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Posted
6 minutes ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

Except nobody on that list has anything as good as wins over: 3, 8, 12 as you can see..... the Florida St loss is just as bad as the Florida loss at this point. If Vandy wins out Tennessee will be unranked, same with Michigan if they lose to Ohio St. 

 

You're also acting like Alabama didn't survive losing to 3-7 South Carolina.

we sucked most weeks you're leaving that out and that's a huge factor here. Frankly I think it's the biggest factor, Texas has looked like utter dog shit for most of the season. surviving one bad game no biggie. sucking in 8 out of 11 games matters. getting your ass fucking handed to you on what was probably the biggest SEC weekend of the year (Texas/UGA and OU/Bama) really matters.

you all act like Texas is the best two loss team out there in this no tOSU scenario. that's just not fucking true, or it's at least legitimately arguable.

we are a mid team this year, we've played like it and we are being treated like it. and any argument that but for tOSU this is a top 10 team is just odd. there's no room for that Texas team in the top 10 right now.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Say it again for the morons who think 9-3 Texas gets in the playoff. Loss column is still the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

Depending on how it shakes out if we win the committee may very well have to confront the fact that keeping Texas out will result in significant scheduling changes for all teams (and a huge blow to the networks that are trying to push for more marquee OOC inventory).  I don't think we know definitively what they would do on the final vote.  Again, Texas-OSU is the highest rated game of the year to date.   Networks WANT a 9 game conference schedule + top OOC games.  Conference want the same so they can charge higher rights fees.   Sankey went to 9 + 1 on the basis that strength of record matters going forward.  If committee ignores that and 9-3 Texas is left out in a scenario where it is abundantly clear a 10-2 Texas with a win against Sam Houston would be in, it throws all of that out the window.    I think there will be a lot of pressure on the committee to avoid that.

It's why I want to see the last spot come down to a 10-2 Vandy or a 9-3 Texas.  That would pretty much definitively answer the question given the H2H win if not "counting losses".   Klatt had a segment on this several weeks back.  He said there was a points based model floated internally at some point where a loss to a top 5 teams is worth more than a win to a bottom tier team.  But if they aren't going to follow that, fine, let everyone know so SEC teams stop risking seasons scheduling 50/50 OOC games years in advance.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

2008?

 

and not in the champ game. which you disingenuously removed from my post.

Edited by dcar00
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Posted

Texas with wins over GA, A&M, Vandy and OK was in, even with the two losses, Texas was in over any team with two losses, even if the playoffs were top 6 Texas was in over teams with 1 loss like say Oregon. That would have been a salivating schedule vs an Oregon team that skipped tOSU even if they were on the same damn conference.

You can't argue the same if we had played Rice, but lost to UF and Georgia sorry I just don't see it.

The key part being ignored is the size of the playoff berth, top 16 and UT is in. but Top 12 and we are in the bubble. We WERE given the benefit of the doubt even on teams with fewer losses, we just shat our pants in Athens, that is why we are bubble but on the outside looking in.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Depending on how it shakes out if we win the committee may very well have to confront the fact that keeping Texas out will result in significant scheduling changes for all teams (and a huge blow to the networks that are trying to push for more marquee OOC inventory).  I don't think we know definitively what they would do on the final vote.  Again, Texas-OSU is the highest rated game of the year to date.   Networks WANT a 9 game conference schedule + top OOC games.  Conference want the same so they can charge higher rights fees.   Sankey went to 9 + 1 on the basis that strength of record matters going forward.  If committee ignores that and 9-3 Texas is left out in a scenario where it is abundantly clear a 10-2 Texas with a win against Sam Houston would be in, it throws all of that out the window.    I think there will be a lot of pressure on the committee to avoid that.

It's why I want to see the last spot come down to a 10-2 Vandy or a 9-3 Texas.  That would pretty much definitively answer the question given the H2H win if not "counting losses".   Klatt had a segment on this several weeks back.  He said there was a points based model floated internally at some point where a loss to a top 5 teams is worth more than a win to a bottom tier team.  But if they aren't going to follow that, fine, let everyone know so SEC teams stop risking seasons scheduling 50/50 OOC games years in advance.

does SOR include margin of victory or is is SOS?  I can't remember.

Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

does SOR include margin of victory or is is SOS?  I can't remember.

I don't think whatever model they use is public.

