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1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

 

Anyway, this isn't to poo-poo weaknesses in infrastructure in the US or elsewhere. I'm just wondering if part of what we are seeing as major epicenters for this aren't also not coincidentally places with unique amplifiers to the location making it a bigger deal there than it might be elsewhere. Is the argument that places like the US have their own unique bullshit that will make things worse than they should be? If so, what is it/are they?

I've been thinking about this as well and we should have a good answer over the next few weeks as we see how rapidly this is spreading (assuming testing is up and running at the levels we've been told it will be).  The fact that South Korea seems to have passed peak daily infection rate is encouraging but I don't see any way the US can possibly replicate what they have done from either a testing standpoint or collective will of the people to stop the spread.   Jim Bob from Mizzou aint gonna miss his father daughter dance coroneyvirus be damned.  I have a feeling US idiocracy will continue to be on full display so from that perspective we have our own unique amplifiers.

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6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

So one of the things I don't really see discussed much on this thread that seems relevant is specific issues for different locales that aren't as germane for other groups of countries, and that impact. I'm not talking about "China is authoritarian" or "Iran is an Islamic state" or "Italy is the Mexico of Europe". I mean more along the lines of this:

-China is a smoker's haven with a terrible local air environment (I am peanut-buttering Wuhan into the stereotype here, but I've never heard of any place in China being a stand alone clean location during their industrial rise)

-Is there a situation of large scale malnourishment in China as well? I don't know.

-Iran is a smoker's haven for men. Hospital beds per 1000 people is .1 (for comparison, US is 2.9, China 3.8) and the .1 is skewed by higher density of beds in Tehran.

-Italy is also an extremely heavy-smoking population. They also kiss anyone and everyone they greet socially on each cheek with their lips, or brush the cheeks if not with the lips. That's not a stereotype, that's actually a thing. This has to be a big component for spread, right? It's also an extremely old population, with 22% of the population being over the age of 65. Honestly, Italy seems like a perfect storm for outbreak for something like this. Hell, most of the world beyond a few first world countries still has a smoking problem. It's not like it doesn't exist in the US, but traveling abroad highlights an imbalance that is supported by facts from WHO. 

Anyway, this isn't to poo-poo weaknesses in infrastructure in the US or elsewhere. I'm just wondering if part of what we are seeing as major epicenters for this aren't also not coincidentally places with unique amplifiers to the location making it a bigger deal there than it might be elsewhere. Is the argument that places like the US have their own unique bullshit that will make things worse than they should be? If so, what is it/are they?

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Looks like SXSW might not return for 2021 either, because insurance isn't going to foot the corporate bills:

https://www.darkhorizons.com/sxsw-may-not-return-in-2021-due-to-costs/

 

Text below:
 

Quote

One of the biggest public events to be cancelled so far due to concern over the coronavirus was the scrapping of the South by Southwest festival which was supposed to begin March 13th.

The festival’s chief executive Roland Swenson tells The Wall Street Journal that the cancellation of SXSW by the city of Austin could end up costing festival organizers tens of millions of dollars due to insurance not covering disease-related cancellations.

As a result, he tells the paper that having to swallow that cost could make it extremely difficult for SXSW to return in 2021: “I am most worried about my people and what this means for their future, and I don’t know what that is yet. We are planning to carry on and do another event in 2021, but how we’re going to do that I’m not entirely sure.”

Right now, festival organizers are figuring out all the logistics that come with cancelling the event – from returning supplies to cancelling travel for guests, and the many contracts the festival signed with sponsors, vendors, venues, artists, and more.

Swenson says they should know if there’s a possibility of rescheduling the event for later this year within the next few weeks.

That would be a big, big deal for Austin in general in dozens of different ways. 

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I think the prevalence of smokers (especially in the kill zone, 50 or older) significantly affects the fatality rate of the virus.  But there are other effects, like minor mutations between different strains of the virus, that could also explain the wide variance in severity.  If Italy was infected with a particularly deadly version of the virus, it would only amplify the necessity to contain it there before it spreads.  Coronaviruses are known for their rapid mutation rate as they spread, which is one of the reasons it will be very very difficult to create a universal immunization (and why we don't already have immunizations for the common cold, which is comprised 4 separate strains of coronaviruses).

