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Posted

Been holding on to PLTR since forever. I sold a little to lock in profits but the damn thing keeps chugging.

Current valuation has me really worried. Happy I'm in the green but worried about a quick fall.

Posted
1 hour ago, ajax said:

Been holding on to PLTR since forever. I sold a little to lock in profits but the damn thing keeps chugging.

Current valuation has me really worried. Happy I'm in the green but worried about a quick fall.

Yeah I have some but not like I had before.  I bailed completely and then started buying back in using covered calls, which kept fucking getting called.  I keep getting nervous about the valuation too.  But I am not leveraged to nearly the hild like I was before.  So I now don't wake up to check the pre-market at 3 am...  But not banking like I was on the rise either...

I am trying to decide if that August 1 tariff deadline is going to taco on down the road or not?  All evidence thus far would say bet on taco.  But part of me says perhaps the taco trade, was really just a get across the finish line with the beautiful bill trade? If so then is there no longer a political need to taco?  But mainly I worry about hanging onto to my PLTR, having them actually put up a good number, but have that good news drown in a sea of "What no TACO!?!?!"  The administration tends to time bad things to fall on weekends, after hours or holidays where the market cannot directly react in real time.

I still think long haul PLTR will be a great play, but the ride down is a lot steeper than the ride up.  I think they are going to have good numbers and very good US government numbers.  

Part of me says go ahead and get risky with PLTR and hedge again with UVIX against worse case scenario.  As UVIX is lower than when I first accumulated it the first go round on tariffs.  But that sleeping past 3 am....

Posted

I cashed out and took my profits from Kellanova and WK Kellogg today.  Patted myself on the back for a bit and then dumped all the proceeds into Honeywell.  I plan on dumping as much as I can for the rest of the year there and Kraft Heinz while they figure out what to do with themselves.

 

Posted
15 hours ago, Incredulity said:

The Simpsons Reaction GIF
 

that pig has done nothing for a decade

I'm not too excited about it, but I figure there might be a small payday if they start selling off pieces, spinning off, tweaking their financials, etc.

What I AM excited about is the Honeywell divestiture.  I've done well on the GE three-way split, also on the Kellogg thing (to a lesser degree).  Hoping to jump on this bandwagon, too.

Posted (edited)

Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Rocket Labs (RKLB) are both on absolute tears right now, both up 100% in a month. I am in both but not enough.  question for experienced traders -- dollar cost average into them or wait for pull backs.  Both are rising on news and fundamental business trends. JOBY is pre-revenue but the business progression is pretty solid with Delta and Toyota behind them.  Rocket Labs has new contracts and a rocket expected any time now that will compete with SpaceX.

so buy the dips or dollar cost averaging on a stock that's surging and you believe is an explosive growth stock? 

I'm actually leaning toward dollar cost averaging and adding more if the incremental timing of an investment occurs during a pullback.

Edited by troph
Posted
On 7/14/2025 at 1:02 PM, horn4life said:

Yeah I have some but not like I had before.  I bailed completely and then started buying back in using covered calls, which kept fucking getting called.  I keep getting nervous about the valuation too.  But I am not leveraged to nearly the hild like I was before.  So I now don't wake up to check the pre-market at 3 am...  But not banking like I was on the rise either...

I am trying to decide if that August 1 tariff deadline is going to taco on down the road or not?  All evidence thus far would say bet on taco.  But part of me says perhaps the taco trade, was really just a get across the finish line with the beautiful bill trade? If so then is there no longer a political need to taco?  But mainly I worry about hanging onto to my PLTR, having them actually put up a good number, but have that good news drown in a sea of "What no TACO!?!?!"  The administration tends to time bad things to fall on weekends, after hours or holidays where the market cannot directly react in real time.

I still think long haul PLTR will be a great play, but the ride down is a lot steeper than the ride up.  I think they are going to have good numbers and very good US government numbers.  

Part of me says go ahead and get risky with PLTR and hedge again with UVIX against worse case scenario.  As UVIX is lower than when I first accumulated it the first go round on tariffs.  But that sleeping past 3 am....

