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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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6 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

How much of Putin’s strategy is waiting for the results of the 2024 elections?  Reading thru everything, it seems like Russia is proper fucked if Ukraine continues to receive western support.  Is Putin holding out hope that Russian-friendly candidates gain control in 2024 and shut off the flow of money and weapons to Ukraine, meaning if Ukraine-friendly candidates gain/win control that Putin will begin to admit defeat and come to the table?

Quite bit of his strategy, but at the same time, it appears that he's not doing the long-term things to be ready to try and retake any territory or stop Ukraine's counter-offensive if Western support dried up.  He's still not using his cruise missiles/drones/etc. against mostly military targets that Ukraine would be hard-pressed to replace (aircraft and airfield denial for instance), he still doesn't have the manpower to retake the parts of Ukraine that the Ukrainians have retaken, and he's not putting any effort into constituting new, cohesive formations at the brigade/division level that could be used in a Russian offensive - it seems like most of the recently-mobilized are just being fed piecemeal into existing formations as replacements.

The United States (and our allies) laid out the playbook for taking a medium-sized country with a decent-sized military back in 1991 and again in 2003, and Putin isn't following any of it.  We had strategic and tactical targets meant to degrade the Iraqi forces, and we were methodically destroying Iraq's ability to wage ware at the strategic level in '91 at the start of the air war (air defenses, airfields, communications facilities/infrastructure, power infrastructure that fed important installations, fuel depots, etc.), and then we moved to the tactical level (the troops that our troops would be facing).  Putin has done none of that - he rolled his forces into Ukraine in February of last year without having secured most strategic objectives, which is why the Kyiv assault was a complete failure.

6 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

My guess from all the numbers posted in this thread is that if Ukraine is going to “win” this war, that they are about 1/3 of the way there.  Is that accurate?

Maybe a little more - those expensive anti-air systems can't be replaced easily, if at all, and denying the Russians the ability to use their Black Sea fleet effectively is huge.  They are also pushing Russian supply lines back farther from the front, and they have a lot of Russian forces pinned down and unable to move for fear of a Ukrainian breakthrough. 

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8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Looks like there are other ways around funding for now

Also, I saw yesterday where the Pentagon discovered $5 billion of unspent funding the other day.  Of course this was previously unknown.  

 

I wish I could find $5 billion under my sofa cushions that I never missed. 

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Some of the worst western Kremlin propagandists have fallen out with each other. Firstly - and this can’t be emphasised enough - this is absolutely hilarious.

But let’s analyse it a bit more.

There are layers of hypocrisy here that reveal so much about the character of grifters who shill for autocracies despite having all the benefits of coming from democracies.

The Grayzone, which Max edits and Ben was once part of, is a far left American site that supports russian imperialism and every repressive non-western regime. It spreads conspiracy theories to deny their atrocities, as well as all kinds of genocidal hate. Their key contributors have repeatedly referred to the people of the Baltic countries as non-humans who deserve invasion next.

Their organisation is being torn apart because Max and Ben took opposite extremes of a wedge issue, which is hilarious because it was their job to tear apart society by pushing people to those extremes. How the turn tables. Max embraced covid conspiracy theories more popular among pro-russian extremists while Ben took the official Chinese line that China does a great job fighting covid.

So this is basically like a modern Sino-Soviet split in miniature.

The Grayzone has been very keen to present itself as pro-freedom of speech. Of course, not for non-westerners living under oppressive regimes, but for its own wealthy, privileged grifters who want to continue operating from within the comforts of the democratic world it seeks to overthrow. Yet Max is in such a rage that he didn’t think twice about revealing the Grayzone has incredibly strict censorship rules against its own staff in an attempt to prevent them getting high on their own supply of polarising discourse.

The most tone deaf part of all this though is the naked greed of these comrades.

They accuse NAFO activists of being secretly financed - unable to get their head around the fact that many millions of people impacted by russian imperialism do have agency and do have voices - yet these comrades are squabbling over decent sums of money being made in just one small part of their grifting-for-autocracy operation then have the audacity to whine about it in front of the world and chase each other around the world over it. Of course, they also use the American legal system where they can pay huge bills.

