Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
53 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Israel calling off the dogs, or sending the dogs in, isn't the play you have to worry about.

The only next military step left is a ground invasion, and Israel simply can't pull that off in force (sure, they could send in some special ops troops maybe, but they won't be able to accomplish the goals in play here).  Only one possible actor can....

91LZasjGUAL._UF894,1000_QL80_.jpg

 

 

I love the idea of a 70-ton Abrams rolling out the ocean onto a beach, and the water is deep enough for what looks like one or more large Navy ships in the background.  And the 70s-era Huey firing rockets towards the beach instead of a Cobra or Apache or A-10.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

image.thumb.png.6995285b2fc9803d4a1dec3a13d496be.png
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/early-us-intel-assessment-suggests-strikes-iran-did-not-destroy-nuclear-sites-2025-06-24/

WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - An early U.S. intelligence assessment indicated that the U.S. military strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities last week did not destroy the core components of Tehran's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three people briefed on it.
"This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong," CNN quoted White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying.

This story was broken by someone with a history of breaking high profiles stories that turn out to be disinfo. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Fuck You 6
  • Drool 1
Posted
7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I love the idea of a 70-ton Abrams rolling out the ocean onto a beach, and the water is deep enough for what looks like one or more large Navy ships in the background.  And the 70s-era Huey firing rockets towards the beach instead of a Cobra or Apache or A-10.

I mean....it's like you totally missed the eagle strapped with a gatling gun.  It's like I don't even know you, man.

  • Drool 1
Posted
16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump is whatever he needs to be for Trump. No more, no less. There is no ideology, outside of what is good for himself. 

 

I do not and will not understand how anyone still believes Trump has principles, beliefs or values outside of "Trump"

He doesn't care about the American people, this country or anyone but himself, making more money and showing up Barack Obama for making fun of him. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

I think @956 Worldwide's post yesterday is right. Iran's ability to both project force and to defend itself have been seriously impacted, their proxies they thought would help have shown themselves unreliable partners, as have Russia and China. The status quo isn't the same.

However, it seems that all we've accomplished is a small delay in their nuclear program. In exchange for that delay, we've made them much likelier to pursue a bomb ASAP, have essentially destroyed international nonproliferation, gave Russia and China some new info on the B-2's capabilities and shown them that our bunker busters may not get the job done.  Oh, and we've made it much likelier that Iran will be ruled by even more hardliners going forward.

You can see how Israel sees all of this as a victory for them. But it's hard to see how it's a victory for us.  

I agree with most of this except that I do not think that this shattered non-proliferation.  If Iran deploys a bomb, that will be more of a threat to non-proliferation than limited strikes against clearly defined nuclear targets. 
 

The question of B2 effectiveness is a bit of an open question.  China and Russia have a large, dispersed, three pillar deterrent and we know about it. There isn’t a critical hardened site like Fordow except for their actual strategic commands and if we are targeting those, the B2s are not deploying conventional weapons but are operating in their nuclear strike role.  It would be fascinating to “know what Russia and China knew” as this was taking place and that’s something that will be pure speculation. For Russia and China the capability of the strategic bomber and support package itself is more interesting than the performance of the MOP. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

This story was broken by someone with a history of breaking high profiles stories that turn out to be disinfo. 

source.gif

Remind me of the last Trump-related story that you were Helobius-like wrong on and then never came back to the thread?

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
10 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

image.thumb.png.404ec6ef9b6b0ca73a26c7c6f915133f.png
image.thumb.png.e29cf149db3c46e875851acfe0007b45.png

IMG-5840.jpg

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

source.gif

Remind me of the last Trump-related story that you were Helobius-like wrong on and then never came back to the thread?

I did actually. 
 

Anyway you can google the author, Natasha Bertrand. Comes up pretty quickly. She’s obviously a prominent mouthpiece for certain interests. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 2
  • Fuck You 7
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

Who to believe? A known drunkard who speaks in bold, absolutist language like this?

“Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it ALL — our bombing campaign OBLITERATED Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” [Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth] said. “Our MASSIVE bombs hit EXACTLY THE RIGHT SPOT at each target and worked PERFECTLY.”

Or these guys who are more cautious and careful with their language?

Despite claims of the sites’ obliteration by Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been more careful in describing the attack’s effects.

“This operation was designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure,” General Caine said that at the Sunday news conference.

The final battle damage assessment for the military operation against Iran, General Caine said on Sunday, standing next to Mr. Hegseth, was still to come. He said the initial assessment showed that all three sites “sustained severe damage and destruction.”

General Caine added that it was “way too early” to assess how much of Iran’s nuclear program remained.

Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former commander of Central Command, said in an interview, that he had “a lot of confidence in the weapons systems used.” But he added: “I’m not surprised that elements survived. That’s why you do battle damage assessments, because everything can go as planned but there are still other factors.”

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You get this information from the same source that told you the Trump voting, rabid anti-abortionist, radical evangelical church attending assassin of a democratic law maker and her husband, who also attempted to kill another democratic lawmaker, and who had a hit list of dozens of democrats and abortion providers was leftwing radical?

That wasn’t all known at the very beginning of that story. 
 

30 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

If they’re all trustworthy journalists with impeccable sources then it was a mistake to have Natasha break it. It casts doubt on it. 
 

20 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

So was this one:

bafkreiggflb4tlujfpiuoxbzbuiny2xgmat4dcy

Politicians lie all the time. Journalists are not supposed to. 

  • Haha 1
  • Fuck You 11
Posted
2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Iran's ability to both project force and to defend itself have been seriously impacted, their proxies they thought would help have shown themselves unreliable partners, as have Russia and China.

That or they're keeping their powder dry after recognizing the strikes for the farce that they were. I say wait at least a month after a major event before drawing any conclusions about victory, success, strength, or weakness. We've gone from "complete and total obliteration" to "minor setback" in a matter of hours. Not everything deserves an Israel-style overreaction.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
28 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

Politicians lie all the time. Journalists are not supposed to. 

Surely you've abandoned all of your sources who have repeatedly lied to you, then. Shirley.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I love the idea of a 70-ton Abrams rolling out the ocean onto a beach, and the water is deep enough for what looks like one or more large Navy ships in the background.  And the 70s-era Huey firing rockets towards the beach instead of a Cobra or Apache or A-10.

I, too, watched GI Joe as a child.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
57 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

That wasn’t all known at the very beginning of that story. 
 

If they’re all trustworthy journalists with impeccable sources then it was a mistake to have Natasha break it. It casts doubt on it. 
 

Politicians lie all the time. Journalists are not supposed to. 

You are right there. Sooo close. Keep following the logic and see where you end up.

  • Haha 1
Posted
9 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I haven't seen it mentioned, but Northrop Grumman says the B-2 has a capacity of >40,000lbs. Apparently six of them dropped 12 30,000lb bombs. I guess the >40,000lbs is accurate, but now our adversaries are probably wondering about the true capabilities of all our other assets. 

It was mentioned the morning after the strike, and the suggestion is that the published bomb load might be a space available problem and not an actual payload issue problem. 
 

I just hope none of the B2 pilots binged on Taco Bell before the mission brief or Operation Mid Flight Hammer may have gone down.  

Posted
5 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

I think even the laymen can look at the picture of the facilities bombed by the US and understand that none of them are going to be up and humming in 30-60 days even if it’s just a matter of digging out the tunnels leading to allegedly unharmed delicate nuclear facilities. 
 

If that assessment is true then Iran already has the fuel on hand, is working to create the nuclear device itself and the suggestion that they are/were very close to having a working weapon is valid.
 

Trump claims total destruction. Unnamed sources alleged to be familiar with the damage assessment say 30 days to the status quo. It would be wise to split the difference and suggest that total destruction did not occur, but that their program has been knocked on it’s ass for some time to come.  
 

