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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


justhookit

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Here is yesterday's view of cases by age bucket. As I have been posting this week, table shows three categories (Travis County)

Count of daily change by age bucket, % of daily change by age bucket, % of total cases by age bucket.

Yesterday (7/15) turned the trend around and showed a big jump in the olds (60+) with 17% of daily cases. This age group had dipped earlier this week slightly below 12% of total cases for first time in long time but on the heels of yesterday's jump they are back over 12%. As this group comprises 85% of deaths thus far I would anticipate a spike in deaths in the coming weeks here. If you are >60% stay the fuck home. Have your kids/grandkids instacart your groceries etc.

Age Bracket 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 7/15 vs 7/14 9 50 137 115 75 81 45 26 29 567
% of Daily Change 1.59% 8.82% 24.16% 20.28% 13.23% 14.29% 7.94% 4.59% 5.11%  
% of Total Cases 2.67% 7.58% 27.80% 21.79% 16.41% 11.63% 6.24% 3.34% 2.54% 16,486
Edited by BrazilHorn
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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

So you want to delay the start 6-12 months and what would they be doing instead? Isn’t even subpar online learning better than....nothing?  

Guess I don’t follow your logic with that. Something is better than nothing? 

The issue isn't subpar learning, but rather that a significant number of kids aren't participating at all.  Like, they never logged in on the ipad the school provided.  Or they logged in for a couple weeks and then just stopped.  Or they logged in for meetings and an opportunity to interact with their classmates, but they never did any of the assigned lessons.  This didn't happen with just the lower income kids either...and I know it wasn't just our school district that had this problem.  I've heard the same thing from teachers and friends across the country, to varying degrees.  I'm talking kinder and elementary; I assume participation is at least a little better for older kids.   

I personally don't care what our school district decides.  I have faith they will try to make the best decision they can in this shitty situation.  My kids will be fine because we are active parents that have been supplementing their curriculum since Pre-K and have the time/flexibility to supervise and help them when needed.  But a significant number of my kids' classmates won't learn a damn thing because they don't have the parental support to help navigate the online learning process.  And as usual, the kids that need the most help will be the most screwed.  So what do we do about those kids?  I don't have a good answer.              

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17 hours ago, Newdoc said:

They pulled 3000 from previous totals for Bexar county for some kind of presumptive vs confirmed count snafu.

So record for daily cases, deaths, slightly lower hospital numbers and hold steady positivity at 17%. Not encouraging.

I've heard of an incident, by word of mouth, of presumptive cases. A lady at my Mother's church ended up with pink eye, she exhibited no other symptoms of COVID, and was not offered a COVID test, but the county health department assumed she was positive, they also considered her husband and three children as positive as well. Not sure if it is happening, but it is a possibility.

CHIEF

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Presumed positives aren't tallied in the official count from what I have seen.  Normally, you have to share a home with someone who is positive to be considered presumed positive.  At least that's how it works in my county.  It is mainly used for quarantine purposes.

Edited by kevwun
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5 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

This should infuriate everyone. We are purposely being kept in the dark. It’s criminal. 

Has the administration offered any explanation for the change?  I'll withhold judgment on whether this is intentional opacity.  There very well could be a valid explanation, such as transferring the responsibility to another source who has the capacity to provide the information more efficiently/quickly/reliably, e.g. 

Also, commentary on motives, etc., seems a little cloaky so probably better left for another thread.

Edited by DDD Dad
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7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Has the administration offered any explanation for the change?  I'll withhold judgment on whether this is intentional opacity.  There very well could be a valid explanation, such as transferring the responsibility to another source who has the capacity to provide the information more efficiently/quickly/reliably, e.g. 

Well the company running the new data collection program is called TeleTracking, got only $10MM to fund it, and got it through a no-bid contract and HHS has provided zero reasoning for the out-of-the-blue change. This NPR story has some more detail/facts, but hospitals are getting caught flat-footed by this because they have their hands full with, ya know, the fucking pandemic.

Benevolent or Malevolent, the timing and execution of the change has been not helpful to the healthcare providers in hospitals who actually have to record the data. And the folks who are actually studying the data are concerned that the move will bifurcate datasets and make things unnecessarily complex. Especially when there was no complaint or issue with the current system.

Edited by Captainant
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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I heard the same. I also heard that the hospitals get more money from Covid cases than regular cases so they are just classifying everything as Covid. My wife's cousin's wife just delivered a baby in Amarillo, and I heard the doctor wrote "COVID-19" on the birth certificate in sharpie so that they could get that diagnosis money. So now my third-removed nephew is actually named COVID-19inATX. True story.

If it isn't a possibility, then why did SA have to roll back their numbers by 3000?

CHIEF

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1 minute ago, CHIEF said:

If it isn't a possibility, then why did SA have to roll back their numbers by 3000?

CHIEF

There's not enough tests to positively test everyone being treated for COVID, so I would imagine that the reductions are just correcting previously assumptive positive cases. Considering what we know about the transmissivity of COVID it's a fair assumption that if a single member of the household has it, every member will eventually have it. 

