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Jimbo 2020: Strangers with Candi


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56 minutes ago, Shift said:


The game last year was pretty close until aggy got a late touchdown. Ole Miss qb was throwing all over them.

Ole Miss lost quite a bit of talent from that team and they don’t have the young talent to replace it. This is gonna be a rough year for them, unless Corral is the chosen one.

54 minutes ago, derp said:

Using this: https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/

Their chances of winning the individual games are:

Clemson: 3.8%

Alabama: 13.2%

Georgia: 17%

LSU: 26.2%

If I'm doing my math right. It looks like it's a 49% chance they go 0/4.

 

 

As the resident Surly math expert, I can tell you there is a 51% chance they don’t win any of the 4 and a 49% chance they win one. @TommyGufano can tell me if I did that right. 

and aggy will have a better than 49% chance of beating arky, FWIW. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
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5 hours ago, campcrunk said:

I love the way it's suddenly become unquestionable fact that Eaton tried to commit to them but was turned away. Sure thing, guys. Good luck leaving Jaylon Jones on an island against Bama's receivers.

    jimbo telling Eaton that aggy doesn't have room

giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Ole Miss lost quite a bit of talent from that team and they don’t have the young talent to replace it. This is gonna be a rough year for them, unless Corral is the chosen one.

As the resident Surly math expert, I can tell you there is a 51% chance they don’t win any of the 4 and a 49% chance they win one. @TommyGufano can tell me if I did that right. 

and aggy will have a better than 49% chance of beating arky, FWIW. 

umm... not really available to crunch #'s at the moment, but I'll say that if you're right it's 49% that they win *at least* one

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3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Holy fuck, Auburn is loaded for bare, save QB.

Their projected OL is all 5 year seniors. Their starting defense has 2 projected SOs, everyone else is an upperclassmen. If they get anything from Bo, they are beating aggy.

Auburn and South Carolina are going to beat aggy.  Arky will keep it close like last year, 7 point ballgame at a neutral site. Corral at Ole Miss is decent.  They have a puncher's chance too.  

Edited by lemonandaturd
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6 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Ole Miss lost quite a bit of talent from that team and they don’t have the young talent to replace it. This is gonna be a rough year for them, unless Corral is the chosen one.

As the resident Surly math expert, I can tell you there is a 51% chance they don’t win any of the 4 and a 49% chance they win one. @TommyGufano can tell me if I did that right. 

and aggy will have a better than 49% chance of beating arky, FWIW. 

49% chance they win one or more. Got to do some basic combinatorics to get the value of winning exactly 1. 

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This thread right now....

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For the individual game odds given:

0-4: 51.15%

1-3: 38.43%

2-2: 9.51%

3-1: 0.88%

4-0: 0.02% (1 in 5000)

I'm sure the Texags predictions are running at a similar distribution.

Edited by WBT
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24 minutes ago, TommyGufano said:

umm... not really available to crunch #'s at the moment, but I'll say that if you're right it's 49% that they win *at least* one

 

21 minutes ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

49% chance they win one or more. Got to do some basic combinatorics to get the value of winning exactly 1. 

I realize that part. I was more focused on doing phone calculator math than writing it all out. Just another reason why I should never do math. 

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28 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

Auburn and South Carolina are going to beat aggy.  Arky will keep it close like last year, 7 point ballgame at a neutral site. Corral at Ole Miss is decent.  They have a puncher's chance too.  

From your lips to...……………….

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31 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

Auburn and South Carolina are going to beat aggy.  Arky will keep it close like last year, 7 point ballgame at a neutral site. Corral at Ole Miss is decent.  They have a puncher's chance too.  

Auburn's inexperienced QB vs aggy's DBs is clearly weakness against weakness. Auburn has historically had a stout and persistent running game, but I know nothing about aggy's DL.

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Every year me and a group of friends get together and we make our picks for the season. Great group of guys and 4 are aggys.  The most sensible of the group was a QB in the 80’s under Sherrill. 

 

So so last night we make our picks and they all think 10-2.  I just laugh. I said 6-6 is most likely but you may get 7-5.  The QB said “the only person who has a clue about this team is a god damn longhorn!  There is no way we go 10-2.  I think we are 7-5.”  

Clemson will beat them by 20

Alabama beats them by 14

LSU beats them by 14

Georgia beats them by 17

Auburn beats them by 7

I think they lose 1 of Miss, Miss St or Cocks  

I can’t wait to see the faces and watch the tears fall.

