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Eastwood

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The Williamson article got me to read more about Bucha. It was unspeakably awful. The Russian troops and Chechen troops together were a bad mix, each trying to outdo the other in savagery. They were in a bad mood, already, as the Kyiv offensive was thwarted, and they took it out on the Ukrainian civilians. Frankly, it was akin to actions of the Imperial Japanese army in China (instead of getting their chuckles from forcing civilians to kneel so they could cut their heads off with a sword, they would tie the civilians hands and shoot them in the head for fun).

Edited by statsman
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Drones hitting civilian housing in Moscow is not good. What’s going on? It could be:

1. Ukrainian tit for tat. 
2. Ukrainian drones meant for military targets going off course

3. Partisans of Ukraine going rogue

4. Russian false flag

Given the distance to Moscow,from Ukraine, and the (crude) drone tech, my guess is #3 or #4. If it’s #3, they need to get those guys under control. 

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2 minutes ago, statsman said:

Drones hitting civilian housing in Moscow is not good. What’s going on? It could be:

1. Ukrainian tit for tat. 
2. Ukrainian drones meant for military targets going off course

3. Partisans of Ukraine going rogue

4. Russian false flag

Given the distance to Moscow,from Ukraine, and the (crude) drone tech, my guess is #3 or #4. If it’s #3, they need to get those guys under control. 

It's certainly not a good look if the Ukrainians suddenly started hitting civilian targets.  I'd understand the impulse, but given that they are dependent on western opinion and aid for this, I don't think they'd do it, at least on purpose.  Putin, on the other hand, has a history attacking his own people to serve his own needs and foster public sentiment.  My guess would be 4, for the purposes of full mobilization would be the most likely scenario.  It's interesting he withdrew from an arm's treaty yesterday, and today this happens.  

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13 hours ago, Parliament said:

Just got done using up some pos rep on the last 3 pages of this thread.  You aholes are pretty cool.  Feels like home over here.

Home like when the wife wants another baby or home when the kids get in trouble at school, the wife is upset about finances, and the HOA is bitching about you needing to cut the lawn?

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

Drones hitting civilian housing in Moscow is not good. What’s going on? It could be:

1. Ukrainian tit for tat. 
2. Ukrainian drones meant for military targets going off course

3. Partisans of Ukraine going rogue

4. Russian false flag

Given the distance to Moscow,from Ukraine, and the (crude) drone tech, my guess is #3 or #4. If it’s #3, they need to get those guys under control. 

Could be air defenses jamming signals - we know the Russians jam GPS and radio signals in certain areas.  Could also be that the Ukrainians assume it’ll be jammed so they put them on a somewhat automated course (fly this direction for this many miles).

The timing is good for Putin - if Bakhmut is stalled completely and even in danger of collapsing in areas, and the counteroffensive has not properly started, he needs fresh meat to throw in to the grinder.

This is what Putin was saying (from CNN)

Quote

The Russian president said the city's air defenses worked normally.

"The Moscow air defense system worked satisfactorily. However, there is still work to be done to make it better," Putin said in brief remarks carried by Russian state media TASS.

Quote

Putin suggested that the drone attacks had been in response to recent Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.

"The Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively with long-range high-precision weapons and only at military infrastructure facilities. Of course, some portion of these strikes is aimed at the military headquarters as well as headquarters of the Ukrainian military intelligence, which was hit two to three days ago," he said.

Old Men Laughing GIF by ABC Network
 

Because we in the West see all of the results of the Russian strikes, we know better, but many in Russia don’t have such internet or social media access, especially the olds, so they may believe Putin.

Still, this is huge for Muscovites, who may even get in on the mobilization efforts in the coming weeks.

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2 hours ago, statsman said:

Drones hitting civilian housing in Moscow is not good. What’s going on? It could be:

1. Ukrainian tit for tat. 
2. Ukrainian drones meant for military targets going off course

3. Partisans of Ukraine going rogue

4. Russian false flag

Given the distance to Moscow,from Ukraine, and the (crude) drone tech, my guess is #3 or #4. If it’s #3, they need to get those guys under control. 

Why?  The more pain/discomfort for Russia, the better, imo. 

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On 5/29/2023 at 8:41 AM, BamaATL said:

I've read estimates that they can produce 70ish missiles a month, while they still we estimated to have a few hundred previously stockpiled.  This tracks but also doesn't consider that some of these strikes are from the KH family for tactical warheads with ballast installed instead of warheads, which we know they are also using.  