Again, activity around those sites in the comes days and weeks will be very revealing about the destruction involved, and first blush leaked battle assessments for the purpose of grabbing headlines won’t be needed. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted
35 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

I think even the laymen can look at the picture of the facilities bombed by the US and understand that none of them are going to be up and humming in 30-60 days even if it’s just a matter of digging out the tunnels leading to allegedly unharmed delicate nuclear facilities. 
 

If that assessment is true then Iran already has the fuel on hand, is working to create the nuclear device itself and the suggestion that they are/were very close to having a working weapon is valid.
 

Trump claims total destruction. Unnamed sources alleged to be familiar with the damage assessment say 30 days to the status quo. It would be wise to split the difference and suggest that total destruction did not occur, but that their program has been knocked on it’s ass for some time to come.  
 

Again, activity around those sites in the comes days and weeks will be very revealing about the destruction involved, and first blush leaked battle assessments for the purpose of grabbing headlines won’t be needed. 

Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.  

That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.  

Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
25 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.  

Will be a while before the full picture emerges and also we will likely need them to first dig out and then do collection to confirm the condition of centrifuges and where/whether some of them were moved. 
 

A single DIA assessment that leaked this early deserves massive grains of salt. Its a real fucking terrible problem that the highest levels of the admin have announced what they want to hear from future analyses.  That will poison the process. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.  

Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack. 

I'm not sure whether you read the NYTimes article link that was posted above bor what is being reported in other outlets, including cable news, so I'm posting a relevant passage from it where there'sa little more detail:

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute.

But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job.

I definitely recall reading last week that experts believed it would take several waves of bombings to get the job done. Hopefully, those assessments were wrong, but this maybe wasn't sufficient. Plus, if a lot of the stuff was moved, then well I don't know.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
16 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.  

Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack. 

Oh, I don't think we were necessarily aiming for a vent shaft or anything like that. But we were definitely aiming to have each pair of bombs follow the other to maximize the overall penetration. 

Posted

What if they bombed them with less than reported MOPs and then sprinkled in more of the smaller ordinance. Now they are awaiting them to dig some shit up before unleashing more MOPs?  Nono I am regarded. They absolutely telegraphed their move and then failed. Fuck me, we used to be great. Before the adults were in charge.

/giving waaayyy too much credit to their mental capacity

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

What if they bombed them with less than reported MOPs and then sprinkled in more of the smaller ordinance. Now they are awaiting them to dig some shit up before unleashing more MOPs?  Nono I am regarded. They absolutely telegraphed their move and then failed. Fuck me, we used to be great. Before the adults were in charge.

/giving waaayyy too much credit to their mental capacity

 

I don't think it is fair to call it a failure even if it didn't result in complete destruction of the facility. I also don't know what the purpose of randomly dropping smaller bombs are dirt would be. By all accounts, this was an extraordinary tactical success and a well coordinated strike. I doubt any of the military planners seriously expected there to be a high chance of complete destruction of the facility. 

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm not sure whether you read the NYTimes article link that was posted above bor what is being reported in other outlets, including cable news, so I'm posting a relevant passage from it where there'sa little more detail:

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute.

But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job.

I definitely recall reading last week that experts believed it would take several waves of bombings to get the job done. Hopefully, those assessments were wrong, but this maybe wasn't sufficient. Plus, if a lot of the stuff was moved, then well I don't know.

I just take it as a fact that as assuredly as Trump will claim total victory that a news outlet will find someone to say we barley scratched their anchor. 
 

The MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. It doesn’t explode until it comes to a stop. No mean feat of engineering imoho. So 6 in a row isn’t nothing. I am curious as to how much those holes filling back in after the blast mitigated the penetration of the next bomb. 

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Oh, I don't think we were necessarily aiming for a vent shaft or anything like that. But we were definitely aiming to have each pair of bombs follow the other to maximize the overall penetration. 

They were definitely aiming for ventilation shafts. And hit them repeatedly. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

The MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. It doesn’t explode until it comes to a stop. No mean feat of engineering imoho. So 6 in a row isn’t nothing. I am curious as to how much those holes filling back in after the blast mitigated the penetration of the next bomb. 

