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Posted
13 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

366 hours out, so almost 0% chance this plays out, but posting because of boobies. 

image.thumb.png.0dd6cf2ccd945dec4974e73353fa4555.png

 

Oh hai GFS

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Remember when NOLA was wiped out in June?  Me either...

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Posted
On 8/7/2025 at 9:29 AM, texasdago said:

Oh hai GFS

514691235_3081694941978596_2685553538365521875_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p235x350_tt6&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=i8XM1w2zrhMQ7kNvwGUBnhf&_nc_oc=AdlES1C84xLBbP6h30zjmml9lfB8FPCBBtpMgZQ42FCaeKZ5AUaSBzGbq1hPxsaeQ1w&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfWC5rm6oi6bEqqpwetjnAmqIZW3GRLV1NTSTEXzmDMOCw&oe=689A6F13

Remember when NOLA was wiped out in June?  Me either...

515017226_3081694521978638_2167493212783930100_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p480x480_tt6&_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=_xB_ee56JYAQ7kNvwHvX5pg&_nc_oc=Adn5xQcjpoUHbnjXsPA162pYdHD-WNiP7EtQj3l4Q01xLfwsHeS4oQU0j8JTeHfMcvQ&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent.faus1-1.fna&_nc_gid=Fih7YjyaZZQTEZoWsnXhtQ&oh=00_AfXWxiad9qcmLWqlULSiPNRcritFyZLWrmmUCb5jg__RMw&oe=689A6FCB

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at here or what this is trying to say. But I assume the color of each X corresponds to the chart in the upper left corner which indicates the probability that a TS would form? And almost all of them are purple, blue, or green, meaning they was less than 50% chance anything would form. Does that really indicate a "false positive"? What am I missing here?

Posted

It is called forecasting. It is why sometimes weather weasels get it wrong. Mother Nature is a bitch and she loves tossing a dirty curve ball. 

Yeah, lets blame the watchers for overwatching. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
On 8/8/2025 at 12:46 PM, Rip76 said:

😳

 

IMG_0054.jpeg

4 potential tropical systems

 

 

In a row???  How does the Atlantic take the length. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 2
Posted
2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at here or what this is trying to say. But I assume the color of each X corresponds to the chart in the upper left corner which indicates the probability that a TS would form? And almost all of them are purple, blue, or green, meaning they was less than 50% chance anything would form. Does that really indicate a "false positive"? What am I missing here?

Its called the GFS crying wolf.  People love to post individual model runs or other scary pictures as clickbait and to drive engagement.  When someone posts, "hey, look what's happening in two weeks", no one knows.  Its too far our to be remotely accurate.  

https://theeyewall.com/long-range-forecast-scareicane-season-has-arrived-for-the-eastern-gulf/

  • Like 1
Posted

From the Eyewall:

Invest 98L is going to track almost straight northwest over the next 24 to 30 hours. This should come ashore in Texas by Friday evening. Any development will be lower-end and rather disjointed. In other words, we could see a sloppy tropical depression come out of this, but we probably won't see a named storm.

 

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  • Like 1
Posted

Up to 40%

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Posted
23 hours ago, Rip76 said:

98L

First model puts it at Mexico/Texas border.

IMG_0103.jpeg

Every one of these "5 percent," "10 percent" that pop up in the Gulf of Mexico turns into a named storm. Not sure why they even pretend as if there's a chance they won't develop.

Posted (edited)

I believe in this case it’s just running out of time.  Also it seems if there is any sort of mid level spin it’s racing to the coast and leaving the convection to its north behind.  It looks as if the convection is diminishing a bit today.

Now if some sort of low forms under the convection further north, we may have something.

Edited by Rip76
Posted
6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Every one of these "5 percent," "10 percent" that pop up in the Gulf of Mexico turns into a named storm. Not sure why they even pretend as if there's a chance they won't develop.

Are those just staffing numbers?

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