" bullshit and the "war on drugs", he destabilized Central America, and he was behind the Iran-Contra scandal, he also supported a federal ban on abortion), 30 percent decent (immigration amnesty, seemed to be a public servant rather than a grifter).

Honestly 30:70 is the wrong ratio for Reagan. Probably closer to 10:90, if that.

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Wasn't intended as a policy debate-as-thread derail.  My point was simply to illuminate how Trump views our country.  Most of "bad presidents" at least still loved the ideals of the United States, even if they didn't try to elevate/implement them.  Most of them served them in the military, other political office, civil service, post-presidency advocacy, etc.  To Trump, this is just a venue to run his Confidence Schemes.  And his followers aren't really Patriots to him, or even 'Fellow Americans', they're Marks.  That's what makes it so disturbing to watch unfold.  No matter when and where he was born, so long as it was to parents with some resources and network, he was always going to awaken the worst in people and fleece them of their money and liberty.  And that they welcome it with open arms and open checkbooks is what makes it the mark of true evil.  He never comes with a pointy tail and a pitchfork, he comes with a goofy hat and comes as your friend.

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4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I just can’t make myself trust that those 20%, or a substantial portion thereof, will stay home or cross the aisle in November.  I need to see it happen to believe it.  

 

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Except Dems have been killing the special elections and 2022 midterms with doing just that. Persuasion. The GOP is getting more extreme by the day.  

The presidency has become way more of a powerful position (both in reality and by perception) than it used to be, and voters act differently in presidential elections. I too have zero trust that traditionally republican voters who say they hate trump will stay home or vote against him. First, the fact that they are still staunchly republican means they have some love of cruelty and dislike for "others" and I feel are overstating their dislike of trump. The numbers are still astonishing to me that a vile hateful incompetent criminal of a human is the overwhelming choice of a major political party. That alone is alarming.

But more importantly, I just see way too many wedge issues prevail on the right. These people, even if they truly do not like trump, will almost certainly fall for the wedge issue of the day. Trump may be a bad guy, but the other side are socialists/baby killers/queer lovers/facists (because covid restrictions)/traitors (because of all these Mexicans). It's gonna happen. I also don't trust that the youths will save us. It was supposed to start happening at least a decade ago and yet we got the most despicable person ever elected (even missteps by Clinton should not have made it even close). And we're already seeing that young liberals are demanding idealogical purity (Gaza being a massive hotbutton for them), and others (males in particular) are falling for the incel "fuck everyone" mindset at way too high a clip. 

I do still think that Biden will win, but it won't be by much more than 2020, and we're guaranteed that the orange baby will act out again as will his worshipers. 

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5 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

I have the same feeling, but that feeling also could be hope casting and we both might be whistling past the graveyard. 
No matter what, Trump will claim it was rigged and will do whatever he accuses Biden of doing and more.
It’s really important that it not be close for multiple reasons. In some ways a blowout Trump win is better for the country than a close Trump win and in any case seems more likely than a blowout Biden win.
 Im worried about Trump winning of course, but I’m also worried it will be close either way. 

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9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I have the same feeling, but that feeling also could be hope casting and we both might be whistling past the graveyard. 
No matter what, Trump will claim it was rigged and will do whatever he accuses Biden of doing and more.
It’s really important that it not be close for multiple reasons. In some ways a blowout Trump win is better for the country than a close Trump win and in any case seems more likely than a blowout Biden win.
 Im worried about Trump winning of course, but I’m also worried it will be close either way. 

Trump is already claiming the 2024 election is going to be rigged. He's already planning his strategy when he inevitably loses. That, to me, speaks volumes about how he and his campaign see things going. 

https://apnews.com/article/trump-2024-election-lies-voter-fraud-biden-f3f3691c2ea0667ad694e3bee577d802

The difference this time is he isn't the head of state.  I think it's going to be a very similar map to 2020 with maybe 1 or 2 states going back to Trump, but it won't be enough. I don't care if it's close or not, he just needs to lose. 

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14 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

The difference this time is he isn't the head of state.  I think it's going to be a very similar map to 2020 with maybe 1 or 2 states going back to Trump, but it won't be enough. I don't care if it's close or not, he just needs to lose. 

Yep, if I had to guess:

Biden wins AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, NH, NE-02
Trump wins NC
I'm 50/50 on Georgia

Marist had some polls (grain of salt) last night with Trump up less than 5 in both GA and NC.  I do recall in 2020 and 2022 that the Georgia polls were not good for Dems early and then flipped the closer to the election we got.  Because in March 2020, I was not counting on Georgia being a blue state in November. 

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep, if I had to guess:

Biden wins AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, NH, NE-02
Trump wins NC
I'm 50/50 on Georgia

Marist had some polls (grain of salt) last night with Trump up less than 5 in both GA and NC.  I do recall in 2020 and 2022 that the Georgia polls were not good for Dems early and then flipped the closer to the election we got.  Because in March 2020, I was not counting on Georgia being a blue state in November. 

If Trump takes back Georgia and Arizona, he still loses without flipping MI, PA, or WI. I just have a hard time seeing everything breaking for him given the current state of the GOP in those states. 

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