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Kyler Murray - The Savior or Satan of OU Football


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49 minutes ago, ztejas said:

There was this guy that played at Texas a few years back that was lightning quick that had some pretty questionable ball security at times. He wasn't straight line as fast as Murray or Vick but was better at switching directions and changing lanes.

 

Shit, his name is escaping me. Someone help me out here. 

I got you. That was Case McCoy. 

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3 hours ago, ztejas said:

You laid it on a little too thick. Not disagreeing that when their D has struggled it has been because of dynamic passing attacks - but acting like the only teams they have crushed over the past decade have been "antiquated SEC offenses" is a little ridiculous. 

But my point is, Bama's defense is not impossible to beat. This is the usual narrative when these teams have to face them. "Oh Bama's defense is going to destroy them". Hell Georgia was moving it very well at times. And they Georgia'd the game as usual. That goes back to 2012. Is Bama's defense good? Sure. But to discount the SEC offense factor can not be ignored. They have a hard time against spread offenses. Most of the SEC defenses do. OU was butt raping Georgia last year for a lot of that game. I don't care how good your defense is, stopping the spread from teams who run it very well with talent is extremely hard to stop. OU is one of those teams this year. Bama should win this game by a few scores but it will be because OU's defense is one of the worst in the league. It won't be because OU's offense was completely shut down.

OU's defense is going to the one who will be dominated in this game. Bama's offense should have a field day.

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12 hours ago, ztejas said:

Well... I mean, he's about to win the Heisman, so...

So? Owning a Heisman trophy isn't going to help him learn how to hit curveballs, which will pretty much decide whether he makes $4 million in baseball (his bonus) or tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in baseball. 

Every year in baseball is important. He's a guy that hasn't ever really devoted himself to the sport and was still the 12th overall pick last summer. He's lost another year playing football in 2018. Baseball doesn't give a shit how well he played college football. And he's not out of the woods yet as far as injuries go. 

He'll start his professional baseball career presumably next spring/summer, likely in low-A ball. He turns 22 in August, and he won't enter pro ball as developed as most college guys, which means he'll already be behind the age curve. If everything clicks, he's looking at reaching the big leagues at 24 at the earliest. More likely 25. 

None of this is catastrophic for him - he could still be a successful MLB player; my point is that playing football was a bad idea, regardless of awards or honors for his play, because his future is baseball and he has pushed his timeline back a year while risking injury that could directly impact his baseball future. 

But the guys that really get paid are those who hit free agency at a younger age (like Harper and Machado this year). Thus, each year you delay, you lose money. 

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9 hours ago, Bevo VIII said:

Kyler is the best Texas high school football qurterback ever.


He’s not in a debate for best college an ever like Vince is.


Vince Young took a shithole team with no talent to the state finals in 5A, the largest division at the time, through the transcendance of his play alone. I watched him do it in 10 of those games. He was great a sophomore with no coaching, elite as a junior with no coaching, and the greatest HS football player I've ever seen after some off-season circuit coaching. Kyler Murray might have been awesome as a HS QB, but he was also part of a well-oiled machine and has been coached up since he could walk.

People who talk about anyone but Vince Young as the greatest HS football player they ever saw - never watched VY play high school ball. Sorry. I think some of you hyping anyone else do not have even a vague understanding of the absurdity of someone taking Madison to the state finals at the highest level. They had like 6 coaches on their sidelines and less than 30 players on their roster before JV playoff call-ups. They've done nothing before or since and likely never will.

4 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

So? Owning a Heisman trophy isn't going to help him learn how to hit curveballs, which will pretty much decide whether he makes $4 million in baseball (his bonus) or tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in baseball. 

Every year in baseball is important. He's a guy that hasn't ever really devoted himself to the sport and was still the 12th overall pick last summer. He's lost another year playing football in 2018. Baseball doesn't give a shit how well he played college football. And he's not out of the woods yet as far as injuries go. 

He'll start his professional baseball career presumably next spring/summer, likely in low-A ball. He turns 22 in August, and he won't enter pro ball as developed as most college guys, which means he'll already be behind the age curve. If everything clicks, he's looking at reaching the big leagues at 24 at the earliest. More likely 25. 

