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Posted

Hold on here, am I reading this right and that Mystics “emergency plan” was to have 10 year old girls, just hold tight in cabins that were yards from the river?    That can’t be correct.  

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Cajun said:

Caught this pulling out of the Canyon Lake Marina today while I was over there this afternoon -

View recent photos.jpeg

I’ve seen notices that Canyon Lake was going to have several out of state teams working ther this week 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I’ve seen notices that Canyon Lake was going to have several out of state teams working ther this week 

Yup -- 

Edited by Cajun
There were 4 ambulances & a fire truck there all with lights going. Seemed like they had found something.
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Posted
53 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Hold on here, am I reading this right and that Mystics “emergency plan” was to have 10 year old girls, just hold tight in cabins that were yards from the river?    That can’t be correct.  

I dont know whats being said, but that is most certainly not their emergency plan. Im not directing this at you, but I feel confident the Eastlands and their staff took significant care when it comes to flood planning. Its going to take some time for the details to come out.

That being said, I had dinner tonight with someone very close to the situation, and she tearfully stated to me that she thinks they could've been more on top of it. It doesnt sound like they were off by some egregious amount, but the scoreboard is the scoreboard. Its a brutal situation. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, BlackCat said:

I dont know whats being said, but that is most certainly not their emergency plan. Im not directing this at you, but I feel confident the Eastlands and their staff took significant care when it comes to flood planning. Its going to take some time for the details to come out.

That being said, I had dinner tonight with someone very close to the situation, and she tearfully stated to me that she thinks they could've been more on top of it. It doesnt sound like they were off by some egregious amount, but the scoreboard is the scoreboard. Its a brutal situation. 

It came from here 

image.thumb.png.6d6dd4aff4545e35ba0ab8639e14848d.png

Edited by Ted Lange
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Posted

Based on that post and what I’ve been told, what Texas Fight is saying seems accurate to me. 
 

There’s a lot of confusion about where the cabins are and where the mystic flood plan says to focus first. I think we need to let all parties report their pre flood plans, their actions during the event, and their post event thoughts about why they made the decisions they did. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So…yall know that over 100 people died in Kerr county, not just the 27 people at Mystic, right?
Take Mystic out of the mix, because it’s drawing everyone offsides.
Over 3X as many people died mostly DOWNSTREAM from Mystic. So, consider the planning/warning (or lack thereof) as to the people downstream, who were within the jurisdiction of Kerr County officials, no camp directors involved.

And over 100 still missing and presumed dead 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So…yall know that over 100 people died in Kerr county, not just the 27 people at Mystic, right?
Take Mystic out of the mix, because it’s drawing everyone offsides.
Over 3X as many people died mostly DOWNSTREAM from Mystic. So, consider the planning/warning (or lack thereof) as to the people downstream, who were within the jurisdiction of Kerr County officials, no camp directors involved.

I don’t think you have to take camp mystic out of the mix. A warning system that gives them even 30 minutes notice turns into hours downstream. 

This is 8100 ft upstream from camp mystic. As an absolute last resort a warning from this point could have given them 15 minutes notice that the flood was on their doorstep instead of realizing it’s already in the cabin. 

IMG_5302.thumb.jpeg.1068cb637b5bb2fbde605397898f640f.jpeg

And this is 6.5 miles upstream. Perfectly reasonable place to collect usable data to provide advance notice of the impending flood. 

IMG_5304.thumb.jpeg.e2e6f4451b6379f21afc62de2bd7c542.jpeg

According to one article I saw the acting night watchman at the camp said he tried to check river water gauges and said several were broken or not returning data. The noaa website doesn’t show any active gauges on the south fork, so that may be true. All the more reason to take extra precautions. But also, if that is the case, it seems like it’d be known well in advance that there aren’t any functioning gauges on the south fork, so what is he checking for? 

But it’s 2025. How hard is it to figure out that if we get so many inches of rain in a given period the river is going to flood. My fucking dad can tell me right now how much rain fell at his house in the last hour in 15 minute increments without leaving his living room. 

All this to say, that it seems beyond negligent for a county that has thousands of kids camping and thousands more people living on a river that is known to have catastrophic floods to have never bothered to maintain a monitoring and warning system. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

Hold on here, am I reading this right and that Mystics “emergency plan” was to have 10 year old girls, just hold tight in cabins that were yards from the river?    That can’t be correct.  

Nobody said it was a good emergency plan. 

Posted
10 hours ago, BlackCat said:

I feel confident the Eastlands and their staff took significant care when it comes to flood planning.

