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Donald Trump 2018


TheFlyingBoat

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41 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

That fat orange could fight his way out of a wet McDonalds bag.  He is a coward and a pussy. 

I don't know, he has lots of experience fighting with the bag for that last fry that feel underneath the paper flap. 

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12 minutes ago, Agent47 said:

 

How can evangelicals defend this low rent low brow jackaloon.

 

We’re just a little over two years from Trump’s profession of faith. Remember he was a “baby Christian.” It’s striking how similar Paul’s first two years as a Christian align with Trump’s. Remember when Paul called Mary Magdalene a horse face? Or how Trump commonly refers to himself as chief among sinners? Or how when the Lord open the prison doors Paul fled and told the jailer to fend for himself? It’s uncanny how these two giants of the faith are similar. 

 

Edited by Mole
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9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Why do we think that felons break in a impactful way for D's over R's.

Compare the demographics of felons to the trump support demographics.  Layer in education level, SES, and voter turnout rates by all these factors and I am not sure its a world changer. In other words, Florida still gonna Florida.  

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Yeah, I saw some data yesterday that said basically democrats are at 86% with black felons and trump is at 60% with white felons. And neither really care about voting. I don't expect this to really be much of a factor.

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Quote

“If [Mueller] were to continue to investigate the financial relationships without a broadened scope in his appointment, then this would raise serious concerns that the special counsel’s investigation was a mere witch hunt,” Whitaker wrote on CNN.com last August. Before entering government as Sessions’ chief of staff last September, Whitaker was a legal commentator for CNN and appeared several times on network programs to opine on Mueller’s probe and the investigation into Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort. 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/09/the-man-set-to-become-deputy-attorney-general-said-muellers-investigation-risked-becoming-a-witch-hunt/

Edited by retread
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Why do we think that felons break in a impactful way for D's over R's.
Compare the demographics of felons to the trump support demographics.  Layer in education level, SES, and voter turnout rates by all these factors and I am not sure its a world changer. In other words, Florida still gonna Florida.  
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My totally uneducated opinion on it is that criminals tend to be poor and poor tend to vote D.
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1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

My money is on Mueller being fired before the new Congress is seated and before the House changes. 

This.

Now is the full-on assault on the Mueller investigation.  Trump has two years before the next election, and thus any electoral consequences.  NOW is when you get to see the authoritarianism play REALLY kick in.

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2 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 


My totally uneducated opinion on it is that criminals tend to be poor and poor tend to vote D.

 

Speaking of totally uneducated, white felons tend to be uneducated whites. And that is a Republican demographic.

I think the Florida felon vote will be about a 50/50 split. Not surprising, there's apparently some sort of Florida law that says nobody can win an election with 51%+ of the vote.

Edited by Huckleberry
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20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Why do we think that felons break in a impactful way for D's over R's.

Compare the demographics of felons to the trump support demographics.  Layer in education level, SES, and voter turnout rates by all these factors and I am not sure its a world changer. In other words, Florida still gonna Florida.  

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This is a study that looked at Voter disenfranchisement and specifically felons/ex-felons and what their effect might have been on the 2000 presidential race in Florida.  They estimated that close to 7 out of 10 votes would have gone to the Democrat and that even at half of expected voter turnout it would have resulted in a net gain of 40k votes for Gore.  At the time they were only looking at disenfranchisement of 850k felons - that number is now up to 1.4 million.

Trump won Florida by approx 100k votes

http://as.nyu.edu/content/dam/nyu-as/faculty/documents/Democratic_Contraction.pdf

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4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I don't think that the House OR the Senate are the tells. I think Florida is.  You had an all in Trumper take the governor, and (probably) unseated a Dem Senator in a very close race. 

That’s cause Florida sucks though. Can’t be helped. 

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Some of you Nancy’s need to calm down. Trump lost Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin last night. The first two bigly. He  absolutely can’t win without those three and he knows it. 