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Posted

Has anybody ask the CFP committee if Texas is being evaluated against the 2 loss teams? If not, they lied through their teeth about encouraging big time OOC games. 
 

That said, our season ended at Florida. We can lie to ourselves to make it feel better, but it was over October 4th.

The only thing in front of this team now is preventing aggy from playing for the SEC Title.

Posted
5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Has anybody ask the CFP committee if Texas is being evaluated against the 2 loss teams? If not, they lied through their teeth about encouraging big time OOC games. 
 

That said, our season ended at Florida. We can lie to ourselves to make it feel better, but it was over October 4th.

The only thing in front of this team now is preventing aggy from playing for the SEC Title.

We can all feel a certain way about our season and given what this team has shown on the road I'm not sure we could win a first round game against any potential opponent.  But the reality is, if Texas wins it absolutely has a playoff caliber resume considering strength of schedule.   I want us to win for all the obvious reasons but would really like to force a committee decision that will clarify how we should schedule going forward.  I love playing the big OOC games but we absolutely shouldn't do it if it's clear the committee isn't going account for vast scheduling discrepancies.   

I want us to be 9-3 and look at the final rankings and project (i) where would we be slotted 10-2 with a W against Ohio State, (ii) where would we be slotted 10-2 with a W against Sam Houston (replacing OSU) and (iii) where we are actually slotted.  If we don't think there is a meaningful difference between the first 2 scenarios (i.e., just at the front of the 2 loss teams so maybe a couple of spots) and 9-3 with the OSU loss slots us out all together, it becomes pretty clear there is no reason to schedule tough OOC.

Posted
54 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

It’s pretty simple that you don’t know what the word “relevant” means.

If had beaten Florida (not the #1 team on our schedule), we’d be going to the playoffs, most likely even with a 3rd loss to A&M. Because we did not, we most likely don’t make the playoffs, even after we beat them. That’s the situation. 

Posted
43 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

If had beaten Florida (not the #1 team on our schedule), we’d be going to the playoffs, most likely even with a 3rd loss to A&M. Because we did not, we most likely don’t make the playoffs, even after we beat them. That’s the situation. 

And if we'd beaten Ohio St or Georgia (or just replaced Ohio State with Samford on our schedule), we'd also be going to the playoffs. Relevant. 

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Posted

It's an SEC requirement to have at least one P4 school on your schedule. So you guys need to come up with better alternate teams than Samford and Rice. At least do like whiny fat Ketch and say Baylor instead of Ohio State. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, mdmost said:

It's an SEC requirement to have at least one P4 school on your schedule. So you guys need to come up with better alternate teams than Samford and Rice. At least do like whiny fat Ketch and say Baylor instead of Ohio State. 

A quick google search brings up these 2026 schedules

Vandy: NC State, Austin Peay, Delaware

Missouri: Arkansas Pine Bluff, Troy, Kansas

Auburn: Baylor, Southern Miss, Jacksonville State

Ole Miss: Charlotte and Wofford (don’t have a third team scheduled yet)

Miss State: ULM, Minnesota, Troy

Posted

Who wants to go to this fun UT warehouse where they sell surplus stuff like office equipment, books, and all sorts of weird stuff? You can buy a cool football locker, cleats and I want that super-huge, metal UT logo! 

 

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Posted
10 hours ago, scramblyn said:

 

That’s an impossibility. If Texas wins they don’t go to Atlanta.

That not correct.

if Ole Miss loses egg bowl and Bama loses iron bowl Aggie is in regardless of our game outcome 

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Posted

Too late to edit…

we ended our season last year at Aggie, UGA in CCG, ACC champ, B12 champ, then got knocked out by OSU in semis.  
That’s a lot of wear and tear.   Beat the shit out of Aggie, then I fucking hope the egg and iron bowl go the way that they get UGA in CCG.  
 

Maybe they beat UGA but at least make them work for the 1st round bye, see how they hold up with at least 3 quality opponents in a row to either earn the crowing or shut the fuck up already.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

A quick google search brings up these 2026 schedules

Vandy: NC State, Austin Peay, Delaware

Missouri: Arkansas Pine Bluff, Troy, Kansas

Auburn: Baylor, Southern Miss, Jacksonville State

Ole Miss: Charlotte and Wofford (don’t have a third team scheduled yet)

Miss State: ULM, Minnesota, Troy

I’m all for Texas playing the top tiers.   I mean this is horse poop .

