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Wow!!!! Shocking. 

The FBI suspected an employee of the Russian Orthodox Church of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence services in the United States The US Federal Bureau of Investigation suspected Dmitry Petrovsky, an employee of the Moscow Patriarchate's Department of External Church Relations, of working for Russian intelligence. The FBI believes that Petrovsky, under the cover of the Russian Orthodox Church, was engaged in recruiting agents for Russian intelligence services among priests and parishioners of the Russian Orthodox Church and other Orthodox churches in the United States. In May 2021, Petrovsky was searched upon entering the United States. Files related to Russian intelligence were found on his computer. Among the documents found were dossiers on well-known Orthodox priests in the US with details of biographies of their family members. The FBI believed that such information was necessary for Petrovsky to blackmail these people during the recruitment process. One of the files found was marked "confidential." The FBI cited it in full in its warning. Thus, according to the agency, this document contained a description of the areas of cooperation between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian special services - SVR, GRU and FSB.

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At this point I assume that there is some novel tech in ATACMS that we don't want Russia to get its hands on. I know ATACMS are being discontinued, but maybe the tech is being used in the replacement. Given that there aren't all that many ATACMS and no capacity to make more, and that other missiles can do the same jobs, my guess is US officials are weighing those things and saying its not worth it. If the tech is sensitive enough I would be OK with that, as long as we give Ukraine other toys in quantity and quality that will be decisive as soon as possible.

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He lives?

 

 Kadyrov has published a video of himself in the hospital. He claims that he has been at the bedside of his sick uncle. Kadyrov is never shown up close in the video. He commented on his well-being rather vaguely: "At the same time, I will comment on the rumors surrounding my health condition. Praise be to Allah Almighty, I am alive and well and I don't understand why even in case of my illness there should be a fuss? Although there is a good thing in it - now the audience knows which media and which individuals are blatantly lying to their readers."

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8 minutes ago, texastough said:

At this point I assume that there is some novel tech in ATACMS that we don't want Russia to get its hands on. I know ATACMS are being discontinued, but maybe the tech is being used in the replacement. Given that there aren't all that many ATACMS and no capacity to make more, and that other missiles can do the same jobs, my guess is US officials are weighing those things and saying its not worth it. If the tech is sensitive enough I would be OK with that, as long as we give Ukraine other toys in quantity and quality that will be decisive as soon as possible.

My bet is that we don't have many of the modernized missiles and their replacements aren't available in sufficient quantity to avoid degradation of our own forces. My assumption is that we were considering sending them some of the older stock, but may be reconsidering out of fear that they may simply not work. 

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13 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

He lives?

 

 Kadyrov has published a video of himself in the hospital. He claims that he has been at the bedside of his sick uncle. Kadyrov is never shown up close in the video. He commented on his well-being rather vaguely: "At the same time, I will comment on the rumors surrounding my health condition. Praise be to Allah Almighty, I am alive and well and I don't understand why even in case of my illness there should be a fuss? Although there is a good thing in it - now the audience knows which media and which individuals are blatantly lying to their readers."

Looks like a work

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

My bet is that we don't have many of the modernized missiles and their replacements aren't available in sufficient quantity to avoid degradation of our own forces. My assumption is that we were considering sending them some of the older stock, but may be reconsidering out of fear that they may simply not work. 

My understanding is that our total stockpile is about 1,000 of these, and I would imagine that most are deployed in Taiwan and Poland.  Pulling from either isn't a great solution.  Additionally, the replacement for these are still in development, and how far along is not disclosed.  So while these don't seem in play, perhaps something else is.  

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23 minutes ago, texastough said:

At this point I assume that there is some novel tech in ATACMS that we don't want Russia to get its hands on. I know ATACMS are being discontinued, but maybe the tech is being used in the replacement. Given that there aren't all that many ATACMS and no capacity to make more, and that other missiles can do the same jobs, my guess is US officials are weighing those things and saying its not worth it. If the tech is sensitive enough I would be OK with that, as long as we give Ukraine other toys in quantity and quality that will be decisive as soon as possible.

Russia can't get hands on their own tech. 

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1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

We haven't delivered any of the GLSDBs we promised. Maybe we're going to try to get those in theater first, then reassess the need for ATACMS?

Would nice to see the small diameter bombs in action.   As for the ATACMS, I wouldn't be banking on it, it's replacement, the Precision Strike Missile Or PrSM is still in development, and not much is out there about potential deployment.  The system itself integrates with the HIMARS system, and is at least advertised as impressive tech.  

It's pretty clear we didn't think the demand for something this mid range was really needed, and now we are scrambling to play catch up.  

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The only other thing I can find that would make the tiniest bit sense as an alternative is older tomahawk missiles. There are several problems with this idea though.  The first is that it's an entirely different system, including the hardware; which means a lot of training.  The second is that even the older blocks, like the block v, which is the oldest listed as still in use/stockpile, has a range of about 1500 miles, basically it's not intermediate range.  The third is, there are reports that even the newer blocks are in somewhat short supply, compared to what we'd like to have, which is probably why they are holding older blocks in reserve.  