That and Texas is turning into a swing state. Want proof? How many political ads did you just watch the last couple months and look at the results. It’s getting ever closer. Beto won Tarrant and Williamson county for fucks sale. If trump and the trumpkins lose Texas there is no path to winning. 

Other than Beto losing, which was of course was always gonna be difficult, the most disappointing result last night was the Florida governors race. No doubt racism played a factor there. 

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1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Again odd feelings of sympathy from the left for Jeff Sessions. Enemy of my enemy I guess.

Yeah. He is a horrible little person with horrible backwards ideas, but he had slightly more honor than trump

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3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We’re assuming there will be elections in 2020

Yes there will. And the best thing about last night was it assured it. 

Had the republicans won the house, there still would have been elections. Just not the type you’re used to seeing unless you’re a Russian immigrant. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Some of you Nancy’s need to calm down. Trump lost Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin last night. The first two bigly. He  absolutely can’t win without those three and he knows it. 

That and Texas is turning into a swing state. Want proof? How many political ads did you just watch the last couple months and look at the results. It’s getting ever closer. Beto won Tarrant and Williamson county for fucks sale. If trump and the trumpkins lose Texas there is no path to winning. 

Other than Beto losing, which was of course was always gonna be difficult, the most disappointing result last night was the Florida governors race. No doubt racism played a factor there. 

North Carolina also has a Democratic governor and a 5-2 majority on their Supreme Court.  Can cut down on shenanigans there too.

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Just now, Hiphopopotamos said:

This is a study that looked at Voter disenfranchisement and specifically felons/ex-felons and what their effect might have been on the 2000 presidential race in Florida.  They estimated that close to 7 out of 10 votes would have gone to the Democrat and that even at half of expected voter turnout it would have resulted in a net gain of 40k votes for Gore.  At the time they were only looking at disenfranchisement of 850k felons - that number is now up to 1.4 million.

Trump won Florida by approx 100k votes

http://as.nyu.edu/content/dam/nyu-as/faculty/documents/Democratic_Contraction.pdf

Good find. That paper assumes a 68.9% preference among felons for Gore over Bush based on matching to non-felons on a variety of demographics and SES variables. Interestingly, Clinton (1996) goes 85.4%. However, that assumption is not totally transportable given the 2016 breakdowns.  Would be interesting to see the analysis replicated for 2016 (or for 2018 using the senate race or the governor race).

 

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2 hours ago, tjhooker said:

Clinton was fat.  Just thought I'd point that out with all the fat presidential talk today.  Not sure why it matters to be honest but it seems to.

Yeah he never claimed to weigh 100 lbs less than he did.  He also never asked doctors to release statements calling his fatass the healthiest fucker of all time.  

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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Good find. That paper assumes a 68.9% preference among felons for Gore over Bush based on matching to non-felons on a variety of demographics and SES variables. Interestingly, Clinton (1996) goes 85.4%. However, that assumption is not totally transportable given the 2016 breakdowns.  Would be interesting to see the analysis replicated for 2016 (or for 2018 using the senate race or the governor race).

 

Exactly, uneducated whites have shifted sharply to the Trump GOP.

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Just now, Huckleberry said:

Exactly, uneducated whites have shifted sharply to the Trump GOP.

Further, I would argue that their matching approach likely misses a number of unmeasured and/or unanticipated factors that drive differences in voter preference between felons and non-felons.  

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I can't find a 2020 presidential elections thread, and sorry if this has been posted already, but I've been thinking about an ideal democratic candidate. I think its someone from the military with a strong personality that can effectively call out Trump's bullshit. Like a McRaven. Someone who's integrity and dignity starkly contrast to Trump's childish/evil antics. The military angle & Washington outsider-ness should bring back at least some of the rednecks from the edge of the abyss. 

If that person does not exist, maybe there's hope for Hickenlooper and the idea of an R as a running mate.

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