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2020 Rain Thread

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Lucky you weren't directly hit like Dan Blommel at News Channel 5!

Sad stuff though, this season is ramping up already.  Usually the 3rd week of April is historically the worst, looks like we're getting it early this year.

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4 minutes ago, mulletpelini said:

Lucky you weren't directly hit like Dan Blommel at News Channel 5!

Sad stuff though, this season is ramping up already.  Usually the 3rd week of April is historically the worst, looks like we're getting it early this year.

Lest you forget the day after Christmas 4 years ago in Dallas, or two years ago, and so forth. 

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Thunderboomers went through 78717 at daybreak,  with only 1” of rain in the 15 minute downpour.

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The entire downpour in Austin seemingly occurred in the 60 seconds it took me to get my kids out of the car at daycare. I had to go home and change because I looked like I’d jumped into a pool fully clothed

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I hated that. Get dressed to go to work. Take kids to daycare in the rain. Go back home and change clothes

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47 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

The entire downpour in Austin seemingly occurred in the 60 seconds it took me to get my kids out of the car at daycare. I had to go home and change because I looked like I’d jumped into a pool fully clothed

Had to do the same because I tried to let the dog out before it really started raining.  She refused.  So naturally, my dumbass goes outside with her to stand in the, what was then, very light rain.  She takes a piss, starts searching around for landmine dropoff point, 1 big crack of lightning and the heavens opened up.  I'm soaked and covered in mud.   Spend the next 20 minutes cleaning my dress shoes, then take another damn shower, throw on jeans and Cowboy boots and head to work 30 minutes late.   She's a good pup though.  

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5 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Check out the radar now.  I don't think this was predicted.

SA getting just the tip.

Good Lord, there are lots of cows, and lots of flat rocks where that system is parked right now.   Gonna be water errwher 

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It was predicted -- I've been telling my kid his evening HS soccer match is likely to get canceled since yesterday morning.

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NWS survey team announced that it was just a single tornado that was on the ground for 50 miles that crossed Nashville and its eastern suburbs.  The Cookeville tornado was separate but produced by the same storm cell.  Latest count is 24 dead, but 22 still missing in the Cookeville area and search and rescue continues.  The 2nd deadliest tornado outbreak in Tennessee's history.

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14 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

NWS survey team announced that it was just a single tornado that was on the ground for 50 miles that crossed Nashville and its eastern suburbs.  The Cookeville tornado was separate but produced by the same storm cell.  Latest count is 24 dead, but 22 still missing in the Cookeville area and search and rescue continues.  The 2nd deadliest tornado outbreak in Tennessee's history.

And as I understand....tornado risk wasn't even predicted for that area?  It's odd to have such a big miss these days.

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Posted (edited)

It was predicted for that area or at least very close to that area.  Here is the map from 2 days ago.

day1otlk_20200302_1630_prt.gif

 

And here is the tornado probability map.  The general rule is that a tornado is X percent likely to form at any point in 25 miles from any point in the map in any direction.  This map may be a slight bit further west than what occurred, but they can't be absolutely perfect.  Not shown in the graphic below is a graphic that shows which major metropolitan areas are included in the warning box and Nashville was included in the 2% category.  Unfortunately, it 2 percented all over them.

day1probotlk_20200302_1630_torn_prt.gif

 

Here is a direct link to the page and the discussion.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day1otlk_20200302_1630.html

Edited by Hate

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Oh my god is right. There was another video that showed those cranes and I was thinking how lucky it was that the tornado didn’t hit close enough to collapse them. I believe they are only rated for 60 or 70 mph (I could be wrong). I can’t imagine how scared that guy must have been.

 

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Yeah I saw that crane traversing in the video upthread, thought it was maybe just the wind.

What in the blue fuck was he doing up there after dark anyway?

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The NWS has confirmed that it was an EF-4 tornado that hit Nashville. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/weather/tennessee-tornado-wednesday/index.html

CNN)Two powerful tornadoes with up to 175 mph winds touched down in Tennessee earlier this week, causing widespread destruction and killing 24 people.

The National Weather Service confirmed Wednesday that an EF-4 tornado hit Putnam County while an EF-3 tornado slammed Davidson and Wilson counties.
Twenty-four people were killed and hundreds of buildings were destroyed hours before dawn on Tuesday when the tornadoes slammed across the state.
Survey teams had reported damage in East Nashville, Donelson and in Mt. Juliet, about 20 miles east of Nashville, as well as extensive damage in Cookeville, but the weather service had not finalized its assessment.
When Meg Selby and her fiancé emerged from their storm cellar, they found their first home mostly destroyed after a tornado ripped through Tennessee.
Most of the roof of their Donelson home had been ripped off, the windows were blown out and their belongings had been tossed everywhere.
"It kind of just feels like it's all been taken from you," Selby said. "To not really have anything to show for it now is hard, and I, retrospectively, wish I had more pictures."
 
A day after the state's deadliest tornado day in seven years, the couple and hundreds of people across the state are assessing the damage and trying to locate one person who is still unaccounted for in Putnam County.
Selby and her fiance, Mac Warren, were sleeping when the storm alarms on their phones awoke them early Tuesday. They heard tornado sirens outside, so they corralled their dogs and headed to their storm cellar.
The couple, whose wedding is set for March 28 and who had just bought their home in September, thought the storm would pass, but the local meteorologist warned the twister was headed their way.
"Listening to her talk about the path ... the tornado was on, it went from being kind of a precautionary thing to living through something very catastrophic," Selby told CNN.
Added Warren, "It got quiet, and you could hear this sort of slow roar, and it just got gradually louder and louder."
The house started shaking, he said. The temperature dropped. The pressure intensified and his ears popped, he said.
"It was terrifying," he said.
Their wedding venue seems OK, Warren said, so the nuptials will go on as planned, but the couple say they are canceling their honeymoon to Hawaii to focus on making sure they have somewhere to live.
 

