Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Orange&White 5516]

IF, and obviously that is a HUGE IF, some sort of coup were to happen in Russia and some other mafia boss were to come in and be running the show, and that person was trying to play nice, even if temporarily, just to get the sanctions eased, one of the the biggest negotiating chips that person/group would have at that moment would be to offer up Putin to the Hague. The world would have to think long and hard about how to respond to that.

[Bevo 13468]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think the deal is more that neither Putin nor any of his fellow criminals could ever leave Russia again (other than forays into "friendly" countries like the DPRK and China).  They will never have an Italian villa ever again, because the minute they step off a plane in Rome, they are arrested.  They get to spend the rest of their lives being the kings of Shitsville that is impoverished, sanctioned, shithole Russia.  It's like having the most luxurious home in College Station.  Hooray.

Do you really think that is true? Capitalists have short memories. Putin could easily be knocked off by PO'd Ukranians or Ukrainian spies, but I think the oligarchs in general would be safe. And offering free or discounted shit for amnesty seems like it would be pretty easy for oligarchs.

[atomheartbevo 89304]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It's like having the most luxurious home in College Station. 

They have 3,500+ square foot triple-wide mobile homes these days.  Of course, they aren't very mobile once you plop them down and began connecting them, regardless of what Cousin Eddie says when he offers you $5,000 for it 10 years from now, but they do look fancy inside.

4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

IF, and obviously that is a HUGE IF, some sort of coup were to happen in Russia and some other mafia boss were to come in and be running the show, and that person was trying to play nice, even if temporarily, just to get the sanctions eased, one of the the biggest negotiating chips that person/group would have at that moment would be to offer up Putin to the Hague. The world would have to think long and hard about how to respond to that.

The problem is that a big enough chunk of Russia still loves Putin, so whoever comes in at that point and has a live Putin on their hands, better think long and hard about how to handle him.  The Russian thing to do would be to put a bullet in his head and blame it on somebody else, rather than send him outside of Russia and risk him getting back in the country and stirring shit up.

[atomheartbevo 89304]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Do you really think that is true? Capitalists have short memories. Putin could easily be knocked off by PO'd Ukranians or Ukrainian spies, but I think the oligarchs in general would be safe. And offering free or discounted shit for amnesty seems like it would be pretty easy for oligarchs.

They might be safe outside of Russia, but inside of Russia, they are at the mercy of whoever is in power - they can't just go moving millions/billions out of Russian banks (and a chunk of their overseas accounts have been confiscated although most probably have some kind of Swiss or Panamanian accounts setup), and they can't move whatever mansions, etc. they have in Russia.

That's why I think they are still with Putin.

[Brisketexan 104226]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

They have 3,500+ square foot triple-wide mobile homes these days.  Of course, they aren't very mobile once you plop them down and began connecting them, regardless of what Cousin Eddie says when he offers you $5,000 for it 10 years from now, but they do look fancy inside.

The problem is that a big enough chunk of Russia still loves Putin, so whoever comes in at that point and has a live Putin on their hands, better think long and hard about how to handle him.  The Russian thing to do would be to put a bullet in his head and blame it on somebody else, rather than send him outside of Russia and risk him getting back in the country and stirring shit up.

This. Putin never sees the Hague.  He either dies an old man, as dictator of a materially impoverished, worse off Russia, or he takes a bullet to the head.  And I'm betting on the first one.  He has consolidated power and eliminated rivals.  And what does he care if the Russian people have been set back 40-50 years?  What does he care if Solovyov can no longer get pegged at his Italian villa?  He's in power.  He's rich.  He's in control of everything, even more than he was before.  Putin has already won this war, in terms of most of his personal goals.  And as for the war itself, all he has to do is define victory as something already achieved, declare it, and have a triumphant military parade through Red Square to celebrate.

[The Dog 43715]

We're back to the Soviet days of Russian "public opinion". Take everything they say to any media outlet with a large grain of salt.

[Bateshorn 9853]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Naaah.  At the very least, backchannel to let China know what's coming -- either now, or after we finish dealing with Russia.  Either way, play genocidal games, get shitty prizes.

With China, you strangle them economically. Use sanctions and trade embargoes to force EU and US manufacturing to look elsewhere for low cost producers.

[Gatorubet 30023]

41 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I think the whole crimes against humanity ensures there isn’t some “depose Putin and say we’re really sorry” off-ramp here. There probably never was, but it feels like at this point it really is an existential fight for survival

I used to think Putin was all-in. Feels like everybody on that side with any power is all-in.

