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35 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Putin getting desperate:

 

Seems really risky for both Putin and Lukashenko, because asking the Belarus people to join a war they don't want maybe what sets them off.  Belarusians so inclined were already free to join Russia's version of the international legion or whatever.

Plus, Belarus has 60,000 soldiers on active duty.  If Putin pulls a few tens of thousands of those into Ukraine, how is Lukashenko going to keep the peace in Belarus, since it'll be a prime opportunity for the opposition?  And if Belarus blows up a bit, Putin might have to send Russian troops into Belarus to put down any uprisings, and what are the optics of that going to be for the people of Belarus, and what "trained" riot control troops will Russia have to deploy?  Gunning down Belarus citizens who aren't happy seems like a great way to push things over the edge.

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Seems really risky for both Putin and Lukashenko, because asking the Belarus people to join a war they don't want maybe what sets them off.  Belarusians so inclined were already free to join Russia's version of the international legion or whatever.

Plus, Belarus has 60,000 soldiers on active duty.  If Putin pulls a few tens of thousands of those into Ukraine, how is Lukashenko going to keep the peace in Belarus, since it'll be a prime opportunity for the opposition?  And if Belarus blows up a bit, Putin might have to send Russian troops into Belarus to put down any uprisings, and what are the optics of that going to be for the people of Belarus, and what "trained" riot control troops will Russia have to deploy?  Gunning down Belarus citizens who aren't happy seems like a great way to push things over the edge.

I've long felt that Lukashenko is the guy most likely see the same fate as Mussolini (I'm sure he fears the shit out of it).  Or maybe he will get Gadddafi'd (stabbed in the ass and bleeding out in a sewer).  Either is good with me.  For that reason alone, I tend to think we will resist to the bitter end activating any of his soldiers towards putins goals.  

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13 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I guess it really depends on the Belarusian people. Are they really pro Russian? Do they secretly hate Lukashenko? Or are they passive pussies who just obey whatever like Russians do?

They hate him, in the last election, if it would have been fair done, he would have lost by 80 points.  Of course, the poll results have that flipped around in his favor, but since when does that matter.  They've been progressively more under the thumb of Moscow since putin.  Interestingly, Lukashenko was initially elected as a farmer post Soviet break up and there was general optimism for him in the earlier 90s.  Since, putin, he's increasingly become more authoritarian and now is supposedly grooming his son for leadership after him.  He's betrayed his people, they all know it, loathe him, and those that protect him are ruthless mercs.  

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5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

They hate him, in the last election, if it would have been fair done, he would have lost by 80 points.  Of course, the poll results have that flipped around in his favor, but since when does that matter.  They've been progressively more under the thumb of Moscow since putin.  Interestingly, Lukashenko was initially elected as a farmer post Soviet break up and there was general optimism for him in the earlier 90s.  Since, putin, he's increasingly become more authoritarian and now is supposedly grooming his son for leadership after him.  He's betrayed his people, they all know it, loathe him, and those that protect him are ruthless mercs.  

So now the question is.. do they have balls like the Poles or vaginas like the avg ruskie?

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10 hours ago, texasdago said:

Guys like this dick with his shiny medals as the problem... get rid of Putin and this mindset is still around.  These old Soviet blowhards need to be deposed, too.

These guys remind me of scouts with a bunch of badges.  I bet his medals are for cooking and calisthenics.

Merit Badge Sashes of the Boy Scouts of America - ScoutStuff4Sale.com -  Page 2

Cooking and calisthenics are important life skills. (I'm serious. A bunch of MFrs can't cook, do push-ups, pullups, and jumping jacks...)

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17 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Isn't Ukraine in a pact with Poland and UK that if Ukraine is attacked by more than one country then Poland and UK join the fight?

No but keep an eye on Transnistria. Romania and Moldova are BFFs. 

I wouldn't be opposed to giving Moldova a few HIMARS. That would shut that shit down.

