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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

they sent all of those shiny new missiles and not only did they all get shot down they just scratched one of the components.

"what are you going to do? bleed on me?"

 

A little more, important bit is the US has direct knowledge of the system's status:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine

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CNN — 

The damage to a Patriot air defense system following a Russian missile attack near Kyiv on Tuesday morning is minimal, three US officials tell CNN, with one official describing it as “minor” damage.

The US sent inspectors to examine the system on Tuesday after being told by Ukrainian forces that the system appeared to have been damaged, one official said.

The system itself is still operational, the officials said, and the radar component of the Patriot, one of its most important elements, was not damaged. US officials do not believe the Patriot will need to be removed from the battlefield for repairs.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I read it too quickly and thought it was some kind of rapprochement from the SA side after the recent revelation from the American ambassador, which might've indicated that pressure has been placed on SA, but on second glace, it is not so clear that this is an attempt at changing directions.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure they're part of a larger delegation from Africa, and they're very much aligned with Russia and China more so than Ukraine and the west, for a variety of reasons. But it's a good thing they're heading to Ukraine. The more information they have about the war the better, from my perspective. I don't think Zelensky is going to be able to convince them to be more pro Ukrainian, however, as much as I wish it could happen. And the South Africans particularly still want Western money, so like many countries whose rulers are really much more sympathetic to the Russian/Chinese center of gravity, they want to keep the Western spigot open a whole lot more. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Also, I'd like to note the speed at which US inspectors apparently arrived to inspect the system. I'll let the reader draw their own conclusions on where these inspectors may be based. 

Germany, Poland, US Embassy in Kiev. Wouldn't be hard to get there in a hurry from any of those locations. 

If you're saying they weren't based in the US according to the timing, I couldn't agree more. But I don't think of it as controversial if they're based where other Patriot defense systems are located in neighboring NATO allies. 

But they got there with a quickness, that's for sure!

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25 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It turns out that changing the velocity measurement from km/h to to m/h doesn't actually make the missile go faster.

Well, duh, it is a smaller number - But, you should send a note to Boca Chica, anyway, just to make sure Elon knows.

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Turkiye under Erdogan is so confusing. 

I saw Fiddler on the Roof this past Sunday. I forgot it was based out of Ukraine, in a village outside of Kyiv. Cool story, the name of the fictional village in the musical is now the name of a refugee center started in 2015 by a local rabbi. I donated to it recently just because. Here's a link to the wikipedia entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatevka_(village)

In any case, in the musical the lead character, Tevke, is constantly having these conversations about himself where he goes, "On the other hand...." I feel that way about Turkiye and their participation in this war. 

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2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I don't see it completely the same way. The Soviets worked very hard at influencing a sympathetic audience among Western countries, using the religious rhetoric of the proletariat. It was extremely effective in all kinds of ways, leading to the stealing of atomic secrets for one thing, and other advanced military systems. 

I don't know how this has anything to do with what I was talking about.  But we killed the Rosenburgs...  I don't think that was a devisive issue, then or now.

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

The Russians have been helped by the advent of social media, the tribalism and echo chambers it encourages. Anything that encourages dissent of any kind, or represents a contrarian view to the mainstream, they're going to support. Doesn't matter if it's Black Lives Matter or White Supremacist groups. And it can be difficult to discern because a lot of their messaging is hidden as part of a speak truth to power mentality that is extraordinarily seductive to any intelligent person who feels any sense of powerlessness whatsoever. And a lot of the messaging they support has some fundamental legitimacy. They just don't care about that. They seek out divisiveness in whatever form they can find. 

But let's not pretend we don't do the same kind of stuff in return. Heck, look at the recent CIA video. That's a masterpiece in manipulating legitimate Russian fears to turn traitor to the state. Never mind I agree with it wholeheartedly because it's my side doing it. 

Agreed.  After the wall came down a lot of the Soviet programs to create divisions and mistrust of facts in the west were divulged.  I wish I could find the program that detailed these efforts.  Russians were trying to promote UFO hoaxes among other things.  I wonder why the whole UFO thing is taking off again?  HMMMM

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Then there's the idea of Ukraine as a European democracy. I'd say it's more accurate to say they have strong aspirations to be a European democracy, and as a people they've been willing to sacrifice their lives and their potential future in ways I'm not sure have many equivalents in order to have one. But Ukraine has a monumentally complex history. The steppes around the Black Sea have a rich complicated past that extends well into prehistory. The Ukrainian (and Russian) people were founded by marauding Vikings who used wholesale slaughter to establish their culture. The separation into two separate cultures is marred by all the complexity of European wars of conquest, including the Polish Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the various Tsars, WWII, etc.. In following their elections post 1991 independence there was a very clear bifurcation between west and east Ukraine that always had a ton of political commentary attached to it way before 2014, with political thinkers wondering if this was a nation state that could actually exist long term. Even the Crimean takeover, while completely unjustified which should have been resisted way more stringently and forcefully by the West at the time it happened, isn't clear cut at all, given Stalin's forced relocation of the local Tartars, and the massive influx of ethnic Russians into the region. It was only given to the Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic by native Ukrainian son Khrushchev in the 50s, in a move that was protested at the time and was a huge basis for Putin's view it was a historic mistake. Crimea was arguably the strongest pro Russian region in all of Ukraine.

