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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

What? No, not entirely, my point was you offered the "they hate us cuz they ain't us" take without bothering to offer any historical context at all.

5 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Fuck sake.

Over the last 40 years has:

The current Iranian Regime been closely aligned with Russia?

Was there a cold war between Russia and the US during a large portion of that time?

Are there still current tensions between the US and Russia?

Has Iran, during the last 40 years attacked the US via proxies multiple times? 

Does the current Iranian regime believe that Israel, the US, Christianity and religious freedom should cease to exist?

Do you believe the actions by the US in Iran prior to 1979 is 100% to blame for 100% of the attacks via proxies by Iran on the US? 

I said:

Because they believe Israel and honestly Jews, Christians and religious freedom, should not exist, and the US supports those in various ways. Add to it they've been in bed with Russia since inception. Yeah... I wonder why too.

All of this started when you responded to someone "Gee I wonder why" when they noted that Iran has been attacking us via proxies for 40 years.

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Posted
1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

I said:

Because they believe Israel and honestly Jews, Christians and religious freedom, should not exist, and the US supports those in various ways. Add to it they've been in bed with Russia since inception. Yeah... I wonder why too.

All of this started when you responded to someone "Gee I wonder why" when they noted that Iran has been attacking us via proxies for 40 years.

I understand, I'm not saying what you said isn't true of the mullahs. I'm saying it leaves out a lot of historical context of why Iran is the way it is today and our role in that. I don't understand why so many Americans are so allergic to any level of accountability.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

To say part of the hate isn’t religious/clan based that’s been going on forever is kinda idiotic.  Yea there’s a lot more going on and has been political wise but the root of it is that and the regime has pretty much said as much.  

Part of it, sure, but Iran and Israel have no real reason to be adversaries beyond the extremists in charge of both sides.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I understand, I'm not saying what you said isn't true of the mullahs. I'm saying it leaves out a lot of historical context of why Iran is the way it is today and our role in that. I don't understand why so many Americans are so allergic to any level of accountability.

So you think over simplification of the Iranian/US history in relation to where those relations stand today is bad practice? 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Part of it, sure, but Iran and Israel have no real reason to be adversaries beyond the extremists in charge of both sides.

Well there you go….  A well known chant of Israel isn’t death to multiple countries that they try to teach their children.  Also getting off the topic of the actual topic of the current reasons and more to root issues at this point. 

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

So you think over simplification of the Iranian/US history in relation to where those relations stand today is bad practice? 

Yes no maybe I'm not sure

Just now, Hook1997 said:

Well there you go….  A well known chant of Israel isn’t death to multiple countries that they try to teach their children.  Also getting off the topic of the actual topic of the current reasons and more to root issues at this point. 

Perhaps you should look up the Likud charter.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

The good thing is in all three of those cases it brought as close to the violence, am I right?

I would say destabilizing Iraq really fucked up the Middle East for quite a while and got a lot of American troops and even more civilians killed. There's that little ISIS group that some of us remember.

Libya has been a complete shitshow since Gaddafi was Nowthis'd.

Edited by atomheartbevo
Posted
1 hour ago, Herbie Hancock said:

That was 100% written by an Army gomer. If it had been a Navy nerd it would have been signed “Very Respectfully”. I have many years worth of work emails from guys I’ve never met in person, but I can tell you with absolute certainty what branch they served in based on their email signature.

How the fuck did the Marines make email signatures out of crayons?

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Posted
Just now, Hank_Hill said:

The concept of someone thinking Iran and Israel leadership are both shitstains really bottles Rexys mind

Or that this was kicked off in part because a bunch of Orthodox Jews were about to help boot Netanyahu's group out of power because they didn't want their sons drafted into the IDF.

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Posted

No matter what happens now, I honestly don’t think America puts any material or significant troops on the ground. Beyond the fact we will never see warfare fought like Iraq I, Afghanistan or Iraq II due to autonomous lethal warfare (Anduril palantir and now meta), this isn’t something we care about enough if nuclear is off the table.