Having said that - Transnistria broke away from Moldova back in 1991 or so. This isn't a new development. Let them be an isolated shithole if they want.

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

No but keep an eye on Transnistria. Romania and Moldova are BFFs. 

I wouldn't be opposed to giving Moldova a few HIMARS. That would shut that shit down.

Having said that - Transnistria broke away from Moldova back in 1991 or so. This isn't a new development. Let them be an isolated shithole if they want.

Well, it's a bit more than that.  There are approximately 3 to 4 brigades on non russian regulars there, with a huge ammo depot.  The Ukrainians have exhausted their stockpiles of old Soviet ammo.  That certainly has to make for a juicy target for them.  If they do it, speaking for only myself, I'd have no problem with it so long as the Moldovans sanction it and so long as the Ukrainians leave once stealing the ammo.  

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Not gonna lie... Sometimes when I read this thread, I think people want ww3.

I don't know anybody in Ukraine or Russia. I want peace. The borders aren't real. We don't keep any of it. We do lose lives.

Just now, Slacks said:

Not gonna lie... Sometimes when I read this thread, I think people want ww3.

I don't know anybody in Ukraine or Russia. I want peace. The borders aren't real. We don't keep any of it. We do lose lives.

And freedom

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7 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Not gonna lie... Sometimes when I read this thread, I think people want ww3.

I don't know anybody in Ukraine or Russia. I want peace. The borders aren't real. We don't keep any of it. We do lose lives.

And freedom

Did you just quote yourself in the post your quoting?

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11 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I fall on the side of not wanting China to contribute weapons to Russia, but, if they do, we will get our hands on more valuable equipment and information that we can use against China in the future.  It's not in China's best interests to let that happen, but we'll see.

That and we can put their shit on blast.

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I recently re-read Empire of the Summer Moon.   Reading about Comanches got me thinking about Russia.  

In the culture and history battle about who is at fault for the native American outcome, some blame the treaty, breaking and encroaching whites - and some blame the savage primitive cultural habits of the Native Americans. The truth is, no matter the fact that some elements of a culture may have merit, when the core values of a culture and society say it’s fine to make war on any innocent, it’s fine to torture them, it’s fine to kill them at your whim for whatever gain you see from it, and it’s fine to rape their women and steal their children, then that culture needs to be ended. 

Russia is like Comanchuria.  It rose to power by raiding the weaker regions surrounding their preferred homeland, and by killing anyone who lived in an area they considered theirs.   This takes no actual of actual historic boundaries, other than insisting that any area announced as theirs, they would attack anyone to prove dominance. 

You cannot treat with Russians any better then you could treat with Comanches at the council house fight. They promised to bring in the children that were kidnapped, but they lied. Like Russia, they needed kidnapped children to support their society.  So how do you deal with a savage and dangerous country living on your borders that will not respect your own right to live?

The sad answer has to be, you have to kill enough of the warriors so that the militaristic dangerous part of their culture is slapped down to the point that the remaining peopke can live with the rest of the surrounding world.

We need to finish doing to Russia what we did to the Comanche. 

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

I recently re-read Empire of the Summer Moon.   Reading about Comanches got me thinking about Russia.  

In the culture and history battle about who is at fault for the native American outcome, some blame the treaty, breaking and encroaching whites - and some blame the savage primitive cultural habits of the Native Americans. The truth is, no matter the fact that some elements of a culture may have merit, when the core values of a culture and society say it’s fine to make war on any innocent, it’s fine to torture them, it’s fine to kill them at your whim for whatever gain you see from it, and it’s fine to rape their women and steal their children, then that culture needs to be ended. 

Russia is like Comanchuria.  It rose to power by raiding the weaker regions surrounding their preferred homeland, and by killing anyone who lived in an area they considered theirs.   This takes no actual of actual historic boundaries, other than insisting that any area announced as theirs, they would attack anyone to prove dominance. 

