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2022 Summer Season: Flavor-Aid (Strength: Prison Wine)


BurntOrange&White

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7 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

I’m not arguing those CFB projections, but you ignore pretty much all stats/information that is positive.

There’s really no reason to believe we’ll regress on the Oline. In almost any year, you get at least one guy who has improved or plays better than anticipated and beyond expectations. It seems that if Banks comes in at LT and can be average, that is a huge upgrade in most peoples minds.

We played teams that defensively created chaos. On a per game basis, we played 3 of the top 17 in average TFLs per game. All 3 in consecutive weeks, the last two had Bye weeks prior to playing us. The third we screwed up by jacking our lineup due to injury. Take out G5 teams it was 3 of top 11. Six conference foes were top 38. There were 5 SEC teams in the top 38. 7 from the ACC. 2 Big 10.

Now let’s take the Stuff Rate. Texas was best in the Big 12 on the Oline with the lowest rate. Obviously there are sacks allowed. We were tied at 61st in the country in sacks allowed.

You can argue Bijan saved some here. Probably but he wasn’t far and away the broken tackles leader either. I’d also counter that our QBs didn’t save us much either.

But the point is that our opponents didn’t sit back and play passively. They attacked. And they were good at it. Not just against us but every team they played.

So I’ll ask simply this. Do you expect our Oline to be better next year? Even incrementally. Year 2. Good coaching. Additional year of maturity. Great incoming talent.

This is the hope of the Mighty Quinn. We look back at some of the film from the second half of OSU and OU games. Those defenses came after Texas, especially OSU. They dared Texas to beat them with the pass. I am sure someone can pull up that picture of OSU with the whole defense playing inside of 10 yards of the LOS. Texas needs a QB that can get the all out in a hurry and on target. Put it in perspective, only 3 QBs in the NFL averaged 3 seconds or more to throw a pass. I am pretty confident Texas was well beyond 3 seconds last year 

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20 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

We played teams that defensively created chaos. On a per game basis, we played 3 of the top 17 in average TFLs per game.

Now take their defensive stats against us out and where did they rank?

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What in the fuck are you trying to do with this post? Instill hope through logic and data? You're a heartless bastard.

I’m not sure I can answer that question. I’m fully aware it will do nothing to lessen the whining of some. Maybe it makes me feel better. The data does provide interest. To me anyway.

But damnit I’m hopeful. That’s the path I’ve chosen.
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1 minute ago, Had Enough said:


I’m not sure I can answer that question. I’m fully aware it will do nothing to lessen the whining of some. Maybe it makes me feel better. The data does provide interest. To me anyway.

But damnit I’m hopeful. That’s the path I’ve chosen.

Maybe pick a new username?

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1 hour ago, JFKFC said:

One of the most valued metrics in college football models like this is Returning Offensive Line Starts. These models work under the assumption that, if a team is choosing to start a player again, he must be a quality offensive lineman. If a team were to curiously start 4 substandard offensive linemen in consecutive seasons, the model will crank out bad data. 

hopefully guys get better year over year if they are starting

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22 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

This is the hope of the Mighty Quinn. We look back at some of the film from the second half of OSU and OU games. Those defenses came after Texas, especially OSU. They dared Texas to beat them with the pass. I am sure someone can pull up that picture of OSU with the whole defense playing inside of 10 yards of the LOS. Texas needs a QB that can get the all out in a hurry and on target. Put it in perspective, only 3 QBs in the NFL averaged 3 seconds or more to throw a pass. I am pretty confident Texas was well beyond 3 seconds last year 

     2:51 mark... All eleven on defense within 5yrs of the LOS  😠

 

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6 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

That picture makes me ragey. An injured Casey Thompson was helpless against a good defense. Didn’t he also throw a terrible pick six in that game? 

He did. That is also a great example of what I am talking about. Texas is running a pick and the arrow route is open. The ball doesn’t come out and the rest is history. He even cuts it up the sideline and is open, ball still doesn’t come out 

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Now take their defensive stats against us out and where did they rank?

If Texas-OSU didn’t count, then OSU goes from 2nd to 1st in TFLs per game.

I did scan box scores quickly except ULaLa. If you were to back out our games, it was more often than not our opponents had fewer TFLs and loss yardage versus us than their season average.

One thing that was not readily apparent in box scores was receptions that resulted in TFLs. I did see one and counted it against Worthy versus OSU.
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30 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


If Texas-OSU didn’t count, then OSU goes from 2nd to 1st in TFLs per game.

I did scan box scores quickly except ULaLa. If you were to back out our games, it was more often than not our opponents had fewer TFLs and loss yardage versus us than their season average.

One thing that was not readily apparent in box scores was receptions that resulted in TFLs. I did see one and counted it against Worthy versus OSU.

For their faults in pass pro the Oline was a good run blocking unit last year.  What I worry about is falling behind there without making up ground elsewhere.