None of this is catastrophic for him - he could still be a successful MLB player; my point is that playing football was a bad idea, regardless of awards or honors for his play, because his future is baseball and he has pushed his timeline back a year while risking injury that could directly impact his baseball future. 

But the guys that really get paid are those who hit free agency at a younger age (like Harper and Machado this year). Thus, each year you delay, you lose money. 

This post nails it. Murray was clearly the savior of the 2019 season for OU, but that means dick for his baseball career and likely impaired his trajectory in a non-linear manner.

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14 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

So? Owning a Heisman trophy isn't going to help him learn how to hit curveballs, which will pretty much decide whether he makes $4 million in baseball (his bonus) or tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in baseball. 

Every year in baseball is important. He's a guy that hasn't ever really devoted himself to the sport and was still the 12th overall pick last summer. He's lost another year playing football in 2018. Baseball doesn't give a shit how well he played college football. And he's not out of the woods yet as far as injuries go. 

He'll start his professional baseball career presumably next spring/summer, likely in low-A ball. He turns 22 in August, and he won't enter pro ball as developed as most college guys, which means he'll already be behind the age curve. If everything clicks, he's looking at reaching the big leagues at 24 at the earliest. More likely 25. 

None of this is catastrophic for him - he could still be a successful MLB player; my point is that playing football was a bad idea, regardless of awards or honors for his play, because his future is baseball and he has pushed his timeline back a year while risking injury that could directly impact his baseball future. 

But the guys that really get paid are those who hit free agency at a younger age (like Harper and Machado this year). Thus, each year you delay, you lose money. 

I am pretty sure he is getting his $4 million dollar bonus by just reporting to the A's.

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1 minute ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I am pretty sure he is getting his $4 million dollar bonus by just reporting to the A's.

He is; and then he'll get shit for salary until he is in the big leagues. And even in the big leagues, he'll be on his rookie contract for several years.

That's the point - he could make a shitload of money playing baseball, but the way the economics of the game are structured, guys who are good and young get those huge extensions or contracts while guys whose rookie contracts expire as they're exiting their prime do not. Thus, there is a cost to entering free agency at age 30 rather than 29, for example. 

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

So? Owning a Heisman trophy isn't going to help him learn how to hit curveballs, which will pretty much decide whether he makes $4 million in baseball (his bonus) or tens (or hundreds) of millions of dollars in baseball. 

Every year in baseball is important. He's a guy that hasn't ever really devoted himself to the sport and was still the 12th overall pick last summer. He's lost another year playing football in 2018. Baseball doesn't give a shit how well he played college football. And he's not out of the woods yet as far as injuries go. 

He'll start his professional baseball career presumably next spring/summer, likely in low-A ball. He turns 22 in August, and he won't enter pro ball as developed as most college guys, which means he'll already be behind the age curve. If everything clicks, he's looking at reaching the big leagues at 24 at the earliest. More likely 25. 

None of this is catastrophic for him - he could still be a successful MLB player; my point is that playing football was a bad idea, regardless of awards or honors for his play, because his future is baseball and he has pushed his timeline back a year while risking injury that could directly impact his baseball future. 

But the guys that really get paid are those who hit free agency at a younger age (like Harper and Machado this year). Thus, each year you delay, you lose money. 

You can't buy a Heisman. Maybe you don't see the instrinsic value in an award like that but it isn't about money.

He'll either be a great baseball player or he won't. A year of spring training isn't going to change that. Transcendent athletes tend to have little issues switching between sports - especially at such a young age.

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You guys can find the silver lining in anything.  That's why I love this place.  Here I am all depressed that OU has the top player (top 2 at worst) in the country yet again, and is in the playoffs yet again.  But now I can take solace in that maybe Murray hurt his baseball developmental trajectory a little while he was completely dominating college football, and how stupid he is for doing so. 

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5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

You can't buy a Heisman. Maybe you don't see the instrinsic value in an award like that but it isn't about money.

He'll either be a great baseball player or he won't. A year of spring training isn't going to change that. Transcendent athletes tend to have little issues switching between sports - especially at such a young age.