You cannot treat with Russians any better then you could treat with Comanches at the council house fight. They promised to bring in the children that were kidnapped, but they lied. Like Russia, they needed kidnapped children to support their society.  So how do you deal with a savage and dangerous country living on your borders that will not respect your own right to live?

The sad answer has to be, you have to kill enough of the warriors so that the militaristic dangerous part of their culture is slapped down to the point that the remaining peopke can live with the rest of the surrounding world.

We need to finish doing to Russia what we did to the Comanche. 

Sure. If you're on the winning side. 

On the other hand you can be the Mongols who eradicate a substantial portion of the human race. 

There is archaeological evidence of Romans completely annihilating towns in the Iberian peninsula. Men, women, children. Then salting the earth so that no one could settle there afterwards. 

The Maoris would wipe populations off islands they discovered, returning with the women and girls as breeders.

The Vikings faced few real repercussions for their rapacious and vicious attacks on Europe. Several descendants, including the Normans and the Kievan Rus, would go on to successfully make their own conquests. 

Indigenous tribes were wiped off the face of the map in several places in North America, including Haiti/Dominican Republic, the island Columbus discovered. 

The civilizations who prosecuted the Atlantic slave trade haven't exactly been punished for what I would consider a crime against humanity. 

Human history is replete with civilizations completely wiped out by another. Purposefully. I'm certain in prehistory it was common as well, but with smaller populations involved.

It's all well and good to have a righteous cause. To me what's even more important is to possess the stronger military force with a society willing and able to wield it. Otherwise you might find your civilization no longer exists, no matter how just it is. 

In any case, no one is marching across the Russian border, so something else will have to happen. Whether it does or not. The Comanches did not possess nuclear weapons, otherwise that fight might have gone a bit differently.  

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Here's a great article from Roland Oliphant of the UK's Telegraph, who revisits some of the people he met earlier in the war to see how their lives have changed. It's an insightful look at the significant costs of the war to the people of Ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/23/face-ukraine-lost-eye-one-lucky-ones/

Spoiler

The face of Ukraine: I lost my eye, but I am one of the lucky ones

Soldier Nikita Rozhenko is one of tens of thousands grappling with life-changing injuries

ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT and Julian Simmonds, PHOTOGRAPHER23 February 2023 • 9:19pm
 

I barely recognised Nikita Rozhenko as he paced across Kharkiv’s central square one afternoon last month.

A black patch covered what was once a piercing blue eye, pronounced scars bisecting the visible part of his face, and he had grown muscular.

“I’m going back,” he said with a laugh. “With one eye and seven titanium plates in my skull, but I’m going back. I’ll just have to shoot with my left hand instead of my right.”

His war wound hadn’t done anything to his sense of humour at least.

I first met Nikita, 30, in May, when his brigade was part of an outnumbered Ukrainian force holding back a Russian artillery offensive south and west of Izyum.

A young member of Kharkiv city council, he had joined the army on the second day of the invasion.

Back then, underneath the camouflage and the assault rifle, he was just a bright-eyed politician.  

He is now one of tens of thousands of Ukrainians grappling with life-changing injuries.  

Nikita Ruzhenko
A young member of Kharkiv city council, Nikita Ruzhenko joined the army on the second day of the Russian invasion CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph
Injured soldiers are treated at the Zaporizhzhia Military Hospital in southern Ukraine
Injured soldiers are treated at the Zaporizhzhia Military Hospital in southern Ukraine CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph

Ukraine’s casualty figures are a closely guarded military secret but US officials estimated this week that 100,000 have been injured or killed.

It is clear that losses are high, and that they will have a profound impact not only on individual lives, but the fate of the nation, for years after this war is over.

 
 

And the cold numbers hide countless personal tragedies.

Those who survive have seen their lives altered in ways that most of us would dread to even imagine. Confined to wheelchairs, unable to feed themselves or even speak, they will require care for the rest of their lives.

Nikita is still getting used to focusing with one eye, and finds it difficult to pick things up.

