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Realignment talk not going away


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https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/big-ten-commissioner-kevin-warren-expansion-not-something-we’re-doing/yhkdudzkguta6y6e4j5nqbsb

Money quote:

"...When people ask me right now: Do I think certain conferences may grow through a natural evolution to 18 or 20 schools? I do believe that. Now, over what time period is the critical question. I don’t know if that’s within a year, or five years, or seven years. I just think there’s been kind of like that … kind of like the Big Ten grew in the past. 

I just think there’s going to be some natural growth. But I made it very clear: Some of my can’t-miss priorities, the things that I have to make sure we execute flawlessly are:..."

 

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42 minutes ago, Sandman said:

It used to vary, so I assume it still does. ou was always the highest priced game. The non-con dregs were the cheapest. 

That’s why sellouts and attendance are a poor measure of program attraction. A better metric is attendance times average ticket price, plus annual donations to hold seat locations. 

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On 10/8/2022 at 9:51 PM, TKthunder2 said:

Serious question, why did they lower the capacity after 2016?

55,509 (2019–present)
56,790 (2017–2018)
60,218 (2009–2016)
60,000 (2008)
44,700 (2007)

It was a multi-year process to make the stadium more comfortable.

I don't know if you've ever been to a game at BPS, but the seating in the "original" north/south stands was extremely cramped... like they jammed way too many "seats" into the available space and it was a pretty uncomfortable situation if the stadium was anywhere near to being full.  There was a noticeable difference in comfort in the west end zone since it was more recently constructed.

So they had a two-year process of removing about 4,000 "seats" from the north and south sides and reconfiguring how the seat assignments worked on each side, if that makes sense. (IIRC they did the south side after then 2016 season and the north side after the 2017 season... so I thought it was settled in 2018, so I don't know what that difference of ~150 or so is above in "2019-present"... I guess maybe they did some tweaks or something at the end.

It took some time to work out because in many cases, season ticket holders' seats were impacted and so that's why the process had to be completed over a couple of seasons. (They were trying to minimize the disruption to total number of season ticket holders in a given season)

Edited by oSuJeff97
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1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

It was a multi-year process to make the stadium more comfortable.

I don't know if you've ever been to a game at BPS, but the seating in the "original" north/south stands was extremely cramped... like they jammed way too many "seats" into the available space and it was a pretty uncomfortable situation if the stadium was anywhere near to being full.  There was a noticeable difference in comfort in the west end zone since it was more recently constructed.

So they had a two-year process of removing about 4,000 "seats" from the north and south sides and reconfiguring how the seat assignments worked on each side, if that makes sense. (IIRC they did the south side after then 2016 season and the north side after the 2017 season... so I thought it was settled in 2018, so I don't know what that difference of ~150 or so is above in "2019-present"... I guess maybe they did some tweaks or something at the end.

It took some time to work out because in many cases, season ticket holders' seats were impacted and so that's why the process had to be completed over a couple of seasons. (They were trying to minimize the disruption to total number of season ticket holders in a given season)

Cool thanks, I have been sat in the visitor section on the second tier back in 2012.  I probably have a picture somewhere.

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7 minutes ago, bullet said:

Why would the conference do that?  The R8 would want to get Texas and OU at home.

Tech, Kansas, oSu, Oklahoma State all got us this year so it wouldn't make sense to have us go to their places next year. It would be a pretty obvious move to screw us and we would then possibly have grounds to sue our way out. There will definitely be some form of us and OU getting two of the 4 new members at their stadiums. OU to UCF and Cincy. Texas to Houston and BYU. 

Edited by mdmost
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Shooting from the hip

Texas will play Oklahoma, Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, BYU and West Virginia both years then rotate KU, K State, Cincy, UCF, Iowa St, Okie St

Oklahoma will play Texas, Okie St, Kansas, K State, UCF, Cincy, and Iowa St both years and rotate Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, BYU, and WVU 

It would be really weird to me to not play Oklahoma State in our final year in the Big 12.

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If SEC settles on a 3+6 schedule format once we join (which seems likely), two of our 3 are almost certainly going to be OU and aggy. Who do you (1) think and (2) hope is designated our third ‘every year’ conference game?

My thoughts: 1. A middle of the pack team without much clout in the conference. The premier teams already have established rivalries and don’t want an extra challenge getting to the CCG. Vanderbilt and its accompanying automatic W will be snapped up by connected schools. It is possible that a Mizzou- or Arky- type pushes for the game to help have a better recruiting presence in-state. 2. Vandy would be #1 for the win and the all-time record correction opportunity. Piggie is an old rival but one better left divorced IMO. Please not Mizzou or MSU — not much upside to visiting those holes every other year.

