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Posted

The idea of the water being 10’ higher than the 281 bridge is nuts.

ive driven over the Guadalupe so many times here I can’t really wrap my head around it.

image.thumb.png.eb8acab880790a9017adda64e549b593.png

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Posted
8 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I hate to go there but… Mystic‘s buildings are very low laying. Between the road and the river. There’s no hill, maybe a slight rise. Their neighbor Mo Ranch has their girls’ dorm on top of a hill. I get it. Walking up a hill a couple times a days a bitch, but there’s precedent for putting buildings up high. 

Go fuck yourself and die, you slip I’d piece of shit

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

People didnt live near the river?

they did. i have family diaries talking about floods and droughts outside of marble falls from the 1840s to the 1930s even then they were furious when the rivers were dammed 

Edited by FORTY NINE TO ZERO
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

The idea of the water being 10’ higher than the 281 bridge is nuts.

ive driven over the Guadalupe so many times here I can’t really wrap my head around it.

image.thumb.png.eb8acab880790a9017adda64e549b593.png

I find that hard to believe as well, I guess we will have our answer in a few hours 

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Posted (edited)

There were models yesterday showing up to 7 inches of rain was possible. That alone should be enough for the camps to move campers away from low lying areas, and if they weren't aware the local authorities should have made sure they were aware. As it turns out the rainfall was quite a bit more in some areas, but that doesn't mean there wouldn't have been flooding just based on the top end of the flood watches issued 7/3. I can't help but think somewhere there was a breakdown in communication OR there was never a communication plan in place. And thats the reason for the behavior at the press conference earlier. 

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 


So happy they were ok.🤘🏻

To focus on something a least somewhat light heartened… the older brother obviously did not dig that bus ride. 

Posted
Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m confused. Is this a bit?

No just a drunk man that has been out in the hill country all weekend and doesn’t want some stupid motherfucker from Houston posting some nonsense. Stay the fuck out even with your fake name.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Blotto said:

There were models yesterday showing up to 7 inches of rain was possible. That alone should be enough for the camps to move campers away from low lying areas, and if they weren't aware the local authorities should have made sure they were aware. 

This was why I made that point earlier -- they know cell reception sucks out there.  When the forecast rains are climbing, at some point it would seem prudent to have local officials go to those camps and at least warn them if not "order" them to evacuate.  I understand the actual rain bomb occured very suddenly, but what's not clear is when they knew it was likely, maybe not the magnitude but at least at a magnitude that could cause potentially deadly flooding.

Yes, it's hard to evacuate 100s of people (if not 1000s) in a short period of time.  Have a plan.  A flotilla of locals with pickup trucks -- god knows they have plenty of those -- and of course some busses.  I don't know, I'm less convinced it was as much of a misfire as I imagined earlier but I have to think this could have been dealt with better.

Posted
1 minute ago, LebongJames said:

No just a drunk man that has been out in the hill country all weekend and doesn’t want some stupid motherfucker from Houston posting some nonsense. Stay the fuck out even with your fake name.

Tell where I’m wrong. I just drive down the road to another ranch. I’ve been out near Hunt every summer since I could walk. Did the camp change? Are the cabins up on a bluff now? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Tell where I’m wrong. I just drive down the road to another ranch. I’ve been out near Hunt every summer since I could walk. Did the camp change? Are the cabins up on a bluff now? 

C9ym.gif

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

 

 

this was the first official Flood Watch from the NWS.  later updates kept increasing the potential for higher rainfalls 

image.png.c09b98a3e7eb4380e16cb0eae7b3d523.png

 

 

 

while thats true, getting the information to the camps  and being able to act on it  is the main issue, flood warnings are issued numerous times a year and actual flooding only end up actally coming to fruition occurs at a much smaller percentage. And then trying to wrap your minds around a once in 500 year flood that manifests over 5 hours at the dead of night is inconceivable.

I would assume the leaders of the camps had either hardline phone or internet and got the warning, but the main rains didnt happen until later in the day, and the actual rise was catastrophic at 2am in the morning. 

 

there will be a shitload of fingerpointing and TJH and his team will wait a respectable day or two and then drop lawsuits on anyone associated with the hill country... and the loss of the kids will be lost in the process.

