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Posted
5 minutes ago, Party_Taco said:

 


I recall reading somewhere that they also used local Russian telecom networks were available to pilot the drones from afar… either way, absolutely brilliant.

 

There’s going to be a lot of selective releases of information, strategic ambiguity, and tactical disinformation in the weeks after this from Ukraine’s side. Expect it, appreciate it, and in like seven months this will migrate from classified information to a NYT or WSJ long piece. 

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Posted

I don’t see how operation spider’s web doesn’t significantly disable Russia’s military permanently . Perhaps losing up to a 1/3 of their strategic bombers that can’t be replaced. The Tu-95 has been out of production since ‘93 not to mention its doubtful Russia has the funds to rebuild lost aircraft.

Ukraine struck an airbase that’s described as being in eastern Siberia. They could have attacked the Kremlin if they had wanted. Russia will need to be on constant alert now across the country.

i hope this attack scared the pentagon in recognizing our need to be prepared for a similar attack. I’m unsure how you fully can’t protect an air base, or whatever target, when drones are now flying many miles with fiber optic control wires.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how operation spider’s web doesn’t significantly disable Russia’s military permanently . Perhaps losing up to a 1/3 of their strategic bombers that can’t be replaced. The Tu-95 has been out of production since ‘93 not to mention its doubtful Russia has the funds to rebuild lost aircraft.

I hope JD Vance says "Thank you" once.

 

Quote

i hope this attack scared the pentagon in recognizing our need to be prepared for a similar attack. I’m unsure how you fully can’t protect an air base, or whatever target, when drones are now flying many miles with fiber optic control wires.

MP's and local police pay attention to vehicles left parked close to the base for several days and the usual online lookouts for aholes talking of chicanery.  Not a "fix" but that's how you start.

Edited by Parliament
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Posted

The OSint YouTube community is allsome. New satellite imagery dropped to get better plane casualties from the attack. Crazy that's just a consumer service now

 

It seems the attack was only 60% effective, with a few targeted airbases getting significantly less than maximum firepower effect. Another interesting wrinkle is that when compared to pre-attack footage, a number of their aircraft haven't moved in over a year and are missing components like engines or props

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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

The OSint YouTube community is allsome. New satellite imagery dropped to get better plane casualties from the attack. Crazy that's just a consumer service now

 

It seems the attack was only 60% effective, with a few targeted airbases getting significantly less than maximum firepower effect. Another interesting wrinkle is that when compared to pre-attack footage, a number of their aircraft haven't moved in over a year and are missing components like engines or props

I didn't watch full video but can you explain the scale in which 60% is calculated from? Would 100% been the full destruction of all planes at each of the bases, and did Ukraine bring that much firepower to those drones to make that possible?

Posted
2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

IIRC, this is the second RU AWACS they've hit, and I think they only have two or three total airframes. 

Quote

Russia is estimated to have around six A-50 aircraft remaining. These are highly valuable AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft used for reconnaissance and control of air operations. Two A-50s were lost in early 2024, likely shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems. 

So they have 6 airframes, and this would be the third they've destroyed. Highly doubtful all 6 were airworthy, and they cost around $350M to build. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Doesnt matter. The psyops effect is around %1000. 

The amount of effort required to check every underwater support of the Kerch Bridge alone, and then to station security up and down the whole thing is huge.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The Ukrainians reportedly hit some of the underwater supports. The bridge isn't down, but likely is structurally compromised.

One Ping Only GIF - One Ping Only - Discover & Share GIFs

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Posted
4 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

IIRC, this is the second RU AWACS they've hit, and I think they only have two or three total airframes. 

According to wiki (if you want to believe that) they made about 42, of which 21 are operational.  Accounting for these losses and So I think a fair bet is something less than 21.  Still, not a huge number, but not single digits.  But the fewer left around, the better.

2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So they have 6 airframes, and this would be the third they've destroyed. Highly doubtful all 6 were airworthy, and they cost around $350M to build. 

Where did you get the "6" number?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

According to wiki (if you want to believe that) they made about 42, of which 21 are operational.  Accounting for these losses and So I think a fair bet is something less than 21.  Still, not a huge number, but not single digits.  But the fewer left around, the better.

Where did you get the "6" number?

google, so maybe not accurate

Posted

Looks like this is the source article Google AI used...

13 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

According to wiki (if you want to believe that) they made about 42, of which 21 are operational.  Accounting for these losses and So I think a fair bet is something less than 21.  Still, not a huge number, but not single digits.  But the fewer left around, the better.

Where did you get the "6" number?

 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Cluck, cluck.  Criminals who earned their freedom by going to Ukraine, then didn’t to the honorable thing and die, are now on their own.  Jobless.  Without a support network.

No way that doesn’t go bad at all.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/03/nearly-half-of-russian-war-veterans-cant-find-work-after-returning-from-ukraine-officials-say-a89321
 

IMG_7372.png

Chickens coming home to roost?

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

According to wiki (if you want to believe that) they made about 42, of which 21 are operational.  Accounting for these losses and So I think a fair bet is something less than 21.  Still, not a huge number, but not single digits.  But the fewer left around, the better.

Where did you get the "6" number?

That wiki estimate is for airframes built up until the collapse of the USSR.  And it’s really hard to verify the numbers for those. 
 

The 1992-2007 years would have seen many of these put in storage and raided for parts, and then after 2008 when investment started to pick up, a lot of them went to get an upgrade to the A-50U type which Russia struggled to finish.  
 

Unlikely to know for sure without classified sources but I’d say that low double digit to high single digit usable aircraft is reasonable at the outbreak of the full scale invasion. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

A lot of unemployed war veterans with grievances usually works out well

Sadly, as US citizens, we should be careful about chastising other governments treatment of vets. 