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So one of the things I don't really see discussed much on this thread that seems relevant is specific issues for different locales that aren't as germane for other groups of countries, and that impact. I'm not talking about "China is authoritarian" or "Iran is an Islamic state" or "Italy is the Mexico of Europe". I mean more along the lines of this:
-China is a smoker's haven with a terrible local air environment (I am peanut-buttering Wuhan into the stereotype here, but I've never heard of any place in China being a stand alone clean location during their industrial rise)
-Is there a situation of large scale malnourishment in China as well? I don't know.
-Iran is a smoker's haven for men. Hospital beds per 1000 people is .1 (for comparison, US is 2.9, China 3.8) and the .1 is skewed by higher density of beds in Tehran.
-Italy is also an extremely heavy-smoking population. They also kiss anyone and everyone they greet socially on each cheek with their lips, or brush the cheeks if not with the lips. That's not a stereotype, that's actually a thing. This has to be a big component for spread, right? It's also an extremely old population, with 22% of the population being over the age of 65. Honestly, Italy seems like a perfect storm for outbreak for something like this. Hell, most of the world beyond a few first world countries still has a smoking problem. It's not like it doesn't exist in the US, but traveling abroad highlights an imbalance that is supported by facts from WHO. 
Anyway, this isn't to poo-poo weaknesses in infrastructure in the US or elsewhere. I'm just wondering if part of what we are seeing as major epicenters for this aren't also not coincidentally places with unique amplifiers to the location making it a bigger deal there than it might be elsewhere. Is the argument that places like the US have their own unique bullshit that will make things worse than they should be? If so, what is it/are they?
Well going by that logic, Austin's southern area is in big trouble.

Because of South Austin's mom.
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1 hour ago, Grade of D as in David said:

And Italy can't catch a break. 1797 new cases and 97 new dead. Hopefully the quarantine works and wee see these numbers start dropping in a week or so.

Although prisoners on the loose should help keep people in their homes.

Those numbers are insane for Italy

”The total number of cases in Italy, the European country hardest hit by the virus in Europe, rose 24% to 9,172, the largest daily increase in terms of absolute numbers since the contagion first came to light on Feb. 21.”

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1 hour ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

Sometime this week as mass production of non-flawed tests are already underway.  I believe they've already changed the guidance on this matter.

US Surgeon General said 75,000 were available yesterday, 2 million today, 4 million by end of this week.    I’m not believing those numbers.  

On a side note, CDC quietly added number of tests back to their site after a lot of pressure.   Our CDC has tested 1,700 people.  

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16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

So one of the things I don't really see discussed much on this thread that seems relevant is specific issues for different locales that aren't as germane for other groups of countries, and that impact. I'm not talking about "China is authoritarian" or "Iran is an Islamic state" or "Italy is the Mexico of Europe". I mean more along the lines of this:

-China is a smoker's haven with a terrible local air environment (I am peanut-buttering Wuhan into the stereotype here, but I've never heard of any place in China being a stand alone clean location during their industrial rise)

-Is there a situation of large scale malnourishment in China as well? I don't know.

-Iran is a smoker's haven for men. Hospital beds per 1000 people is .1 (for comparison, US is 2.9, China 3.8) and the .1 is skewed by higher density of beds in Tehran.

-Italy is also an extremely heavy-smoking population. They also kiss anyone and everyone they greet socially on each cheek with their lips, or brush the cheeks if not with the lips. That's not a stereotype, that's actually a thing. This has to be a big component for spread, right? It's also an extremely old population, with 22% of the population being over the age of 65. Honestly, Italy seems like a perfect storm for outbreak for something like this. Hell, most of the world beyond a few first world countries still has a smoking problem. It's not like it doesn't exist in the US, but traveling abroad highlights an imbalance that is supported by facts from WHO. 

Anyway, this isn't to poo-poo weaknesses in infrastructure in the US or elsewhere. I'm just wondering if part of what we are seeing as major epicenters for this aren't also not coincidentally places with unique amplifiers to the location making it a bigger deal there than it might be elsewhere. Is the argument that places like the US have their own unique bullshit that will make things worse than they should be? If so, what is it/are they?

