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Do we have a McAullife vs. Younkin thread?


Gil Bang

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2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If a statewide Virginia race is tight, that’s terrible news for Dems.  VA should be solid blue by now.

It's going to be "tight" in the way that CA Recall was supposedly going to be "tight" and Newsom won by 20+. 

Is VA just hard to poll in off years or are pollsters expecting a giant backlash for Dems, such as the CA Recall polling?  All of the 2021 elections so far have given results that 2021 is looking more like 2020 than 2010/2014. 

The polling average of the 2017 race was Northam +3.3 on November 5.  The actual result was Northam +8.9.  No one whines about the polls being SO WRONG when Northam outperformed them by 5.5 points. 

Here were the 2017 polls a week out:  Gillespie +2, tied, Northam +17, Northam +5, tied, Northam +3, Northam +5, tied, Gillespie +3, Gillespie +3, Northam +3 

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If a statewide Virginia race is tight, that’s terrible news for Dems.  VA should be solid blue by now.

yeah, that's what i'm worried about too.

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's going to be "tight" in the way that CA Recall was supposedly going to be "tight" and Newsom won by 20+. 

Is VA just hard to poll in off years or are pollsters expecting a giant backlash for Dems, such as the CA Recall polling?  All of the 2021 elections so far have given results that 2021 is looking more like 2020 than 2010/2014. 

The polling average of the 2017 race was Northam +3.3 on November 5.  The actual result was Northam +8.9.  No one whines about the polls being SO WRONG when Northam outperformed them by 5.5 points. 

Here were the 2017 polls a week out:  Gillespie +2, tied, Northam +17, Northam +5, tied, Northam +3, Northam +5, tied, Gillespie +3, Gillespie +3, Northam +3 

oh. it's because i'm an idiot and don't really know anything.

 

this is a good board with folks with a lot of info.

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It's going to be close and I'm not going to be surprised if Youngkin pulls it out.  There's just a different vibe out there this year.  Lots of people up here in the suburbs (where Dems have been dominant of late) are still pretty angry and fired up over how the school districts have handled Covid over the last couple of years. Add in some proposed  watering down of curriculums that was being pushed earlier this year, it's just not a good situation.  I think there are going to be a good number of voters in NoVa that are upset enough with the almost entirely Dem school boards that they will take it out on McAullife.

Youngkin has run a pretty smart campaign - staying away form Trumpy issues and focusing mainly on schools.  Little bit of crime thrown in along with eliminating the grocery tax.  McAullife really fucked up at one of the debates where he said that parents shouldn't be allowed to tell schools what to teach.  This soundbite has been all over the airwaves since and is unfortunately very effective - voters just don't get the nuance of what he was trying to say.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

It's going to be close and I'm not going to be surprised if Youngkin pulls it out.  There's just a different vibe out there this year.  Lots of people up here in the suburbs (where Dems have been dominant of late) are still pretty angry and fired up over how the school districts have handled Covid over the last couple of years. Add in some proposed  watering down of curriculums that was being pushed earlier this year, it's just not a good situation.  I think there are going to be a good number of voters in NoVa that are upset enough with the almost entirely Dem school boards that they will take it out on McAullife.

Youngkin has run a pretty smart campaign - staying away form Trumpy issues and focusing mainly on schools.  Little bit of crime thrown in along with eliminating the grocery tax.  McAullife really fucked up at one of the debates where he said that parents shouldn't be allowed to tell schools what to teach.  This soundbite has been all over the airwaves since and is unfortunately very effective - voters just don't get the nuance of what he was trying to say.

 

 

From the sound of your post, VA voters are morons.  Maybe they shouldn't be allowed to tell the schools what to teach.

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If parents want to tell schools what to teach, they should just home school their kids then.  Schools can't cater to hundreds or thousands of parents and what they want their precious little snowflakes to be taught. 

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34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's going to be "tight" in the way that CA Recall was supposedly going to be "tight" and Newsom won by 20+. 

Is VA just hard to poll in off years or are pollsters expecting a giant backlash for Dems, such as the CA Recall polling?  All of the 2021 elections so far have given results that 2021 is looking more like 2020 than 2010/2014. 

The polling average of the 2017 race was Northam +3.3 on November 5.  The actual result was Northam +8.9.  No one whines about the polls being SO WRONG when Northam outperformed them by 5.5 points. 

Here were the 2017 polls a week out:  Gillespie +2, tied, Northam +17, Northam +5, tied, Northam +3, Northam +5, tied, Gillespie +3, Gillespie +3, Northam +3 

The Charlottesville incident happened like 3 months before the election in 2017 so the landscape was different than it is now. Still think McAuliffe wins but by not nearly as much as Northam did in 2017.

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Just now, deac_tracy said:

The Charlottesville incident happened like 3 months before the election in 2017 so the landscape was different than it is now. Still think McAuliffe wins but by not nearly as much as Northam did in 2017.

I also don't think T-Mac wins by 9.  I'd say 4-5, maybe 6, points is more likely.