But he is immensely fortunate.

“I am lucky several times over. Firstly, I’m lucky I’m still alive. Then I’m lucky that I’m not paralysed by the fractures in my neck. Thirdly, I’m lucky that I can still function. The brain damage in the end was not severe,” he said.  

“I have a friend, Andrei. We joined up together on February 25. He received similar trauma as me about a month later. Shell hit the dugout. He’s also got metal in his skull.

“He can’t speak. He understands everything but can’t say anything. They say if he tries hard then slowly, somehow, in two or three years, he may talk again.”

Nikita says about half the people he joined up with on Feb 25 last year have been killed or wounded.

They all knew what they were getting into, he adds, and were prepared and even expecting to die in what they thought would be a doomed defence of their country.

Viktor Pysanko
Military doctor Viktor Pysanko says ‘When this war is over, there will be another war referring to the battle with long-term physical and psychological traumas CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph
Early in the war, most soldiers were in their 20s and professionals. Now men in their 30s and 40s are coming through, and they are overwhelmingly citizen soldiers
Early in the war, most soldiers were in their 20s and professionals. Now men in their 30s and 40s are coming through, and they are overwhelmingly citizen soldiers CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph

I first met Viktor Pysanko, a military doctor, one week into the invasion, when he was running a military hospital in Zaporizhzhia.

I revisited him a few weeks ago treating soldiers from the raging battle of Bakhmut, and - just like at the beginning of the war - most of them have been injured by shrapnel and blasts from explosions.

What has changed is the nature of the patients.

Early in the war, most soldiers were in their 20s and professionals. Now men in their 30s and 40s are coming through, and they are overwhelmingly citizen soldiers.

“We are medics. Furthermore, we are soldiers. We are used to death,” he said.

“But these are ordinary guys who were programmers or window cleaners or what have you a few months ago. A few hours before they get here they have very nearly died, and also seen their friends blown to pieces next to them. That is not an easy thing to deal with.

“In two or three weeks they will have to go back and fight. And they know they might be the next ones to die.”

He says he is trying to turn the hospital into a space for the soldiers to recover mentally as well as physically. That means visits from relatives and school children, concerts, and other morale-raising events.  

“When this war is over, there will be another war,” Viktor, in his mid-30s, said, referring to the coming battle with long-term physical and psychological traumas.

When I met Viktor in the first weeks of the war he was quietly, coldly furious. The Russians had opened fire on his paramedics and sent sabotage teams to park cars across the hospital entrance.

The only way to end the nightmare, he concluded, was to kill “these f------ animals” who had invaded his country.

His anger has not subsided. If anything, it seems to have hardened, along with his intense, idiosyncratic charisma that has attracted a loyal team of fellow civilian and military surgeons, but often annoys his superiors.

The Zaporizhzhia Military Hospital treats the war wounded in southern Ukraine
Outside the Zaporizhzhia Military Hospital in southern Ukraine CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph
The operating theatre inside the military hospital
The operating theatre inside the military hospital CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph

Last year he was kicked out of Zaporizhzhia, he said, for irritating the powers that be with his willingness to speak up about shortages of equipment and other problems in medical provision.

He took the government to court for unfair dismissal and won, and is now running a smaller facility somewhere in the Kharkiv region.

The facility is basic, and short of essentials. One surgeon asked us to mention that they lack modern equipment such as C-Arm x-ray machines to allow them to scan casualties for shrapnel and bullet fragments more quickly, in the hope one might be donated.

Viktor asked me to keep the location secret and, observing the omerta on casualties, refused to discuss the numbers and severity of cases he deals with. “It depends on the front. If it is busy there, it is busy here,” he said.

He admits his methods do not always go down well with the army and its obsession with controlling visitors.

“The whole thing we are trying to do here is to create a space where they can feel normal. Where they can feel at home, and recover. Where they can be treated like heroes and know what they are fighting for,” he said.  

