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2021 World Series: Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves


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4 hours ago, Helobious said:

Lol. No one is making 8 LCS’s in 10 years in this day and age. Late 90s yanks couldn’t even do that. This is the end of the line for the Astros, which is why winning this series is so important. Correa is gone. Altuve is showing you his future going forward. No idea on Bregs status but he won’t stay much longer. Yordan is a monster and will be the cornerstone of the team but he’s just one guy. Too streaky as well. You guys will still win the West because it sucks that bad but your run is 100% over starting next year. 

Cary Elwes in The Princes Bride saying, “Truly, you have a dizzying  intellect.” | Smart Bitches, Trashy Books

 

correa is gone and he's been pretty quiet this postseason.  greinke and verlander are gone as well.  pretty much everyone who has gotten the team within 3 games of another title will be back.  our best hitters - altuve, bregs, tucker, yordan, brantley, yuli are locked up.  our best pitchers - mccullers, garcia, framber, urquidy, pressly are locked up. 

we shed about $80mm so i guess maybe we'll spend some of that.

correa is a team leader and it sucks that he'll bounce for a big contract, but we'll be just fine.  thank you for your concern.

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49 minutes ago, WBT said:

They're not talking about fewer rounds than the guys ahead of him.  They're talking about fewer rounds than Ruth, Mantle, Reggie Jackson, etc.  It's a perfectly cromulent point.

Exactly.  But this should embiggen Altuve’s status among those who played in the Division Series era.

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21 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

the exact same point i've been making this entire time: the astros fans in this forum who all but declared the series over before it started and who shit on the braves lineup were wrong.

You seem a bit chafed, maybe you should try some cornstarch? To repeat what I and others have repeatedly told you: no Astros fan declared this series over nor have any of us been shitting on the Braves lineup, we are simply adding important context to your overly indulgent, simplistic bitchfits. The Braves are a very good team but their lineup is not better than the Astros, White Sox, or Red Sox and they have not faced harder competition than the Astros.

 

21 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

stop using season long statistics to describe the Braves offense. you're better than that wulaw. it's so blatantly disingenuous it's just stupid. especially coming from Astros fans.

We are using season long statistics because they are typically more reliable than the smaller sample size stats that we can usually expect to see some regression to the mean. And if you want to emphasize that post Aug 1 sample size over the larger season, why can't I argue that you should just limit it to the 30-day wins/losses where the Braves (18-12) are only one game better than the Astros, Red Sox, and White Sox (17-13) but worse than the Mariners (20-10)? We all understand the point you keep insisting we're ignoring, but we don't think those four players the Braves traded for are as determinative as you because the numbers say otherwise. And why are we supposed to put such emphasis on that change to the Braves lineup when, for example, the White Sox lost key players for much of the season. How many games were they without Grandal, Robert, Jimenez, Engel, and Anderson??? Any idea Derka?

 

21 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 you keep screaming about how your astros brethren are "just posting facts"; guess what? so did i, and every time i did those facts (acquired four hitters at the trade deadline, 20 games above .500 since the trade deadline, scoring 5.2 runs per game since the trade deadline, posting Ozzie Albies' production, etc) it was met with entitled, dismissive bullshit. "they're worse than white sox"; "they only have three good hitters"; "Ozzie Albies has been average"; "YAWN".

Those facts don't mean half as much as you want to believe. Let me break it down for you so you can understand it better.

Atlanta's W/L record from Aug 1 to the end of the season was 36-19. Of those 55 games, 34 were against losing teams including 15 games against the Marlins  and Nationals. They also included opponents such as Arizona, Colorado, Baltimore, and the Mets. Of these 34 games against sub-.500 teams, the Braves feasted to the tune of 25-9, which accounts for 69% of those wins you’re ballyhooing as the best team in baseball since the trade deadline. Of the 21 games vs +>.500 teams they were 11-10. Credit where credit is due, they won games they should win against inferior teams, but when you put a little more context into that "best record in MLB since the trade deadline!!!" it doesn't hit quite the same, does it?