Agree. WWII in both theaters would’ve ended far more quickly absent that unconditional surrender thing. This strikes me as complicating an off-ramp.  It also raises the specter of war crimes trials for military and political officials in Russia, as well as for those assholes in Russian media.

That said, it may not be as important as it first looks. Unlike Germany in World War II, we are never going into Russia and drag out those people for trial.  Whether we did or did not call them out for crimes against humanity, at the end of this thing sanctions will still be in place, their economy ruined, their petroleum sales gutted, their academic institutions neutered, their travel restrictions still limited, and they will still be seen by much of the world as lepers to avoid and never trade with again.

Really, the crimes against humanity gig seems more like an exclamation point that those assholes will never visit their Italian villas again, unless they want to risk extradition.  Nothing about labeling them war criminals will change that we aren’t going in to arrest them. 

IOW, it strikes me that it is merely a bargaining chip that can be taken back at the end of the war  - thereby allowing at least some of the least horrible oligarchs and elites to travel outside of Russia, like they all desire.  Certainly I think it was also said to give them pause as they consider their future moves. Since Russia’s ruling elite does not care about the lives of ordinary Russians, I see it as chip directed at the ruling elites that gets us something in return for threat we were not pursuing  anyway (arresting them in Russia).  I think it is a good move for the obvious and true moral human rights reasons - and for realpolitik as well. 

Or I should’ve had fewer bloody Mary’s this morning. 

Edit: I started this longcat and my son came by. I then finished it and posted not having read the above posts.  Conclusion? Another Bloody Mary. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Gatorubet

[KYHorn 16751]

 

[MissingInAction 24746]

25 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

IF, and obviously that is a HUGE IF, some sort of coup were to happen in Russia and some other mafia boss were to come in and be running the show, and that person was trying to play nice, even if temporarily, just to get the sanctions eased, one of the the biggest negotiating chips that person/group would have at that moment would be to offer up Putin to the Hague. The world would have to think long and hard about how to respond to that.

Our President just rode a train from Warsaw to Kyiv.

We are far from alright.

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16592]

44 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

 

 

My wife and I watched the Discovery Plus homemade rocket people with this idiot in it.  I swear I've never heard someone laugh as loud or hard as she did when they showed the final "flight".  If you have no qualms about watching stupid people kill themselves, and can enjoy that as comedy, I highly recommend it.  

[Brisketexan 104226]

23 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

With China, you strangle them economically. Use sanctions and trade embargoes to force EU and US manufacturing to look elsewhere for low cost producers.

Also, we need to up our weapons sales/shipments to Taiwan.  HIMARS like a motherfucker.  Anti-ship missiles like candy.  China needs to realize, in bright highlighter terms, that its actions have consequences. 

Want to be a fair and equal, prosperous trading partner?  That path has been there for you for some time.  Want to be a cheating, authoritarian shithole that we can't trust for even the medium term?  We have a path for that, too.  One of those is much better for your cash flow than the other.

[Superhero 8699]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Better late than never. Good boy Hungary.

 

Re all the posts about China, I will summarize my response to those posts in one blanket statement.  FUCK YOU CHINA. 

[JesusSweatDuck 17780]

6 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Better late than never. Good boy Hungary.

 

Re all the posts about China, I will summarize my response to those posts in one blanket statement.  FUCK YOU CHINA. 

Avatar checks out

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

23 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

 

I like that they’re all in the same spot. 
 

“You don’t think they’d put a mine here do you?”

“You don’t think they’d put another mine here do you?”

“They’re no such thing as a three mined spot is there?”

”No one does four mines do they?”

”Five mines would definitely be too many right?”

[Longhorn94 2425]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

1) there are a shit load of tanks all around the world sitting in warehouses in various stages that’ll need upgrading to battle readiness

2) all things said the Abrams tank is a bad ass and probably the best choice for Ukraine

3) it takes longer than we would wish to upgrade many of those stored tanks

4) (this is my personal take) after all the blah blah blah there are enough tanks, ready right now, to be sent to Ukraine to help in any Russian spring offensive.  We dick around for political reasons, and because we don’t want to give up many of our current best battle-ready tanks due to the requisite delay in upgrading the ones in storage

5) (also my take) the US has enough combat ready Abrams tanks, even if not the most modern, that if uncle Joe wanted to send a bunch right now on drawdown he sure as shit could.

TY

[Ghost of LL 15327]

48 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

With China, you strangle them economically. Use sanctions and trade embargoes to force EU and US manufacturing to look elsewhere for low cost producers.