 

 

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The SEC is soft outside of Bama, UGA, LSU, and maybe Mullen’s gators. Aggy is no Texas, but they’re  more talented than most of that conference. Clemson with Trevor will likely work them over. Their odds of beating a top team aren’t great, but the odds of losing to one of their other 5 aren’t much higher. I’ll laugh along with everyone else should they stumble, but the overwhelming likelihood in my opinion is that they win either 7 or 8 this year, before the bowl. The treat won’t be their utter collapse; it will be their exposure as an obvious little brother in the SEC and to us.

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As the resident Surly math expert, I can tell you there is a 51% chance they don’t win any of the 4 and a 49% chance they win one. [mention=652]TommyGufano[/mention] can tell me if I did that right. 
and aggy will have a better than 49% chance of beating arky, FWIW. 

Aggy will go 0-4.
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2 minutes ago, Tree Fidy said:


Aggy will go 0-4.

Eh, they never have a truly purifying "kick the bums out" bad season. They muddle along at 8-4 with just enough hope to never make fundamental changes.

They win one of the big four but Auburn absolutely takes their heads off.

Edited by texifornia
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25 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Eh, they never have a truly purifying "kick the bums out" bad season. They muddle along at 8-4 with just enough hope to never make fundamental changes.

They win one of the big four but Auburn absolutely takes their heads off.

I mean, we just went through a decade with multiple losing seasons. Granted, we had Charlie “kickoff to start both halves” Strong coaching most of those losing seasons which can’t be ignored, but still, if it can happen to us, why not aggy? 

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2 minutes ago, Etexhorn13 said:

I mean, we just went through a decade with multiple losing seasons. Granted, we had Charlie “kickoff to start both halves” Strong coaching most of those losing seasons which can’t be ignored, but still, if it can happen to us, why not aggy? 

Because they have Lamar, UNT, Plano East, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and USCe there to cushion the blow. They would need an implosion of historic proportion to fail to win 6 games, let alone more than once in a row.

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16 minutes ago, Etexhorn13 said:

I mean, we just went through a decade with multiple losing seasons. Granted, we had Charlie “kickoff to start both halves” Strong coaching most of those losing seasons which can’t be ignored, but still, if it can happen to us, why not aggy? 

3-4 OOC auto-wins every year.  Arkansas, Ole Miss and S. Carolina every year.  Win 2 out of 3 against the SEC dregs and they are bowl eligible most seasons.  In really tough years where they only have 3 putrid OOC games and only win 2 against the cellar dwellers, aggy just needs one game from Auburn, MSU, 2nd SEC East team to get bowl eligible.  Even for aggy they have to try really hard to not be at least 6-6.

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21 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Because they have Lamar, UNT, Plano East, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and USCe there to cushion the blow. They would need an implosion of historic proportion to fail to win 6 games, let alone more than once in a row.

Yeah I love Ole Miss, but when you get to coach against this dude every year go take your W

apnyfhtcqtragve8frsc

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13 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Because they have Lamar, UNT, Plano East, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and USCe there to cushion the blow. They would need an implosion of historic proportion to fail to win 6 games, let alone more than once in a row.

This is true. I should’ve added that we can take for granted that they have three auto wins every year at least built into the schedule. Would be great if arky could break their streak instead of just trying hard. 

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2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

You should have heard before now not to drink and derive

 

1 hour ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

Drinking and deriving is easy. Drinking and integrating is what's hard.

Couple of third derivatives on this thread

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9 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

"What is our record against Clemson, Bama, UGA, and LSU?

Alexa: "Your record is a combined 29-46. Don't include me in your bullshit."

Every single one of them are predicting 2-2 minimum.  I've never seen the roller coaster roll this high before.

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12 hours ago, golfclap said:

I've seen this all off-season and I know the reason (because: aggy) but I have enjoyed greatly the talk of the "Big 4" games on the schedule while completely dismissing Auburn and Moo State (who fucking mudholed their asses the past 2 years) as wins. 

 

 

 

In fairness, the SEC is dog shit outside of three teams and they play 3 built in wins in non conference. Their season really is four games. That’s why when they go 8-4 it’s going to be awesome. 

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A&M has several cupcakes on their schedule and most of the SEC is down from recent historical levels (Miss St, Miss, South Car, even Florida and Auburn). Only Kentucky is higher than historical levels. Bama, Georgia, and LSU are pretty much the same. A&M will go 8-4. If they go 7-5 or 6-6 it means Jimbo truly has gone past his prime.

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