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Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Jimbo's agent conveyed to Texas A&M through back-channel discussions that his recruiting misses would be contained, and that no further losing seasons were planned going forward, according to officials who posted on TexAgs

Jimbo's ex-wife conveyed to the Florida State men's tennis team, and the Florida State wide receiver corps, through back-door channels, that things needed to be contained, or that no further marital seasons with Jimbo would be planned going forward.

Posted
24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I would say destabilizing Iraq really fucked up the Middle East for quite a while and got a lot of American troops and even more civilians killed. There's that little ISIS group that some of us remember.

Libya has been a complete shitshow since Gaddafi was Nowthis'd.

I don't know if I can find it but there's an interview of some bald headed general about the time we were supposed to believe there was uranium cake in Iraq explaining why this effort to destabilize Iraq was a bad idea. 

He's probably pushing up daisies now. He would have been fired or ignored in all this anyway.

I'm far more than skeptical that we did anything more than throw money out of airplanes and submarines. 

Posted

CNN is now reporting that 6 B-2A “Spirit” Long-Range Stealth Bombers with the U.S. Air Force dropped a total of 12, not 6, GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) 30,000lb “Bunker Buster” Bombs on the Fordow Nuclear Facility in Central Iran. In addition, U.S. Navy submarines fired 30 BGM-109 “Tomahawk” Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs) at two other sites, Natanz and Isfahan, and a B-2 dropped two more GBU-57 “Bunker Busters” on Natanz, a U.S. official said.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

We aren't going to war. We are bombing Iran from afar and letting Israel put boots on the ground and die in that manner.

If this is truly contained, and we did truly obliterate (taking both statements with a bath tub of salt), then this was an amazing and awesome military exercise and America, the region (specifically Israel) and the world is better for it.

Yep. Someone has to go in and verify, won't be us. If it is, well we got the right people. 

 

 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

No matter what happens now, I honestly don’t think America puts any material or significant troops on the ground. Beyond the fact we will never see warfare fought like Iraq I, Afghanistan or Iraq II due to autonomous lethal warfare (Anduril palantir and now meta), this isn’t something we care about enough if nuclear is off the table.

The United States doesn't get to decide how things play out now - we just get to hope Iran does nothing.  Because Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and they are better equipped and better trained than the Houthi.  They could launch a bunch of missiles and drones at American bases across the Gulf, bases that do not have Israel's Iron Dome, and we better hope our AD folks are ready and have everything they need at all of those bases. We have American forces in a lot of bases around the Persian Gulf, and in many cases, it would be easy for the Iranian intelligence to have eyes on them, given their locations.

Speaking of autonomous warfare, they could flood the Gulf with drones - regardless of how much Ukraine has been supplied with decent Western air defenses, Russia is still overwhelming/getting through them, and there's a fuckton of ships that pass through the Strait that don't have much more than AK's or PKMs to ward off pirates. 

And you can say "well not if the US Navy has anything to say about it" and yeah, what happens when the US Navy is operating in extremely close quarters in the area of the Strait, with lots of Iranian drones/missiles within range?  We have the best fucking navy in the world and second place is not even close, but what happens when we get the 2025 version of the HMS Sheffield sunk or a USS Cole with a hole blown in the side? You think Trump can back down from that? Hell no, he will only escalate things, and boots on the ground would not be out of the question.

And if you're Iran, you've probably already moved the good stuff out of Fordow and the other locations, to locations that have never seen an international inspection. I wouldn't be surprised if we bombed empty locations.

And the Iranian leadership will have to respond - any major sign of weakness and the population could easily pop off.

It may not be Pandor's Box, but we have no idea how this is going to play out, or how many Americans will end up dead or where our military involvement will stop.