Think Tim Robinson GIF by NETFLIX

Posted
1 hour ago, Homercles said:

My wife seemingly is afflicted with the same memory-influenced fondness from her time there that she doesn’t want to hear my utter disdain for how colossally Mystic fucked up…

My wife has the same disdain, but an inability to apply that disdain to logic. We are in a nightly argument about Mystic’s survival chances. I say zero, she says they’ll come back.  She is slowly coming to my side as her dumbass friends slowly come around. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Anyone who can’t see that there were failures at every level, from the federal government on down, isn’t worth the energy to argue with.  

In addition, Mystic will have blood on their hands and I’ll be amazed if it ever exists again…and if anything, all that pride in the history there proves they should have known better.  You’re ultimately responsible for hundreds of children and every account I’ve read has painted the picture of individual cabins being lead by teenagers suddenly finding themselves making impossible decisions.  Where were the adults?

They had their own impossible situations you say?  Ok, the whole point in designing, testing and practicing emergency plans is to take the time to think through ahead of time such that those decisions are made adtee careful analysis and can be executed without central coordination.  

They had an approved plan but it happened too fast?  They should have had an adult with a flashlight in communication with relevant info sources, fellow camp administrators, and local authorities.  You’re on a river during a huge storm, for fucks sake…with hundreds of children under your care, remember   

Yes it was unprecedented, no one foresaw the Charybdis-like whirlpool that complicated matters, and I cannot imagine the desperate horrors all the victims suffered…but when you sign up to manage hundreds of children for weeks at a time in a particularly dangerous spot within ‘flash flood alley’ then at the bare fucking minimum you better have your flood evac plan down cold, with multiple levels of severity.    

You should be fuckin ashamed of yourself TF.  You aren’t, but you should be.  My wife seemingly is afflicted with the same memory-influenced fondness from her time there that she doesn’t want to hear my utter disdain for how colossally Mystic fucked up…but this is Surly and I’m allowed to say you’re wrong as fuck, Texas Fight.  

I didn’t even touch on sirens…the fact people died because their brain was so poisoned by the disinformation machine as to reject free warning systems…you fucking people are too far gone to help, but thanks for attending my TED Talk.  

once a day, we should be able to bestow triple-rep in the form of a mushroom cloud emoji

the above post is my nuke of the day

i have been trying so hard to abide by "the rules" in dt and tf has been making it very difficult

thank you homercles

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Posted
1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Anyone who can’t see that there were failures at every level, from the federal government on down, isn’t worth the energy to argue with.  

In addition, Mystic will have blood on their hands and I’ll be amazed if it ever exists again…and if anything, all that pride in the history there proves they should have known better.  You’re ultimately responsible for hundreds of children and every account I’ve read has painted the picture of individual cabins being lead by teenagers suddenly finding themselves making impossible decisions.  Where were the adults?

They had their own impossible situations you say?  Ok, the whole point in designing, testing and practicing emergency plans is to take the time to think through ahead of time such that those decisions are made adtee careful analysis and can be executed without central coordination.  

They had an approved plan but it happened too fast?  They should have had an adult with a flashlight in communication with relevant info sources, fellow camp administrators, and local authorities.  You’re on a river during a huge storm, for fucks sake…with hundreds of children under your care, remember   

Yes it was unprecedented, no one foresaw the Charybdis-like whirlpool that complicated matters, and I cannot imagine the desperate horrors all the victims suffered…but when you sign up to manage hundreds of children for weeks at a time in a particularly dangerous spot within ‘flash flood alley’ then at the bare fucking minimum you better have your flood evac plan down cold, with multiple levels of severity.    

You should be fuckin ashamed of yourself TF.  You aren’t, but you should be.  My wife seemingly is afflicted with the same memory-influenced fondness from her time there that she doesn’t want to hear my utter disdain for how colossally Mystic fucked up…but this is Surly and I’m allowed to say you’re wrong as fuck, Texas Fight.  

I didn’t even touch on sirens…the fact people died because their brain was so poisoned by the disinformation machine as to reject free warning systems…you fucking people are too far gone to help, but thanks for attending my TED Talk.  

The camp planning and alumni response has the feeling of aggy and the bonfire tragedy.  

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Deej said:

The camp planning and alumni response has the feeling of aggy and the bonfire tragedy.  

Man....that's a bit spot-on.

But also, it's spot-on enough that I think that Mystic, in some form, will survive and continue.  Too many people with an interest and desire in seeing it do so.

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Posted
11 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

And over 100 still missing and presumed dead 

Is there a best website/source that has these statistics and updates them? I assume they are past the point of finding bodies daily now. Just a trickle with many never to be found at all. Just wondering what the current stats are. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Man....that's a bit spot-on.