Imagine being on that bus in Nicaragua when a bunch of already very wealthy westerners start using it for a furious argument about how to split up a pile of money that is many, many times the average local salary.

They are almost a cartoon caricature of out of touch Champaign socialists with every worst possible trait.

Max doesn’t actually have much of a case here. His smoking gun is screenshots of a letter from his own lawyer, which any lawyer can tell you does not mean much. Ben is now in China. Yet despite the Grayzone’s love of China’s regime, I think Max is unlikely to travel to China and try to either cause a scene like this there in public or make use of the Chinese legal system.

The main lesson of all this:

Kremlin propagandists try to build up their mythology and try to seem intimidating. But they are just people, sad ones in their case. Russia is not luring the brightest and best people to shill for it. It’s stuck with people like Max who seriously thought this meltdown highlighting so many of their hypocrisies was a good idea.

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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Some of the worst western Kremlin propagandists have fallen out with each other. Firstly - and this can’t be emphasised enough - this is absolutely hilarious.

But let’s analyse it a bit more.

There are layers of hypocrisy here that reveal so much about the character of grifters who shill for autocracies despite having all the benefits of coming from democracies.

The Grayzone, which Max edits and Ben was once part of, is a far left American site that supports russian imperialism and every repressive non-western regime. It spreads conspiracy theories to deny their atrocities, as well as all kinds of genocidal hate. Their key contributors have repeatedly referred to the people of the Baltic countries as non-humans who deserve invasion next.

Their organisation is being torn apart because Max and Ben took opposite extremes of a wedge issue, which is hilarious because it was their job to tear apart society by pushing people to those extremes. How the turn tables. Max embraced covid conspiracy theories more popular among pro-russian extremists while Ben took the official Chinese line that China does a great job fighting covid.

So this is basically like a modern Sino-Soviet split in miniature.

The Grayzone has been very keen to present itself as pro-freedom of speech. Of course, not for non-westerners living under oppressive regimes, but for its own wealthy, privileged grifters who want to continue operating from within the comforts of the democratic world it seeks to overthrow. Yet Max is in such a rage that he didn’t think twice about revealing the Grayzone has incredibly strict censorship rules against its own staff in an attempt to prevent them getting high on their own supply of polarising discourse.

The most tone deaf part of all this though is the naked greed of these comrades.

They accuse NAFO activists of being secretly financed - unable to get their head around the fact that many millions of people impacted by russian imperialism do have agency and do have voices - yet these comrades are squabbling over decent sums of money being made in just one small part of their grifting-for-autocracy operation then have the audacity to whine about it in front of the world and chase each other around the world over it. Of course, they also use the American legal system where they can pay huge bills.

Imagine being on that bus in Nicaragua when a bunch of already very wealthy westerners start using it for a furious argument about how to split up a pile of money that is many, many times the average local salary.

They are almost a cartoon caricature of out of touch Champaign socialists with every worst possible trait.

Max doesn’t actually have much of a case here. His smoking gun is screenshots of a letter from his own lawyer, which any lawyer can tell you does not mean much. Ben is now in China. Yet despite the Grayzone’s love of China’s regime, I think Max is unlikely to travel to China and try to either cause a scene like this there in public or make use of the Chinese legal system.

The main lesson of all this:

Kremlin propagandists try to build up their mythology and try to seem intimidating. But they are just people, sad ones in their case. Russia is not luring the brightest and best people to shill for it. It’s stuck with people like Max who seriously thought this meltdown highlighting so many of their hypocrisies was a good idea.

Are they on a school bus? 

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1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

"Fragments of hand grenades were found in the bodies of those killed in the crash. There was no external impact on the plane... Yes, unfortunately, the presence of alcohol or drugs in the blood of the victims was not examined, although we know that after the known events in the company in St. Petersburg, the FSB [Federal Security Service] found not only 10 billion in cash, but also 5 kilograms of cocaine" - Putin gave heavy hints about causes of deaths of Wagner PMC leaders, Prigozhin and Utkin.

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Is it really that hard to believe?