I'm new to the game, but have decided that in most instances valuation still matters. So it's on my watch list but I've passed on PLTR but may buy on a major pullback (probably broad based macro market led slide). I am in NVDA and as mentioned above, my two highest flying stocks (no pun intended) are currently JOBY and RKLB. A few others too, but those three make the FOMO on PLTR less of an issue.

Posted
21 hours ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

so dumb

image.png.4ee889b72a92f473f8bb720cab4466b5.png

Welcome U.S. Economy the Game! Until one day, the TACO retreat just doesn't go as planned. 

But PLTR just keeps roaring.  I have a feeling like MP they have booked a lot of US government business but haven't reported it unlike MP, or OKLO.  I also have always thought the long play on PLTR was the fact they have been operating AI in the more secure environments that exist, and I think the private sector will find that attractive.

Unfortunately I am not leveraged to the gills this run up. 

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Posted
25 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Welcome U.S. Economy the Game! Until one day, the TACO retreat just doesn't go as planned. 

But PLTR just keeps roaring.  I have a feeling like MP they have booked a lot of US government business but haven't reported it unlike MP, or OKLO.  I also have always thought the long play on PLTR was the fact they have been operating AI in the more secure environments that exist, and I think the private sector will find that attractive.

Unfortunately I am not leveraged to the gills this run up. 

but there's zero room for error in that valuation, not my cup of tea.

Posted
8 hours ago, troph said:

Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Rocket Labs (RKLB) are both on absolute tears right now, both up 100% in a month. I am in both but not enough.  question for experienced traders -- dollar cost average into them or wait for pull backs.  Both are rising on news and fundamental business trends. JOBY is pre-revenue but the business progression is pretty solid with Delta and Toyota behind them.  Rocket Labs has new contracts and a rocket expected any time now that will compete with SpaceX.

so buy the dips or dollar cost averaging on a stock that's surging and you believe is an explosive growth stock? 

I'm actually leaning toward dollar cost averaging and adding more if the incremental timing of an investment occurs during a pullback.

If only the answer was so simple. Momentum on well established companies is typically a low risk “jump in” opportunity. Momentum on hype is typically just that, and leaves you holding a heavy bag.

All I can say is, I took a look at RKLB today and chose something with less risk. I did not dig into the fundamentals, but typically companies not making profits are a huge risk when skyrocketing to new highs. These are prime opportunities to dump more shares to fund operations.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

If only the answer was so simple. Momentum on well established companies is typically a low risk “jump in” opportunity. Momentum on hype is typically just that, and leaves you holding a heavy bag.

All I can say is, I took a look at RKLB today and chose something with less risk. I did not dig into the fundamentals, but typically companies not making profits are a huge risk when skyrocketing to new highs. These are prime opportunities to dump more shares to fund operations.

i think there is more to RKLB (I spent a month digging on them before I bought) but as way of context my RKLB holdings is about 0.02 of our net worth and with JOBY (same percentage of NW) are two of my play money stocks, looking for 10x returns, and I think both have the early story to support it unlike the stonks thread. I'd like to have about 1-3% in 10x stock potential so I have plenty of room to add.  

Edited by troph
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Posted
11 hours ago, troph said:

i think there is more to RKLB (I spent a month digging on them before I bought) but as way of context my RKLB holdings is about 0.02 of our net worth and with JOBY (same percentage of NW) are two of my play money stocks, looking for 10x returns, and I think both have the early story to support it unlike the stonks thread. I'd like to have about 1-3% in 10x stock potential so I have plenty of room to add.  

Obviously, nobody has a crystal ball, but I’d wager there will be dips.

Posted

Is anybody here familiar with an ETF trading firm called tradr?

I've done really well with ASTS and they have obviously developed a derivatives trading model for that one stock. ASTX is the symbol.

Not sure if this should be on the stonks thread but whatever.

Posted
7 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

Is anybody here familiar with an ETF trading firm called tradr?

I've done really well with ASTS and they have obviously developed a derivatives trading model for that one stock. ASTX is the symbol.

Not sure if this should be on the stonks thread but whatever.

2x leverage on a single stock ETF?  Sounds dumb af; why not use options instead?