Keep in mind, China has the authority and did lock their population the fuck down to the effect of completely ducking over global supply chain and their own evening.  We cant do that and a large part of our population simply won't do that because American.  We don't go to the doctor.  We don't wash or hands.  Can't even get people to cover their nose and mouth when sneezing and coughing   I feel like we are not seeing our own assess here. We are like the perfect population to spread something like this.   

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35 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

I'd be really interested in seeing the national figures for deaths attributed to pneumonia, flu, cold, and respiratory illness in February and March compared to December and January. 

 

The WA state Lifecare facility or whatever had something like a dozen deaths going back to February, when they normally have around half that.   They haven’t tested them.  

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My MIL & FIL are supposed to fly to Barcelona and embark on a 2 week Mediterranean cruise (many stops in and around Italy) in late May.  They bought travel insurance for the flights and cruise.  Looks like this sort of event is not covered (surprise surprise), so they're kind of in limbo as to what to do.  They're both in their mid/late 60's, and he's already had open heart surgery, so his general health is not the best.

I think right now the best thing they can do is sit tight and wait for the airlines/cruises to find a solution.  Hopefully they drop their transfer fees and allow passengers to reschedule when it become apparent that this type of cruise can't happen.

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Sigh.  I haven't raised it to her, and won't anytime soon, because she can get pretty anxious, but I've got a kiddo in college in Canada.  She's supposed to come home late April.  Looking at likely timelines and talking to some folks with a bit of inside knowledge, we may well be looking at extensive foreign travel bans at that time.  I'm beginning to wonder if we'll have a hard time repatriating her, and if so, what our contingency plans should be (maybe the university will keep a dorm open for stranded students?  Maybe she can stay with one of her local friends, although they aren't in her city -- they are in surrounding provinces), or shit, maybe we spend money and put her up in a hotel for a period.

Just one more thing to worry about.

Buckle up, folks.  There are going to be a lot more tough questions like that one coming our way.

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This seems really ok.

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The head of the Florida Health Department’s Broward County office faced more criticism Monday for failing to provide information on what may become the state’s biggest health crisis in a generation.

Members of Congress and local officials pressed Dr. Paula Thaqi, the office’s director, for information on the number of coronavirus test kits available and how the three infected people in the county contracted the disease. They said they were frustrated at a series of what they considered to be non-answers.

“Every other community that has had these cases has been able to provide information whether there was community spread or international travel or contact,” U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Weston, said at a forum at Nova Southeastern University in Davie.

“You should have some sense of how long it takes to get to the bottom of the source of how this was contracted,” Wasserman told Thaqi. “We can’t be the only county in the country that can’t provide that information. Epidemological studies have a time frame. What is the time frame? Has someone forbidden you from answering? Why come to the roundtable if you’re not going to be forthcoming?”

“What I can say is that two of these cases are associated with Port Everglades," she said. “The Florida Department of Health in Broward County has been working 24/7 throughout the weekend to work closely with these patients, identify potential close contacts and work to isolate and monitor any persons with COVID-19.”

Thaqi said there is not a history of international travel in any of the three case in Broward County. For the third case, she said the health department is re-interviewing the patient to make the determination of how he was exposed, tracing that person’s contact. She said there’s was no indication that any had contact with a cruise passenger, but it could be possible. All three of the Broward County cases are older males.

Wasserman Schultz pressed about when we could get answers to how these three people became infected and eventually asked Thaqi to report those answers to her by end of day.

Peg Buchan, assistant director of Port Everglades, said the port has not been given information on the two cases. “We need to find out who these people are. They are not telling us. The port is a business like any other and there is no communication.”

Thaqi also couldn’t answer questions from U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Boca Raton, on the number of test kits available, a sore point since a shortage of test kits had held back the number of people who could be screened for the illness.

“Tests are performed at the Department of Health public laboratories, questions need to be directed to the Florida Department of Health,” Thaqi said. “I don’t have information about the number of test kits available. I can tell you everyone that is indicated to be tested is tested.”


Deutch responded, “We all want to know if there is an outbreak that people can be tested. I know tests are available at three state labs. It’s hard for us to be told the public health official for Broward county has no idea how many kits are in Florida.”

