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Posted

Hold on here, am I reading this right and that Mystics “emergency plan” was to have 10 year old girls, just hold tight in cabins that were yards from the river?    That can’t be correct.  

Posted
17 minutes ago, Cajun said:

Caught this pulling out of the Canyon Lake Marina today while I was over there this afternoon -

View recent photos.jpeg

I’ve seen notices that Canyon Lake was going to have several out of state teams working ther this week 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I’ve seen notices that Canyon Lake was going to have several out of state teams working ther this week 

Yup -- 

Edited by Cajun
There were 4 ambulances & a fire truck there all with lights going. Seemed like they had found something.
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Posted
53 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Hold on here, am I reading this right and that Mystics “emergency plan” was to have 10 year old girls, just hold tight in cabins that were yards from the river?    That can’t be correct.  

I dont know whats being said, but that is most certainly not their emergency plan. Im not directing this at you, but I feel confident the Eastlands and their staff took significant care when it comes to flood planning. Its going to take some time for the details to come out.

That being said, I had dinner tonight with someone very close to the situation, and she tearfully stated to me that she thinks they could've been more on top of it. It doesnt sound like they were off by some egregious amount, but the scoreboard is the scoreboard. Its a brutal situation. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, BlackCat said:

I dont know whats being said, but that is most certainly not their emergency plan. Im not directing this at you, but I feel confident the Eastlands and their staff took significant care when it comes to flood planning. Its going to take some time for the details to come out.

That being said, I had dinner tonight with someone very close to the situation, and she tearfully stated to me that she thinks they could've been more on top of it. It doesnt sound like they were off by some egregious amount, but the scoreboard is the scoreboard. Its a brutal situation. 

It came from here 

image.thumb.png.6d6dd4aff4545e35ba0ab8639e14848d.png

Edited by Ted Lange
Posted

Based on that post and what I’ve been told, what Texas Fight is saying seems accurate to me. 
 

There’s a lot of confusion about where the cabins are and where the mystic flood plan says to focus first. I think we need to let all parties report their pre flood plans, their actions during the event, and their post event thoughts about why they made the decisions they did. 

Posted

So…yall know that over 100 people died in Kerr county, not just the 27 people at Mystic, right?
Take Mystic out of the mix, because it’s drawing everyone offsides.
Over 3X as many people died mostly DOWNSTREAM from Mystic. So, consider the planning/warning (or lack thereof) as to the people downstream, who were within the jurisdiction of Kerr County officials, no camp directors involved.

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Posted

That’s to say that Mystic knew about the weather, was monitoring the situation, and in a huge storm had a plan that said campers should remain in their cabins instead of having them leave for higher ground. I think all of that is based on decades of experience, and they just completely underestimated this situation. 
 

Based on the conversation I had tonight, I think they stuck with their plan, and that was a fatal mistake. So much so, they realized it mid event, did what they could to get the girls out, and were just too late. Dick lost his life and his son Ed barely saved the girls that he could. Ed ended up in a tree with a bunch of the girls who all survived, except for one who was holding on for dear life to another girl. She lost grip and Ed (and I’m assuming some of the girls) watched her get swept away. 
 

What I haven’t heard is if that girl is the one who found a log to float on and got fished out by a Good Samaritan right next to La junta. 
 

That little girl was at church this Sunday playing king of the hill with about 30 other kids like nothing ever happened. My son was one of the ones being too rough with her and he had absolutely no idea that she was the little girl that his whole camp watched get evacuated by a Blackhawk helicopter from the La junta athletic field. I really am having trouble keeping up with the reality of all of it. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So…yall know that over 100 people died in Kerr county, not just the 27 people at Mystic, right?
Take Mystic out of the mix, because it’s drawing everyone offsides.
Over 3X as many people died mostly DOWNSTREAM from Mystic. So, consider the planning/warning (or lack thereof) as to the people downstream, who were within the jurisdiction of Kerr County officials, no camp directors involved.

And over 100 still missing and presumed dead 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So…yall know that over 100 people died in Kerr county, not just the 27 people at Mystic, right?
Take Mystic out of the mix, because it’s drawing everyone offsides.
Over 3X as many people died mostly DOWNSTREAM from Mystic. So, consider the planning/warning (or lack thereof) as to the people downstream, who were within the jurisdiction of Kerr County officials, no camp directors involved.

I don’t think you have to take camp mystic out of the mix. A warning system that gives them even 30 minutes notice turns into hours downstream. 

This is 8100 ft upstream from camp mystic. As an absolute last resort a warning from this point could have given them 15 minutes notice that the flood was on their doorstep instead of realizing it’s already in the cabin. 

IMG_5302.thumb.jpeg.1068cb637b5bb2fbde605397898f640f.jpeg

And this is 6.5 miles upstream. Perfectly reasonable place to collect usable data to provide advance notice of the impending flood. 

IMG_5304.thumb.jpeg.e2e6f4451b6379f21afc62de2bd7c542.jpeg

According to one article I saw the acting night watchman at the camp said he tried to check river water gauges and said several were broken or not returning data. The noaa website doesn’t show any active gauges on the south fork, so that may be true. All the more reason to take extra precautions. But also, if that is the case, it seems like it’d be known well in advance that there aren’t any functioning gauges on the south fork, so what is he checking for? 

But it’s 2025. How hard is it to figure out that if we get so many inches of rain in a given period the river is going to flood. My fucking dad can tell me right now how much rain fell at his house in the last hour in 15 minute increments without leaving his living room. 

All this to say, that it seems beyond negligent for a county that has thousands of kids camping and thousands more people living on a river that is known to have catastrophic floods to have never bothered to maintain a monitoring and warning system. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Hold on here, am I reading this right and that Mystics “emergency plan” was to have 10 year old girls, just hold tight in cabins that were yards from the river?    That can’t be correct.  

Nobody said it was a good emergency plan. 

Posted (edited)

Anyone who can’t see that there were failures at every level, from the federal government on down, isn’t worth the energy to argue with.  

In addition, Mystic will have blood on their hands and I’ll be amazed if it ever exists again…and if anything, all that pride in the history there proves they should have known better.  You’re ultimately responsible for hundreds of children and every account I’ve read has painted the picture of individual cabins being lead by teenagers suddenly finding themselves making impossible decisions.  Where were the adults?

They had their own impossible situations you say?  Ok, the whole point in designing, testing and practicing emergency plans is to take the time to think through ahead of time such that those decisions are made adtee careful analysis and can be executed without central coordination.  

They had an approved plan but it happened too fast?  They should have had an adult with a flashlight in communication with relevant info sources, fellow camp administrators, and local authorities.  You’re on a river during a huge storm, for fucks sake…with hundreds of children under your care, remember   

Yes it was unprecedented, no one foresaw the Charybdis-like whirlpool that complicated matters, and I cannot imagine the desperate horrors all the victims suffered…but when you sign up to manage hundreds of children for weeks at a time in a particularly dangerous spot within ‘flash flood alley’ then at the bare fucking minimum you better have your flood evac plan down cold, with multiple levels of severity.    

You should be fuckin ashamed of yourself TF.  You aren’t, but you should be.  My wife seemingly is afflicted with the same memory-influenced fondness from her time there that she doesn’t want to hear my utter disdain for how colossally Mystic fucked up…but this is Surly and I’m allowed to say you’re wrong as fuck, Texas Fight.  

I didn’t even touch on sirens…the fact people died because their brain was so poisoned by the disinformation machine as to reject free warning systems…you fucking people are too far gone to help, but thanks for attending my TED Talk.  

Edited by Homercles
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