Besides, the stock was up 0.92% today and this so-called 2x ETF was up 1.3%.  Don't look like 2x to me.

Posted
On 7/14/2025 at 9:28 AM, ajax said:

Been holding on to PLTR since forever. I sold a little to lock in profits but the damn thing keeps chugging.

Current valuation has me really worried. Happy I'm in the green but worried about a quick fall.

I'm completely out now,  I've made enough money. Valuation is getting a little crazy.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Trump and the EU just reached a trade agreement.  Tomorrow, we rise.

The trade agreement is a reciprocal 15% tariff, which is considerably higher than what was in place prior to the current tariff regime. Not sure why a significantly and artificially higher COGS is going to trigger a rise, aside from LGU economics 

Edited by Captainant
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Posted

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2xylk3d07o.amp
 

 

The United States and European Union have reached a trade deal framework, ending a months-long standoff between two of the world's biggest economic partners.

After make-or-break negotiations between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen in Scotland, the pair agreed a US tariff on all EU goods of 15%. 

That is half the 30% import tax rate Trump had threatened to implement starting on Friday. He said the 27-member bloc would open its markets to US exporters with zero per cent tariffs on certain products.

Posted
37 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2xylk3d07o.amp
 

 

 

The United States and European Union have reached a trade deal framework, ending a months-long standoff between two of the world's biggest economic partners.

After make-or-break negotiations between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen in Scotland, the pair agreed a US tariff on all EU goods of 15%. 

That is half the 30% import tax rate Trump had threatened to implement starting on Friday. He said the 27-member bloc would open its markets to US exporters with zero per cent tariffs on certain products.

Laughable to assume this is the end of it. Some politician will say the wrong thing about Trump or some country will enact a policy he doesn't like, and he will slap a new tariff on him. I'm still trying to figure why increasing our costs by 15% is a win for America, but the markets seem to shrug it off. 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

It’s a start.

I honestly thought the market would get a bounce out of the deal on certainty.    Who knows... But 30 year pushing 5% is no bueno, but I would be surprised not to see a little bump of some kind today?  But WTF do I know.

 

Posted
43 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I honestly thought the market would get a bounce out of the deal on certainty.    Who knows... But 30 year pushing 5% is no bueno, but I would be surprised not to see a little bump of some kind today?  But WTF do I know.

 

It's balanced against the news that Aug 1 is real tariff date.  I bet that ends up pushing things downward.  Imma take a quick cash position with a plan to get back in on Aug 2 or so.

Posted

Let me see, many negative market indicators, including Fed slow to ease, pending tariffs, political troubles (Epstein), P/Es sky high, pending energy shortage to hinder or limit AI ramp up, etc which all day to me correction. So I've learned my lesson and it I can find the cash and the constitution then I should go all in on an reverse Me and buy more calls

Posted
22 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Let me see, many negative market indicators, including Fed slow to ease, pending tariffs, political troubles (Epstein), P/Es sky high, pending energy shortage to hinder or limit AI ramp up, etc which all day to me correction. So I've learned my lesson and it I can find the cash and the constitution then I should go all in on an reverse Me and buy more calls

The market can be irrational waaaaay longer than you or I can

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Let me see, many negative market indicators, including Fed slow to ease, pending tariffs, political troubles (Epstein), P/Es sky high, pending energy shortage to hinder or limit AI ramp up, etc which all day to me correction. So I've learned my lesson and it I can find the cash and the constitution then I should go all in on an reverse Me and buy more calls

*sell puts.

Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

The market can be irrational waaaaay longer than you or I can

That has always been true, and it was expensive to leave.

43 minutes ago, Parliament said:

*sell puts.

straddles are the way, spreads, etc....oh and didn't forget, it is best to do these naked (because that will be a glimpse at your life after you lose it all playing option games)

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Posted

I grabbed RDDT this morning before earnings. This company is poised for serious growth in a world of AI coming hard. You have millions of post and users and topics all from real people….that value will not go unnoticed now and well into the future.

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Posted (edited)

It will be interesting to see the jobs report this morning.  It looks as if the kick the can down the road on the stupidest economic policy ever implemented if you want low interest rates to pay for a masive increase in debt from the Big Beautiful Bill is going to be fully implemented.  Or, will as the market reacts, does the usual TACO trade stand ready to step in as usual.  How many detailed signed deals have we gotten thus far?   We do have assignment tariff tax rates, not deals.  