 

8 hours ago, mdmost said:

It's an SEC requirement to have at least one P4 school on your schedule. So you guys need to come up with better alternate teams than Samford and Rice. At least do like whiny fat Ketch and say Baylor instead of Ohio State. 

For arguments sake.  Heck no to playing a Rig 12 Texas school or any of the original members for that matter.  We do have Arizona State scheduled a few years down the road, but I wonder if that was done before their jump to the Rig 12?     

If we want to take up Ketch’s suggestion,   we should schedule that P4 slot for someone like a Purdue, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia and do it with one year contracts to insure its a home game.   But no, keep the Ohio States, Michigans, and Norte Dames please. 

Edited by Nueces River Rat
Posted
10 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

It’s so cute to watch folks try their best to explain why we should get into the playoffs. 

Dude, we're getting in because of Arch. College wants the mouth breathing NFL fans to tune in. All the CFB wonks on this site are overthinking it. NONE OF IT MATTERS.

  • Haha 2
Posted

A parlay of Miami, OU, Vandy, BYU, Utah, Bama and a&m losing is +518047 or .02% chance to unfold. 

 

happy ford GIF

 

But................ a $10 bet would win you almost $52k so get your slips in!

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Irish Wrist Watch said:

Gruden just said that if we beat Aggy, that we should be the twelfth team - that they want Arch in the playoffs.

They would need to slot us in over Vandy at #14 for this to maybe happen. My guess is they will do something stupid and put Michigan over us in the scenario they beat tOSU and to avoid the H2H comparisons with Vandy. 

Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Has anybody ask the CFP committee if Texas is being evaluated against the 2 loss teams? If not, they lied through their teeth about encouraging big time OOC games. 
 

That said, our season ended at Florida. We can lie to ourselves to make it feel better, but it was over October 4th.

The only thing in front of this team now is preventing aggy from playing for the SEC Title.

I mean you don’t have to ask them, Texas is the highest ranked three loss team and above teams with 2 losses including a traditional power like Michigan. 
 

image.thumb.png.abd0496bdf94a3e8fde67f401ebe39a7.png

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I mean you don’t have to ask them, Texas is the highest ranked three loss team and above teams with 2 losses including a traditional power like Michigan. 
 

image.thumb.png.abd0496bdf94a3e8fde67f401ebe39a7.png

But behind several two loss teams. We’ll jump Ga Tech and USC but likely still be behind Miami (probably fair), Utah (0 ranked wins, marquee ooc game was UCLA), and Vandy (won head to head and their ooc game was Virginia Tech).

Posted

Outside of seeing exactly where they slotted us, I'm most interested to see what they do with Utah this week after giving up 470 rushing yards to Kansas State at home.  I mentioned the first rankings set that I thought they put them too high which could cause an issue down the road given that they had to keep the Tech/BYU winner ahead of them and that is playing out.  This is an opportunity to move them back if they want after a shitty performance in a home W.  Of course, the problem with moving them back is it gets Miami closer and reinforces their Miami/ND problem.

Posted
28 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I mean you don’t have to ask them, Texas is the highest ranked three loss team and above teams with 2 losses including a traditional power like Michigan. 
 

image.thumb.png.abd0496bdf94a3e8fde67f401ebe39a7.png

i dont know how old this is, but Georgia Tech is 9-2 and USC is 8-3.

Posted

Bringing maths to the discussion from my model:

On (not) playing tOSU:

Beating a patsy would improve our SOR from 15 to 12.  All else the same, would not change our current ranking or improve it one spot in the poll.

Beating an average P4 team instead would improve our SOR from 15 to 11 and probably good for one spot in the poll.

-----

Win over aggy improves our SOR to 10 and is likely worth two spots, depending on style points.

-----

My interpretation is that SOR is not our issue this year.  Failure to play complete games and really put away and dominate average teams is the bigger issue.

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Posted
1 minute ago, yoladu said:

i dont know how old this is, but Georgia Tech is 9-2 and USC is 8-3.

It’s the most recent ranking, the new CFP ranking comes out Tuesday. 
 

The question was whether UT is being considered among other two loss teams and the answer is clearly “yes.” 

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Posted
18 hours ago, Skipper said:

We can all feel a certain way about our season and given what this team has shown on the road I'm not sure we could win a first round game against any potential opponent. 

uh...we already have a win against a team that will be in the playoffs (OU) and another that has an outside shot to get in (Vandy). 