 

Well Ukraine is in Europe and they do vote for their leadership/politicians...  so they are, by definition a European Democracy.  I assume they aspire to become more free and democratic, but I'm not going to put them on a scale and make and uneducated decision about just how much of a valid democracy they are.

I started watching the Yale courses video on the history of Ukraine, got 4 lectures deep before I decided I didn't have that kind of time to devote to the issue, so I'll be the first to admit to being uninformed.  Also, the history of the region has little bearing on the legality of Russia's neo colonial aggression and Vikings or no, we, the US have more than a little strategic interest in aiding fledgling/emerging democracies in Europe.

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Then you have the Ukraine nationalist rhetoric which is often couched in cultures, language and history that would make many of us uncomfortable. But when you've been marginalized as a people for centuries, with the Russians and others making constant efforts to wipe your existence from the planet, you don't always get to pick your heroes. They're the ones you have. 

None of this is to discount the Ukrainian effort. I have an immense amount of respect and admiration for them as a people. An overwhelming amount, really. This truly is good versus evil in my mind. It's blatantly obvious in all kinds of ways in how the war is being conducted. Russian civilization is marred at its center by cruelty and an almost unbelievable demeaning of the value of human life. This war effort is Putin's equivalent to Hitler's Final Solution for the Ukrainian people. He thinks of them as a historic mistake as a people and like Randy Newman's short people, feels like they have no reason to live. 

But overall what I tend to feel is a great sense of gratitude for the efforts that have already been extended. I wish it was more. I wish it was a whole lot more. But there are a lot of factors at play that simply can't be dismissed. 

Agreed

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

The US is an isolationist country with isolationist tendencies that harken back to its creation.

Lol, NO  There have been periods in time where this is true, but I would argue that has not been even remotely true since the reluctant US involvement in WW1, so let's call it more than a century.

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Even with all of that there has been an amazing amount of bipartisan support for the efforts to help Ukraine. The US has slowly ratcheted up the systems they supply to the Ukrainians, from javelins and stingers, to HIMARs, to Abrams, to Patriot air defense systems. I remember bringing up the need to supply Patriot defense systems on this thread shortly after the invasion began and being told by some of the posters that's a step too far, and too risky. Now it seems like the natural progression of US support. 

We're all kind of waiting to see what this spring/summer counter offensive brings. I'm confident it's going to have a huge impact on how the war is conducted from now on. I'm hopeful for Ukraine's future, maybe even a little desperately so. But they first need to bring this war to an end on their terms, and right now that feels a long ways off. 

Agree, but I do not think the counter offensive will be as dramatic as I and other hope for.  Best case scenario is that Putin is yet another victim of the faulty window epidemic in Russia, and there is a dramatic and hopefully western shift in Russian governance.  I fear that Russia will play for a stalemate so they can further destablize Ukraine and the Balkans.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

A little more, important bit is the US has direct knowledge of the system's status:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine

 

Also from the article:

Quote

It is not clear what part of the Patriot was damaged or if it was damaged by an actual missile strike or falling debris. The Ukrainians said they successfully intercepted all six Russian Kinzhal missiles on Tuesday morning. 

One thing that needs to be super clear: the Kinzhal arrives with a half-ton explosive load. A direct hit— or “close enough” hit by that weapon in the vicinity of a launcher or any other component—  would not result in a component that could be repaired on the battlefield. Whatever damaged, it wasn’t a successful and accurate Kinzhal strike. 
 

It’s always fair to wait for more clarity and understand that AFU is not always going to be transparent about bad news. But when there’s murkiness over what happened, I will never get why anyone would lean towards the RU version. You just dunk on yourself time and time and time again, when was the last time they were accurate about something that was disputed? 

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17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One last bit on this. First, important to note that the only people who make ridiculous claims about the invincibility of their hardware and tech are the Russians. No serious analyst or practitioner would sit and tell you that Patriots are some sort of magic Iron Dome that can never fail. But when it comes time to see the stuff in action, the vatnik soup horde shrugs off all the blatant failures of Russian super tech to zero in on the one time a Western comes up short—-which everyone would tell you we knew would happen. 
 

