Jump to content

Markets still falling like whoa


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, gsoda3 said:

the fed isn't in the business of arbitrage so i'm not sure what you're referring to....?

the assets increasing in the fed's balance sheet aren't all going to wall street.  any type of transaction where the bank pays* money to someone is an asset.  so that asset number you hear every thursday after the close is a snapshot in time of the value of their "cash" transactions.  that number has increased from a little over $4T before 3/11/2020 to now a little over $6T.  that includes the sum total of everything the fed has transacted since 3/11/2020:  repos, corporate bond purchases, muni bond purchases, CARES act, even dollar line swaps with other (new) central banks.

so if you're looking for a money amount that's going straight to wall street, looking at the fed's balance sheet assets isn't the way to do it.  that number certainly includes money going to wall street but even that number as it stands is less than $2T.  to find the exact number you'll have to dig a lot deeper.  a couple posts back i bolded what parts of the fed actions have been directed at wall street (and a couple of those bolded actually include main street also), but even within those actions you would hard pressed to call several of those line items "bailing" out wall street. 

*most of the time, as in the case of repos, no cash changes hand the way you would imagine like a craigslist deal.  instead they're accounting entries and if say a bank ever needs actual cash then they would facilitate that transfer.   remember, the fed's main purpose is to keep the financial system stable and most of their efforts are usually aimed at establishing the proper interest rate.

I never said the Fed benefits from repo operations arb, I said Wall St does (primary dealers).

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers

As far as the Fed's balance sheet, it will be over 10 Trill, and the lion's share of that will go to Wall St, not Main st.  To my knowledge, all the assets that the Fed purchases are through primary dealers only.  Not to mention TARP.

I'm not saying it's the Fed's job to support Main St, I'm just stating who is and who isn't getting their money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I'm really fighting against the urge to move my 401k into cash at this point.  I'm only 40 and know it's usually unwise to fight against the brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and try to time things, but the irrationality of the market rallying into the face of depression level unemployment and earnings is tough to ignore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, bluto said:

Soooo looks like after hours shit just exploded and everything(?) bounced.... bigly.

Story just broke that Gilead's initial Remdesivir trials are showing promise. Out of 113 severe cases, only 2 deaths and most were discharged within a week. Gilead stock is surging in after-hours trading. Up $10 in the past 30 minutes.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

Quote

U.S. stock futures surged on Thursday night after a report said a Gilead Sciences drug was showing effectiveness in treating the coronavirus. The move pointed to a jump for the stock market on Friday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 700 points, or about 3%. S&P 500 futures gained 2.8% while Nasdaq 100 futures were up by 1.8%.

 

Gilead shares jumped by 14% in after-hours trading after STAT news reported that a Chicago hospital treating coronavirus patients with Remdesivir in a trial were recovering rapidly from severe symptoms. The publication cited a video it obtained where the trial results were discussed.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

 

This isn't particularly compelling without a control group with random assignment for reference, or detailed information on the viral load and clinical characteristics, but the ID specialist feels good about the results so that is definitely a good sign. And if it moves the market in the short term, I'll take it.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

 

This isn't particularly compelling without a control group with random assignment for reference, or detailed information on the viral load and clinical characteristics, but the ID specialist feels good about the results so that is definitely a good sign. And if it moves the market in the short term, I'll take it.  

Gilead stock is only up 15% ah. Seems like it would be significantly higher if it has the cure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Gilead stock is only up 15% ah. Seems like it would be significantly higher if it has the cure. 

It's being called a treatment instead of a cure. I'll buy some calls at the open tomorrow and ride the wave a little, but the moment a hint of bad news about the controlled study breaks...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

I never said the Fed benefits from repo operations arb, I said Wall St does (primary dealers).

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers

As far as the Fed's balance sheet, it will be over 10 Trill, and the lion's share of that will go to Wall St, not Main st.  To my knowledge, all the assets that the Fed purchases are through primary dealers only.  Not to mention TARP.

I'm not saying it's the Fed's job to support Main St, I'm just stating who is and who isn't getting their money.

 

 

1.)  there's no arb in repos.  it's a short term duration loan, simple as that.  the fed steps in as a lender of last resort when banks are less willing to lend.  

2.)  again, the asset line on the fed's balance sheet isn't indicative of the bailout amount going to wall street.  i thought i summed it up pretty well in my previous post with a good explanation of why that is.  

3.)  the federal reserve's assets include many many more accounts than just the primary dealer accounts.  there are thousands of other banks who hold deposit accounts within the Federal Reserve Banks (there are 7).  those are all included in the assets line.  additionally the fed also lends to other borrowers who do NOT have accounts with the federal reserve.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Gilead stock is only up 15% ah. Seems like it would be significantly higher if it has the cure. 

still climbing.  it already jumped a bit (a few days or weeks ago, can't keep up) with the initial news of remdesivir trials

Edited by Hmmm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
1.)  there's no arb in repos.  it's a short term duration loan, simple as that.  the fed steps in as a lender of last resort when banks are less willing to lend.  
2.)  again, the asset line on the fed's balance sheet isn't indicative of the bailout amount going to wall street.  i thought i summed it up pretty well in my previous post with a good explanation of why that is.  
3.)  the federal reserve's assets include many many more accounts than just the primary dealer accounts.  there are thousands of other banks who hold deposit accounts within the Federal Reserve Banks (there are 7).  those are all included in the assets line.  additionally the fed also lends to other borrowers who do NOT have accounts with the federal reserve.  