Not every playoff team is Ohio State and Georgia. 

14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Outside of seeing exactly where they slotted us, I'm most interested to see what they do with Utah this week after giving up 470 rushing yards to Kansas State at home.

IMHO the Big XII is a one bid league. 

I don't think we get in, but a win against aggy will definitely make us part of the conversation. Many of the teams we'll be compared to don't have the number of quality wins we'd have in that scenario. 

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Posted
18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Has anybody ask the CFP committee if Texas is being evaluated against the 2 loss teams? If not, they lied through their teeth about encouraging big time OOC games. 
 

That said, our season ended at Florida. We can lie to ourselves to make it feel better, but it was over October 4th.

The only thing in front of this team now is preventing aggy from playing for the SEC Title.

Disagree.  Lose to Florida and then beat Georgia and aggy in 2 of the last 3 weeks, its playoffs for sure.  

Posted
14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

uh...we already have a win against a team that will be in the playoffs (OU) and another that has an outside shot to get in (Vandy). 

Not every playoff team is Ohio State and Georgia. 

I like this team more than most of this board.  But after 2 years of being a really good road team, we have pretty much consistently played poorly on the road this season.  That was my point.  I don't trust this team to go on the road and put together 4 quarters against anyone much less a top 10 team.  Sure they have the potential to do so but we just haven't done it once this season to date.  Neutral site?  I would give us a punchers chance against anyone.

Posted
25 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Bringing maths to the discussion from my model:

On (not) playing tOSU:

Beating a patsy would improve our SOR from 15 to 12.  All else the same, would not change our current ranking or improve it one spot in the poll.

Beating an average P4 team instead would improve our SOR from 15 to 11 and probably good for one spot in the poll.

-----

Win over aggy improves our SOR to 10 and is likely worth two spots, depending on style points.

-----

My interpretation is that SOR is not our issue this year.  Failure to play complete games and really put away and dominate average teams is the bigger issue.

you failed to account for TV viewership metrics , we beat a&m and it would not surprise me to see the committee twist itself to make texas as the first 9-3 team to participate in the playoffs 

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I like this team more than most of this board.  But after 2 years of being a really good road team, we have pretty much consistently played poorly on the road this season.  That was my point.  I don't trust this team to go on the road and put together 4 quarters against anyone much less a top 10 team.  Sure they have the potential to do so but we just haven't done it once this season to date.  Neutral site?  I would give us a punchers chance against anyone.

Same, generally when you feel it is a tragedy is when it is a really really good team that got fucked by a nuclear schedule from hell (which kinda was this year, or even worse Florida's SOS). This team making the playoffs means playing Oregon in Eugene, ND in South Bend, Tech in Lubbock etc.  A&M Georgia and OU are probably avoided since the committee does not like rematches.

This team averages low double digit ppg on the road.

Edited by linux
Posted

The rankings are bullshit.  Head-to-head wins don't matter.  Strength of schedule doesn't matter. The metric should be - if these two teams played, who would likely win?  We have losses to the No. 1 and 4 teams in the country.  In a vacuum, that could mean that you are ranked as high as No. 5.  But it almost never does.  The loss to Florida fucked us in this current system.  Losses to unranked teams count too much.  Losses to higher ranked teams, especially in the Top 10, don't count as a positive factor at all.  Use the head-to-head metric. Who would likely win if we played Tech, BYU, Miami?  We'd win every one of those games.  We've already beaten Vanderbilt (12) and OU (8).  How the fuck are teams we beat "better" than us?  Makes no fucking sense.  I'd take our odds against anyone ranked outside of the top 4.  Oregon lost to the only really good team they played.  Penn St. was No. 3 at the time Oregon beat them, but that ranking has proven to be way fucked. Wins at Iowa at 20?  USC at 15?  Please.  Our wins over OU and Vandy are both better than those. Ole Miss lost to Georgia by 8; we lost by 25.  They have wins over LSU (then No. 4) and OU.  I'd say they should be ranked ahead of us. Tech hasn't played a bluebood.  Wins over No. 16 Utah and No. 7 BYU.  And a loss to unranked Arizona St.  No fucking way they should be ranked ahead of us.  ND lost to Miami and A&M.  They had no other games against really good teams.  USC and Pitt are their best wins.  Fucking please. I could go on and on.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