Thaqi said Broward County has as many swabs as it needs to collect specimens. “The test kits are what the laboratories use to analyze the specimens. I am the health director for Broward county, each county has a director. I do not have information about how many test kits are available at Florida Department of Health laboratories.

The lack of information followed a similar reluctance at a news conference Saturday, when Thaqi would not say how many testing kits were available, how long it could take to get test results and whether the two Broward cases known at the time had been hospitalized or quarantined or had recently traveled abroad, a question she answered Monday.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

US Surgeon General said 75,000 were available yesterday, 2 million today, 4 million by end of this week.    I’m not believing those numbers.  

On a side note, CDC quietly added number of tests back to their site after a lot of pressure.   Our CDC has tested 1,700 people.  

Who is producing 4-million units of anything in a week?

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

US Surgeon General said 75,000 were available yesterday, 2 million today, 4 million by end of this week.    I’m not believing those numbers.  

On a side note, CDC quietly added number of tests back to their site after a lot of pressure.   Our CDC has tested 1,700 people.  

I found this twitter handle tracking US Covid Testing Capacity:  @Covid2019Tests

Their current estimate is the US can handle 7,840 tests per day.  So 4 Million tests aren't going to help much if we can't figure out a way to ramp up testing capacity.   Of course, considering we've only tested a fraction of that purported daily max amount, I guess getting to capacity should be step 1.  Should be interesting to follow. 

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sigh.  I haven't raised it to her, and won't anytime soon, because she can get pretty anxious, but I've got a kiddo in college in Canada.  She's supposed to come home late April.  Looking at likely timelines and talking to some folks with a bit of inside knowledge, we may well be looking at extensive foreign travel bans at that time.  I'm beginning to wonder if we'll have a hard time repatriating her, and if so, what our contingency plans should be (maybe the university will keep a dorm open for stranded students?  Maybe she can stay with one of her local friends, although they aren't in her city -- they are in surrounding provinces), or shit, maybe we spend money and put her up in a hotel for a period.

Just one more thing to worry about.

Buckle up, folks.  There are going to be a lot more tough questions like that one coming our way.

Book a studio apartment on VRBO for her just in case. Get one you can cancel.  Rates are probably cheap AF right now.

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21 minutes ago, rantanamo said:

Keep in mind, China has the authority and did lock their population the fuck down to the effect of completely ducking over global supply chain and their own evening.  We cant do that and a large part of our population simply won't do that because American.  We don't go to the doctor.  We don't wash or hands.  Can't even get people to cover their nose and mouth when sneezing and coughing   I feel like we are not seeing our own assess here. We are like the perfect population to spread something like this.   

On the other hand American culture has a very big aversion to physical contact with other people that European cultures just don't have. I mean where the country that invented the "dap". That could serve to help quite a bit that we don't naturally kiss and hug each other the way a lot of other cultures do. That said if we decide that because we're American we are immune and we just keep rolling on with large gatherings and school then it won't matter. 

Stores are pretty much sold out of disinfectant wipes so as long as he's rubes actually use the fucking things correctly that could also b a good sign. Glad I bought those 2,000 shares of CLX the other day, lulz

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sigh.  I haven't raised it to her, and won't anytime soon, because she can get pretty anxious, but I've got a kiddo in college in Canada.  She's supposed to come home late April.  Looking at likely timelines and talking to some folks with a bit of inside knowledge, we may well be looking at extensive foreign travel bans at that time.  I'm beginning to wonder if we'll have a hard time repatriating her, and if so, what our contingency plans should be (maybe the university will keep a dorm open for stranded students?  Maybe she can stay with one of her local friends, although they aren't in her city -- they are in surrounding provinces), or shit, maybe we spend money and put her up in a hotel for a period.

Just one more thing to worry about.

Buckle up, folks.  There are going to be a lot more tough questions like that one coming our way.

Don't overthink this. It's the Canadian border. She could always just walk across. 

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14 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Who is producing 4-million units of anything in a week?

I think they are conflating test kits with number of tests that can be performed.  A single test kit is capable of handling 2000 tests, of which 1500 would be used on actual patients, which requires two tests to confirm, so 750 patients.  The other 500 are used for test setup and validation.  