Sure there is arb, the Fed even acknowledges it here

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/FEDS/2012/201221/

Nothing you have posted proves that the Feds actions are not pumping money into commercial banks (Wall St)
Link to comment
Share on other sites




Sure there is arb, the Fed even acknowledges it here

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/FEDS/2012/201221/

Nothing you have posted proves that the Feds actions are not pumping money into commercial banks (Wall St)


That paper's talking about traders arbing the different interest rates. What we're talking about is the actual function of the overnight repos- the purpose and mechanism of what the fed does with the banks.

The original assertion was the fed gave 10 trillion to wall Street. But now you're moving the goal post to "Nothing you have posted proves that the Feds actions are not pumping money into commercial banks (Wall St)".
Link to comment
Share on other sites






That paper's talking about traders arbing the different interest rates. What we're talking about is the actual function of the overnight repos- the purpose and mechanism of what the fed does with the banks.

The original assertion was the fed gave 10 trillion to wall Street. But now you're moving the goal post to "Nothing you have posted proves that the Feds actions are not pumping money into commercial banks (Wall St)".

I’m not moving shit. You’re the one who said they WILL NOT give 10 trillion to Wall St. It’s a process that has been on going since 2009 and WILL get to that number before they try and unwind. You are wrong and I’m done
Link to comment
Share on other sites


I’m not moving shit. You’re the one who said they WILL NOT give 10 trillion to Wall St. It’s a process that has been on going since 2009 and WILL get to that number before they try and unwind. You are wrong and I’m done
It's quite clear you're emotionally invested in this so anything I've explained isn't getting through. When you're more interested in learning than being right these threads will always be here.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

https://technocodex.com/stock-futures-surge-after-coronavirus-drug-report/

Quote

In a statement after its shares lept, Gilead urged caution. “We understand the urgent need for a Covid-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug remdesivir. The totality of the data need to be analysed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial,” it said.

“Anecdotal reports, while encouraging, do not provide the statistical power necessary to determine the safety and efficacy profile of remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19. We expect the data from our Phase 3 study in patients with severe Covid-19 infection to be available at the end of this month, and additional data from other studies to become available in May.”

Found it interesting that the source of the news that caused the after hours market surge was Stat news, a pharmaceutical trade publication, rather than Gilead itself. Leads me to believe that as people digest the information and the response from Gilead, most of the bump attributed to this story will be short lived. Thats OK, there's always Jpow and his big green strap-on to the rescue. 

Edit - here's another article on remdesivir likely referencing those "other studies"

https://www.biospace.com/article/data-from-gilead-s-compassionate-use-of-remdesivir-for-covid-19-looks-promising/ 

Quote

Gilead Sciences is running at least five clinical trials for its experimental antiviral drug remdesivir against COVID-19. Readouts for at least one or two of them will occur this month. Meanwhile, more than 1,800 patients have been treated using the drug on an individual compassionate use basis so far. And they published data in the New England Journal of Medicine on 53 of those patients suggesting promising results.

The study of the 53 patients in the U.S., Europe and Canada who required respiratory support showed that about two-thirds benefited from the drug. About half of the patients received mechanical ventilation and four were on a heart-lung by-pass machine. Eight patients were excluded from analysis, one because of a dosing error and seven because there was no information available on how they did.

 

Quote

“In studying remdesivir, the question is not just whether it is safe and effective against COVID-19, but in which patients it shows activity, how long should they receive treatment and at what stage of their disease would treatment be most beneficial,” said Daniel O’Day, Gilead’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Many answers are needed, which is why we need multiple types of studies involving many types of patients.”

Remdesivir is a broad-spectrum antiviral originally developed to treat Ebola, but was ineffective. In preclinical work conducted at the University of North Carolina and Vanderbilt University before the pandemic, it had shown promise against a wide range of viruses, including coronaviruses. In Ebola it had been found to be safe but ineffective. But the data acquired in those trials helped move it to more advanced trials in COVID-19.

That being said, about 25% of patients receiving it have severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% demonstrated evidence of liver damage on lab tests.

 

Edited by Blotto
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you were looking to get short and haven’t yet, today might be the day. This looks like a “blow off top” of this big move off the bottom. $Gild drug not going to make life go back to normal.

Also full disclosure, and unproven, but the article author has been accused of doing dirty work for hedge funds before. This is quite a pump off that. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

If you were looking to get short and haven’t yet, today might be the day. This looks like a “blow off top” of this big move off the bottom. $Gild drug not going to make life go back to normal.

Also full disclosure, and unproven, but the article author has been accused of doing dirty work for hedge funds before. This is quite a pump off that. 

Agreed.  If you haven't, put trailing stop on all your shit. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...