The rankings are bullshit.  Head-to-head wins don't matter.  Strength of schedule doesn't matter. The metric should be - if these two teams played, who would likely win?  We have losses to the No. 1 and 4 teams in the country.  In a vacuum, that could mean that you are ranked as high as No. 5.  But it almost never does.  The loss to Florida fucked us in this current system.  Losses to unranked teams count too much.  Losses to higher ranked teams, especially in the Top 10, don't count as a positive factor at all.  Use the head-to-head metric. Who would likely win if we played Tech, BYU, Miami?  We'd win every one of those games.  We've already beaten Vanderbilt (12) and OU (8).  How the fuck are teams we beat "better" than us?  Makes no fucking sense.  I'd take our odds against anyone ranked outside of the top 4.  Oregon lost to the only really good team they played.  Penn St. was No. 3 at the time Oregon beat them, but that ranking has proven to be way fucked. Wins at Iowa at 20?  USC at 15?  Please.  Our wins over OU and Vandy are both better than those. Ole Miss lost to Georgia by 8; we lost by 25.  They have wins over LSU (then No. 4) and OU.  I'd say they should be ranked ahead of us. Tech hasn't played a bluebood.  Wins over No. 16 Utah and No. 7 BYU.  And a loss to unranked Arizona St.  No fucking way they should be ranked ahead of us.  ND lost to Miami and A&M.  They had no other games against really good teams.  USC and Pitt are their best wins.  Fucking please. I could go on and on.

I mean why not just cancel the season and award it to the preseason #1 team? 

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Posted

Way too much aggie-like "we have good losses" in here.     We have 3 losses.   I don't care who they are to.    If we get in by a hair, great, i'll take our chances and hope.   But if we get left out we have no one else to blame but ourselves.    

And you can't just use head to head; otherwise Georgia can't be ahead of Bama who can't be ahead of OU who can't be ahead of Texas who can't be ahead of Georgia.    

ND would run for 400 yards against us - if the metric is If these two teams played, who would likely win.   I'll take ND.

 

Posted
19 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

It’s so cute to watch folks try their best to explain why we should get into the playoffs. 

Wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first. 


You shouldn’t need a string board to figure out if your team has earned a playoff spot. 
 

Bad news for all the olds on here who still believe players still play for the name on the front of the Jersey. Opt outs are going to start rolling in, immediately after this game if not before. 
 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Mr. Drummond said:

ND would run for 400 yards against us - if the metric is If these two teams played, who would likely win.   I'll take ND.

 

huh? If Miami can beat them we sure as hell could.

Posted
10 minutes ago, linux said:

I mean why not just cancel the season and award it to the preseason #1 team? 

Huh?  I think you missed the point about the rankings being bullshit.  In fact, there shouldn't even be a fucking preseason ranking.  That's probably dumbest of all.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Mr. Drummond said:

Way too much aggie-like "we have good losses" in here.     We have 3 losses.   I don't care who they are to.    If we get in by a hair, great, i'll take our chances and hope.   But if we get left out we have no one else to blame but ourselves.    

And you can't just use head to head; otherwise Georgia can't be ahead of Bama who can't be ahead of OU who can't be ahead of Texas who can't be ahead of Georgia.    

ND would run for 400 yards against us - if the metric is If these two teams played, who would likely win.   I'll take ND.

 

I agree that "good losses" are an aggie thing, but a loss to OSU is different than a loss to Arizona St.

Posted
20 hours ago, scramblyn said:

we are a mid team this year,

That is 2-2 against top-10 teams.  You need to re-calibrate your vocabulary.  While the season hasn't been up to Texas standards, this is easily a top quintile FBS team that has the talent to beat anyone on the schedule.  There are 80+ FBS teams that would be jizzing themselves over the season we are having.

Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

That is 2-2 against top-10 teams.  You need to re-calibrate your vocabulary.  While the season hasn't been up to Texas standards, this is easily a top quintile FBS team that has the talent to beat anyone on the schedule.  There are 80+ FBS teams that would be jizzing themselves over the season we are having.

outside the top 30 just doesn't matter. 20-30 is shit, 1-10 is good, 11-19 is mid. we could quibble over these splits but you get the idea.

I don't really care what Rice, San Jose State, Washington State, or any other shit program is doing.

Edited by scramblyn

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