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Just now, Captainant said:

There's not enough tests to positively test everyone being treated for COVID, so I would imagine that the reductions are just correcting previously assumptive positive cases. Considering what we know about the transmissivity of COVID it's a fair assumption that if a single member of the household has it, every member will eventually have it. 

If the person that gets it stays quarantined from the rest of the household, I'm not sure that is a fair assumption. Didn't we even have Surly members that tested positive, quarantined, and no one else in the house test positive? 

CHIEF

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Considering what we know about the transmissivity of COVID it's a fair assumption that if a single member of the household has it, every member will eventually have it. 

No. Not if you take precautions. I know several families with positive members who mitigated the spread with appropriate precautions and did not become infected. This was backed up with subsequent antibody tests.

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10 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

If it isn't a possibility, then why did SA have to roll back their numbers by 3000?

CHIEF

I don't know why SA rolled their numbers back by 3,000. Why did they let a tequila-drunk on burro design the layout of their downtown area? 

It was probably just a data issue. But I can promise you that this theoretical person and her four family members with pink eye were not counted as actual Covid cases. Maybe presumed (which don't count, as mentioned above). But my guess is that the story is fake. It's way too stupid to pass a bullshit test.

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Just now, Newdoc said:

No. Not if you take precautions. I know several families with positive members who mitigated the spread with appropriate precautions and did not become infected. This was backed up with subsequent antibody tests.

Huh, that's good news. I still don't expect a majority of families to take the appropriate precautions. It's just the flu, right?

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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I don't know why SA rolled their numbers back by 3,000. Why did they let a tequila-drunk on burro design the layout of their downtown area? 

It was probably just a data issue. But I can promise you that this theoretical person and her four family members with pink eye were not counted as actual Covid cases. Maybe presumed (which don't count, as mentioned above). But my guess is that the story is fake. It's way too stupid to pass a bullshit test.

Well, I am one person away from that person, and I know her personally, I can get it straight from the horse's mouth if that would make you feel better. I'm not saying this to make Corona a "hoax", I'm just trying to offer an explanation on why SA possibly had to roll back it's numbers. Kev mentioned that they shouldn't be counted anyway. My county just broke 200 cases today (60k county population). I don't know if she thought she was part of that number or not, and I'm not assuming she is in those numbers. Our numbers are still low enough that I assume that all those counted came from testing. 

CHIEF

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Huh, that's good news. I still don't expect a majority of families to take the appropriate precautions. It's just the flu, right?

My nephew and his girlfriend both tested positive after he had been exposed to Coronas at work. He just graduated from HS and still lives at home. Neither my sister or BIL ever caught it despite being around my nephew at least 12 hours a day including being on a road trip with my nephew and his girlfriend for 18 hours in the same car while they were both actively infected.

I have no idea how that is possible, but that’s what happened. Both my sister and BIL were both tested twice several days apart and were negative. This virus is strange.
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17 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Huh, that's good news. I still don't expect a majority of families to take the appropriate precautions. It's just the flu, right?

Unfortunately you are right so far and there are families that get caught flat footed after junior just had to party with his 50 unmasked friends and bring Covid home and spread it before anyone had a clue. And there is the single mom with two young kids she can’t just stick in a room while she gets over Covid.

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Coworker's husband is in the national guard and tested positive last week as did many in his unit.  He's been called up and in Dallas M-F all the last 2 months, home on weekends.

Family BBQ over the 4th, both of his sisters now test positive.  His dad and brother are getting tested today.  They all have symptoms.  So far coworker and their 18mo daughter show no symptoms, but until they do their PCP said they can't get tested.

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7 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Unfortunately you are right so far and there are families that get caught flat footed after junior just had to party with his 50 unmasked friends and bring Covid home and spread it before anyone had a clue. And there is the single mom with two young kids she can’t just stick in a room while she gets over Covid.

I've had three different sets of cousins/aunts/uncles go through the cycle of one getting it, then everyone getting it. Granted, they're the sort of folks who just want to get back to work and act like nothing is going on. It's good to know that you can avoid it even if it a family member has it though

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3 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Pretty interesting article. Austin was poised to become the next Silicon Valley ... and then the Covid hit.

https://marker.medium.com/austin-was-destined-to-replace-silicon-valley-then-the-pandemic-hit-6d5f5a332e04

RigUp's challenges are the result of Oil & Gas prices being depressed. I hear lots of VCs and founders moving their companies here from SF...I think Covid drives more start-ups to relocate not less.  

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22 minutes ago, Hate said:

My nephew and his girlfriend both tested positive after he had been exposed to Coronas at work. He just graduated from HS and still lives at home. Neither my sister or BIL ever caught it despite being around my nephew at least 12 hours a day including being on a road trip with my nephew and his girlfriend for 18 hours in the same car while they were both actively infected.

I have no idea how that is possible, but that’s what happened. Both my sister and BIL were both tested twice several days apart and were negative. This virus is strange.

I think that there are many anecdotal cases of this. Like, people sharing a tiny room in a cruise ship. One infected, the other never got it. There is evidence that some people may have resistance or immunity to sars-cov-2 because of antibodies developed previously against other coronaviruses. If this is true, then it would mean that the magic number to achieve heard immunity would be lower than the initial 60-70%.

