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As Floods Hit, Key Roles Were Vacant at Weather Service Offices in Texas

Some experts say staff shortages might have complicated forecasters’ ability to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials.

July 5, 2025

Texas officials have blamed the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But the staffing shortages present a more complicated picture.Carter Johnston for The New York Times

By Christopher Flavelle

Christopher Flavelle has written about the National Weather Service since 2019. He reported from Washington.

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose. 

Texas officials appeared to blame the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm’s unusually abrupt escalation.

The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said — the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight. 

The shortages are among the factors likely to be scrutinized as the death toll climbs from the floods. Separate questions have emerged about the preparedness of local communities, including Kerr County’s apparent lack of a local flood warning system. The county, roughly 50 miles northwest of San Antonio, is where many of the deaths occurred. 

In an interview, Rob Kelly, the Kerr County judge and its most senior elected official, said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive, and local residents are resistant to new spending. 

“Taxpayers won’t pay for it,” Mr. Kelly said. Asked if people might reconsider in light of the catastrophe, he said, “I don’t know.”

The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure. 

Some of the openings may predate the current Trump administration. But at both offices, the vacancy rate is roughly double what it was when Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January, according to Mr. Fahy. 

John Sokich, who until January was director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service, said those unfilled positions made it harder to coordinate with local officials because each Weather Service office works as a team. “Reduced staffing puts that in jeopardy,” he said.

A spokeswoman for the National Weather Service, Erica Grow Cei, did not answer questions from The New York Times about the Texas vacancies, including how long those positions had been open and whether those vacancies had contributed to the damage caused by the flooding.

“The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life,” she said in a statement, adding that the agency “remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.”

A White House spokeswoman directed a request for comment to the Commerce Department, which includes the Weather Service. The department did not respond to a request for comment.

The tragedy began to unfold in the early hours of July 4, when more than 10 inches of rain fell in some areas northwest of San Antonio, including in Kerr County, where more than 850 people were evacuated by rescuers. As of Saturday evening, 27 girls from a Christian summer camp remained missing.

That night, Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, appeared to fault the Weather Service, noting that forecasters on Wednesday had predicted as much as six to eight inches of rain in the region. “The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts,” he said at a news conference with Gov. Greg Abbott.

But what makes flash floods so hazardous is their ability to strike quickly, with limited warning. Around midnight on Thursday, the San Angelo and San Antonio weather offices put out their first flash flood warnings, urging people to “move immediately to higher ground.” The office sent out additional flash flood warnings through the night, expanding the area of danger.

It is not clear what steps local officials took to act on those warnings. A spokesman for the Kerr County emergency management department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

The amount of rain that fell Friday morning was hard for the Weather Service to anticipate, with reports in some areas of 15 inches over just a few hours, according to Louis W. Uccellini, who was director of the National Weather Service from 2013 until 2022. 

“It’s pretty hard to forecast for these kinds of rainfall rates,” Dr. Uccellini said. He said that climate change was making extreme rainfall events more frequent and severe, and that more research was needed so that the Weather Service could better forecast those events.

An equally important question, he added, was how the Weather Service was coordinating with local emergency managers to act on those warnings as they came in. 

Most of the deaths occurred in Kerr County.Michel Fortier/The San Antonio Express-News, via Associated Press

“You have to have a response mechanism that involves local officials,” Dr. Uccellini said. “It involves a relationship with the emergency management community, at every level.” 

But that requires having staff members in those positions, he said. 

Under the Trump administration, the Weather Service, like other federal agencies, has been pushed to reduce its number of employees. By this spring, through layoffs and retirements,  the Weather Service had lost nearly 600 people from a work force that until recently was as large as 4,000.

Some forecasting offices began to close down at night, and others launched fewer weather balloons, which send back crucial data to feed forecasts. The Weather Service said it was preparing for “degraded operations,” with fewer meteorologists available to fine-tune forecasts.

Last month, despite a government hiring freeze, the Weather Service announced a plan to hire 126 people in positions around the country, in what Ms. Cei, the agency’s spokeswoman, described as an effort to “stabilize” the department. As of this week, those jobs had not been posted in the federal government’s hiring portal.

Mr. Sokich said that the local Weather Service offices appeared to have sent out the correct warnings. He said the challengewas getting people to receive those warnings, and then take action. 

Under the Trump administration, the Weather Service, like other federal agencies, has been pushed to reduce its number of employees.Jordan Vonderhaar for The New York Times

Typically, Mr. Sokich said, the Weather Service will send an official to meet regularly with local emergency managers for what are called “tabletop operations” — planning ahead of time for what to do in case of a flash flood or other major weather disaster. 