I'm NOT defending Russia here, to be clear and I do agree with your point.

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
20 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So they have 6 airframes, and this would be the third they've destroyed. Highly doubtful all 6 were airworthy, and they cost around $350M to build. 

 

15 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Screenshot_20250603_135103_Reddit.thumb.jpg.4a8833bfb5b54c2dd5b1fb3dba1b84ad.jpg

Sounds expensive.

I heard a report from the Telegraph estimate they have 5-6 left. They also noted that it's believed Moscow has constant AWACS coverage, which would require 2 planes at all times, plus one on the ground for refueling. This means they are extremely limited for the actual frontline 

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Posted
16 hours ago, Parliament said:

Cluck, cluck.  Criminals who earned their freedom by going to Ukraine, then didn’t to the honorable thing and die, are now on their own.  Jobless.  Without a support network.

No way that doesn’t go bad at all.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/03/nearly-half-of-russian-war-veterans-cant-find-work-after-returning-from-ukraine-officials-say-a89321
 

IMG_7372.png

I saw a headline that they’ve already had 1,000,000 soldiers killed? Seems like they might need to call them back to action? Especially now since they got no planes left lol.

3 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Sadly, as US citizens, we should be careful about chastising the way other governments treatment of vets. 

I'm NOT defending Russia here, to be clear and I do agree with your point.

Also this.

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Posted
16 hours ago, Parliament said:

Cluck, cluck.  Criminals who earned their freedom by going to Ukraine, then didn’t to the honorable thing and die, are now on their own.  Jobless.  Without a support network.

No way that doesn’t go bad at all.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/03/nearly-half-of-russian-war-veterans-cant-find-work-after-returning-from-ukraine-officials-say-a89321
 

IMG_7372.png

 

from a wsj article a week or so ago https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-putin-ukraine-war-economy-7e410058

image.thumb.png.b3cf94a82848dc0d626b64ef885501ad.png

 

image.thumb.png.a0ad9a4a89a6884e6cf924597eb4aa70.png

 

 

image.thumb.png.c99e3aebd992e6e3df62e8de429e2cf6.png

 

image.thumb.png.af6aa6746b1ce5cea3ca8737023be210.png

no paywall link https://archive.is/R4wZZ#selection-2313.0-2313.7

 

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Posted

Some of those Tu-22Ms looked like they had moss growing on them.  I wonder who has to be the poor jackwaggon that has to put the (obviously worthless) tires on top of those things then hurl them off and pile them up for every mission.  

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Posted
Quote

Tass have published Russia's memorandum, which it refused to hand over to Ukraine until the peace talks in Istanbul today. 

The demands basically amount to surrender, regime change, and putting Ukraine back in Russia's grip. They are:

1) Ukraine withdraws from four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) and lets Russia have them. "International recognition" follows.
2) Ukraine pledges never to join any military alliances or coalitions (NATO etc). No foreign boots on the ground or military infrastructure either.
3) Any current or future efforts to this end are rolled back or banned.
4) No nuclear weapons for Ukraine.
5) Caps on Ukraine's military. Far-right units are disbanded.
6) "Full guarantee of rights for Russian speakers." Russian becomes an official language.
7). Ban on "glorification and promoting of Nazism and neo-Nazism." Nationalist parties and groups are disbanded.
😎 All western sanctions are lifted. No sanctions can be introduced in future either.
9) "Resolution of issues" with family reunification and displaced persons.
10) Both sides agree not to demand reparations.
11) Ukraine rolls back its restrictions on the Russian Orthodox Church.
12) Full restoration of diplomatic and economic relations, "including gas transit," as well as transport and "other ties, including with third countries."

There are two paths to a ceasefire:

Either: Ukraine withdraws from the four partially occupied regions within 30 days.
Or: the "package option" – Ukraine does a bunch of other things first, including holding elections, and then withdraws from those regions later. All within 30 days.

Looks like we are really close to a deal then, huh?

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Posted
13 minutes ago, RPM said:

Why all the tires? What kind of 1960 trailer house technology is this?

To try to confuse the targeting system of drones. Apparently it can be effective depending on the tech of the drones. But not as effective as putting the planes in a hangar and closing the door.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Zelensky should respond to Putin's memorandum like this:

 

Russia will:

1. Remove Russian troops from all Pre-2014 areas of Ukraine

2. Cede the region of Kursk to Ukraine.

3. Pay Ukraine 50% of all proceeds of Russian energy that travels via Ukraine.

4. Return all Ukrainian Children

5. Provide Ukraine $500B US Dollars to rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure.

6. All future trade in and out of Russia will be internally monitored by the UN.

 

Ukraine will:

1, Allow you to keep what is left of your air force

2. Allow you to keep what is remaining of your Navy

3. Stop slaughtering what is left of your working and military aged men.

4. Stop globally exposing your military for being comprised of a bunch of clowns.

 

 

 

I'd throw in some toilets.  Gotta offer something the rooskies really want and need, as a clincher.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Vlady is really fucking his country over for the long haul. He will be remembered as one of, if not, THE worst leader they've ever had.

Oh, friendo.....the competition for that spot is SUPER stout.  Hard to argue against Stalin, who managed to so badly mis-play the relationship with Germany and WWII as to get 27 million Soviet citizens killed.  And that's just in the past 100 years.  Dig back further, and the competition remains super stout.  Ivan the Terrible screwed the pooch in the Livonian war damn near 500 years ago.  The Russian experience of "worst leader ever" is kinda infinite.

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