Let's dig into a comparative analysis of the offensive numbers. THESE ARE ALL FROM AUG 1st AND NOT THE FULL SEASON:

 

Runs scored/gm 

TB 5.77

BOS 5.38

ATL 5.15

LAD 5.05

HOU 5.02

CWS 4.82

MIL 4.58

Team OPS 

BOS .811 (2nd)

HOU .787 (4th)

CWS .774 (7th)

LAD .766 (10th)

ATL .760 (12th)

TEAM wRC+

HOU 117 (3rd)

BOS 116 (4th)

CWS 113 (5th)

LAD 106 (9th)

ATL 99 (12th)

TEAM wOBA 

BOS .347 (2nd)

HOU .337 (4th)

CWS .335 (5th)

LAD .327 (11th)

ATL .324 (12th)

TEAM BB/K 

BOS .44 (3rd)

HOU .43 (5th)

LAD .42 (8th)

CWS .41 (9th)

ATL .36 (19th)

TEAM BA

Bos .269 (1st)

HOU .269 (2nd)

CWS .265 (4th)

ATL .246 (14th)

TEAM HARD HIT %

BOS 43.6% (1st)

HOU 41.1% (4th)

LAD 40.7% (5th)

CWS 39.8% (7th)

ATL 39.7% (8th)

 

I do not post these numbers as any slam dunk prediction on who wins the World Series because anything can happen in the post-season best-of-seven series, any unheralded player can get hot and  be a hero and an All-Star struggle at the plate. But you are simply wrong if you think the Braves offense has been better through the regular season AND  since Aug 1st, because the numbers do not support your argument. All you have is 36-19, and that's just not all that informative.

No go cry some more you little bitch.

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7 minutes ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

Fozzz with the wOBA after 2 games. Never change, bro. 

What are you trying to say?  I'm just pointing out that the Astros pen has been dominant since at least the beginning of the ALCS.  If the Astros end up winning the World Series they will be one of the biggest reasons why.

The way the Astros have constructed their pen interests me.  They have really invested in the gyroball fad with Pressly, Yimi, and particularly Maton, the king of gyrospin.  

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Derka, 

You keep talking about the 4 guys at the deadline OMG the OF the OF the OF.  They plugged holes man.  There's nobody special that came over in that group. They made sure that they had average to above average guys in every spot.  And that's commendable.  Not having people that are terrible at their job is a good thing and it leads to wins!

But if we are being honest with ourselves, if I'm talking only true talent level and not some stupid 60 game sample I'd prefer Acuna, Ozuna and you and I platooning in the OF to what they have right now.  Joc Pederson is a JAG, Duvall has sooooo much swing and miss to him and zero ability to walk. He can hit the long ball pretty regularly but I really really really value guys that can get on base more than thump when I'm putting together a line up if I have to take one or another, and Rosario has a 7 year career track record now of being a decent player that's nothing special.  In ATL he has a 903 OPS in 33 games, but I will choose to believe the back of the bubblegum card that says he's a 790 ops guy worth 2 war per season.  Guess what 2 war per season is? The bench mark for an average big league regular.  There's power in average.  Make that your worst position and you will win games.  Lots of games.  But some might even yawn dismissively at a World Series team that without Acuna is basically 3 guys that profile with above average to ALL star WAR (Freeman, Riley and Albies) and a bunch of other guys that are average.

Compare that to Chicago white sox with 5 offensive players over 3 war, the Red Sox with 4 guys over 3 and 2 more over 2, or the astros with 5 guys over 3, and 8 guys over 2 (aka their enitre lineup other than Machete).  

And again, neither I nor anyone else is saying that means the Astros are guaranteed to win. Just that this Braves team is not any better offensively (yes even post trade deadline where they added average to good- not great players to the OF) than either of the Sox and certainly not as good as the Astros.  But it's now best out of 5 and anything can happen in baseball.  Now, if Acuna was healthy and Ozona wasn't distracted by thoughts of when and how he was going to beat his wife and was the guy that wrecked shop last year that lineup is a bitch b/c you have a couple good table setters that can run and then you have 4 guys that can really hurt you.  

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13 minutes ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

I’m saying this. 

Only the crowd-sourced, FanGraghs champion would really care about such a small sample. 

The Astros pen is pretty meh. We have a 162 game sample size- and for most other guys in there a career sample size- that says that.  It's interesting to see how good they have performed in this post season in the sense that it's a story- not in the sense that they are now the world beaters they are currently pitching like.  I hope the alarm clock doesn't wake them up for another 7 days, obviously, but I'm not going to all of a sudden start trusting them.