But the Trump administration’s pursuit of fewer staff members means remaining employees have less time to spend coordinating with local officials, he said. 

The Trump administration has also put strict limits on new hires at the Weather Service, Mr. Sokich said. So unlike during previous administrations, when these vacancies could have quickly been filled, the agency now has fewer options.

The Trump administration also froze spending on travel, he added, making it even harder for Weather Service staff members to meet with their state and local counterparts.

That does not mean there is not room for cuts at the Weather Service, Mr. Sokich said. “But you need to do them deliberately and thoughtfully,” he said.

David Montgomery and Judson Jonescontributed reporting.

Christopher Flavelle is a Times reporter covering how President Trump is transforming the federal government.

 

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Posted
11 hours ago, bolverk said:

"NPR has compiled a timeline of when local, state and federal officials posted warnings on social media as well as the timeline of events as presented by local officials."

Starts on Wednesday: https://www.npr.org/2025/07/05/nx-s1-5457759/texas-floods-timeline

 

This timeline is wrong. It’s pretty irresponsible for NPR to make this mistake given the timing of the warnings are going to influence the perception of who is at fault.

The mistake is highlighted below. NPR reports the post at 2:14 AM. The link shows the timestamp of 1:14 AM.

The article describes events at 12:42, 2:14, 1:26. This confused me and led me to click on the link. Sloppy work, NPR.

 

IMG_3914.thumb.jpeg.37d387cb02a95359e959ef4097b7395e.jpeg
IMG_3915.thumb.jpeg.66a1e4a18a2a3f6e1cf1daaa1582dccb.jpeg

 
Link to X at “2:14 AM” timestamp shows it’s actually 1:14 AM


IMG_3916.thumb.jpeg.129ca27e3f03a007e8105e9c6b663aa7.jpeg

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, GenXer said:

The mistake is highlighted below. NPR reports the post at 2:14 AM. The link shows the timestamp of 1:14 AM.

It’s just a time zone difference. NPR is EST.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, GenXer said:

 

This timeline is wrong. It’s pretty irresponsible for NPR to make this mistake given the timing of the warnings are going to influence the perception of who is at fault.

The mistake is highlighted below. NPR reports the post at 2:14 AM. The link shows the timestamp of 1:14 AM.

The article describes events at 12:42, 2:14, 1:26. This confused me and led me to click on the link. Sloppy work, NPR.

 

IMG_3914.thumb.jpeg.37d387cb02a95359e959ef4097b7395e.jpeg
IMG_3915.thumb.jpeg.66a1e4a18a2a3f6e1cf1daaa1582dccb.jpeg

 
Link to X at “2:14 AM” timestamp shows it’s actually 1:14 AM


IMG_3916.thumb.jpeg.129ca27e3f03a007e8105e9c6b663aa7.jpeg

 

Good catch. I think I've noticed before weird inconsistencies with time stamps on Xitter that might be attributable to what time zone you're in as opposed to the person Xitting. With NPR staff being EDT, they might have fucked that up.

Not sure. Not an excuse. But that could be an explanation.

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Posted

I’m trying not to assign blame, but I think we can look at three points in time and draw a solid conclusion.

Point 1: 1900 Galveston Hurricane
Poor 2: 2025 Hill Country Floods
Point 3: The future, when science and modern communication technology provide ample warning and there is no loss of life.

My conclusion? Unless things change soon, we will be moving from Point 2 backwards to Point 1 rather than forward to Point 3.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

It’s just a time zone difference. NPR is EST.

Then the article should’ve adjusted for that and not listed events sequentially at 12:42, 2:14, 1:26 AM. Sloppy work, NPR.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Woland said:

I’m trying not to assign blame, but I think we can look at three points in time and draw a solid conclusion.

Point 1: 1900 Galveston Hurricane
Poor 2: 2025 Hill Country Floods
Point 3: The future, when science and modern communication technology provide ample warning and there is no loss of life.

My conclusion? Unless things change soon, we will be moving from Point 2 backwards to Point 1 rather than forward to Point 3.

Brisket's Razor applies here. 

Posted

I think the reality is we've all depended on and trusted in a governmental and societal infrastructure that is quickly dissipating, even with the technological advancements through the years. We're gonna have to make more decisions on our own. 

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Posted

100 year floods that seem to happen every couple of years.

This is the ultimate Tim Robinson in the banana guy costume gif. They don't care. Time to cover their own asses and make sure they kiss Trump's ass. It's not their kids dying. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

100 year floods that seem to happen every couple of years.