But also, it's spot-on enough that I think that Mystic, in some form, will survive and continue.  Too many people with an interest and desire in seeing it do so.

Too many others will vilify those that try and start it up again. It will never be on that land, and never involve Eastlands.  I mean they could retain the name but is it really Mystic?  

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Posted
1 minute ago, jkates said:

Is there a best website/source that has these statistics and updates them? I assume they are past the point of finding bodies daily now. Just a trickle with many never to be found at all. Just wondering what the current stats are. 

I haven’t found one. I found a link dated yesterday to still missing and that’s what it said not sure if it was updated that day. I guess there could even be missing people no one has reported missing yet. Just unbelievably sad

Posted (edited)

i posted this a week ago in cr

after further review i can't see anything in it that is "against the rules" of dt so here you go:

+++

How do the failed barriers fit together?

The 2025 atrocity is neither a 2025 problem, nor a 2025 camp/citizen/tourist problem, nor a 2025 State/County/City government problem.  It is instead a true example of an organizational accident with causes that existed for some time before the event.  While no one person is responsible for the atrocity, the aggregate effect of actions and decisions by government officials and those they serve, over many years, created the physical conditions that made the atrocity possible.

For the current State, County and Local governments, Guadalupe Flooding was, and is, an institution.  And leaders do not change institutions unless there is a clearly perceived need for change.

Guadalupe Flooding has grown from isolated events lost in institutional memories trapped in time into an atrocity with massive loss of life.  From just a dozen deaths to hundreds.  From the occasional high-water cleanup to a 100-year event every 10 years.  For Guadalupe Flooding, the State, County and Local government’s role was to ensure that controls were in place so that if and when a flood occurred, the results would be non-consequential.  But as Guadalupe Flooding has grown in frequency and intensity, the actions and decisions by government officials, taken or not taken, to prevent the flooding, have remained the same.

The State of Texas, Kerr County and the City of Kerrville do not have a proactive risk management approach for Guadalupe Flooding.  As a result, behavioral and safety problems never prompted past or present administrations to reassess Guadalupe Flooding risk to campers, citizens and tourists.

The State of Texas, Kerr County and the City of Kerrville have a culture that instills bias and tunnel vision in decision making.  No one in the current or past administrations ever interpreted ongoing behavioral problems as indications that Guadalupe Flooding risk mitigation was beyond the capabilities of past or present administrations.

There was no appropriate plan, policy or program to mitigate the risk of Guadalupe Flooding.  Instead, important design details were communicated through an oral tradition.  As a result, Guadalupe Flooding risk mitigation was never undertaken the same way twice, even though the accepted basis for risk mitigation was “we have always done it this way, and it has always worked.”  Thus, changes made in the absence of a sound risk mitigation strategy reduced critical margins of safety.

Kerr County and City of Kerrville leaders were the sole design authority for Guadalupe Flooding risk mitigation. Yet they did not have the knowledge or skills necessary to identify and correct structural and institutional deficiencies of the type that caused the 2025 atrocity.

Though its individual components are complex, the central message is clear.  The atrocity was about physical failures driven by organizational failures, the origins of which span decades.  No single factor caused the atrocity, just as no single change will ensure that a tragedy like this never happens again. 

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/44760-4th-of-july-texas-flood/page/29/#comment-7195227

 

Edited by Hagbard Celine
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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

So…yall know that over 100 people died in Kerr county, not just the 27 people at Mystic, right?
Take Mystic out of the mix, because it’s drawing everyone offsides.
Over 3X as many people died mostly DOWNSTREAM from Mystic. So, consider the planning/warning (or lack thereof) as to the people downstream, who were within the jurisdiction of Kerr County officials, no camp directors involved.

This is why Kerr County government needs an enema. 

On the Mystic stuff, the circles I am in are more sobered with respect to the future of the camp and camp management's responsibilities.  We aren't sending our daughter back to even Cypress Lake if it is open, and we are hardly the only ones.  I think many are sad because the family is a good family, but as a result of years of bad decisions, complacency, hubris, etc., this happened.  In some ways, it was inevitable something like this was going to happen at one of these camps for those reasons.  So I get the bonfire comparisons, and there are certainly some evangelists out there.  But the bill will come due.  It's OK for people associated with the camp to be sad about it, but I think most that I've talked to also expect accountability and know what that means.  

On the Kerr County side, it's more maddening because there won't be any accountability.  None.  The tourists and campers will be back next summer.  Any explanation as to why there won't be accountability gets too CR for the sensitive ears on this forum, I guess, and is reflective of the f'd up priorities of our electorate at every level.  