If Trump conveyed to the Iranians that this was a limited strike, that was an extremely dumbfuck thing to do, because you never tell your enemies where you plan on stopping. The Iranians could strike back at US forces and dare Trump to ramp things up knowing his base would not be pleased.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

CNN is now reporting that 6 B-2A “Spirit” Long-Range Stealth Bombers with the U.S. Air Force dropped a total of 12, not 6, GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) 30,000lb “Bunker Buster” Bombs on the Fordow Nuclear Facility in Central Iran. In addition, U.S. Navy submarines fired 30 BGM-109 “Tomahawk” Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs) at two other sites, Natanz and Isfahan, and a B-2 dropped two more GBU-57 “Bunker Busters” on Natanz, a U.S. official said.

Each B2 can carry two, so that tracks. One of the big knocks against the B21 is that it's basically half a B2 - they can only carry one MOP

Posted

All these people celebrating this didn't give two shits about Iran's nuclear capabilities two weeks ago. They only started caring because they were told to.

Fingers crossed that this goes no farther (further!).

And I'm hoping that influential people in the US will shut the fuck up about regime change, because if we make the Iranians think that we are going to make that happen, they have nothing to lose.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And the Iranian leadership will have to respond - any major sign of weakness and the population could easily pop off.

Yeah this is the kicker. They absolutely have to respond, they have no choice. And we're going to be the targets this time.

Posted

Iran seems to be pretty goddamn isolated right now.  I couldn't find any reaction from China which seems weird.  I don't think even Putin has said anything yet.  Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it seems like they would have at least condemned the bombing by now.   

Posted
3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Iran seems to be pretty goddamn isolated right now.  I couldn't find any reaction from China which seems weird.  I don't think even Putin has said anything yet.  Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it seems like they would have at least condemned the bombing by now.   

 

iran / yeman / houthis 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

The stated bomb load of a B-2 is 40k lbs so either CNN is wrong or we’ve been sandbagging what it can carry. 

40k lbs of MK 84s is less dense than 60k lbs of MOB, so both could be true.

Posted
11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

All these people celebrating this didn't give two shits about Iran's nuclear capabilities two weeks ago. They only started caring because they were told to.

Fingers crossed that this goes no farther (further!).

And I'm hoping that influential people in the US will shut the fuck up about regime change, because if we make the Iranians think that we are going to make that happen, they have nothing to lose.

1- Agree. Few were tracking. 

2- It will. 

3- that is the end goal. No matter what the Clerics have nothing to lose. Allow them to remain, well this is going to happen again in 10 years. 

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Posted (edited)

Iran's most likely course of action is an asymmetric attack on soft American targets, not military action. It is highly unlikely they will simply not respond.

This isn't the off ramp.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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Posted
Just now, Thetexashammer said:

Iran's most likely course of action is an asymmetric attack on soft American targets, not military action. It is highly unlikely they will simply not respond. 

wwe's night of champions is in riyadh next weekend. 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The United States doesn't get to decide how things play out now - we just get to hope Iran does nothing.  Because Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and they are better equipped and better trained than the Houthi. 

This is an interesting divergence to how you view other conflicts. Suddenly the US is feckless.

 

In Ukraine, all it would take Is more US proxy support for Ukraine to easily beat Russia, a country with nukes. 
 

In Iran, we use our superior forces to directly strike Iran, an inferior power that has been massively wounded, and you’re like wow I guess we’ll see what happens. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Iran's most likely course of action is an asymmetric attack on soft American targets, not military action. It is highly unlikely they will simply not respond.

This isn't the off ramp.

We are likely looking at - and being fully prepared (hard to do) for that.  Calculated risk.

Posted
18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And if you're Iran, you've probably already moved the good stuff out of Fordow and the other locations, to locations that have never seen an international inspection. I wouldn't be surprised if we bombed empty locations.