What is remarkable, is even with their dwindling supply and limited ability to produce more, they still don't target military targets.  This is incredibly stupid considering that somewhere the Ukrainians are mashing formations and these could be used to target them in lieu of civilians.  This says a couple of important things, 1 The Russian intel systems must be utter shit, I mean way worse than anyone thought to include satellite surveillance.  The Ukrainian work to hide their movements I"m sure are good, but what it really indicates is just how shitty the Russian abilities are and that they are generations upon generations behind in our satellite technology.  2.  It shows that a politician of a singular mentality is in control and not a seasoned military professional.  Putin knows only one way to try to get his way when things go to shit, and that's terrorism.  A real strategic thinker wouldn't waste resources in this way.  

Lastly, and most importantly, these continued strikes prove the need for the extermination of the existing system of government in Russia.  Patton was an asshole 75 years ago, but it didn't mean he wasn't right, and he still is.  

You're probably right, but there is one legitimate reason they could be doing it. Firing 67 rockets/drones at Kyiv guarantees that UK expends at least 67 of its own air defense missiles. If they were to fire those 67 rockets at a potential military target, UK may not need to defend those positions so thoroughly, particularly if Russian accuracy is lacking. I think that's a terribly bad calculation, but it is nevertheless a possible one.  

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6 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

You're probably right, but there is one legitimate reason they could be doing it. Firing 67 rockets/drones at Kyiv guarantees that UK expends at least 67 of its own air defense missiles. If they were to fire those 67 rockets at a potential military target, UK may not need to defend those positions so thoroughly, particularly if Russian accuracy is lacking. I think that's a terribly bad calculation, but it is nevertheless a possible one.  

I think this hypothesis is the best one -- well, combined with Putin's caveman thinking.

I think there's a good bit of "the German strategy of V-1 and V-2 terror bombing" -- a power that is being denied its primary goals lashing out and using terror as a weapon is definitely in play.  But on a tactical and strategic level, I think there's something to Russia thinking "we have more strike weapons than they have capable AA -- if we force them to deplete their AA, then they'll be left vulnerable to our remaining strike weapons."  I don't think that's a super-smart play....but it at least has some semblance of tactical thinking to it.

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Per the WSJ, Ukraine says they didn’t fire the drones (they could be lying and they could be wrong- Ukraine special ops might have sent them on their own, or Russia could be lying). Russia says they’re Ukraine made UJ-22, small turboprops with the necessary range to get to Moscow from Ukraine. 
 
One way to settle it would be to inspect the intercepted drone wreckage. There are probably serial numbers on the engine. Russia is unlikely to cooperate. 
 
Russia’s best chance to win is to convince the west to drop support. There is no benefit from this attack that outweighs the need for Ukraine to stay in the west’s good graces. This needs to be handled. 

Edited by statsman
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16 minutes ago, statsman said:

Per the WSJ, Ukraine says they didn’t fire the drones (they could be lying and they could be wrong- Ukraine special ops might have sent them on their own, or Russia could be lying). Russia says they’re Ukraine made UJ-22, small turboprops with the necessary range to get to Moscow from Ukraine. 
 
One way to settle it would be to inspect the intercepted drone wreckage. There are probably serial numbers on the engine. Russia is unlikely to cooperate. 
 
Russia’s best chance to win is to convince the west to drop support. There is no benefit from this attack that outweighs the need for Ukraine to stay in the west’s good graces. This needs to be handled. 

I don't disagree....at least to the extent that these may be aimed at Russian civilian targets.  That said....

Just now, The Dog said:

 

...Ukraine is showing the Russian public how undefended the country truly is.  What air defense doing indeed?  But these should be used to target military targets, logistical points, etc.  Every Russian air base should have burning planes and fuel bunkers, for example.

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't disagree....at least to the extent that these may be aimed at Russian civilian targets.  That said....

...Ukraine is showing the Russian public how undefended the country truly is.  What air defense doing indeed?  But these should be used to target military targets, logistical points, etc.  Every Russian air base should have burning planes and fuel bunkers, for example.

Highly unlikely they were targeting civilians - these fell on civilian areas because Russia shot most of them down. 

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2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It's certainly not a good look if the Ukrainians suddenly started hitting civilian targets.  I'd understand the impulse, but given that they are dependent on western opinion and aid for this, I don't think they'd do it, at least on purpose.  Putin, on the other hand, has a history attacking his own people to serve his own needs and foster public sentiment.  My guess would be 4, for the purposes of full mobilization would be the most likely scenario.  It's interesting he withdrew from an arm's treaty yesterday, and today this happens.  

Highly doubt any civilian infrastructure was targeted by Ukraine. Those drones look slow af. First, I don't believe those things could make it all the way to Moscow without getting shot down much sooner. Second, they look pretty darn big. If Russian AD is shooting them down, that's still a big hunk of metal falling. Doesn't look like there was an explosion on that apartment building, so I'm guessing that was probably a downed drone. That video of one blowing up in a field shows they have a significant payload. If the drone had hit the apartment building while it was still armed, there'd be a shit load more damage.