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Though there was a belief that Texas and Oklahoma may have been attempting to exit the Big 12 one year early in 2024, sources told Dodd that Fox would likely have demanded years of significant television inventory trades from ESPN as the marquee programs would have left its airwaves. That's beyond what would have been a potentially massive early exit fee the programs would have needed to pay the Big 12 directly.

Fox and ESPN are currently partners in Big 12 programming, while ESPN will be the exclusive television partner of the SEC beginning in 2025 when the Longhorns and Sooners join the league.

The Big 12 is actively seeking a new media rights deal with Fox and ESPN both engaged in conversations.

That last sentence is important. Without a new deal FOX has no reason to give up access to Texas or Oklahoma.  But if they strike a new deal/extension ESPN could easily give up future Big 12 inventory to FOX to make them whole for the early departures. But I don’t think ESPN wants to deal with placating FOX in order to give those too Texas/Oklahoma games to CBS.  They could buy out CBS but that seems like a bridge too far.

ESPN would have to increase their payout to the SEC, make a good deal with the new Big 12, placate FOX with 2 years worth of inventory trades, and buy the SEC rights for 2023 from CBS. It just seems like a bit too much.

Take CBS out of the picture, lower FOX’s inventory trade to a single year, and know that the Big 12’s leverage diminishes greatly after the 2024 season and 2024 seems like a more realistic departure.

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Our insiders are hearing B!G is not done, and could mean the end of the Pac (spoilering cuz it's $9.95 stuff and they really don't like finding their shit cut and pasted elsewhere)

Spoiler

it’s highly likely the next development is for Washington and Oregon to join the Big Ten.

After that, things aren’t as certain. Probably ASU and Utah to the Big 12. The talk is Stanford could go independent.

The fate of Cal and Arizona is even less certain.

The Mountain West will probably pick up some of the remaining Pac-12.

The Pac-12 looks to not be long for this world — soon.

 

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19 hours ago, mdmost said:

Tech, Kansas, oSu, Oklahoma State all got us this year so it wouldn't make sense to have us go to their places next year. It would be a pretty obvious move to screw us and we would then possibly have grounds to sue our way out. There will definitely be some form of us and OU getting two of the 4 new members at their stadiums. OU to UCF and Cincy. Texas to Houston and BYU. 

It doesn't really screw us, just the R8.  They will want OU and UT at home as much as possible the next two years.  If we are here 2 more years, BU, TCU, TT, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, WVU and the OU game are likely our 9 road games.  OU will be the same.

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5 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Weird to me that the Big 12 wouldn't take Arizona. I get not taking Colorado, though.

I wonder if this is a case of “does it make a better idea to save room for 2 Cali schools somehow for markets” vs just taking the 4 corner schools as a whole.

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16 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Which part, my money is UT/OU are stuck in 2023 (SEC already released their 2023 schedule and CBS still has first tier rights until 2024).

The $55 million CBS contract still controls the 3:30 SEC time slot for one more year.  CBS isn't giving that up.  And without that change to the over $300 million ESPN contract, there's not much incentive to move in 2023.

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11 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Weird to me that the Big 12 wouldn't take Arizona.

Doesn't make sense to me at all, either.

People aren't going to care about Big 12 football, so you'd better be a basketball conference.  KU, Okie St, and Arizona are a damned good start on that.

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44 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Our insiders are hearing B!G is not done, and could mean the end of the Pac (spoilering cuz it's $9.95 stuff and they really don't like finding their shit cut and pasted elsewhere)

  Reveal hidden contents

it’s highly likely the next development is for Washington and Oregon to join the Big Ten.

After that, things aren’t as certain. Probably ASU and Utah to the Big 12. The talk is Stanford could go independent.

The fate of Cal and Arizona is even less certain.

The Mountain West will probably pick up some of the remaining Pac-12.

The Pac-12 looks to not be long for this world — soon.

 

Rick Neuheisel?  He said a couple days ago Washington and Oregon is a done deal, just a question of when.  Brett McMurphy has never reversed his frequently repeated position that the Big 10 people were telling him they were expanding more on the west coast.  He expected UW, Oregon, Stanford and Cal.  Big 10 commissioner Warren said the other day expansion wasn't his top priority, but he still expected 18-20 team conferences, but wasn't sure whether the timeline was within 1 year, 5 years or 7 years.  Pretty clear he was referring to the Big 10 and SEC expanding to 18-20 team conferences.