 

time will tell if there was enough time to actually warn the camps and for them to act on the information or if this was a catastrophe set the moment the camps were set up decades ago. 

but acting like a single flood warning is a badge of protection is rediculous. 

I hope the number of confirmed losses doesnt climb any higher but that seems unlikely. 

Edited by AUS-97HORN
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

There were models yesterday showing up to 7 inches of rain was possible. That alone should be enough for the camps to move campers away from low lying areas, and if they weren't aware the local authorities should have made sure they were aware. As it turns out the rainfall was quite a bit more in some areas, but that doesn't mean there wouldn't have been flooding just based on the top end of the flood watches issued 7/3. I can't help but think somewhere there was a breakdown in communication OR there was never a communication plan in place. And thats the reason for the behavior at the press conference earlier. 


Yeah…… the weird insistence about no one knowing… pointing the finger to the national weather service…. And weirdly the media is too much of “The lady doth protest too much, methinks” vibes.

Posted

I live in San Antonio. We had a flash flood last month that killed 13 people, wall of water swept 20 cars off of loop 410.  About 2-3 times since then there’s been torrential downpours, had to drive through one. Thankfully those were short lived. Last night was terrible as well obviously. It’s been a very strange summer, if it rains it’s exclusively been through extremely violent thunderstorms. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yes, it's hard to evacuate 100s of people (if not 1000s) in a short period of time.  Have a plan.  A flotilla of locals with pickup trucks -- god knows they have plenty of those -- and of course some busses.  I don't know, I'm less convinced it was as much of a misfire as I imagined earlier but I have to think this could have been dealt with better.

 

I agree with the sentiment, and in a known case of "this flood will happen and it will be catastrophic" throwing everyone in the back of pickup trucks is clear and obvious yes.

 

 

but you also have to look at the other side of the coin.... the side where the rain doesnt come down as hard and the major flood doesnt happen, but  one of those personal trucks with 5 kids the back of the truck, takes a turn too wide, loses control and flips over and kids get hurt..... and suddenly everyone is screaming why the fuck were pickup trucks taking kids out of the camps??? and shit goes sideways in that situation as well.

 

thats the scenario that causes so many private entities and government agencies have to wait till the last minute to make a stay or go call. 

Posted

Spoke with my MET guy. That little cell west of Midland could be fun tomorrow. 

He is pretty damn good. Not Jim Spencer, but did run MET over SW Asia for 10 years. Fucker can spot storms. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Spoke with my MET guy. That little cell west of Midland could be fun tomorrow. 

He is pretty damn good. Not Jim Spencer, but did run MET over SW Asia for 10 years. Fucker can spot storms. 

What the fuck do you mean by fun? 🤩

Posted
4 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

I agree with the sentiment, and in a known case of "this flood will happen and it will be catastrophic" throwing everyone in the back of pickup trucks is clear and obvious yes.

 

 

but you also have to look at the other side of the coin.... the side where the rain doesnt come down as hard and the major flood doesnt happen, but  one of those personal trucks with 5 kids the back of the truck, takes a turn too wide, loses control and flips over and kids get hurt..... and suddenly everyone is screaming why the fuck were pickup trucks taking kids out of the camps??? and shit goes sideways in that situation as well.

 

thats the scenario that causes so many private entities and government agencies have to wait till the last minute to make a stay or go call. 

Oh bullshit. Local and regional planning has been going on for a long time. Hell I ran a team to work in Houston building regional response centers. How do you get assessment people in fast. 

You can easily customize these to an area. You will never be perfect but you will be very close. 

In Texas, the counties do not want to pay for it. 

 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I agree with the sentiment, and in a known case of "this flood will happen and it will be catastrophic" throwing everyone in the back of pickup trucks is clear and obvious yes.

but you also have to look at the other side of the coin.... the side where the rain doesnt come down as hard and the major flood doesnt happen, but  one of those personal trucks with 5 kids the back of the truck, takes a turn too wide, loses control and flips over and kids get hurt..... and suddenly everyone is screaming why the fuck were pickup trucks taking kids out of the camps??? and shit goes sideways in that situation as well.