It's a great honor, he deserves it and he should be proud of it (assuming he wins). 

Totally disagree with the second part. He didn't miss "a year of spring training." He missed half a season, plus any fall leagues, of playing pro ball with pro coaches. Which means he delayed his developmental clock. Baseball is not a sport in which athleticism alone determines success; it is skill-based and great athletes fail all the time (see Byron Buxton, Corey Patterson, Jeff Franceour, Bubba Starling, etc - every draft is littered with these guys). The Bo Jacksons and Deion Sanders and Brian Jordans of the world are extraordinarily rare. 

So no - he's not going to become a good major league player by playing football instead of baseball. And he isn't that young anymore by baseball standards. 

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7 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:

You guys can find the silver lining in anything.  That's why I love this place.  Here I am all depressed that OU has the top player (top 2 at worst) in the country yet again, and is in the playoffs yet again.  But now I can take solace in that maybe Murray hurt his baseball developmental trajectory a little while he was completely dominating college football, and how stupid he is for doing so. 

Haha, I'm not trying to shit on the kid. Just saying that, in my opinion, the decision to play football after being draft 12th overall in the MLB draft was dumb...even if it all ends up working out for him, the outcomes don't justify the decision. 

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5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

So no - he's not going to become a good major league player by playing football instead of baseball. And he isn't that young anymore by baseball standards. 

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just saying he made a tradeoff to excel at a high level in football, to have an opportunity that only a few hundred college players have ever had, to take half a step or a step back in his baseball career.

He's clearly skilled if the As took him that early in the draft. Baseball franchises don't draft for athleticism.

However - he is an absolute freak. He is built more for baseball than football.

Maybe he wont make as much money, but I would be surprised if he doesn't turn out to be a really, really good baseball player. He has every tool needed to be a phenom.

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3 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Dude is good. Dgaf what else he does, he’ll always have that burnt orange blemish on his record. It will bother his bitch ass forever.

Meh.  Maybe if he didn’t win the rematch in the more important game.  He’s gonna make 50M+.  I highly doubt that loss will even cross his mind.  

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25 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Meh.  Maybe if he didn’t win the rematch in the more important game.  He’s gonna make 50M+.  I highly doubt that loss will even cross his mind.  

The odds are far higher of him flaming out before reaching the majors than they are of him getting to the majors. Then he'd have to stick in the majors, which are long odds for a guy in low-A ball, even if a 1st round pick. Then he'd have to excel and be worth an offer after his arbitration period, and then he'd have to be highly valued. If all of that happens, then he'd get a multi-year offer from someone for $40+million, which is what your post presumes. 

From reading this thread again, it's pretty fucking clear a lot of folks don't have a clue how contracts and careers progress in baseball. Unless this dude is Pete Incaviglia, he's not jumping to MLB in 2019. If he kicks maximum ass, he'll progress through levels at .75 years per level. That's crushing it in the minors. That projects him to the majors at the age of 25. Then he's got 5 or 6 years under the rookie agreement including arbitration. He's likely to be 30-32 when he faces his first free agent agreement. This isn't the 1990's or 2000's in which analytics and age progression played virtually no role in the offering of contracts. Toolsy free agents dependent upon speed in their early 30's get 4 years at $48-$60million if they're excellent. More if they're truly elite. A whole lot less for the vast majority of the rest of the players. 

The guy has defied odds already, so he certainly could get to the top, but presuming that is silly. His baseball feats are far less storied than his football feats. He's a projectable, toolsy guy. There are 10 of those taken in the 1st round every year and 1 out of 10,000 ever become Mike Trout or Ken Griffey jr, and 1 out of every 1000 become Nick Markakis or Josh Reddick.

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The odds are far higher of him flaming out before reaching the majors than they are of him getting to the majors. Then he'd have to stick in the majors, which are long odds for a guy in low-A ball, even if a 1st round pick. Then he'd have to excel and be worth an offer after his arbitration period, and then he'd have to be highly valued. If all of that happens, then he'd get a multi-year offer from someone for $40+million, which is what your post presumes. 