I assume that as the impact of this stupid economic policy comes to fruition, and 30 year interest rates push past 5%, the "real problem" will be that interest rates are too high at the Fed will be the administration drumbeat.   Now if the new policies wipe out job growth, you should examine what was inherited vs what was produced in Trump's first term.  A shit ton of debt, and less job production as income concentration moved to the upper classes.  ESPECIALLY compared to what he inherited.  I expect the same this go round.  The difference this time is that Trump will become less fearful of a bad response to Fed Chair removal as his policies begin to erode the US economy.  And somebody has to be blamed?  Not the policies...

What has been interesting to me is the benefits of AI on profits and the willingness of American companies to mostly eat the tariffs.  That was the real benefit of the TACO uncertainty, companies did not want to raise prices if they were not going to have to pass on the costs.  

Now we may get an awesome jobs report, and then that further makes the Fed making no move.  But inflation is coming.  And the tariff tax burden will be mostly felt by the middle and lower classes.    It's an interesting time we live in.  The good thing to remember is that if things really tank, TACO will come back.  It's just that you and I will not be sitting int he WHitehouse profitting bigly from knowing the timing of the TACO trade?

OR... IS TACO DEAD?  

 

 

Edited by horn4life
Posted
6 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

The next inflation report just got a whole lot more interesting. Jobs showing signs of cracking already and then if inflation ticks higher on top of that? Yowza. 

 

13 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

IMG_5033.thumb.png.502b80cde04dc590b500921905a224b6.png

Trump lays off federal employees who do research determining the correct inflation rate to increase Social Security benefits.

Increasing inflation is not found, so the olds get less money next year in their Social Security payments even though inflation is possibly much greater than the cost-of-living increase.

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

 

Despite this noise, the last report showed a 2.7% increase year-over-year. Maybe that is understated due to what you shared, but if it ticks up again next month, I think the market is finally going to start waking up to reality. Then again, I don't know shit. 

Posted
1 minute ago, LurkingHorn said:

Despite this noise, the last report showed a 2.7% increase year-over-year. Maybe that is understated due to what you shared, but if it ticks up again next month, I think the market is finally going to start waking up to reality. Then again, I don't know shit. 

the only way to guarantee the market doesn't wake up to reality is to bet that it WILL wake up to reality. Once you run out of money paying premiums, then it'll wake up

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Posted
3 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Despite this noise, the last report showed a 2.7% increase year-over-year. Maybe that is understated due to what you shared, but if it ticks up again next month, I think the market is finally going to start waking up to reality. Then again, I don't know shit. 

I know even less shit than you do my friend, but I do think that a trade war with the world, including a 35% tariff on our supposed greatest friend and neighbor, Canada, is not going to help job creation along our northern border.  We keep reloading the magazine and firing into our own dick. We grimace slightly and then reload the magazine again.   I’m not sure when we will realize this is perhaps not the best thing to do.

I worry that the traditional tactic for dealing with a stronger bully is for the weaker guys to all band together.  If most of our trade partners just said “screw you Trump, we’re not doing this”,  and his precious stock market craters even more, I think it will be YUGE taco/crawfish time.   The only question is will that be too little too late if he reduces tariffs on everybody down to 10%.  

Hell, maybe other nations don’t have the balls to oppose us that strongly, but I don’t think there will be enough EU consensus for them all to agree to the 15%.  (I think the EU vote to accept the tariff has to be unanimous, but I could be wrong and I would love to know what more informed people think)

But I feel positive that by the end of the year the supply chain problems and tariff uncertainty will start showing up in a more profound way in both jobs and inflation reports.

IMG_0145.gif.25e4af4f1f42f10c057229f99c955cd9.gif  

Posted
18 hours ago, Tailgate said:

I grabbed RDDT this morning before earnings. This company is poised for serious growth in a world of AI coming hard. You have millions of post and users and topics all from real people….that value will not go unnoticed now and well into the future.

Nice fn call. 

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