That is for the lightly wounded. Not men like Alexander, an infantry sergeant who was blown sideways by a Russian tank shell near Bakhmut.

Two of his men died, and only his helmet stopped the shard that would have killed him. But he told The Telegraph he expected to be back in combat in weeks.

For those more grievously hurt, Viktor says, Ukraine needs help from its allies. Thousands of people crippled for life are in need of modern long-term rehabilitative care that is simply not available in sufficient capacity in the country.

If Ukraine’s allies can send tanks, surely they could take more of those people, he argues.

Nikita tells me he does not know exactly how he was wounded. But he remembers the night on Sept 13.  

His battalion, part of an infantry brigade drawn mostly from the Kharkiv region, had been ordered forward to take part in the counter-offensive to retake Izyum.

Driving ahead of the main column in his own vehicle, he became separated in the dark from the staff officer he worked with.

Nikita Ruzhenko
‘The life I had before is not coming back. Military life - I miss it. I felt needed there. This… it’s just a pause. Life is on pause,’ says Nikita Ruzhenko CREDIT: Julian Simmonds for The Telegraph

He has tried to reconstruct what happened next. He may have hit a mine, or been ambushed, or swerved and lost control of the vehicle. His own memory goes blank for the following week.

His comrades say they found him by the side of the road, having somehow pulled himself out of his overturned and wrecked vehicle. The entire right-hand side of his body was a bloodied, bruised mess.  

In hospital, the doctors told him he had potentially serious brain damage and that the coming days would decide whether he lived or died - or so he has been told. He does not recall the conversation.

In the end, he pulled through. Although for the first three months afterwards life was like “being a prisoner in my own body. I wanted to do things and couldn’t”.The mental impact of wounds is something that also preoccupies military medics.

He thinks back to the hospital ward with a shudder. “Say a man wakes up and he has no arms. He immediately has problems. He starts to scream every night. People find it most difficult to deal with psychologically.”

He says: “The scary thing was coming back a total invalid. Someone who cannot move at all.

But he warns that even those without physical wounds will return with mental scars.

“I can speak about myself. My restraint system works ok - I can calm myself down. But sometimes I have explosions of aggression that I never had before.

“Someone says something off, and for a moment I find myself threatening to break their knees. And then I calm down and think ‘what is going on?’”

“The life I had before is not coming back. Military life - I miss it. I felt needed there. This… it’s just a pause. Life is on pause.”

He takes a breath as he reflects on the man he was before Feb 24 last year.

“That Nikita was more emotional, perhaps. More naive, more full of life, funnier. More lighthearted. I became colder in some way. In a positive sense.

“Those problems that used to worry me - something someone said, something that didn’t work out, not having enough money - these problems are no longer problems. There’s a reassessment of values. I’m alive and warm and I don’t need anything else. The cat is on my lap and I can turn on the TV. That’s all I need to be happy.” 

 

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This is an hour long video talking about the capabilities and limitations of supplying western fighters to Ukraine. I found it incredibly informative. The expert's name in this episode is Dr. Justin Bronk. He works for the Royal United Services Institute. 

His conclusion is that most western fighters would be wasted in the Ukrainian war because of the multiple layers of Russian air defenses. This forces Ukrainian pilots to engage at low altitudes with quick strikes, which precludes assets such as the UK Typhoon, the French Rafale, the F-15 and others, because they're simply not designed for that sort of fighting. 

He basically concludes the only fighters which have any chance of substantially contributing to the fight are Sweden's Gripen (his #1 choice by far) the F-18 Hornet, and the F-16. The serious problem with the F-16 in his mind is the problem of operating on runways with debris, and the issues with probably needing to extend airfields, combined with Russia likely being able to see that sort of activity. The bigger issue with the Hornet is the lack of availability. The problem with the Gripen is Sweden would be isolated because it's not part of NATO yet, and it requires the Meteor missile would require the cooperation of UK and France, since it's a joint development. But according to Bronk a squadron of 20 jets would make a substantial difference on the battlefield by forcing Russia to move air assets farther from the battlefield and to engage less effectively and less often. 