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54 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Our insiders are hearing B!G is not done, and could mean the end of the Pac (spoilering cuz it's $9.95 stuff and they really don't like finding their shit cut and pasted elsewhere)

  Reveal hidden contents

it’s highly likely the next development is for Washington and Oregon to join the Big Ten.

After that, things aren’t as certain. Probably ASU and Utah to the Big 12. The talk is Stanford could go independent.

The fate of Cal and Arizona is even less certain.

The Mountain West will probably pick up some of the remaining Pac-12.

The Pac-12 looks to not be long for this world — soon.

 

I wouldn't trust any B1G expansion rumors.  There were zero whispers or leaks about USC/UCLA joining.  No insider knew that was happening before it was announced.  I'd expect any further expansion to be similarly tight-lipped.

8 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Doesn't make sense to me at all, either.

People aren't going to care about Big 12 football, so you'd better be a basketball conference.  KU, Okie St, and Arizona are a damned good start on that.

I'm not so sure about that.  The Baylor/Oklahoma State CCG last year did pretty well in ratings.  Oklahoma State/TCU this weekend will be another data point for how much attention leftover Big 12 teams can get in a big game, though going up head to head with Alabama/Tennessee is rough.

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14 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

That last sentence is important. Without a new deal FOX has no reason to give up access to Texas or Oklahoma.  But if they strike a new deal/extension ESPN could easily give up future Big 12 inventory to FOX to make them whole for the early departures. But I don’t think ESPN wants to deal with placating FOX in order to give those too Texas/Oklahoma games to CBS.  They could buy out CBS but that seems like a bridge too far.

ESPN would have to increase their payout to the SEC, make a good deal with the new Big 12, placate FOX with 2 years worth of inventory trades, and buy the SEC rights for 2023 from CBS. It just seems like a bit too much.

Take CBS out of the picture, lower FOX’s inventory trade to a single year, and know that the Big 12’s leverage diminishes greatly after the 2024 season and 2024 seems like a more realistic departure.

I still think 2024 is likely. The B12's new deal will happen next year, which should line up during negotiations for early exit, particularly if B12 splits their rights again between ESPN and FOX. I would think the B12 will look for more than 2 media partners in the next round similar to what B1G did, except one of those providers will likely be a streamer unless somehow NBC or CBS wants to enter the fray. 

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1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Our insiders are hearing B!G is not done, and could mean the end of the Pac (spoilering cuz it's $9.95 stuff and they really don't like finding their shit cut and pasted elsewhere)

  Hide contents

it’s highly likely the next development is for Washington and Oregon to join the Big Ten.

After that, things aren’t as certain. Probably ASU and Utah to the Big 12. The talk is Stanford could go independent.

The fate of Cal and Arizona is even less certain.

The Mountain West will probably pick up some of the remaining Pac-12.

The Pac-12 looks to not be long for this world — soon.

 

Does Arizona not want join the Big 12? That is curious. 
 

Oregon doesn’t add shit to the Big Ten other than they’re a travel partner for the other 3 teams. 

I still think the Irate8 acted too rashly. They should have waited out the PAC demolition. I8 + 4 Corners is a pretty respectable football conference and they only have to split the pie 12 ways. 

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1 hour ago, Trojan Man said:

I'm not so sure about that.  The Baylor/Oklahoma State CCG last year did pretty well in ratings.  Oklahoma State/TCU this weekend will be another data point for how much attention leftover Big 12 teams can get in a big game, though going up head to head with Alabama/Tennessee is rough.

Would that CCG have done as well with viewers if it had been the CCG of Conference USA?

No one will give a shit about Big 12 football, Pac 12 football, or ACC football when this realignment is over.  After the SEC raids the ACC, there will be two superconferences of 20 to 24 teams each.  And all of the other conferences will be equally irrelevant.

The athletic departments in other conferences will have to try to survive by cashing a check as an OOC ass whipping for one of the big programs.  And a handful will turn a profit on basketball.  But I won't be surprised if quite a few universities scrap athletics altogether.  Their tv contracts will be shit and they won't be able to recruit anyone decent anyway.

You're looking at this year's Oklahoma State football ratings as some sort of harbinger of life after Texas and ou.  But they're not.  This year's Oklahoma State team would absolutely wipe its ass with Oklahoma State's football team 5 years from now.  They're going over a cliff and no one will watch them once they go splat.