Is it possible they could dial down the range of these, maybe, but it was certainly never intended for something like that.  Add that to the idea that if you can dial them down I'm sure someone could figure out how to dial the back up.  

Bottom line, we may need to provide other solutions, that can help them in other ways.  

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26 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The only other thing I can find that would make the tiniest bit sense as an alternative is older tomahawk missiles. There are several problems with this idea though.  The first is that it's an entirely different system, including the hardware; which means a lot of training.  The second is that even the older blocks, like the block v, which is the oldest listed as still in use/stockpile, has a range of about 1500 miles, basically it's not intermediate range.  The third is, there are reports that even the newer blocks are in somewhat short supply, compared to what we'd like to have, which is probably why they are holding older blocks in reserve.  

Is it possible they could dial down the range of these, maybe, but it was certainly never intended for something like that.  Add that to the idea that if you can dial them down I'm sure someone could figure out how to dial the back up.  

Bottom line, we may need to provide other solutions, that can help them in other ways.  

Well, the primary problem with a Tomahawk, and really anything else, is that Ukraine doesn't have a way to launch it. For Tomahawk, we have one program that just did a successful test of integrating the Tomahawk with a ground launch system. Otherwise, it is either air launched or sea launched. Every other mid to long range weapon system we have is going to be air launched and will require F-16s. We simply do not have the type of weapon system that Ukraine needs right now. 

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4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

The FBI suspected an employee of the Russian Orthodox Church of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence services in the United States The US Federal Bureau of Investigation suspected Dmitry Petrovsky, an employee of the Moscow Patriarchate's Department of External Church Relations, of working for Russian intelligence. The FBI believes that Petrovsky, under the cover of the Russian Orthodox Church, was engaged in recruiting agents for Russian intelligence services among priests and parishioners of the Russian Orthodox Church and other Orthodox churches in the United States. In May 2021, Petrovsky was searched upon entering the United States. Files related to Russian intelligence were found on his computer. Among the documents found were dossiers on well-known Orthodox priests in the US with details of biographies of their family members. The FBI believed that such information was necessary for Petrovsky to blackmail these people during the recruitment process. One of the files found was marked "confidential." The FBI cited it in full in its warning. Thus, according to the agency, this document contained a description of the areas of cooperation between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian special services - SVR, GRU and FSB.

New Russia of 2023 - same as the old Soviet Union of 1983.

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5 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, the primary problem with a Tomahawk, and really anything else, is that Ukraine doesn't have a way to launch it. For Tomahawk, we have one program that just did a successful test of integrating the Tomahawk with a ground launch system. Otherwise, it is either air launched or sea launched. Every other mid to long range weapon system we have is going to be air launched and will require F-16s. We simply do not have the type of weapon system that Ukraine needs right now. 

Dumb question time. Why does it matter if they are air/sea/land launched?  What makes it a show stopper technically I guess is what I’m trying to ask. Seems like a truck vs ship wouldn’t be that drastic of a difference. 

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On 9/19/2023 at 10:12 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

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The Ukrainians have been really impressive in their ingenuity and they are only going to get better.

If the Russians are freaked out about drones made of plastic pipes and plywood, just wait until they get hit by Ukrainian popsicle stick Himars. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, George said:

Dumb question time. Why does it matter if they are air/sea/land launched?  What makes it a show stopper technically I guess is what I’m trying to ask. Seems like a truck vs ship wouldn’t be that drastic of a difference. 

It's a hardware issue, these were designed to be used either with our air platforms or the Navy's.  The platform exists to ground launch, but it's extremely limited and really only basic testing has been done; something we figured we'd never need nor use.  So trying to give them that (which we won't for lots of reasons), would be us giving them something in extremely short supply, which also assumes the equipment itself wasn't mothballed beyond repair or still exists even at all.  

So it's not that you'd get any bigger bang for your buck from one platform to another.  Ultimately, we figured we'd never need something like this because it's not how we would fight, which is why intermediate stuff sort of went by the wayside.  Now we are presented with a conflict where that kind of platform would help immensely, and we don't have the stocks for it.  From a budget standpoint all that makes sense, real world obviously not so much considering the circumstances.  I really can't fault military budget planners though, when you have to make cuts, doing it with things you don't see a real plan of use for makes sense.  

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Quote
The FBI suspected an employee of the Russian Orthodox Church of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence services in the United States The US Federal Bureau of Investigation suspected Dmitry Petrovsky, an employee of the Moscow Patriarchate's Department of External Church Relations, of working for Russian intelligence. The FBI believes that Petrovsky, under the cover of the Russian Orthodox Church, was engaged in recruiting agents for Russian intelligence services among priests and parishioners of the Russian Orthodox Church and other Orthodox churches in the United States. In May 2021, Petrovsky was searched upon entering the United States. Files related to Russian intelligence were found on his computer. Among the documents found were dossiers on well-known Orthodox priests in the US with details of biographies of their family members. The FBI believed that such information was necessary for Petrovsky to blackmail these people during the recruitment process. One of the files found was marked "confidential." The FBI cited it in full in its warning. Thus, according to the agency, this document contained a description of the areas of cooperation between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian special services - SVR, GRU and FSB.