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Had to do the same because I tried to let the dog out before it really started raining.  She refused.  So naturally, my dumbass goes outside with her to stand in the, what was then, very light rain.  She takes a piss, starts searching around for landmine dropoff point, 1 big crack of lightning and the heavens opened up.  I'm soaked and covered in mud.   Spend the next 20 minutes cleaning my dress shoes, then take another damn shower, throw on jeans and Cowboy boots and head to work 30 minutes late.   She's a good pup though.  
You had to take a shower after getting rained on? Do you live in Ohio?

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Just now, Paco said:
On 3/4/2020 at 9:23 AM, Trey3216 said:
Had to do the same because I tried to let the dog out before it really started raining.  She refused.  So naturally, my dumbass goes outside with her to stand in the, what was then, very light rain.  She takes a piss, starts searching around for landmine dropoff point, 1 big crack of lightning and the heavens opened up.  I'm soaked and covered in mud.   Spend the next 20 minutes cleaning my dress shoes, then take another damn shower, throw on jeans and Cowboy boots and head to work 30 minutes late.   She's a good pup though.  

Read more  

You had to take a shower after getting rained on? Do you live in Ohio?

Had hair gel all messed up and I smelled like wet wool.  Were you raised by wolves? 

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3 hours ago, Paco said:

Yes. Are we wolf shaming now?

 

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Aren’t we always?

 

 

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Potential for big storms in Texas today and perhaps tomorrow.

image5.png?f86e4cb3a024dfd5365da1641035a

Tornado risk may be low for Austin, but increases going west and north.  Flash flood risk for DFW.

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4 hours ago, boknowstecmo said:

Confirmed tornado near Jacksboro, heading NE

Yeah, that was fun. I got home right before it hit Chico. Lotsa big hail, it was like a 90 mph fog at my place but just straight line wind. I'll check damage in the daylight. Pretty sure Chico got hammered. Radar had it right over town when the power went out. Power just now came on and my PC is dead. Had to pull out the old laptop.

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That tornado could have been a lot worse.  Towards the end of this video, the Mayor of Jonesboro syas it could have been worse if the town hadn't been sheltering in place.  he said the mall would have been packed and that place took a direct hit.  I would think that tornado will eventually be ranked as as EF-3. 

 

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Starting to hear a lot of thunder, so checked my weather app. Been awhile since I've seen rain chances in the forecast every day spanning the entirety of the 10 day forecast. 

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14 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Maybe some hail tomorrow night? Whatch'all think?

If we get hail and it fucks up my Corona Victory garden, I’m gonna be beyond pissed. 

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3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

If we get hail and it fucks up my Corona Victory garden, I’m gonna be beyond pissed. 

Just go stand outside, hold a nice piece of sheet metal over it. You will be fine. :)

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Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Service tomorrow:

day2otlk_1730.gif

day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

 

day2probotlk_1730_wind.gif

day2probotlk_1730_hail.gif

 

   ...TX...
   A could front is expected to extend roughly from northeast TX to the
   Big Bend at 18Z, although models have consistently been too slow
   with the progression of this front. While heating will occur ahead
   of the front, models suggest low-level lapse rates will not be
   particularly steep. In addition, due to the zonal flow regime, there
   will be little low-level wind response ahead of the front, with 850
   mb winds expected to be light. Still, storms that form along the
   front will be enhanced by steep midlevel lapse rates, and long mid
   to upper level hodographs. Bunkers motion from point soundings
   suggest an east of south motion is possible with the strongest
   cells. These will be capable of large hail, perhaps with isolated
   reports approaching 2". However, coverage of the strongest cells is
   expected to be limited by the undercutting cold front. The speed of
   the front will also play a large role in damaging wind potential,
   and will likely limit it in most areas. If stronger clusters of
   storms can become better organized than expected, they could travel
   farther south/east than currently expected with localized wind
   threat. Tornado threat should be very limited due to the weak
   low-level wind shear ahead of the front, along with aforementioned
   undercutting. Otherwise, sporadic, left-moving elevated cells will
   remain possible north of the front.

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13 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

We really could deal without that right now 

I'm not trying to be a dick, but why? 

It's Spring, and I'm pretty sure we've had below average precipitation for the last few months at least.

It's almost certainly going to be a normal Summer, meaning scorching heat and no rain for months on end is just around the corner.

We're all supposed to be sheltering in place anyways.  The way I see it is there's no better time than now.

Edited by Somnio

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Yeah I'm all for it as long as there's no flooding. Will be nice to get my lawn nice and healthy before the blast furnace hits and I have to rely on the sprinklers. 

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18 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I'm not trying to be a dick, but why? 

It's Spring, and I'm pretty sure we've had below average precipitation for the last few months at least.

It's almost certainly going to be a normal Summer, meaning scorching heat and no rain for months on end is just around the corner.

We're all supposed to be sheltering in place anyways.  The way I see it is there's no better time than now.

And it’ll help wash out all the fucking pollen.

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22 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I'm not trying to be a dick, but why? 

It's Spring, and I'm pretty sure we've had below average precipitation for the last few months at least.

It's almost certainly going to be a normal Summer, meaning scorching heat and no rain for months on end is just around the corner.

We're all supposed to be sheltering in place anyways.  The way I see it is there's no better time than now.

A lot of lakes in North Central TX are already high for the year.  Sheltering in place...understand your point, aside from getting outside to geT exercise daily (my dog ain’t walking in the rain).  
 

for the sanity of everyone with children.   

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