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Posted
13 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

366 hours out, so almost 0% chance this plays out, but posting because of boobies. 

image.thumb.png.0dd6cf2ccd945dec4974e73353fa4555.png

 

Oh hai GFS

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Remember when NOLA was wiped out in June?  Me either...

515017226_3081694521978638_2167493212783930100_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p480x480_tt6&_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=_xB_ee56JYAQ7kNvwHvX5pg&_nc_oc=Adn5xQcjpoUHbnjXsPA162pYdHD-WNiP7EtQj3l4Q01xLfwsHeS4oQU0j8JTeHfMcvQ&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfXWxiad9qcmLWqlULSiPNRcritFyZLWrmmUCb5jg__RMw&oe=689A6FCB

Posted
On 8/7/2025 at 9:29 AM, texasdago said:

Oh hai GFS

514691235_3081694941978596_2685553538365521875_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p235x350_tt6&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=i8XM1w2zrhMQ7kNvwGUBnhf&_nc_oc=AdlES1C84xLBbP6h30zjmml9lfB8FPCBBtpMgZQ42FCaeKZ5AUaSBzGbq1hPxsaeQ1w&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfWC5rm6oi6bEqqpwetjnAmqIZW3GRLV1NTSTEXzmDMOCw&oe=689A6F13

Remember when NOLA was wiped out in June?  Me either...

515017226_3081694521978638_2167493212783930100_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p480x480_tt6&_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=_xB_ee56JYAQ7kNvwHvX5pg&_nc_oc=Adn5xQcjpoUHbnjXsPA162pYdHD-WNiP7EtQj3l4Q01xLfwsHeS4oQU0j8JTeHfMcvQ&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfXWxiad9qcmLWqlULSiPNRcritFyZLWrmmUCb5jg__RMw&oe=689A6FCB

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at here or what this is trying to say. But I assume the color of each X corresponds to the chart in the upper left corner which indicates the probability that a TS would form? And almost all of them are purple, blue, or green, meaning they was less than 50% chance anything would form. Does that really indicate a "false positive"? What am I missing here?

Posted

It is called forecasting. It is why sometimes weather weasels get it wrong. Mother Nature is a bitch and she loves tossing a dirty curve ball. 

Yeah, lets blame the watchers for overwatching. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
On 8/8/2025 at 12:46 PM, Rip76 said:

😳

 

IMG_0054.jpeg

4 potential tropical systems

 

 

In a row???  How does the Atlantic take the length. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at here or what this is trying to say. But I assume the color of each X corresponds to the chart in the upper left corner which indicates the probability that a TS would form? And almost all of them are purple, blue, or green, meaning they was less than 50% chance anything would form. Does that really indicate a "false positive"? What am I missing here?

Its called the GFS crying wolf.  People love to post individual model runs or other scary pictures as clickbait and to drive engagement.  When someone posts, "hey, look what's happening in two weeks", no one knows.  Its too far our to be remotely accurate.  

https://theeyewall.com/long-range-forecast-scareicane-season-has-arrived-for-the-eastern-gulf/

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