From reading this thread again, it's pretty fucking clear a lot of folks don't have a clue how contracts and careers progress in baseball. Unless this dude is Pete Incaviglia, he's not jumping to MLB in 2019. If he kicks maximum ass, he'll progress through levels at .75 years per level. That's crushing it in the minors. That projects him to the majors at the age of 25. Then he's got 5 or 6 years under the rookie agreement including arbitration. He's likely to be 30-32 when he faces his first free agent agreement. This isn't the 1990's or 2000's in which analytics and age progression played virtually no role in the offering of contracts. Toolsy free agents dependent upon speed in their early 30's get 4 years at $48-$60million if they're excellent. More if they're truly elite. A whole lot less for the vast majority of the rest of the players. 

The guy has defied odds already, so he certainly could get to the top, but presuming that is silly. His baseball feats are far less storied than his football feats. He's a projectable, toolsy guy. There are 10 of those taken in the 1st round every year and 1 out of 10,000 ever become Mike Trout or Ken Griffey jr, and 1 out of every 1000 become Nick Markakis or Josh Reddick.

This is correct.  It's why baseball contracts are so horrible and one sided towards the player.  The player gets screwed on the rookie deal and makes it up at the first free agent contract.  Kyler could more money earlier going with football.  However, assuming he makes it to the majors and is elite, that's a much bigger payout and he doesn't have his brain scrambled the rest of his life.  That's a big assumption, though, and why him staying would surprise me but not stun me.

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

It's a great honor, he deserves it and he should be proud of it (assuming he wins). 

Totally disagree with the second part. He didn't miss "a year of spring training." He missed half a season, plus any fall leagues, of playing pro ball with pro coaches. Which means he delayed his developmental clock. Baseball is not a sport in which athleticism alone determines success; it is skill-based and great athletes fail all the time (see Byron Buxton, Corey Patterson, Jeff Franceour, Bubba Starling, etc - every draft is littered with these guys). The Bo Jacksons and Deion Sanders and Brian Jordans of the world are extraordinarily rare. 

So no - he's not going to become a good major league player by playing football instead of baseball. And he isn't that young anymore by baseball standards. 

Bubba Starling is very possibly why he chose to play football. That guy did everything possible to commit to baseball, and it still doesn’t look like it’s going to work.

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26 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The odds are far higher of him flaming out before reaching the majors than they are of him getting to the majors. Then he'd have to stick in the majors, which are long odds for a guy in low-A ball, even if a 1st round pick. Then he'd have to excel and be worth an offer after his arbitration period, and then he'd have to be highly valued. If all of that happens, then he'd get a multi-year offer from someone for $40+million, which is what your post presumes. 

From reading this thread again, it's pretty fucking clear a lot of folks don't have a clue how contracts and careers progress in baseball. Unless this dude is Pete Incaviglia, he's not jumping to MLB in 2019. If he kicks maximum ass, he'll progress through levels at .75 years per level. That's crushing it in the minors. That projects him to the majors at the age of 25. Then he's got 5 or 6 years under the rookie agreement including arbitration. He's likely to be 30-32 when he faces his first free agent agreement. This isn't the 1990's or 2000's in which analytics and age progression played virtually no role in the offering of contracts. Toolsy free agents dependent upon speed in their early 30's get 4 years at $48-$60million if they're excellent. More if they're truly elite. A whole lot less for the vast majority of the rest of the players. 

The guy has defied odds already, so he certainly could get to the top, but presuming that is silly. His baseball feats are far less storied than his football feats. He's a projectable, toolsy guy. There are 10 of those taken in the 1st round every year and 1 out of 10,000 ever become Mike Trout or Ken Griffey jr, and 1 out of every 1000 become Nick Markakis or Josh Reddick.

Yeah I know well how many flame out even as first rounders.  I just think he can steal some bags, play good D, and bat .260.  That makes a long career for many.  We will see.  

Either way, his regrets would have to do with that flame out and not losing to Texas then getting revenge.  Let’s be real.  

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4 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Yes as much as we want to hate on him the guy is fucking amazing.

I enjoyed watching him play except against Texas.

He will wreak havoc on Bama's D.