12 in a row. 6 holes, 2 MOPS each plus one or two more at Natanz. Again, very impressive execution.  But, to be clear,  the public penetration rating for them is 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Being able to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete would be absolutely bonkers. And the MOP definitely can't do that. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I haven't seen it mentioned, but Northrop Grumman says the B-2 has a capacity of >40,000lbs. Apparently six of them dropped 12 30,000lb bombs. I guess the >40,000lbs is accurate, but now our adversaries are probably wondering about the true capabilities of all our other assets. 

The MOP entered service (2010s) well after the B2 and was basically designed for the Iran problem.  It was always intended to be integrated with the B2 although B-52s have dropped it in testing.

Actual information about the B2 payload is highly classified but the 40k number you read is likely not a weight constraint on the airframe but a constraint on how many munitions of the type in existence at the B2s service entry will fit inside the internal bomb racks. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

12 in a row. 6 holes, 2 MOPS each plus one or two more at Natanz. Again, very impressive execution.  But, to be clear,  the public penetration rating for them is 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Being able to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete would be absolutely bonkers. And the MOP definitely can't do that. 

I misunderstood. I thought it was 6 down two ventilation shafts. 
 

The JTAC told me 200 feet of reinforced concrete. He either revealed something he shouldn’t have or conflated numbers after being out of the service for a while. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
5 hours ago, burnt beanz said:

A lot of Steele dossier stuff. 
Hunter laptop labeling as disinformation by former intel leaders. 

What the former Intel leaders said was that a mysterious laptop, with no digital forensic chain of custody, shows up with a bunch of embarrassing, but not criminally inculpatory information on it has the earmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign.

They were, ultimately, wrong.  Unlike Fox News and election disinfo and half the other shit they spew, they did not know they were wrong ahead of time and spew it anyway.

The only people that knew the Steele Dossier was bullshit were Steele and I guess some of his sources.  People were credulous of it, but, again, unlike Fox News, they didn't KNOW it was bullshit before they started spewing.

What Fox News routinely does is disinformation, intentionally wrong information.  The rest is just being conventionally wrong, something Fox rarely admits to.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 2
Posted
6 hours ago, Hitch said:

Maybe. Either way, he seems to want Peace Prize and that’s a good thing. 

Trump wants peace because he thinks it will make him popular.  If he thought blowing lots of shit up would make him popular, he'd do that instead.  In fact, that's exactly what happened here.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Trump wants peace because he thinks it will make him popular.  If he thought blowing lots of shit up would make him popular, he'd do that instead.  In fact, that's exactly what happened here.

It wasn’t a discussion about his motivation. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Hitch said:

It wasn’t a discussion about his motivation. 

But it needs to be, because his motivation is always changing. Saying "he wants peace" is BS, it's a flickering moment for a man who flips and flops on everything. 

Posted
5 hours ago, burnt beanz said:

A lot of Steele dossier stuff. 
Hunter laptop labeling as disinformation by former intel leaders. 

The cabal is too busy negging to care about facts anyway. You’ll never change these people- just hope that surly is not the majority of this country. 

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
12 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

The cabal is too busy negging to care about facts anyway. You’ll never change these people- just hope that surly is not the majority of this country. 

You have a funny definition of facts, what you call facts I call irrelevant conspiracy theories.

Not to mention nobody cares about the HB laptop or the quick conclusions RETIRED people reached, not even the current GOP does because it was a dumbass conspiracy theory.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

12 in a row. 6 holes, 2 MOPS each plus one or two more at Natanz. Again, very impressive execution.  But, to be clear,  the public penetration rating for them is 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Being able to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete would be absolutely bonkers. And the MOP definitely can't do that. 

It's not that impressive, I used to bullseye womprats in my T-16 back home

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 2
Posted
54 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

The cabal is too busy negging to care about facts anyway. You’ll never change these people- just hope that surly is not the majority of this country. 

Negged

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...