 

[EDITED TO ADD "FOR THOSE REASONS".  I AM NOT EXCUSING IT AS INEVITABLE SO WE JUST THROW UP OUR HANDS.  I MEAN I BET A LOT OF THESE CAMPS (PROBABLY NOT ALL) MADE THE SAME MISTAKES AS MYSTIC, AND AS A RESULT, A DISASTER WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN EVENTUALLY]

 

Edited by A-Tex Devil
Posted

Sometimes, something gets broken beyond fixing.  I'd be surprised if Mystic ever reopens.  Beyond the main force behind it being dead, the name will be toxic, like 3 Mile Island.  No one will want to trust their kids to anything associated with that name.  Something else will fill its void to provide similar experience for Texas' girls/young women of means, something that is going to have safety measures that hold up to increased scrutiny.  If not from government/regulatory agencies, then from parents who are entrusting a third party to be responsible for their child.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Sometimes, something gets broken beyond fixing.  I'd be surprised if Mystic ever reopens.  Beyond the main force behind it being dead, the name will be toxic, like 3 Mile Island.  No one will want to trust their kids to anything associated with that name.  Something else will fill its void to provide similar experience for Texas' girls/young women of means, something that is going to have safety measures that hold up to increased scrutiny.  If not from government/regulatory agencies, then from parents who are entrusting a third party to be responsible for their child.

beyond the toxicity of the name I would think it would be tough and/or insanely expensive to get insurance for the place 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

You serious, Clark?

https://apnews.com/article/camp-mystic-floods-state-inspection-ef17d51dc7868fa9cc5c3076c31ed98a (published July 8th)

HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.

The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.

Edited by Captainant
Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

https://apnews.com/article/camp-mystic-floods-state-inspection-ef17d51dc7868fa9cc5c3076c31ed98a (published July 8th)

HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.

The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.

Yeah, well they failed. And as @Brisketexan said, the focus is on the camps, but lets remember we lost a hell of a lot more people. We probably will never know the total count. 

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Posted
11 hours ago, Rudiger said:

Nobody said it was a good emergency plan. 

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

The state of Texas said it was good enough, for starters.

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

https://apnews.com/article/camp-mystic-floods-state-inspection-ef17d51dc7868fa9cc5c3076c31ed98a (published July 8th)

HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.

The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.

My response was more about your implication that just because the state of Texas signed off on the plan it was a good one.  

Posted
37 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Sometimes, something gets broken beyond fixing.  I'd be surprised if Mystic ever reopens.  Beyond the main force behind it being dead, the name will be toxic, like 3 Mile Island.  No one will want to trust their kids to anything associated with that name.  Something else will fill its void to provide similar experience for Texas' girls/young women of means, something that is going to have safety measures that hold up to increased scrutiny.  If not from government/regulatory agencies, then from parents who are entrusting a third party to be responsible for their child.

Well they're currently reopening TMI to support Microsoft AI sooooooooo

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Posted
4 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

My response was more about your implication that just because the state of Texas signed off on the plan it was a good one.  

Most regulations like the one at issue simply require that you have a plan.  It's not evaluated for effectiveness, other than sometimes requiring that it have certain specific elements, that sort of thing.  While I'm exaggerating SLIGHTLY for effect here, a flood plan of "hope like hell every kid is an olympic-level swimmer and tell 'em 'swim hard!'" might meet the state requirement of "have a plan."

And that's not nonsensical -- the state simply doesn't have the resources (even in the best of times, with full funding of things that actually benefit the people) to do a detailed review of every emergency action plan for every licensed facility.  Hell, insurance companies sometimes require that you have such a plan to qualify for coverage, but even they don't review it and say "hmm....have you maybe thought of having an evacuation component in this one?"

Loss prevention/risk mitigation is done in layers.  E.g., to avoid highway deaths, we 1) have well-constructed and well-maintained roads, 2) with speed limits and other cautionary requirements (curve ahead, etc.), 3) with safety requirements and inspections for large vehicles like trucks, 4) with passenger cars having crash avoidance technology (warning bells and such if you're approaching traffic too fast), 5) with passenger cars having passenger protection features (crumple zones, seatbelts, air bags).  Sometimes, one or more of those fail, and people die.  Often, one or more of those either prevents a collision from ever happening, or ensures that people survive when it does.