This is the ultimate Tim Robinson in the banana guy costume gif. They don't care. Time to cover their own asses and make sure they kiss Trump's ass. It's not their kids dying. 

[Abbott] It could have been worse[/Abbott]

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Posted
9 hours ago, 7KHorn said:

Can't rec this enough, these positions need to be filled.

they needed to have not been terminated in the first place

the regime is scared shitless about this tragedy - it's why they delayed the presser an hour so gnome could get there - they know their evil malfeasance and performative cruelty just cost 75 magats their lives including MAGAT cHiLdReN

aggy are going to be the canary on this one - if the regime comes up with talking points that satiate aggy they will escape - if they don't......

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Yeah 100 year floods happening all over the place. Wimberley was a 100 year flood too.

The Houston area had 3 500 year floods in 2015-2017.

The grownups stopped being in charge in this state a long fucking time ago. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

Yes, I was talking to a friend who lives in Kerrville.  She said all the campgrounds were loaded.   Lots of unknowns.  

I was surprised we didn't see more housing debris or tents piling up at that bridge.  

That is a huge watershed between Hunt and Canyon Lake.  It's going to ring up some astronomical damages.  Hopefully the folks downstream got better warning in a more timely effort.

canyon is up 10' in 2 days - that's where the bodies are

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

This is just heartbreaking 

 

Yeah, this one hits really, really close to home.  The son was in my wife's class this school year.

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Posted
 

Our state motto is now, officially, “it could have been worse.”
That’s all our leaders have to offer.
Someday, it will be “gosh, it’s a shame that 10 million Texans died. But 10 million didn’t! Proof of the power of prayer! Without prayer, it could have been worse!”
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Posted
2 hours ago, Chopper said:

Anything I write about this will come off as far too ragey so I'll say nada.

image.thumb.png.cc734c4f8ccb8171a869f9e217a44a08.png

 

I want to roll him into an active volcano.

 

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Posted

Why do we have all these search and rescue people acting and doing things when they should be on their knees praying? Why isn’t the God of Abraham doing something? Is it because we gave civil rights to the gays?

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Posted
11 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

image.png.224e02308214abd1f9cc9c82ba29707b.png

Rot in hell you hobbit-sized POS.

The fact that we don't run these shit goblins out of town at the end of our pitchforks goes to show how rotten our "Texas" culture is.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I think the reality is we've all depended on and trusted in a governmental and societal infrastructure that is quickly dissipating, even with the technological advancements through the years. We're gonna have to make more decisions on our own. 

Wait 'til more people figure out all the work their children have been putting into school so they can go to med school is for naught because there's no longer any gov't. student loans available. I'm not sure if that'd go into news or CR though so...

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Posted

Once again, if Sandy Hook didn’t move the needle with those people then nothing will.  They will do anything to protect the cult leader and any empathy they pretended to have has been long gone in the name of ‘the cause’.  

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Posted

Pope Leo addressed this tragedy in his mass today

1 minute ago, Homercles said:

Once again, if Sandy Hook didn’t move the needle with those people then nothing will.  They will do anything to protect the cult leader and any empathy they pretended to have has been long gone in the name of ‘the cause’.  

They care much more about this than Sandy Hook because Sandy Hook was a secular public school. This was a private Christian camp.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Once again, if Sandy Hook didn’t move the needle with those people then nothing will.  They will do anything to protect the cult leader and any empathy they pretended to have has been long gone in the name of ‘the cause’.  

 

give it time, like sandy hook true believers will believe these flood deaths never happened 

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Posted

I'm hung up on the fact that a very small group of adults / maybe one adult, took no action at camp mystic on friday night and is responsible for all those deaths 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

does anyone have the ksat anchor rant after the 4pm presser yesterday?

5 hour, 49 minutes, 50 second mark more or less

Posted
33 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

The fact that we don't run these shit goblins out of town at the end of our pitchforks goes to show how rotten our "Texas" culture is.

Our "friends and neighbors" keep this state mired in incompetence and misery.

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Posted

when did the monitoring stations up river see the numbers jump and was a notice sent out based on those actual numbers ?

that's the hard warming / real time flooding alerts that need to be relayed asap 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Pope Leo addressed this tragedy in his mass today

They care much more about this than Sandy Hook because Sandy Hook was a secular public school. This was a private Christian camp.

I'm 53 and I've never heard Camp Mystic described as a "Christian" camp until this weekend.

When did that happen?

 

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Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

I'm 53 and I've never heard Camp Mystic described as a "Christian" camp until this weekend.

When did that happen?

 

I saw it in Axios I believe.



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