Gotta admit, that's some straight up gangster shit.  He's telling a huge lie and he knows it and everybody there knows it, but he tells it anyways, as a warning to others that he'll have a bomb placed on your plane and blow your asses up if you fuck around.

 

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42 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Gotta admit, that's some straight up gangster shit.  He's telling a huge lie and he knows it and everybody there knows it, but he tells it anyways, as a warning to others that he'll have a bomb placed on your plane and blow your asses up if you fuck around.

 

Truly a gangsta move.  

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A fairly lengthy and honestly rambling article on the sudden rise in tensions between Poland and Ukraine. 

Here's just the opening section, which kind of sums up the immediate concern. He discusses a good bit of background about historical grievances between the two countries, including WW2 stuff and public fatigue in helping war refugees. The author concludes with comforting speculation, however, that Poland will continue to provide aid but that the countries may become future rivals within the EU.

https://kyivindependent.com/rising-far-right-pushes-warsaw-to-act-tough-on-ukraine/

Quote

 

With the Polish parliamentary elections just around the corner, the country's rising far-right threaten Poland's relations with Ukraine in more ways than one.

The Confederation party, a contender for third place in the upcoming Oct. 15 elections, is a disrupting force that pushes the country's mainstream further and further to the fringe, setting the tone for Polish foreign policy.

Traditionally Kyiv’s most ardent and vocal ally, the Polish government’s relationship with Ukraine has been recently marred by diplomatic spats and trade disputes.

The ruling right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is not only putting its foot down on Ukrainian grain imports but also chastises Kyiv for an apparent lack of gratitude for Polish support and plays on painful historical grievances.

This seemingly sudden change is not without cause – PiS is feeling the pressure of the Confederation, a far-right alliance fighting for the same voters and capitalizing on the creeping Ukraine fatigue.

At one point surging as high as 14% and, in the more recent polls, oscillating around 10%, some surveys place the "nationalist-libertarian coalition" party as potentially the third strongest candidate behind PiS's United Right coalition (≈37%) and the liberal Civic Coalition/Civic Platform (≈30%).

To halt the spilling of its voters to the more radical and hardline Confederation, PiS is forced to “up the ante” in its “Poland first” rhetoric and convince a significant part of its voter base that Law and Justice can protect their interests better than the far-right upstarts.

The ruling conservatives must also consider that the Confederation’s MPs may hold keys to the next government. With their hands likely on a strong result, the radicals may become the kingmakers of these elections, something that the current Polish government is well aware of.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Poland will continue to provide aid but that the countries may become future rivals within the EU.

My crystal ball (which is really just a snowglobe with a hula dancer in it) tells me that there's a good chance that the eastern parts of central europe have a chance of becoming a new center of gravity in Europe's economic future.  There is some real untapped potential in Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics.  Maybe even Romania and Bulgaria (nowhere to go but up, dudes).  Hungary?  Dunno.  Former Yugoslavian states?  Maybe some of them.  Once the war is over, they could be some real lands of opportunity.

I will say that in talking to some folks planning ahead, several of them told my son (international relations major) "it'd be a great idea to learn Polish."

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

My crystal ball (which is really just a snowglobe with a hula dancer in it) tells me that there's a good chance that the eastern parts of central europe have a chance of becoming a new center of gravity in Europe's economic future.  There is some real untapped potential in Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics.  Maybe even Romania and Bulgaria (nowhere to go but up, dudes).  Hungary?  Dunno.  Former Yugoslavian states?  Maybe some of them.  Once the war is over, they could be some real lands of opportunity.

I will say that in talking to some folks planning ahead, several of them told my son (international relations major) "it'd be a great idea to learn Polish."

I'd have to agree with this.  Poland is primed and ready to be an economic powerhouse in Europe.  Last I looked at the numbers (admittedly, it's been a minute), they have a lot going for them; a young educated population, wages that are favorable for development, etc.  Estonia is pretty much already a power in their own right, and very forward thinking when it comes to tech.  

I personally think the future is quite bright for Eastern Europe, more so than Western.   Especially if we can get a Ukrainian win here and a neutered Russia.  

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