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Posted
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool thoughts, thanks.  Yeah, load growth projections have become wonky as shit as multiple new adders have come into the mix.  Was aware of accounting for charging EVs, but hadn't really seen/thought much about industrial and heat pump-driven growth.  We'd all seen crypto mining already have an impact, but AI data center growth seems to be putting that to shame.

What you say about what will happen to assets in any crash makes sense.  Got a 25 yr old plant, with more expensive O&M and less efficiency, vs. a 2 yr old plant early in its maintenance life and quite efficient?  When you have to drop generation assets, you retire that first plant every time.

Tell me more about what you mean about getting electrical gear on the brown market?

Sorry, meant grey market.  Got my colors confused.  The grey market is just the resale market of new equipment. 

If/When the AI bubble pops, it will result in many construction projects being canceled in both data centers and power plants.  Both types of facilities require high voltage electrical equipment.  Delivery of some of this equipment is what is driving the schedules, so it needs to be ordered early.  It is very much a sellers market, so the equipment vendors are requiring large upfront payments.  So, it is likely once projects are canceled - projects that are not completed - there will be equipment that is mostly or completely purchased that the owner doesn't need.  They will sell it to resellers for quick cash, who in turn sell it to maybe a new widget factory that is being developed.  Of course, if the whole economy tanks, there won't be many new buyers in the market, so the price will drop even further.  (Unfortunately, I don't know of a good way to make money in all that.) 

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