It's all in the calculus of risk vs reward.  I'd suggest the risks of a vehicle accident are fairly low, but of course not zero.  Perhaps the risk of a catastrophic flood is similar.  What bothers me is the perception that it's important to save face by NOT evacuating in the event the floods don't manifest is more important than the risk of losing lives.  (Not your perception, but the official perception.)  I hope this event serves as a touchstone by which future risk is evaluated.  "Hey, we thought the same thing in 2025, and look what happened."

Posted (edited)

the school i attended/worked at has always had a TON of families who go to camp mystic, camp longhorn, and the like every summer. we also have a yearly retreat at MO Ranch that’s like a rite of passage for sixth graders at our school. my mom has been on the phone all day with people from the community all trying to share info. no word yet on any missing kids from our community, but we obviously fear the worst. i just don’t even know what to say when kids are involved like this. just hoping for some good news soon.

Edited by Derka
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Posted
15 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

while thats true, getting the information to the camps  and being able to act on it  is the main issue, flood warnings are issued numerous times a year and actual flooding only end up actally coming to fruition occurs at a much smaller percentage. And then trying to wrap your minds around a once in 500 year flood that manifests over 5 hours at the dead of night is inconceivable.

I would assume the leaders of the camps had either hardline phone or internet and got the warning, but the main rains didnt happen until later in the day, and the actual rise was catastrophic at 2am in the morning. 

 

there will be a shitload of fingerpointing and TJH and his team will wait a respectable day or two and then drop lawsuits on anyone associated with the hill country... and the loss of the kids will be lost in the process.

 

time will tell if there was enough time to actually warn the camps and for them to act on the information or if this was a catastrophe set the moment the camps were set up decades ago. 

but acting like a single flood warning is a badge of protection is rediculous. 

I hope the number of confirmed losses doesnt climb any higher but that seems unlikely. 

I respectfully disagree.  When a flood watch is posted in perhaps the most flash flood prone region in the country, and the most flash flood prone river within that region, then the adults need to be on 100% alert,  if not take immediate precautionary moves to higher ground.  Yeah they may have been lucky the last umpteen times and nothing happened but when the lucky streak runs out it will run out in a bad way. 

 

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Posted

My daughter is a CIT at Rocky River in Wimberley. Their cabins are pretty high up so they didn't get hit by the 15 flood,... however I asked her if they had flood evac plans in place and she said no. I'm guessing that most others probably don't either. I'm betting it will be mandatory after this year. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:


I am very very close friends with her mother. Just gut-wrenching. Texting right now with her husband, to whom in some ways I owe my life.

Best of luck for y'all.   I got my info from Dr. Oz.  Peace and love bro.

Posted
Just now, King George said:

Family friend. Crushed. 

I’m so sorry. I don’t mean this in a glib Eddie Haskell kind of way. ❤️‍🩹
 

There are going to be a lot of these shit announcements. 

Posted
33 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

I respectfully disagree.  When a flood watch is posted in perhaps the most flash flood prone region in the country, and the most flash flood prone river within that region, then the adults need to be on 100% alert,  if not take immediate precautionary moves to higher ground.  Yeah they may have been lucky the last umpteen times and nothing happened but when the lucky streak runs out it will run out in a bad way. 

 

Had a long conversation with my sons today about the importance of knowing the weather at all times, know what the vulnerabilities are where you live or are staying, and to never underestimate nature’s force. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I’m so sorry. I don’t mean this in a glib Eddie Haskell kind of way. ❤️‍🩹
 

There are going to be a lot of these shit announcements. 

Lets stop posting them. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

From her parents a statement (there will sadly be a lot of these.) 

RiP tiny one 🌸 I have no other words. 

 

 

RiP sweet and lovely child 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

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Posted
1 hour ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

they did. i have family diaries talking about floods and droughts outside of marble falls from the 1840s to the 1930s even then they were furious when the rivers were dammed 

My grandfather used to tell me stories about the dam before Tom Miller failing.

Posted
1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Lets stop posting them. 

Yeah im about to bow out here I can’t deal with a parade of pictures of dead baby girls. I know it happened but fuck man. Ugh. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I get you are upset. We all are. ❤️‍🩹

Some of our members know these babies. 

Come on Nicole. Can we be nice for 2 or 3 days and let the families find out? 

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