China did a great job of starting that process with its Zero Covid policy.  Manufacturing has been looking elsewhere for a long time, and this is only going to accelerate that.

Honestly what we really need to do is name Russia as a state-sponsor of terrorism and impose secondary sanctions.  That would remove a lot of the uncertainty about what we would do with respect to China and would go a long way toward convincing them to reduce their ties to Russia.

[Bevo 13468]

 

[ABSR 5286]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They might be safe outside of Russia, but inside of Russia, they are at the mercy of whoever is in power - they can't just go moving millions/billions out of Russian banks (and a chunk of their overseas accounts have been confiscated although most probably have some kind of Swiss or Panamanian accounts setup), and they can't move whatever mansions, etc. they have in Russia.

That's why I think they are still with Putin.

But that's the hook.  Do you want your French Riviera Villas back?  Do you want your yachts back?  Do you want to get rid of McDonaldsky and get real McDonald's back?

Russians are use to eating shit and being told what to do until an incredible breaking point.  And likely whoever replaces Putin will be just as big of a shithead as he is.....but if the new Shit head likes Villas, yachts and Big Mac's, then they will try to set up the early Putin years control where they had Westernization and Oligarchs/Mafia.  "Let's show the West how great Russia is by beating them at their own game!"

The people will be told and believe anything, and they will go along with it so long as life gets better and Starbucks comes back.

[MissingInAction 24746]

Another observation I'd like to share 

Re: drunken raccoon tankers

I am waaayyy to lazy to illustrate my point; however the evidence awaits you in every vid of Russian armor movements.

I saw one where they just lined up every tank they had between their dumb asses and incoming fire from an IFV.

The stupid shits huddled like white tailed deer until a drone fragged them to bolivia.

[Armybrat 40648]

Just saw an interesting interview with this historian on BBC…

https://www.olesyakhromeychuk.com

 

[The Dog 43715]

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 Lol ...

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by KYHorn

[The Dog 43715]

 

[The Dog 43715]

 

[The Dog 43715]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

You laugh but when UKr soldiers start getting tetanus 

[Chad Fuck 17455]

My wife and I watched the Discovery Plus homemade rocket people with this idiot in it.  I swear I've never heard someone laugh as loud or hard as she did when they showed the final "flight".  If you have no qualms about watching stupid people kill themselves, and can enjoy that as comedy, I highly recommend it.  

Man I thought that’s all this thread was?

[dimyh 1874]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

For a second there I thought those were snapshots of Jade's enchiladas.

[Steel Shank 9383]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Just saw an interesting interview with this historian on BBC…

https://www.olesyakhromeychuk.com

 

Did you find her comments titillating?

[Brisketexan 104226]

For a second there I thought those were snapshots of Jade's enchiladas.

It was “chili,” dude.

[Trey3216 15321]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Great article. If we can’t change their hearts and minds, then HIMARS can detach their hearts and brains from their bodies and we can ensure they send the parts home in a box until they quit coming to Ukraine. 

 

Maybe we should re-record Country Joe & the Fish, in multiple languages/dialects for them to better understand their plight.  

[Gatorubet 30023]

China did a great job of starting that process with its Zero Covid policy.  Manufacturing has been looking elsewhere for a long time, and this is only going to accelerate that.
Honestly what we really need to do is name Russia as a state-sponsor of terrorism and impose secondary sanctions.  That would remove a lot of the uncertainty about what we would do with respect to China and would go a long way toward convincing them to reduce their ties to Russia.

Great point. The Confederates said, “Cotton is King - and Britain and France won’t wait to recognize our nation because they have to have our cotton!”
And that boys and girls created the Indian and Egyptian cotton markets, as buyers turned elsewhere.   Capitalism has very little loyalty to anything but itself.
Five years after the war, American cotton was producing just as much as it did before the war.  But now they had competitors, which usually results in lower prices.   China is going to fuck around and find out that there are a lot of countries with people willing to work for not much to make the same stuff they made.   Go on - make us sanction you!
 
 

[Armybrat 40648]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It was “chili,” dude.

Why not both?

[dimyh 1874]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It was “chili,” dude.

Oh, I've only seen pics of that chili but I'm assuming her enchiladas would be any different. Both would inflict intense intestinal distress. Jade's cooking = Putin's war planning.