This is a relatively short synopsis and does nothing to convey the intelligence and insight Bronk brings to the fore. For anyone interested in seeing Ukraine receive fighter jets, I consider it an important viewing. That said, I still think the F-16s are a better bet politically, even with the difficulties he points out. He does admit the F-16 is the best choice for a post cease fire Ukraine. 

There's a long discussion on why the Typhoon is a terrible choice, but the discussion moves to what might be a better choice - at least somewhat - by the 19m mark. 

 

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7 hours ago, Slacks said:

Not gonna lie... Sometimes when I read this thread, I think people want ww3.

I don't know anybody in Ukraine or Russia. I want peace. The borders aren't real. We don't keep any of it. We do lose lives.

And freedom

Achieving peace isn't peaceful. The Ukrainians are fight against annihilation. 

The borders are absolutely real and matter a great deal.

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4 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

All of that is badass.

"At a meeting of the National Security Council in Warsaw, President Andrzej Duda said: "The prime minister couldn't be here, he went to Kyiv to bring Leopard tanks which are the first batch delivered to Ukraine."

Here's the short article the tweet links to:

Spoiler

Poland delivers first Leopard tanks to Ukraine

22 minutes ago22 minutes ago

President Andrzej Duda confirmed that the Polish prime minister "went to Kyiv to bring Leopard tanks" to Ukraine.

 
 
ADVERTISEMENT
 
 

Poland has confirmed delivering the first Leopard tanks to Ukraine on Friday as Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki visited Kyiv to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

At a meeting of the National Security Council in Warsaw, President Andrzej Duda said: "The prime minister couldn't be here, he went to Kyiv to bring Leopard tanks which are the first batch delivered to Ukraine."

Poland has been one of Ukraine's strongest supporters since Russia launched the war on February 24, 2022. Warsaw has repeatedly urged its NATO and EU allies to ramp up military aid to the war-torn country.

Shortly after Berlin approved the export of the German-made battle tanks, Ukrainian crews received training on the Leopard 2 tanks in Poland. 

It was not immediately clear how many tanks were delivered to Ukraine, or if they were the modern Leopard 2 or their forerunner, the Leopard 1. But had Duda said in January that Poland would give 14 Leopards to its neighbor.

More to follow...

 

The video in the link at the end says the first tanks aren't expected until the end of March. Looks like Poland decided to move that time line up a bit!

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37 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

This is really good shit right here.  Two longer range recon drones for jdams and glsdb's, both I am pretty sure can lase targets for either platform.  The smaller recon drone is perfect for the switchblade and anti-infantry activity.  Equipment and supply destruction at this point is likely more important that infantry at the moment, but they need longer range capability, this is a big leap forward for that.  

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9 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Well, it's a bit more than that.  There are approximately 3 to 4 brigades on non russian regulars there, with a huge ammo depot.  The Ukrainians have exhausted their stockpiles of old Soviet ammo.  That certainly has to make for a juicy target for them.  If they do it, speaking for only myself, I'd have no problem with it so long as the Moldovans sanction it and so long as the Ukrainians leave once stealing the ammo.  

Where are Kelly's Heroes when you need them.

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13 hours ago, Born to Run said:

I defer to better informed opinions, but I feel that cluster munitions feeds into a lot of the "both sides commit war crimes" false equivalency talking points? To the (even less) informed than myself it sounds negative and war crime adjacent.

Also does unexploded ordinance not create a problem as Ukraine is trying to retake the very territory they must shell?

(I fully understand the Russian atrocities, terror tactics etc.)

My understanding is the US Military moved away from them not because they are woke babies, but because they were seen as a military liability all things considered, and not in line with our overall focus on accuracy when blowing shit up.  Basically the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.  It’s similar to our abandonment of napalm: there are better tools for the job. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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