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2 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

I can't imagine the legal battle that would ensue if our government tried to prevent US citizens from returning to USA, pandemic or not.

I’m not rooting for this at all, but brisket vs. the USA courtroom battle over banning his daughter from returning home would be must see tv.  

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25 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

My MIL & FIL are supposed to fly to Barcelona and embark on a 2 week Mediterranean cruise (many stops in and around Italy) in late May.  They bought travel insurance for the flights and cruise.  Looks like this sort of event is not covered (surprise surprise), so they're kind of in limbo as to what to do.  They're both in their mid/late 60's, and he's already had open heart surgery, so his general health is not the best.

I think right now the best thing they can do is sit tight and wait for the airlines/cruises to find a solution.  Hopefully they drop their transfer fees and allow passengers to reschedule when it become apparent that this type of cruise can't happen.

Trip insurance doesn't cover this? Fuck that, I'd find another reason to trigger the policy and get my money back. Ain't waiting around for them to possibly waive transfer fees.

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2 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

I’m not rooting for this at all, but brisket vs. the USA courtroom battle over banning his daughter from returning home would be must see tv.  

It'd be cheaper to just rent her a flat in Montreal for a month and tell her to lay low.  She's capable of doing that.

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25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Buckle up, folks.  There are going to be a lot more tough questions like that one coming our way.

yeah...like are my Sturgill Simpson tickets for 3/28 still good?? 🤣😐

(kinda hoping they just cancel...i paid too much, and from what i've read he's pretty cranky about having to do this tour anyway.)

 

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It'd be cheaper to just rent her a flat in Montreal for a month and tell her to lay low.  She's capable of doing that.

If you're worried about travel bans, it seems that bringing her home now and arranging for some sort of online continuation of courses might handle more contingencies.  What if, heaven forbid, an elderly relative passes?  Is she the type that would have big regrets about not attending?  What if you got hospitalized?  And contrary to the meme, there are younger people getting hospitalized with CV, the percentages are just significantly lower.

Things to perhaps consider.

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26 minutes ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

I can't imagine the legal battle that would ensue if our government tried to prevent US citizens from returning to USA, pandemic or not.

If we did something like that, I'd bet we'd follow Israel's lead in how they're handling it.

Quote

 

Israel says anyone entering the country must self-quarantine for 14 days
From CNN’s Oren Liebermann

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that anyone entering the country from abroad  —Israeli citizens and foreign nationals alike — must self-quarantine for 14 days. 

Those foreign nationals who are unable to demonstrate to Israeli border authorities that they will be able to self-quarantine for two weeks will not be allowed to enter the country.

“This is a difficult decision, but it is necessary to protect public health — and the public health comes before everything,” Netanyahu said in a video statement on Monday. 
“This decision will be in effect for two weeks; at the same time, we are making decisions in order to protect the economy of Israel,” he added. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

If you're worried about travel bans, it seems that bringing her home now and arranging for some sort of online continuation of courses might handle more contingencies.  What if, heaven forbid, an elderly relative passes?  Is she the type that would have big regrets about not attending?  What if you got hospitalized?  And contrary to the meme, there are younger people getting hospitalized with CV, the percentages are just significantly lower.

Things to perhaps consider.

Naaah.  Seriously, in balance, her finishing out her freshman year of college as-is is pretty important.

If one of her grandparents (my parents) passes away -- and to be clear, they are definitely a vulnerable population -- then it is almost certain the memorial won't be until the danger has passed.  And we already discussed this risk some time ago -- she's far away, and something like this might happen relatively quickly in any case, and she couldn't get back for it.

As for her mom or me getting sick....we're damned well trying to avoid it.  As for her getting sick and requiring help, she's got a strong network there who can make sure she gets immediate care....and if I have to drive 25 hours straight and pay a smuggler to get me over the border to get to her, I damned well can and will.

While we all have to take appropriate precautions, absolute worst-case scenario pre-emptive actions may well cause worse harm than the situation itself.

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My employer is trying to come up with a plan of action for continuing teaching and research efforts if we need to stay home. This is going to mess up research timelines if you're relying on human data; I really don't see how it's going to work out well.

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