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 

 

[SquishMitten 10381]

On 2/21/2023 at 12:01 PM, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, I mean.....he's already done that.  As just one example, Russia is a mafia-run gas station, and it has lost its most important customer (western Europe).  For good.  Because if he's still in power after the war ends, nobody sane would enter into a trade relationship with him for anything essential, as he has demonstrated an absolute willingness to use it for blackmail purposes.  And, sanctions against the import of materials used for the manufacture of sophisticated weapons platforms won't be going away anytime soon.  And NATO will soon have two new, potent members, and one member (Poland) who will absolutely be the first one to unleash the thunder against Russia if the call ever comes (and Poland is busy stocking up and up-arming to do so).  The best and the brightest - who would be helpful in rebuilding a post-war economy - fled, and won't return.  The demographic crisis is only getting worse, both because of that and because of the body count of killed/wounded Russians.

Russia, as a country, has lost a great deal with this war.  Putin, on the other hand, has lost nothing, because he only cares about two things: holding onto his power and his wealth.  And both of those remain firmly in hand.  Putin can tolerate a LOT of pain suffered by other people, it's no skin off his nose.  You and I, if leaders of a nation, would give a fuck about the suffering of our people.  But when you take that concern off the table, well, it's quite liberating in terms of how you can govern.

Putin is succeeding, because he retains a firm grip on power, the only metric that matters.   Russia, on the other hand, is fucked.

Bolded is the only part I'm not totally convinced of. Sure, many won't return because they find a better life elsewhere, but I don't think they will all be scared to return. If we assume Putin actually saw their flight as a positive (on the belief that those would be the most likely to rise up), then there's no reason he wouldn't happily welcome them back in peacetime. They will definitely be needed. 

[SL Xpress 7503]

56 minutes ago, dimyh said:

For a second there I thought those were snapshots of Jade's enchiladas.

Before they went through the digestive system, or after?

[SL Xpress 7503]

40 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

Lech Walesa and the Solidarity trade union were the original Maidan revolution. So appropriate that the badass Polish are showing they have low hanging balls of steel, too. Thanks for the link, KYHorn. 

[Brisketexan 104226]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Before they went through the digestive system, or after?

Either way, we're just stacking up the "crimes against humanity" around here.

[Schulz2.0 28710]

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19320]

12 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Bolded is the only part I'm not totally convinced of. Sure, many won't return because they find a better life elsewhere, but I don't think they will all be scared to return. If we assume Putin actually saw their flight as a positive (on the belief that those would be the most likely to rise up), then there's no reason he wouldn't happily welcome them back in peacetime. They will definitely be needed. 

also, just because they are pussies and left doesn't mean they don't support Russia or the war. Putin could see them as valuable troublemakers all over Europe

[Bevo 13468]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

 

 

[SquishMitten 10381]

18 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Ouch. Hilarious joke, but not very diplomatic

 

To some extent, there's probably truth to that. The Germans are teaching how to control the equipment, and the Ukrainians are able to relay the tactics and whatnot used by Russians, which leads to even better training for everyone involved. 

[Chad Fuck 17455]

57 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

/obligatory.  Chad Jr. Has one of these for our nerf wars:

*not Chad or Chad Jr. in pics

 

[dimyh 1874]

In case anyone bitches about the amount aid going to Ukraine. Excellent breakdown in comparison to other wars. WW2 comparisons are not very apt but comparisons with Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, and Korea are very telling.

 

 

[BamaATL 16592]

20 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Bolded is the only part I'm not totally convinced of. Sure, many won't return because they find a better life elsewhere, but I don't think they will all be scared to return. If we assume Putin actually saw their flight as a positive (on the belief that those would be the most likely to rise up), then there's no reason he wouldn't happily welcome them back in peacetime. They will definitely be needed. 

Historically speaking, when a group of people flee, they never return, even if it is their original intention.  Invariably, what happens is that they find new lives and more or less move on.  In this particular conflict, the Ukrainians might be different, because when they win there will be great pride, hope, and reconstruction within the borders of Ukraine.  However, if history tells us anything, many won't return, especially the longer this goes on.  For Russia, those that left, unless they find themselves in an even worse situation, say Tajikistan, they aren't ever returning.  

[The Dog 43715]

Just now, BamaATL said:

Historically speaking, when a group of people flee, they never return, even if it is their original intention.  Invariably, what happens is that they find new lives and more or less move on.  In this particular conflict, the Ukrainians might be different, because when they win there will be great pride, hope, and reconstruction within the borders of Ukraine.  However, if history tells us anything, many won't return, especially the longer this goes on.  For Russia, those that left, unless they find themselves in an even worse situation, say Tajikistan, they aren't ever returning.  

a lot of Ukrainians have already returned back home to fight and rebuild. they'll come home for the most part when they can.