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It sounds like Russian countermeasures forced the Ukrainian drones off course.

Quote

 

Explosions were reported in Moscow early on Tuesday morning, with Russia’s Defense Ministry saying that at least eight drones had targeted the capital city and the surrounding region.

All of the drones were intercepted, the ministry said in a statement, saying that electronic jamming measures forced some to deviate from intended targets and that others had been shot down outside the city limits by air defenses. It did not specify what the targets may have been.

Three residential buildings in Moscow were damaged by drones after they were intercepted, according to the office of the Russian prosecutor general. Some residents were briefly evacuated early Tuesday, said Sergei Sobyanin, the city’s mayor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/world/europe/moscow-drone-attack.html

 

 

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39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Highly unlikely they were targeting civilians - these fell on civilian areas because Russia shot most of them down. 

 

31 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Highly doubt any civilian infrastructure was targeted by Ukraine. Those drones look slow af. First, I don't believe those things could make it all the way to Moscow without getting shot down much sooner. Second, they look pretty darn big. If Russian AD is shooting them down, that's still a big hunk of metal falling. Doesn't look like there was an explosion on that apartment building, so I'm guessing that was probably a downed drone. That video of one blowing up in a field shows they have a significant payload. If the drone had hit the apartment building while it was still armed, there'd be a shit load more damage.

It has been Ukraine's MOA to not go after civilians and I hope that's the case here.  For one, it lets them keep the high ground, and two, killing civilians doesn't work.

A reply to one of those tweets taked about "volley fire" on Tula and similar military targets. That makes sense to me.  A buncha cheap drones that overwhelm whatever air defense there is, and blows up factories, rail yards, etc.

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Ukraine should be sending those drones after the Kerch bridge, the Russian Black Sea naval installations, oil refineries and storage depots near Ukraine, and strategic rail and road bridges within 100 miles of the battle area.  Use them for deep strikes needed to shape the battle area.  Psyops have value, but Ukraine needs to do real damage to the army that they are facing more than they need psyops.  In my opinion.

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Just now, Scheiss Meister said:

Ukraine should be sending those drones after the Kerch bridge, the Russian Black Sea naval installations, oil refineries and storage depots near Ukraine, and strategic rail and road bridges within 100 miles of the battle area.  Use them for deep strikes needed to shape the battle area.  Psyops have value, but Ukraine needs to do real damage to the army that they are facing more than they need psyops.  In my opinion.


take out as many refineries as possible. This should have been the plans since day 1 

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28 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I agree, those are slow moving drones and Moscow is a long way off. Why weren’t they picked up on radar sooner and intercepted ? 

hard for stuff to work when all the parts are sold for vodka.

also:

 

Edited by The Dog
WHAT AIRDEFENCE DOING?
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16 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Ukraine should be sending those drones after the Kerch bridge, the Russian Black Sea naval installations, oil refineries and storage depots near Ukraine, and strategic rail and road bridges within 100 miles of the battle area.  Use them for deep strikes needed to shape the battle area.  Psyops have value, but Ukraine needs to do real damage to the army that they are facing more than they need psyops.  In my opinion.

I suspect that, per the Williamson article, Ukraine’s defense has a couple of branches (regular army, special ops) that are relatively independent. Zelensky can deny that Ukraine had anything to do with it, and he can be truthful, as far as he knows. He’s just not “read into” every operation. 
 
Also, even though civilian housing was hit, I don’t know that it was targeted. I notice that a Ukrainian civilian was killed last night by falling debris in Kyiv, and no Russians died in Moscow. 

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14 minutes ago, statsman said:

Also, even though civilian housing was hit, I don’t know that it was targeted. I notice that a Ukrainian civilian was killed last night by falling debris in Kyiv, and no Russians died in Moscow. 

it wasn't the stupid Russians hit it with their own anti-aircraft missile (see my edited post above)

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31 minutes ago, The Dog said:

hard for stuff to work when all the parts are sold for vodka.

also:

 

How can you tell what hit the other side of the building? I don't see how this video, by itself, shows anything. Seems to me that it could easily have been a drone that the building and not a missile. But maybe I'm missing something. 

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the drones were launched with full expectation they’d be intercepted. knockin’ on putin’s door was the intention here, mission accomplished. penetrating deep into russia surely sows seeds of doubt and questions of wtf?! internally. so it’s a very bad look for the iron-fisted idiot but it’s also clear that a harder, more hateful fucking is coming. not a good time to be in the kremlin.

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