Edited by TexArcher
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1 hour ago, bullet said:

The $55 million CBS contract still controls the 3:30 SEC time slot for one more year.  CBS isn't giving that up.  And without that change to the over $300 million ESPN contract, there's not much incentive to move in 2023.

I assume you’re agreeing with me since that’s what I said above, though I disagree with CBS not wanting to give up the SEC, I think they’d love to move on if they can do so while making money at the same time.

CBS just signed a deal with the Big Ten for over $300 million starting in 2023. If they can get ESPN pay even more than $300 million for the SEC’s final year then they essentially be getting a free year of content. Why talk up the SEC for another year just to see them go to ESPN.  It would be like fixing up your apartment when you know your lease is about to end.

If the only thing standing between UT/OU moving to the SEC in 2023 was CBS then that deal would already be done. But as I said before, ESPN would have to pay CBS and the SEC, FOX, and the Big 12 to make this happen which seems unlikely especially as time is winding down. 2024 seems far more likely.

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35 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Would that CCG have done as well with viewers if it had been the CCG of Conference USA?

No one will give a shit about Big 12 football, Pac 12 football, or ACC football when this realignment is over.  After the SEC raids the ACC, there will be two superconferences of 20 to 24 teams each.  And all of the other conferences will be equally irrelevant.

The athletic departments in other conferences will have to try to survive by cashing a check as an OOC ass whipping for one of the big programs.  And a handful will turn a profit on basketball.  But I won't be surprised if quite a few universities scrap athletics altogether.  Their tv contracts will be shit and they won't be able to recruit anyone decent anyway.

You're looking at this year's Oklahoma State football ratings as some sort of harbinger of life after Texas and ou.  But they're not.  This year's Oklahoma State team would absolutely wipe its ass with Oklahoma State's football team 5 years from now.  They're going over a cliff and no one will watch them once they go splat.

We're a long way off from 20-24 team conferences, long enough that it's useless to try to predict what that landscape will look like.  That won't happen until we're closer to the end of the ACC's GOR.  The B1G and SEC are waiting on that for their next feeding frenzy.

In the meantime I just don't see everyone else dying off once the B1G and SEC expand to 16 teams.  There are some hard limits money cannot change, namely scholarship numbers and playing time.  Texas won't be able to put more than 11 players on the field at a time and offer Oklahoma State's entire class in addition to their own class once they replace the Big 12 patch on their jersey with the SEC patch.  And it's not like Oklahoma State and Texas were drinking from the same well for the last 25 years anyways.  They picked over the next best recruits in Oklahoma and Texas after Oklahoma and Texas took the best available and they'll keep doing so after realignment.  They've built competitive rosters using that strategy.  It won't be invalidated just because Oklahoma and Texas, who have always had financial advantages over Oklahoma State for as long as they have fielded football teams, will have an even bigger financial advantage in a few years.  If the last decade taught you and I anything it's that throwing more and more money at a struggling football program doesn't necessarily fix it.

Even if annual NIL salaries blur the line between scholarship players and walk on players not all players will want to ride the bench for a B1G/SEC program when they can be The Guy at an ACC or Big 12 or Pac 12 program and still get developed for the NFL.  There will still be good coaches outside the B1G and SEC, which is a bigger ingredient for success than money.  We also have to keep in mind recruits are kids.  They won't have the same understanding us adults do who have been following the sport longer than they have been alive of how things can change in college football.  As an example, USC lost a very important 2022 LB recruit to Stanford because he didn't understand head coaches could be fired so he was upset when Helton lost his job.  He knew nothing about Oklahoma/Riley so he had no idea how much of an upgrade that would be or how accomplished USC's new coach was.  Some recruits will make conference affiliation a huge deal, some won't care or won't understand.  Then there's the playoff.  For both recruiting and fan interest the new playoff format guaranteeing 6 conference champion slots is a huge lifeline for schools outside the B1G/SEC.  November games with playoff implications in the post-UT/OU Big 12 will draw eyeballs.

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14 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I assume you’re agreeing with me since that’s what I said above, though I disagree with CBS not wanting to give up the SEC, I think they’d love to move on if they can do so while making money at the same time.

CBS just signed a deal with the Big Ten for over $300 million starting in 2023. If they can get ESPN pay even more than $300 million for the SEC’s final year then they essentially be getting a free year of content. Why talk up the SEC for another year just to see them go to ESPN.  It would be like fixing up your apartment when you know your lease is about to end.