Agreed. I watched him all throughout high school and was a big fan. He's a TX HSFB legend. Dude is fucking good. Regardless of if he plays in Norman, he's fun to watch. I think he will do just fine against Bama's defense. They have not played an offense even close to OU's offense this year. 

I don't give a fuck what he does after his football days in baseball. But that is a totally different animal than football. It takes tons of patience and grind to make it up to the big leagues. As opposed to the NFL you are on a pro team and in the spotlight right away, especially at QB these days. You will get more money sooner in the NFL rather than baseball. The potential income is a lot more in MLB and your career is longer but you have to get to that point, which most do not. I am going to assume Murray would play OF with his range and speed? But by most accounts, he is not a power hitter. So not sure what kind of career and earning potential he will have with those tools.

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5 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Dude is good. Dgaf what else he does, he’ll always have that burnt orange blemish on his record. It will bother his bitch ass forever.

He won the rematch in December that vaulted them to Big 12 champs and into the playoffs. So that loss to UT really meant nothing in the end. Maybe they'd be ranked 3 instead of 4 had they beat UT in October? Because Bama and Clemson were always going to be slotted 1 and 2. So they could be playing Clemson in the semis as opposed to Bama. But you are going to have to beat both to win it all this year if you are OU. Doesn't really matter the order at this point.

Now had he lost the rematch, then yes, that would bother him forever.

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47 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The odds are far higher of him flaming out before reaching the majors than they are of him getting to the majors. Then he'd have to stick in the majors, which are long odds for a guy in low-A ball, even if a 1st round pick. Then he'd have to excel and be worth an offer after his arbitration period, and then he'd have to be highly valued. If all of that happens, then he'd get a multi-year offer from someone for $40+million, which is what your post presumes. 

From reading this thread again, it's pretty fucking clear a lot of folks don't have a clue how contracts and careers progress in baseball. Unless this dude is Pete Incaviglia, he's not jumping to MLB in 2019. If he kicks maximum ass, he'll progress through levels at .75 years per level. That's crushing it in the minors. That projects him to the majors at the age of 25. Then he's got 5 or 6 years under the rookie agreement including arbitration. He's likely to be 30-32 when he faces his first free agent agreement. This isn't the 1990's or 2000's in which analytics and age progression played virtually no role in the offering of contracts. Toolsy free agents dependent upon speed in their early 30's get 4 years at $48-$60million if they're excellent. More if they're truly elite. A whole lot less for the vast majority of the rest of the players. 

The guy has defied odds already, so he certainly could get to the top, but presuming that is silly. His baseball feats are far less storied than his football feats. He's a projectable, toolsy guy. There are 10 of those taken in the 1st round every year and 1 out of 10,000 ever become Mike Trout or Ken Griffey jr, and 1 out of every 1000 become Nick Markakis or Josh Reddick.

On the flip side of this take, I think you would see him with a relatively short career as an NFL player. Let's assume he lasts for 7-9 seasons, which is more than double the NFL average. A high first round pick would get a 6 year contract worth about 20-25 million, only part of which is guaranteed. Then let's say he plays good enough to see a second contract as a backup since I don't believe he will last as a starter long term due to his size and the speed of the NFL.  You would conceivably see a second contract in the 10-15 million range over 3-4 years, only about half of which is guaranteed. You would bring his career earnings to 30-40 million unless he is the next Russell Wilson. 

 In baseball, if we assume he hits the majors by age 26 due to his elite speed and defense, he could easily play into his mid to late 30's and see possibly two free agent contracts. Qualifying offers in MLB for one season are over $17 million this year fully guaranteed. I would imagine he would have room to play through two $50 million plus contracts plus his rookie deal and those deals are fully guaranteed. Long term, I think the kid should stick with baseball. 

There were similar arguments being made over Charlie Ward back in the 90's on whether he should go NFL or NBA. Ward lasted 12 seasons in the NBA and far surpassed what he would have made as even an NFL star. 

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

If he kicks maximum ass, he'll progress through levels at .75 years per level. That's crushing it in the minors. That projects him to the majors at the age of 25. Then he's got 5 or 6 years under the rookie agreement including arbitration. He's likely to be 30-32 when he faces his first free agent agreement. This isn't the 1990's or 2000's in which analytics and age progression played virtually no role in the offering of contracts. Toolsy free agents dependent upon speed in their early 30's get 4 years at $48-$60million if they're excellent. More if they're truly elite. A whole lot less for the vast majority of the rest of the players. 