Second, in US or Allied hands, the Patriot is part of a layered air defense that Ukraine can’t hope to deploy. As one example, no NATO foe is going to be allowed to leisurely fly MiG-31s up to the border to fire away and scoot. Our F-35s and F-22s will have a vote on that. Rough analogy, but we are kind of expecting the defensive backfield to save a touchdown while the DL and LBs watch from the bench. And— THEY’RE FUCKING DOING IT. 
 

Russia launched one of its most complex attacks with its best stuff to try and take out a Patriot system and the system is still on the battlefield.  That— is a fucking win. Period. 

Holy shit I just went to zerohedge the first time after you referenced it in a previous post. I mean...holy fucking shit. 

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1 hour ago, locodos said:

Lol, NO  There have been periods in time where this is true, but I would argue that has not been even remotely true since the reluctant US involvement in WW1, so let's call it more than a century.

Ummmm.....there was a MASSIVE isolationist movement pre-WWII.  FDR caught shit for the lend-lease program before we got directly involved in the war.

 

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One last bit on this. First, important to note that the only people who make ridiculous claims about the invincibility of their hardware and tech are the Russians. No serious analyst or practitioner would sit and tell you that Patriots are some sort of magic Iron Dome that can never fail. But when it comes time to see the stuff in action, the vatnik soup horde shrugs off all the blatant failures of Russian super tech to zero in on the one time a Western comes up short—-which everyone would tell you we knew would happen. 
 

Second, in US or Allied hands, the Patriot is part of a layered air defense that Ukraine can’t hope to deploy. As one example, no NATO foe is going to be allowed to leisurely fly MiG-31s up to the border to fire away and scoot. Our F-35s and F-22s will have a vote on that. Rough analogy, but we are kind of expecting the defensive backfield to save a touchdown while the DL and LBs watch from the bench. And— THEY’RE FUCKING DOING IT. 
 

Russia launched one of its most complex attacks with its best stuff to try and take out a Patriot system and the system is still on the battlefield.  That— is a fucking win. Period. 

Fantastic post, quoted for reference.

43 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

I was told by the American Super Christians, who were Very Very Very Upset by the news that Ukraine was taking action against Russian Orthodox clerics in Ukraine who were actively supporting the war against Ukraine, that this was unacceptable, and further proof that Russia and Putin are the TRUE "protectors of Christendom."  So, I'm waiting for them to respond with similar condemnation here.

What's that?  They're silent?

I'm shocked.  Shocked I tell you.

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Ummmm.....there was a MASSIVE isolationist movement pre-WWII.  FDR caught shit for the lend-lease program before we got directly involved in the war.

So, tell me again how the US was pulled into ww2...  Oh yeah, We sailed across the Pacific and parked a Gun boat in the harbor of a TRUELY isolationist country and FORCED them to trade with us.   Spoiler...  they didn't like it (I know this is a simplistic take, but it nicely contrasts the ideas of an isolationist country)

Perry in Japan, War in the Pacific, and the Rise of China ...

Teddy Roosevelt's big stick...  global projection of power

5pxtl3pdq3.jpg

You know, VERY isolationist stuff.

I do know that in the US in the years immediately preceding ww2 the US was looking to avoid getting sucked into another "European" war. (like a lot of other countries)  It didn't help that a lot of Germans had immigrated to the US and opposed going to war against the father land. (also fuck those nazis!) Lindbergh, ring a bell?

More to your point, but not gonna post the whole thing...  here's a link

Germany and the America First movement

 

 

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3 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

On a grain corridor note, it'll likely fade in importance with Ukraine having smaller crops to ship coming forward on account of the war and all, so they'll have less trapped grain due to overland routes anyway. The big thing for grain stuff is what Russia choses to do with their own coming off a big crop last year, and likely a smaller one this year. 

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52 minutes ago, locodos said:

Teddy Roosevelt's big stick...  global projection of power

Actually he said "prick" but because this was Victorian times or Edwardian times or whatever, and people were prudes back then, you weren't allowed to mention rogering somebody, so the media changed it to "stick".

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Actually he said "prick" but because this was Victorian times or Edwardian times or whatever, and people were prudes back then, you weren't allowed to mention rogering somebody, so the media changed it to "stick".

No wonder my Grandmother voted for him!  NOT  Women couldn't vote back then...  Sad trombone

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Russia hit Odessa earlier tonight, and the IT thread says bombers are in the air ready to launch in an hour or so. 
 
Russia launched a salvo of missiles at Ukraine’s southern city of Odessa on Wednesday night, the latest in a string of missile assaults across the country this week
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-hits-shopping-mall-in-southern-ukrainian-city-d69e80a0?st=straqklnqnts1ls&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

 Come on, air defense!

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