If the only thing standing between UT/OU moving to the SEC in 2023 was CBS then that deal would already be done. But as I said before, ESPN would have to pay CBS and the SEC, FOX, and the Big 12 to make this happen which seems unlikely especially as time is winding down. 2024 seems far more likely.

The CBS 230 window will be interesting next year. I doubt CBS will give a single SEC team that window, opting instead for all Big Ten games. It makes sense given what they just bought. 

So does CBS move up some B team CBS Sports production crew and broadcast a Saturday Night SEC game? They are paying the SEC about $5 million dollars per game. Get ready for Ian Eagle to call the Bama - Tenessee game y'all!

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Our insiders are hearing B!G is not done, and could mean the end of the Pac (spoilering cuz it's $9.95 stuff and they really don't like finding their shit cut and pasted elsewhere)
 

Love the confidence that 9.95ers don’t know how to navigate a spoiler
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3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The CBS 230 window will be interesting next year. I doubt CBS will give a single SEC team that window, opting instead for all Big Ten games. It makes sense given what they just bought. 

So does CBS move up some B team CBS Sports production crew and broadcast a Saturday Night SEC game? They are paying the SEC about $5 million dollars per game. Get ready for Ian Eagle to call the Bama - Tenessee game y'all!

I’m not positive about this, but I thought the SEC had that time slot specially called out in their contract. CBS may downgrade them to the 2nd string broadcast team, but I don’t think they can take that spot from them.

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9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I’m not positive about this, but I thought the SEC had that time slot specially called out in their contract. CBS may downgrade them to the 2nd string broadcast team, but I don’t think they can take that spot from them.

Yes.  CBS is probably going to trade some games to NBC or Fox next year.  There are a few weeks where they don't have SEC games at 2:30.

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Just adding another article about FOX

FOX Blocking Oklahoma-Texas Early Exit From Big 12: Report

By:  Bryan Clinton     October 14, 2022

There have been rumors and speculation surrounding the timeline for Oklahoma and Texas’ departure from the Big 12 to the SEC.

We have heard everything from them joining the league in 2023, to definitely gone by 2024, and both athletic directors pledging to stay until 2025.

It appears that they might not have as much of a choice in the matter if FOX has anything to say about it. According to CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd and Chip Patterson, the move isn’t likely to happen prior to 2025 due to FOX losing major inventory in Oklahoma and Texas, since it doesn’t have rights to the SEC brand.

“Though there was a belief that Texas and Oklahoma may have been attempting to exit the Big 12 one year early in 2024, sources told Dodd that Fox would likely have demanded a return to make its future programming whole, including a top-tier selection of games years into the future given the marquee programs would have left its airwaves early. That’s beyond what would have been a potentially massive early exit fee the programs would have needed to pay the Big 12 directly.“

This report coincides with a report from Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger that announced the Big 12 is planning to adopt a new scheduling model in 2023 and 2024 that features no divisions and protects rivalries like Oklahoma vs. Texas.

The Big 12 is expected to continue with nine conference games and a conference championship that includes the top two teams in the league.

The two-year format is set up for each team to play all others at least once. The Big 12’s best rivalries are expected to be played both in 2023 and 2024. Those matchups are not yet official, according to Dellenger, but are likely to include Oklahoma-Texas, Oklahoma State-Oklahoma, Kansas-Kansas State, TCU-Baylor, and West Virginia-Cincinnati, with the latter being a regional match-up and ties back to the old Big East.

The Big 12 is expected to then drop to 12 teams for the start of the 2025 football season, although there is speculation the two could be gone in 2024. However, no matter what it looks like both teams will be in the Big 12 in 2023, as the SEC has already released its football schedule and it does not include Oklahoma or Texas.

The two schools will owe the Big 12 $80 million each when they leave the league, and to leave a year earlier would cost them an extra $100 million.

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9 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Might end up with a schedule one year minus two of Ok State, K State or TCU?  Might setup for a easy rout to the playoffs.  Just win and build more momentum heading into the SEC. 

That would be the only positive.  I would rather lose  games with Kansas, K State and Iowa State and at least play Cincy, UCF, BYU, and Cougar High at least once if we stick around until 2025.   Plus that might give us one more shot at play at Lubbock and we can go in there and make Tech eat crap.

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im not convinced yet, until there is some deal made the current plan is always going to be the end of contract 

 

what will be interesting is how they cut this up to give teams one last shot on our ways OUT 

Id imagine giving us home games with the new teams, so the old teams can take a good home field shot 

Away - Kstate, Tech , Baylor , TCU 
Home - Cinci , BYU  

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