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10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

For their faults in pass pro the Oline was a good run blocking unit last year.  What I worry about is falling behind there without making up ground elsewhere.

I think run blocking will be solid, but like last year it may take a little time. I still think Texas is in dire need of OT that can hold up in pass pro without help. Offense is likely to start out a bit inconsistent and mature over the course of the year. Despite all the nonsense in here about the OL and offense in general, the real issue last year was the defense. I suspect that isn’t getting cured over night. The defense is going to determine this teams ceiling 

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8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is in dire need of OT that can hold up in pass pro without help. Offense is likely to start out a bit inconsistent and mature over the course of the year. Despite all the nonsense in here about the OL and offense in general, the real issue last year was the defense. I suspect that isn’t getting cured over night. The defense is going to determine this teams ceiling 

  • 1) So someone want to provide some strong spiked Kool-Aid on why this defense will be a lot better in 2022??

(I'm guessing addition of Ryan Watts plus the hopeful addition of Ochaun Mathis will be part of the answer )

 

  • 2) Where The Fuck has Leadership really improved on this 2022 team, especially on the defensive side of the ball ??

I'm trying to find some tough nasty guys, who give a shit and will start for this team in 2022.  The only one to fit the bill so far might be Byron Murphy.

 

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10 minutes ago, Fud said:

This coach thought that Keondre Coburn is likely still starting because he is a senior but would not be surprised if Byron Murphy is basically starting by the time the season starts. "Murphy is better," he said, noting that Coburn's pad level in team drills is still a concern.

I am as down on Sark and Pete K as anyone, but if they will make this a meritocracy, and bench a 5th year guy for someone like Murphy who (I have heard from multiple analysts) is better, that would be a tremendously positive sign. Let's hope it happens. 

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2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:
  • 1) So someone want to provide some strong spiked Kool-Aid on why this defense will be a lot better in 2022??

(I'm guessing addition of Ryan Watts plus the hopeful addition of Ochaun Mathis will be part of the answer )

 

  • 2) Where The Fuck has Leadership really improved on this 2022 team, especially on the defensive side of the ball ??

I'm trying to find some tough nasty guys, who give a shit and will start for this team in 2022.  The only one to fit the bill so far might be Byron Murphy.

 

I think Cook and Crawford have the potential to really upgrade the Safety spot. Kitan has legit wheels at FS. I do think Watts should be nickel. Barron at CB, but even with this configuration it is better. Cook wasn’t good when asked to cover int he slot. Barron allows them to be much more aggressive in coverage. LB will be improved. You can base that on Ford’s progression last year from game 1 to game 12. Have to hope Overshown being healthy for his first spring ball improves his game. Texas will be fine on the interior DL. That is about all I got for Kool Aid 

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17 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

58939604_ScreenShot2022-04-15at4_17_38PM.thumb.png.78ab12cfbbdcd2a4910a226b688e1529.png

At 2:54 ... Worthy is running up the sideline, while his man is standing still.  That's an easy conversion.

Cade Brewer standing at the first down marker, wide open.

Casey Thompson gets tackled for a loss.

I think a competent QB might be able to convert the first down there.

There is also Washington running down the middle of the field. So the deep safety on that side has to Split Washington or Worthy. We can’t see if he shaded one side or the other,  it it is a 2 on 1 

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8 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

I am as down on Sark and Pete K as anyone, but if they will make this a meritocracy, and bench a 5th year guy for someone like Murphy who (I have heard from multiple analysts) is better, that would be a tremendously positive sign. Let's hope it happens. 

I understand your point, but announced starters on the DL don’t mean anything because we rotate so much. Sweat and Ojomo both played more snaps over Coburn as the year went on last year and Murphy saw the field a fair amount.

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8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I think Cook and Crawford have the potential to really upgrade the Safety spot. Kitan has legit wheels at FS. I do think Watts should be nickel. Barron at CB, but even with this configuration it is better. Cook wasn’t good when asked to cover int he slot. Barron allows them to be much more aggressive in coverage. LB will be improved. You can base that on Ford’s progression last year from game 1 to game 12. Have to hope Overshown being healthy for his first spring ball improves his game. Texas will be fine on the interior DL. That is about all I got for Kool Aid 

Thx Codaxx...

I'm also hoping that the offense doesn't have nearly as many 3 and outs in 2022, and averages closer to 35+pts per game -- that would definitely increase the number of wins for Texas this year.

Coach Banks better bust his ass with the Special Teams this year -- not sure what Texas has there...

 

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Just now, Hookem2147 said:

I understand your point, but announced starters on the DL don’t mean anything because we rotate so much. Sweat and Ojomo both played more snaps over Coburn as the year went on last year.