All risk mitigation is like that.  You can't "flood-proof" the entire world.  But you can install layers of protection: 1) no structures allowed in floodways, 2) requirements that facilities in floodplains have robust flood emergency plans, shared with all visitors and guests, 3) a robust and real warning system, using cell phone notifications and river level sirens, etc.  People will still die in the worst floods.  But not as many as would have otherwise.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Most regulations like the one at issue simply require that you have a plan.  It's not evaluated for effectiveness, other than sometimes requiring that it have certain specific elements, that sort of thing.  While I'm exaggerating SLIGHTLY for effect here, a flood plan of "hope like hell every kid is an olympic-level swimmer and tell 'em 'swim hard!'" might meet the state requirement of "have a plan."

And that's not nonsensical -- the state simply doesn't have the resources (even in the best of times, with full funding of things that actually benefit the people) to do a detailed review of every emergency action plan for every licensed facility.  Hell, insurance companies sometimes require that you have such a plan to qualify for coverage, but even they don't review it and say "hmm....have you maybe thought of having an evacuation component in this one?"

Loss prevention/risk mitigation is done in layers.  E.g., to avoid highway deaths, we 1) have well-constructed and well-maintained roads, 2) with speed limits and other cautionary requirements (curve ahead, etc.), 3) with safety requirements and inspections for large vehicles like trucks, 4) with passenger cars having crash avoidance technology (warning bells and such if you're approaching traffic too fast), 5) with passenger cars having passenger protection features (crumple zones, seatbelts, air bags).  Sometimes, one or more of those fail, and people die.  Often, one or more of those either prevents a collision from ever happening, or ensures that people survive when it does.

All risk mitigation is like that.  You can't "flood-proof" the entire world.  But you can install layers of protection: 1) no structures allowed in floodways, 2) requirements that facilities in floodplains have robust flood emergency plans, shared with all visitors and guests, 3) a robust and real warning system, using cell phone notifications and river level sirens, etc.  People will still die in the worst floods.  But not as many as would have otherwise.

Dumb.png

So you're saying there's a plan?

Posted
4 hours ago, Homercles said:

You’re on a river during a huge storm, for fucks sake…with hundreds of children under your care, remember

Your whole post was excellent but it led to a thought-as an OIF veteran, if we ran an op with 700 Marines involved and a had 27 KIA’s, heads would most certainly roll.  
 

And that’s in a theater where casualties would be expected.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, Goredho said:

Sometimes, something gets broken beyond fixing.  I'd be surprised if Mystic ever reopens.  Beyond the main force behind it being dead, the name will be toxic, like 3 Mile Island.  No one will want to trust their kids to anything associated with that name.  Something else will fill its void to provide similar experience for Texas' girls/young women of means, something that is going to have safety measures that hold up to increased scrutiny.  If not from government/regulatory agencies, then from parents who are entrusting a third party to be responsible for their child.

I wonder if Heart of the Hills suffers the same fate...

La Junta just posted something about working to restore so they can welcome all campers back next summer so maybe since they did not have that same loss they could recover but are there going to be tons of families that now decide not to send them back. My daughter is a Guad camper at Mystic and is emphatic that she only wants to go to Mystic not anywhere else. However, I would agree that even the Cypress Lake camp may not reopen so I'm having to figure out what other options there might be. Unfortunately, there just are not a ton of Central TX options for all girls camps with that same feel.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I wonder if Heart of the Hills suffers the same fate...

La Junta just posted something about working to restore so they can welcome all campers back next summer so maybe since they did not have that same loss they could recover but are there going to be tons of families that now decide not to send them back. My daughter is a Guad camper at Mystic and is emphatic that she only wants to go to Mystic not anywhere else. However, I would agree that even the Cypress Lake camp may not reopen so I'm having to figure out what other options there might be. Unfortunately, there just are not a ton of Central TX options for all girls camps with that same feel.

Maybe reach out to the families of some other campers your daughter knows through mystic and coordinate how all your kids can wind up at the same place?  Being with friends from Mystic at camp whatever might make it more palatable to your daughter.

Posted
3 hours ago, A-Tex Devil said:

But the bill will come due.  It's OK for people associated with the camp to be sad about it, but I think most that I've talked to also expect accountability and know what that means.  

Was speaking to a neighbor who is a lawyer and friends with a parent who had a daughter attend CM that week (daughter is fine).  Anyway, she said all it will take is for one family to use and then floodgates will open.  There will be one.

Posted
3 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Unfortunately, there just are not a ton of Central TX options for all girls camps with that same feel.

Try Waldemar if you can get in. There’s a waitlist longer than Mystic. Here’s a pic with waterline on trees opposite camp:

image.thumb.jpeg.e6546a7a708eb383efd0f271a4a864d6.jpeg

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