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20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If parents want to tell schools what to teach, they should just home school their kids then.  Schools can't cater to hundreds or thousands of parents and what they want their precious little snowflakes to be taught. 

 

This right here.  But Cletus and Jimbo down on the Va-Ky border don't understand nuance.  Throw in a little racism fearmongering (CRT) and a large part of the state is a lost cause.

 

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I also don't think T-Mac wins by 9.  I'd say 4-5, maybe 6, points is more likely.

 

I hope you're right but I'm thinking it's going to be within a point or two either way.

Edited by Bevo in VA
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

If parents want to tell schools what to teach, they should just home school their kids then.  Schools can't cater to hundreds or thousands of parents and what they want their precious little snowflakes to be taught. 

Tell me you don't have any kids without telling me you don't have any kids.

I'd be shocked if an R can win in Virginia but it looks basically like a dead heat.  

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13 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Tell me you don't have any kids without telling me you don't have any kids.

I'd be shocked if an R can win in Virginia but it looks basically like a dead heat.  

Fuck your crotch fruit and your feelings.  Home school your little fucks if you wilt at the thought of them learning something that offends your delicate sensibilities. 

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I think a lot of people overlook how red parts of Virginia are outside of the D.C. suburbs.   Go down to Roanoke or Blacksburg and I bet there are still a shit ton of Trump flags still flying.   I have family in Chesapeake (Virginia Beach/Norfolk area.)   The t-shirts shops along the boardwalk in Virginia Beach STILL sell stuff with Confederate (Battle) flag on it.   

Some of those folks probably sat 2020 out but the school issues of the past 18 months are going to bring them back.   I hope I'm wrong and McAullife wins but I will not be surprised if he loses.

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3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Early voting break downs by Congressional district

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

If anyone is curious - VA is on pace for 950k - 1million early votes.  Fairfax (NOVA) was late in opening up early person sites. 

The top 3 voting districts are VA-10 (D+6, Wexton), VA-08 (Beyer, D+27) and VA-07 (Spanberger, R+3).  5 of the top 6 congressional districts are represented by Democrats - 
VA-01 (Wittman, R+6) is fourth.  VA-10 is almost at 100,000 early votes.

2 of the bottom 3 districts in early voting are GOP represented - VA-06 (Cline, R+14) and VA-09 (Griffith, R+23) and Va-03 (Scott, D+16). 

Dem-represented districts:  562,314 early votes
GOP-represented districts: 269,780 early votes

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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Youngkin is not getting 24% of the black vote. 

I will let immamac ban me from the CR for a year if that happens.  Which it won't. 

Youngkin only getting 56% of the white vote seems like a bigger outlier. 

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I've always been fascinated (in a weird, perverse way that understands how Protestants discriminate against Catholics kind of way) on how Hispanics lean Republican.  History tells us that when Protestants hold power (England, Scotland, Holland) they consolidate support amongst the low IQ Presbyterians, Lutherans, Methodists and Baptists and then send them out to brow-beat, castigate, beat down the Catholics.   It's an issue reaching back to the 1500s.   But Catholics fall for it every time.  

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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Fuck your crotch fruit and your feelings.  Home school your little fucks if you wilt at the thought of them learning something that offends your delicate sensibilities. 

Telling parents to just home school if they don't like what they are learning at school is callous at best.  Let's see how that message plus running on 'But Trump' works for Terry.

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I think you're very wrong on that, but you love to be contrarian.  

Monmouth has him around that #. Previous two R candidates got 57-58% of the R vote. This guy is a better candidate than Gillepsie and Cuccinelli. Mix in a little CRT, DTP, and Caravan scare tactics, it's not farfetched to believe he will get north of 60% of the white vote. 

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2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

I've always been fascinated (in a weird, perverse way that understands how Protestants discriminate against Catholics kind of way) on how Hispanics lean Republican.  History tells us that when Protestants hold power (England, Scotland, Holland) they consolidate support amongst the low IQ Presbyterians, Lutherans, Methodists and Baptists and then send them out to brow-beat, castigate, beat down the Catholics.   It's an issue reaching back to the 1500s.   But Catholics fall for it every time.  

When I was growing up, my church taught me that white people are Protestant, brown people are Catholics, and all Catholics are going to Hell.

I was in college before I knowingly met a white Catholic.

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3 hours ago, Bookman said:

When I was growing up, my church taught me that white people are Protestant, brown people are Catholics, and all Catholics are going to Hell.

I was in college before I knowingly met a white Catholic.

That’s insane to me. On multiple levels.
 

just curious, where did you live that there were no white Catholics? 

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17 hours ago, Macanudo said:

I think a lot of people overlook how red parts of Virginia are outside of the D.C. suburbs.   Go down to Roanoke or Blacksburg and I bet there are still a shit ton of Trump flags still flying.   I have family in Chesapeake (Virginia Beach/Norfolk area.)   The t-shirts shops along the boardwalk in Virginia Beach STILL sell stuff with Confederate (Battle) flag on it.   

Some of those folks probably sat 2020 out but the school issues of the past 18 months are going to bring them back.   I hope I'm wrong and McAullife wins but I will not be surprised if he loses.