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11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Compare that to Chicago white sox with 5 offensive players over 3 war, the Red Sox with 4 guys over 3 and 2 more over 2, or the astros with 5 guys over 3, and 8 guys over 2 (aka their enitre lineup other than Machete).  

And again, neither I nor anyone else is saying that means the Astros are guaranteed to win. Just that this Braves team is not any better offensively (yes even post trade deadline where they added average to good- not great players to the OF) than either of the Sox and certainly not as good as the Astros.  But it's now best out of 5 and anything can happen in baseball. 

Seems like the Braves offense relies heavily on HRs and is susceptible to strike outs and doesn't generate as many walks as the White Sox or Red Sox. The key for the Astros pitching is to limit those free bases so that they're not giving up the big innings via the long ball that we saw in that one game vs Chicago and those early games vs the Red Sox. 

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36 minutes ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

I’m saying this. 

Only the crowd-sourced, FanGraghs champion would really care about such a small sample. 

I'm using those stats descriptively.  I'm not using them to form any kind of prediction about how this series will play out from today.  I thought that was clear from my post but maybe it wasn't.  

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16 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Seems like the Braves offense relies heavily on HRs and is susceptible to strike outs and doesn't generate as many walks as the White Sox or Red Sox. The key for the Astros pitching is to limit those free bases so that they're not giving up the big innings via the long ball that we saw in that one game vs Chicago and those early games vs the Red Sox. 

The Braves are 12th in walks  11th in strike outs and 12th in Average.  12th in OBP.  5th in slugging 3rd in HR.  21st in steals.  

This team is pretty much a little above average in everything they do other than hit HR's, where they are top of the list.  Keep them off the basepaths and let them hit solo HR's and they aren't likely to beat you 4 out of 7.  

The Astros lead the league in Average and OBP and are top 10 in walks. Their slugging is 3rd but I bet that's being propped up by their high average and they probably have a much lower ISO than the Braves in a relative sense on a team list.  Their actual difference in ISO is 177 houston v 191 for the Braves.  This is pretty instructive in how the scoring went down too- the Braves have scored in what- 5 innings and 3 of them with a HR and the other two innings that didn't have a HR they scratched across 1 run.  The Astros have scored in 5 innings- only 1 of them with a HR and their big output didn't involve an extra base hit.  

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47 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The Astros pen is pretty meh. We have a 162 game sample size- and for most other guys in there a career sample size- that says that.  It's interesting to see how good they have performed in this post season in the sense that it's a story- not in the sense that they are now the world beaters they are currently pitching like.  I hope the alarm clock doesn't wake them up for another 7 days, obviously, but I'm not going to all of a sudden start trusting them.

It's not the Yankees or White Sox pens but the stuff from our relievers is pretty good.  Pressly is an elite closer.  Graveman has returned to form now that he's given up trying to bring his cruveball back.  Maton obviously has bigtime strikeout stuff and Javier has returned to form with his slider being one of the deadliest pitches thrown by anyone in this series.  Also, Raley is probably one of the most underrated relievers in the sport.

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1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

For what it’s worth, Jackson played in 77 postseason games.

Jackson was the Man in the postseason as well, even if he is 4 HRs behind Altuve. One, Jackson's 77 games included 21 games after he was 35. Two, I'm sure he played in a more deadball era with multi-purpose stadiums.  Drop him in Minute Maid he would be further up the list.

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Jackson was the Man in the postseason as well, even if he is 4 HRs behind Altuve. One, Jackson's 77 games included 21 games after he was 35. Two, I'm sure he played in a more deadball era with multi-purpose stadiums.  Drop him in Minute Maid he would be further up the list.

never mind

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3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

So the line you're willing to cross with your rooting interest is somewhere on the other side of human trafficking but on this side of Donald Trump. Interesting.

The "helping Cubans escape an oppressive communist regime is equal to human trafficking" schtick is regarded.

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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Interesting response to human trafficking violations, but at least you're committed to it. 

What happened to the Huckleberry who used to be a good poster?  Not necessarily a knowledgeable baseball poster, but certainly not this cunty imitation with the same handle. Ah well. 

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