Sweat and Collins are the 2 to focus on, if you want Kool Aid. If someone can get their motors running hot every play, this is a different defense.  Coburn is Coburn. He is fine vs the run, but he just isn’t a disruptive player at this point. Maybe he turns it on, but Sweat and Collins have NFL upside. Murphy is young and shows nice promise, but the one thing he separates from the rest is his motor. He plays hard every play 

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9 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Thx Codaxx...

I'm also hoping that the offense doesn't have nearly as many 3 and outs in 2022, and averages closer to 35+pts per game -- that would definitely increase the number of wins for Texas this year.

Coach Banks better bust his ass with the Special Teams this year -- not sure what Texas has there...

 

Damn you, you made me look. Texas was 105th in OFD (drives with at least one first down). I believe @NoName or @Nope had a stat that showed the Texas offense was abysmal with bad field position. It was basically of the offense got the ball inside their 25 it was almost a sure 3 and out. The defense was 90th in DFD. That was a 2 fold issue. One they tired out, because they didn’t get off the field. #2 they gave up field position and forced a poor starting position for the offense 

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14 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

There is also Washington running down the middle of the field. So the deep safety on that side has to Split Washington or Worthy. We can’t see if he shaded one side or the other,  it it is a 2 on 1 

Why not leave Washington open? It's not like he is going to catch the ball.

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5 minutes ago, Nope said:

The idea of Cam Williams as a pulling guard is extremely gruntling

I watched him in the playoffs and I was really impressed with his pass blocking. Oddly his running blocking needed work. Lot of lunging and pushing. I am guessing because he had work on pass pro and he could get away with natural size advantage in the run game. I maybe higher on him than anyone (if he stays in shape)

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14 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Damn you, you made me look. Texas was 105th in OFD (drives with at least one first down). I believe @NoName or @Nope had a stat that showed the Texas offense was abysmal with bad field position. It was basically of the offense got the ball inside their 25 it was almost a sure 3 and out. The defense was 90th in DFD. That was a 2 fold issue. One they tired out, because they didn’t get off the field. #2 they gave up field position and forced a poor starting position for the offense 

 

FYI... May see the Texas Defense have to defend more plays/gm in 2022 with the new higher rep offenses at blOU, tech, wvu, and tcu.   

Spoiler

Gonna be a lot more plays/gm to defend 

  • blOU -- Jeff Lebby           80.5 plays/gm   (#4)
  • tech -- Zach Kittle            77.2 plays/gm    (#14)
  • wvu -- Graham Harrell     76.4 plays/gm    (#17)
  • tcu -- Sonny Dykes          75.5 plays/gm    (#25)

 

Interesting...  2021 Stats 

  • UTSA -- Jeff Traylor         73.8 plays/gm     (#30)
  • TEXAS --  SARK                68.8 plays/gm     (#80)
  • USC  -- Blinkin' Riley        66.8 plays/gm     (#107)*

*  at blOU

 

 https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/plays-per-game#:~:text=College FB Team Plays per Game , 97.0 42 more rows

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

I understand your point, but announced starters on the DL don’t mean anything because we rotate so much.

I think it would send the right message to the team to not have a 5th year guy start if he doesn't deserve to start. 

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1 hour ago, Fud said:

OBs

  Hide contents

Choice told a group of coaches at practice that this is the "most toys" he's ever had to play with as far as RB personnel. He also said "and don't worry, I have more coming." It's unclear who exactly he's referring to, but he's extremely confident about something this coach said.

 

Damn, that whole OB writeup is a diabetes inducing sized serving of Kool Aid, but this part about Choice can only mean Rueben Owens, right?

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For their faults in pass pro the Oline was a good run blocking unit last year.  What I worry about is falling behind there without making up ground elsewhere.

It could happen, but that’d surprise me. This whole team has undergone a lot of changes over several seasons. That’ll make you a step slow.

Kerstetter was better at pass pro so that’s why I expect more improvement in the run game as I’d think we won’t see a drop off at RT in that regard. If it Jones, I’d expect improvement. Then it’s the production from the LT.

I’d also assume the RBs show improvement in their blocking. TE maybe?
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5 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


It could happen, but that’d surprise me. This whole team has undergone a lot of changes over several seasons. That’ll make you a step slow.

Kerstetter was better at pass pro so that’s why I expect more improvement in the run game as I’d think we won’t see a drop off at RT in that regard. If it Jones, I’d expect improvement. Then it’s the production from the LT.

I’d also assume the RBs show improvement in their blocking. TE maybe?

The first task is to not allow free rushers due to simple stunts and blitzes

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2 hours ago, TheMailBox357 said:

I don't understand that stance when Sark's last 2 full seasons as a head coach before UT (2014 USC & 2013 UW) He won 9 games each of those seasons.

No, he didn’t.

 

he’s won 9 games 1 time. At USC. 
 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/steve-sarkisian-1.html

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  • BurntOrange&White changed the title to 2022 Summer Season: Flavor-Aid (Strength: Prison Wine)
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