 

 

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Catching up here.  It's a valid concern that the hole left by donated ATACMS would be a tactical risk, and you gotta take thst into account.  OTOH, it's a ballah move to acknowledge the risk, and do it anyway.  Because fuck you, we're America.  It's the strategic equivalent to yawning, checking your watch and walking away from a punk trying to fight you.  And we should do it.  Those missiles were designed to kill Russians.  Let's send them to their home.

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2 hours ago, George said:

Dumb question time. Why does it matter if they are air/sea/land launched?  What makes it a show stopper technically I guess is what I’m trying to ask. Seems like a truck vs ship wouldn’t be that drastic of a difference. 

There are a lot of things that go into launching a tomahawk or a small diameter bomb, most of them in the background to either control them or to ensure your own defense doesn’t pick them off or thinking maybe they are something they aren’t.   It’s all that background shit that keeps us from just handing things over willy nilly.  

Edited by Judge Roybeanbag
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Some chatter that Russia is withdrawing the fleet from Svestopol.  Considering securing the base during the initial taking of Crimea, this would be huge if true.  

I don't know the bona fides of the link below

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3763605-russia-withdrawing-warships-from-sevastopol-bay-partisans.html

 

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10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Some chatter that Russia is withdrawing the fleet from Svestopol.  Considering securing the base during the initial taking of Crimea, this would be huge if true.  

I don't know the bona fides of the link below

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3763605-russia-withdrawing-warships-from-sevastopol-bay-partisans.html

 

I have read that is the only port in the Black Sea where they can dry dock military vessels is that not the case?

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13 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Some chatter that Russia is withdrawing the fleet from Svestopol.  Considering securing the base during the initial taking of Crimea, this would be huge if true.  

Could be tied into Ukraine continuing to methodically degrade Russian air defenses in Crimea.  

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14 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I have read that is the only port in the Black Sea where they can dry dock military vessels is that not the case?

seems like it would have been cheaper to upgrade novorossiysk

 

 

band nerds know:

 

 

Edited by elfenix
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25 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I have read that is the only port in the Black Sea where they can dry dock military vessels is that not the case?

This is my understanding as well, but considering the dry dock currently has two slips, and one is occupied with a blown up sub, and the other with a blown up ship, I'm guessing that part doesn't really matter.  You would think they would have a dry dock in Sochi or Novorssiysk, but that apparently isn't the case.  I would have to imagine they could at least commandeer a commercial dry dock in another location.   I'm guessing their Seabee program blows ass though.  

It's a almost a bigger psychological hit if they are abandoning, because that's the ceremonial home base of the Russian Imperial Navy (dating way back).  

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5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Could you fucking imagine if we invaded Mexico, picked up an initial 100 miles of territory in the first few weeks, for 18 months since have been steadily loosing in the ground war, and in the process lost our flagship and had to abandon our naval base in San Diego?  Mind you to a country with no real Navy to speak of, beyond really a search and rescue coast guard and civil patrol.  That's pretty much what has happened to Russia, so yeah, it's not going well (not that I shed a tear for them).  

 

When you put it that way, yeah, so much winning.  

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18 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Here’s a short story on why you can’t just hand a munition over without having or handing over the infrastructure to support it.   
 

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/communications/article/16723466/harris-weapon-data-link-for-small-diameter-bomb-increment-ii-receives-nsa-certification

 

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I've seen a few stories about this as it has developed over the last few days. Something needs to be figured out quickly.

Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495 

Spoiler

Consequently, the European Union temporarily banned imports of grain into five countries; Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia to protect local farmers, who feared Ukrainian grain was driving down the prices locally.

The ban ended on 15 September and the EU chose not to renew it, but Hungary, Slovakia and Poland decided to keep on implementing it.

The European Commission has repeatedly stated that it is not up to individual EU members to make trade policy for the bloc.

Earlier this week, Ukraine filed lawsuits to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against those countries over the bans, which it said were a violation of international obligations.

Ukraine's Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said that "it is crucially important for us to prove that individual member states cannot ban imports of Ukrainian goods".

But Poland said they would keep the ban in place, and a "complaint before the WTO doesn't impress us".

Despite the ban, the three countries said they would still allow grain to be transported through them to other markets.

The French Foreign Minister, Catherina Colonna said on Wednesday an EU study revealed Ukrainian grain imports would not cripple European farmers, and described the tensions as "regrettable".

Poland has provided much support to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia, urging Germany to provide the country with Leopard 2 battle tanks, pledging fighter jets to the country and welcoming more than 1.5m refugees from Ukraine.

Edit:

 

Edited by KYHorn
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