Great fucking post! I'm only quoting this part to avoid longcatting, but I was watching a bit of BBC earlier, and Iran had said earlier they'd moved all their material out of those sites as part of a statement that there was no danger of radioactive fallout. No telling where all that shit went, or will go, or eventually into whose hands should the Regime collapse.

 

10 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

The stated bomb load of a B-2 is 40k lbs so either CNN is wrong or we’ve been sandbagging what it can carry. 

Not just CNN, they reported the same on BBC.

 

2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

40k lbs of MK 84s is less dense than 60k lbs of MOB, so both could be true.

Chevy Chase GIF - Chevy Chase No - Discover & Share GIFs

 

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

3 - that is the end goal. No matter what the Clerics have nothing to lose. Allow them to remain, well this is going to happen again in 10 years. 

If the mullahs are gone, the IGRC will fight to stay in power. Are those guys secular or true believers, and wouldn't they also develop a bomb, too? 

Genuine questions, as I'm wholly ignorant on the matter.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Great fucking post! I'm only quoting this part to avoid longcatting, but I was watching a bit of BBC earlier, and Iran had said earlier they'd moved all their material out of those sites as part of a statement that there was no danger of radioactive fallout. No telling where all that shit went, or will go, or eventually into whose hands should the Regime collapse.

 

Not just CNN, they reported the same on BBC.

 

Chevy Chase GIF - Chevy Chase No - Discover & Share GIFs

 

If the mullahs are gone, the IGRC will fight to stay in power. Are those guys secular or true believers, and wouldn't they also develop a bomb, too? 

Genuine questions, as I'm wholly ignorant on the matter.

Will OU always suck? 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Keyah said:

This is an interesting divergence to how you view other conflicts. Suddenly the US is feckless.

 

In Ukraine, all it would take Is more US proxy support for Ukraine to easily beat Russia, a country with nukes. 
 

In Iran, we use our superior forces to directly strike Iran, an inferior power that has been massively wounded, and you’re like wow I guess we’ll see what happens. 

image.gif.828a62143c862cc2872650eeb81d5652.gif

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Will OU always suck? 

until the heat death of the universe

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Keyah said:

This is an interesting divergence to how you view other conflicts. Suddenly the US is feckless.

 

In Ukraine, all it would take Is more US proxy support for Ukraine to easily beat Russia, a country with nukes. 
 

In Iran, we use our superior forces to directly strike Iran, an inferior power that has been massively wounded, and you’re like wow I guess we’ll see what happens. 

Feckless? Mother fucker, this is surly, we don't know that word. So please go away. 

Just now, elfenix said:

image.gif.828a62143c862cc2872650eeb81d5652.gif

until the heat death of the universe

My brother. Or sister, Don't care. I will make you tacos. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Hate said:

Iran seems to be pretty goddamn isolated right now.  I couldn't find any reaction from China which seems weird.  I don't think even Putin has said anything yet.  Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it seems like they would have at least condemned the bombing by now.   

I think this is right. Hamas is decimated; Hezbollah is neutered; the Houthis are toothless; and Russia's a bit tied up at the moment. Ain't no way China will stick their necks out on this, plus as has been mentioned, they just want the oil to keep flowing. They would probably be perfectly happy with whichever IRGC strongman is still left to take over. I can't imagine they'd want to see a big civil war in Iran that might disrupt that flow, so it'll be interesting if they stay on the sidelines and hope for the best like the rest of us.

Posted
2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think this is right. Hamas is decimated; Hezbollah is neutered; the Houthis are toothless; and Russia's a bit tied up at the moment. Ain't no way China will stick their necks out on this, plus as has been mentioned, they just want the oil to keep flowing. They would probably be perfectly happy with whichever IRGC strongman is still left to take over. I can't imagine they'd want to see a big civil war in Iran that might disrupt that flow, so it'll be interesting if they stay on the sidelines and hope for the best like the rest of us.