This is pretty close.  Roanoke (city) is overall pretty solid blue, but surrounding counties get Trumpier the further into the sticks you go.  Some of the displays are amazing and borderline insane.

I suspect polling is difficult because it ultimately depends not on sentiment/preference but on who is motivated enough to get their vote in.    

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21 hours ago, Bevo in VA said:

Youngkin has run a pretty smart campaign - staying away form Trumpy issues

his supporters pledging allegiance to a Jan 6 flag at his rally is ‚Äústaying away from Trumpy issues‚ÄĚ? Between that bullshit and his lack of support for vaccine mandates, I don‚Äôt think ads in a grocery store talking about lower taxes is going to get it done.¬†

Edited by Pig Bellmont
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20 hours ago, David Dennison said:

The fact that Terry McAuliffe is the the best Democrats can do in Virginia tells you all you need to know about the current state of the party.

Sad.

His first term he benefited from running against Ken Cucinelli and the GOP governor was just caught up in a scandal about illegal gifts. VA doesn’t allow consecutive terms, but McAuliffe has a record to run on now 

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11 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

his supporters pledging allegiance to a Jan 6 flag at his rally is ‚Äústaying away from Trumpy issues‚ÄĚ? Between that bullshit and his lack of support for vaccine mandates, I don‚Äôt think ads in a grocery store talking about lower taxes is going to get it done.¬†

He also ‚Äúloves everyone‚ÄĚ but gay marriage is a thing too far for him. ¬†He‚Äôs also tried to have it both ways on accepting the results of the 2020 election.¬†

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23 hours ago, Bevo in VA said:

It's going to be close and I'm not going to be surprised if Youngkin pulls it out.  There's just a different vibe out there this year.  Lots of people up here in the suburbs (where Dems have been dominant of late) are still pretty angry and fired up over how the school districts have handled Covid over the last couple of years. Add in some proposed  watering down of curriculums that was being pushed earlier this year, it's just not a good situation.  I think there are going to be a good number of voters in NoVa that are upset enough with the almost entirely Dem school boards that they will take it out on McAullife.

Youngkin has run a pretty smart campaign - staying away form Trumpy issues and focusing mainly on schools.  Little bit of crime thrown in along with eliminating the grocery tax.  McAullife really fucked up at one of the debates where he said that parents shouldn't be allowed to tell schools what to teach.  This soundbite has been all over the airwaves since and is unfortunately very effective - voters just don't get the nuance of what he was trying to say.

 

 

Dumbest sound bite ever--invites questions.  First, do you think they're going to let minority kids and other ethic parents have a say in education for their children?  Fuck no.  Second, parents do have a say in their child's education, it's called homeschool.  Third, they've never had a say in their children's education--the school doesn't even have a say in it.  When things are going smoothly, nobody attends school board meetings--but money is now pouring in to support parents to protest covid requirements.  Youngkin took a line and tried to use it to make himself look compassionate, like he gives a shit.  He doesn't, and he never states where the money will come from for police at schools, eliminating grocery tax and let's face it, more government in schools--because it won't stop with just relaxing mask mandates.  It was the same thing that broke VA to Dems to begin with--Republicans ran up deficits because it's what they do.  It's all over the airwaves because money--that's how advertising works.  Money pours in from out of state to air commercials constantly--but the money didn't come from VA residents and concerned parents.  Obama undressed this fool Youngkin the other day campaigning for McAullife.  Youngkin has spent this campaign trying to distance himself from his prior Trump support--he's an asshole.  It goes with the territory.  

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4 hours ago, grazinhorn said:

This is pretty close.  Roanoke (city) is overall pretty solid blue, but surrounding counties get Trumpier the further into the sticks you go.  Some of the displays are amazing and borderline insane.

I suspect polling is difficult because it ultimately depends not on sentiment/preference but on who is motivated enough to get their vote in.    

The Northern part carries the whole state--it's why the rest of the state threatens to secede to WVA, like Maryland. They don't understand how Democracy is supposed to work--favors the majority.  Fuck-em.  There's plenty of Southern states for them to move to where they can suppress the will of the majority.  

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11 hours ago, Xian said:

That’s insane to me. On multiple levels.
 

just curious, where did you live that there were no white Catholics? 

Central Texas. A little more than an hour north of Austin. When I brought my Jersey Girl Catholic fiancée back home, there was a long discussion among the town biddies as to the last time there had been a Catholic in town. Baptist, Methodist, Church-of-Christ or Hellbound were the only options. 

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2 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

The Northern part carries the whole state--it's why the rest of the state threatens to secede to WVA, like Maryland. They don't understand how Democracy is supposed to work--favors the majority.  Fuck-em.  There's plenty of Southern states for them to move to where they can suppress the will of the majority.  

NOVA + Richmond + Hampton Roads are the higher turnout CDs so far in early voting - VA-10 surpassed 100,000 yesterday.   The 2 districts furthest west that border WV and Kentucky are 2 of the 3 lowest turnout CDs so far.   

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