This. It's why spending a year playing football after getting drafted was probably not wise, no matter how well he and his team fared. It's about probability of outcomes - given his stature and each sport's relative risk for career-altering injury, he is more likely to succeed in professional baseball than football. And the money he is likely to earn in baseball, given those two factors and the financial difference between the two sports, far exceeds that of football. As such, every year he delays playing baseball will probably cost him, possibly significantly. 

He is a raw baseball player; he was drafted because of his physical tools. Becoming competent at these pro levels takes time, no matter how talented you are. As it is, he'll be starting in 2019 where he should have been starting in 2018. All of this factors into how MLB teams value players. 

 

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6 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Vince Young took a shithole team with no talent to the state finals in 5A, the largest division at the time, through the transcendance of his play alone. I watched him do it in 10 of those games. He was great a sophomore with no coaching, elite as a junior with no coaching, and the greatest HS football player I've ever seen after some off-season circuit coaching. Kyler Murray might have been awesome as a HS QB, but he was also part of a well-oiled machine and has been coached up since he could walk.

People who talk about anyone but Vince Young as the greatest HS football player they ever saw - never watched VY play high school ball. Sorry. I think some of you hyping anyone else do not have even a vague understanding of the absurdity of someone taking Madison to the state finals at the highest level. They had like 6 coaches on their sidelines and less than 30 players on their roster before JV playoff call-ups. They've done nothing before or since and likely never will.

1.  Semi-finals

2.  What the fuck are you talking about?  Madison was one of the best programs in the Houston area for years before VY showed up.  His soph year, they were coming off 6 consecutive 10-win seasons: http://lonestarfootball.net/team.asp?action=schedule&T=1056&S=1998&GUID=3781049848

Edited by Beau Vine
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Before their senior years, Reggie McNeal was thought of as the No. 1 overall prospect ahead of Young iirc. VY passed him up late because of monster senior year he had; even though McNeal won the 5A title that year, everyone came away from the Madison-Westlake shootout knowing VY was the true real deal.

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24 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

What kind of pathetic loser creates a sock to rep himself?  That can't be said enough.

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/4059-gaelic/

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/4084-maclaren/

Those are lousy sock names.  I want to see 'Individual Juan'....

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3 hours ago, Gaelic said:

This cannot be said enough.  

You understand that we can all see you and mclaren rep 'eachother' on every other post right?  You fucking imbecile.  You're only delaying your eventual banning.  Then you can come back for the 14th time.  #winning

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

1.  Semi-finals

2.  What the fuck are you talking about?  Madison was one of the best programs in the Houston area for years before VY showed up.  His soph year, they were coming off 6 consecutive 10-win seasons: http://lonestarfootball.net/team.asp?action=schedule&T=1056&S=1998&GUID=3781049848

I guess I was assuming they were nothing when watching them with VY and following their nothingness since, so my bad on the before part. You seem pretty angry about the error, but it’s hard for me to offer any more than that over something pretty irrelevant. Semifinals vs finals is memory and time fucking with me, but you get the point. 

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Does anyone really think Murray would hold up over the years in the NFL given his size?

I find it amazing that he’d be considered for a high draft pick simply because he’s tiny. Dude is an awesome althete and fast as hell but so are NFL defenses. One good blind side hit and he a grease stain. Better money and infinitely better chance of longevity (providing he’s good enough to get to the bigs and stay there) with baseball. 

Edited by Lhorn
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15 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

He could be the modern day Ricky Henderson.

I rarely watch baseball let alone college baseball but evidently, that's why the pro scouts compare him to.  He's fast, can hit for power, and is great defensively.  Baseball is a tricky game, though.  

If he's the modern Ricky Henderson, he'd be a food to play baseball.  He has an elite NFL arm and can outrun everybody but he's 180 lbs or something.  One blindside hit by an NFL defensive end while he's scrambling and he's done.  It's not his height, it's his size.

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