Please see one of my earlier posts where I responded to you. Was a few days ago. Sorry, been busy. Took a nap, wake up and we are at war again. 

We will take over oil and gas. I do not think Trump will give up control of oil and gas. China is, well, kind of fucked. 

If there is a Strongman left, he will be ours. This shit is not over folks. 

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Posted

Does this  appear to be a once in a lifetime opportunity where the world is aligned and there is a way out for everyone but the Mullahs and the Ayatollah. All of Iran's proxies have been neutered or risk the chance of complete destruction if they respond.  Russia can't do shit and even China is kind of limited as they won't go to war for Iran.  I could be completely wrong and I am sure I am being way over simplistic, but I don't really see a way out for Iran's leadership at the moment. Please someone tell me where I am wrong. 

Posted
Just now, Hate said:

Does this  appear to be a once in a lifetime opportunity where the world is aligned and there is a way out for everyone but the Mullahs and the Ayatollah. All of Iran's proxies have been neutered or risk the chance of complete destruction if they respond.  Russia can't do shit and even China is kind of limited as they won't go to war for Iran.  I could be completely wrong and I am sure I am being way over simplistic, but I don't really see a way out for Iran's leadership at the moment. Please someone tell me where I am wrong. 

Yes, there is. See you are dealing with true believers. Think aggy. They can regroup in the mountains with their sheep and next year they can win. 

Don't overthink.

If the regime leaves Tehran it does not mean they are not the "regime" and that is my concern. They are cool with end of days. The are fighting a holy war. 

 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think this is right. Hamas is decimated; Hezbollah is neutered; the Houthis are toothless; and Russia's a bit tied up at the moment. Ain't no way China will stick their necks out on this, plus as has been mentioned, they just want the oil to keep flowing. They would probably be perfectly happy with whichever IRGC strongman is still left to take over. I can't imagine they'd want to see a big civil war in Iran that might disrupt that flow, so it'll be interesting if they stay on the sidelines and hope for the best like the rest of us.

So perfect timing.

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hate said:

Does this  appear to be a once in a lifetime opportunity where the world is aligned and there is a way out for everyone but the Mullahs and the Ayatollah. All of Iran's proxies have been neutered or risk the chance of complete destruction if they respond.  Russia can't do shit and even China is kind of limited as they won't go to war for Iran.  I could be completely wrong and I am sure I am being way over simplistic, but I don't really see a way out for Iran's leadership at the moment. Please someone tell me where I am wrong. 

 

As someone with no special insight, I tend to agree that their days seem numbered. It really depends, I think, on whether anyone with influence remains in leadership in the IGRC. If not, then they might hang with the mullahs. Either way, they're really more of an occupying power than an offensive military. That's why they work through proxies throughout the region. In other words, my impression is that their job is oppression.

So, then what do the people do?

  • Urban, secular, pro-Western moderates would either want democracy or just some sane stability, opening to a compromise with any potential strongman (see inka's post above).
  • Then, you've got the crazy religious people, who might be even worse than the mullahs. Do they capture the hearts of the rural, religious rubes?
  • Of course, there's also many ethnic minority groups: Baluchis, Azeris, Turks, Kurds, etc. who might want to break away.

No fucking idea what's going to happen beyond more rockets being fired into Israel.

Edited by bolverk
Posted
44 minutes ago, Hate said:

Iran seems to be pretty goddamn isolated right now.  I couldn't find any reaction from China which seems weird.  I don't think even Putin has said anything yet.  Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it seems like they would have at least condemned the bombing by now.   

Putin might like higher oil prices.  China definitely won't and who knows what they are doing, but I'm sure they are trying to cool things down through back-channels.

Posted
3 hours ago, Frank Drebin said:

Fuck that.  They have been attacking us through proxies for 40 years.  Trump is doing exactly what should be done.  

A war with Iran is just the excuse he needs to clamp down on any domestic dissent.  Any anti war protests will be crushed by the military.

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