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57 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Considering what we know about the transmissivity of COVID it's a fair assumption that if a single member of the household has it, every member will eventually have it. 

That's not an assumption that is being borne out by both anecdotal experience and the data. 

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9 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I think that there are many anecdotal cases of this. Like, people sharing a tiny room in a cruise ship. One infected, the other never got it. There is evidence that some people may have resistance or immunity to sars-cov-2 because of antibodies developed previously against other coronaviruses. If this is true, then it would mean that the magic number to achieve heard immunity would be lower than the initial 60-70%.

Link to this evidence? I haven't heard about this before. 

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1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

No. Not if you take precautions. I know several families with positive members who mitigated the spread with appropriate precautions and did not become infected. This was backed up with subsequent antibody tests.

Good friends of mine have had COVID run through their family.  Adult daughter (lives alone) got it first, then their adult son (who was staying with them).  Then the husband got it 10 days ago.  The wife is now in her third quarantine but still testing negative.  Fingers crossed.

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49 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Unless one of those 6 things is Dart Bowl not closing, I wouldn't count on any optimism coming from his way.

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1 hour ago, drt said:

Coworker's husband is in the national guard and tested positive last week as did many in his unit.  He's been called up and in Dallas M-F all the last 2 months, home on weekends.

Family BBQ over the 4th, both of his sisters now test positive.  His dad and brother are getting tested today.  They all have symptoms.  So far coworker and their 18mo daughter show no symptoms, but until they do their PCP said they can't get tested.

Small family get-together can be worse than going to a restaurant right now. At restaurants, customers are overly cautious and have relatively short exposure to the server, who is almost certainly wearing a mask.  At family BBQs, you around maskless people, that don’t live with you, for an entire day. And it seems like some treat this as a personal judgment about someone: “my brother and his family are clean so they can’t have covid.”

If people would stay home more or only socialize with people that they live with, we could all get this behind us sooner. But I don’t have faith in other people’s behavior.

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59 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

That's not an assumption that is being borne out by both anecdotal experience and the data. 

My 2nd cousin caught it while traveling his wife.  VERY early in the game with regard to confirmed cases.....pre-shutdown / everyone still flying. 

He and his wife were around the same people doing the same things and flew back home together sitting side by side.  He got very, very ill 7-10 days after their return. 

She had not only traveled with him there and back, but was sleeping in the same bed with him before/during his early symptomatic phase and nursing him while he got sicker.....thinking it was a severe sinus infection because he was run down after the trip (late nights, drinking, etc).  He crashed and tested positive when he was admitted to the hospital and then ICU. 

She tested negative multiple times as did their children who had the same exposure around the house, save the bed. 

My understanding is that she and the kids didn't even test positive for the antibodies that would have indicated her as positive / asymptomatic.

It's anecdotal but there are so many of these occurrences that there has to be something there with regard to natural immunity or the spread would be worse than it already is. 

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^
Very true, I am going religiously to my regiment of Mitigation, canned beans for strength, and the soothing scientific intellect of Dr. Chuck Woolery.  

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3 minutes ago, Reagan1k said:

We still don't know what we don't know about this virus. 

The truth is out there and as always is somewhere in the middle of all the speculation, denial, and hysteria.

I want to believe. 

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

That's not an assumption that is being borne out by both anecdotal experience and the data. 

I guess I was off base in that assumption, I appreciate the info - as mentioned earlier I've had three out of three cousin families go from one person to three people to everyone sick with it, so I've got some bias in my anecdotes. I really hope that people in general will buck the trend and take COVID seriously and follow best practices around other sick family members. But seeing how the general public has handled things so far, I'm not exactly keeping my hopes up

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28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I guess I was off base in that assumption, I appreciate the info - as mentioned earlier I've had three out of three cousin families go from one person to three people to everyone sick with it, so I've got some bias in my anecdotes. I really hope that people in general will buck the trend and take COVID seriously and follow best practices around other sick family members. But seeing how the general public has handled things so far, I'm not exactly keeping my hopes up

I hear you.  In one chinese study, they found relatively low transmissions rates generally among household members (<15%), but that rate was reduced to 0% when isolation and quarantine procedures were followed. 

 

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Just now, Anastasis said:

I hear you.  In one chinese study, they found relatively low transmissions rates generally among household members (<15%), but that rate was reduced to 0% when people who hate their spouses or freeloading kids were factored in.

 

FIFY

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7 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Highest total for Texas ever yesterday in cases and deaths. Damn, thought we were leveling off this past weekend

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And now we know why the Governor/TEA backed off.  Last week, he was saying this week was going to be even worse.  

He's got a direct line to the UT modeling group, I'm assuming.

The only direct line I have to any UT modeling group dried up many years ago, and involves restraining orders and accusations that I wasn't actually a photographer for a modeling agency, but just some guy taking photos and selling them on the internet.  Which is what I thought a modeling agency does, but the Travis County D.A. disagreed.

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