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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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4 hours ago, Red Five said:

That you don't know what a 0.0% chance means? I wouldn't bet on Oklahoma St winning this weekend but if someone said they have a 0.0% chance of winning I would mock them.

I like your photo of Sark.  Right now he is all hat AND all cattle!

14 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

he will be traded to FSU for a horse and a spear.

That's nativist!

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1 hour ago, Pam Cummings said:

Me too. I keep hearing people say "Oregon would beat up on FSU if they played". Based on what? The backup settled in and played a nice game against Florida.

 

We have an actual real life example of a team winning it all on their 3rd string QB but we wanna leave an undefeated team out of the final 4 because one guy got hurt? Fuck everything about that. They beat Louisville, they earned it.

settled in?

image.png.6b31934c9213b64ff3816d61d2306776.png

settled in?!

FSU was 8th percentile on yards per play, 15th percentile on success rate,  29th percentile on yards/dropback, and 19th percentile on 3rd down success rate.

Texas lost a game in 2014 to KSU 23-0. Tyrone Swoopes went 13/25 for 106 yards and he STILL had a higher QBR (46.8) than Rodemaker did.

Rodemaker was terrible in that game and FSU was incredibly lucky that they were playing FEI's #75 defense. now they have Louisville who is #21 next and is a significantly better defense.

...he was 5/12 for 62 yards in the 2nd half.

he absolutely did not "settle in"

 

Edited by NoName
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Me too. I keep hearing people say "Oregon would beat up on FSU if they played". Based on what? The backup settled in and played a nice game against Florida.
 
We have an actual real life example of a team winning it all on their 3rd string QB but we wanna leave an undefeated team out of the final 4 because one guy got hurt? Fuck everything about that. They beat Louisville, they earned it.
I have zero love for the Noles, but this is correct. You simply can't leave an undefeated P5 conference champ out of the playoffs no matter how they got there or who is injured.
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In a year where 8 teams have a legit argument to be in the top 4, the driving factor for the committee will be c.y.a. pure and simple. In other words, they will go with the only defensible rankings:

a) undefeated P5 teams are in

b) 1-loss conference champions are in over any other 1-loss teams

The committee will catch so much heat if they put in a non conference champion over a conference champion. This means that with an Iowa or Louisville win, TX is in. (And TX should be in with an Oregon win but I don't think we will jump Oregon). I think the only fuckery that could occur is with a Bama win -- in that case I think Bama jumps us because they are not leaving out the SEC champ.

Any other scenarios aren't worth the mental energy

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2 minutes ago, immamac said:

IMO if this happens then Texas is in, Oregon is in, Alabama is in and Georgia or Ohio State get in. 

Georgia; while they would want a B10 team it would be impossible to justify either OSU or Michigan. Putting the defending national champs in is easy to justify

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6 minutes ago, NoName said:

settled in?

image.png.6b31934c9213b64ff3816d61d2306776.png

settled in?!

FSU was 8th percentile on yards per play, 15th percentile on success rate,  29th percentile on yards/dropback, and 19th percentile on 3rd down success rate.

Texas lost a game in 2014 to KSU 23-0. Tyrone Swoopes went 13/25 for 106 yards and he STILL had a higher QBR (46.8) than Rodemaker did.

Rodemaker was terrible in that game and FSU was incredibly lucky that they were playing FEI's #75 defense. now they have Louisville who is #21 next and is a significantly better defense.

he was 5/12 for 62 yards in the 2nd half.

he absolutely did not "settle in"

 

Dude, you can break down the backup QB all you want. He's a backup QB in his first game. It was a rivalry game. They won. Who cares.

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think it's more the idea the motivation to beat an Ohio State, Michigan, USC, etc. in non-conf brings a team together in the offseason more than "ho hum, ULM, UTSA and UTEP" 

That hasn't been the case for UO, UM, UW, or UGA this year & I don't think it's going to make a shit most years. Walk onto the field and beat a cream puff by 30 and stay healthy for conference play. You give yourself 2 "whoops" conference games a year, maybe 3 depending on how the year works out. If they're going to punish teams for losing tough OOC games but not reward them accordingly for winning them, then there's no reason to schedule them anymore. Making the playoffs is all that's going to matter going forward & it won't take long for the marquee OOC games to fall by the wayside.

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7 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Dude, you can break down the backup QB all you want. He's a backup QB in his first game. It was a rivalry game. They won. Who cares.

there is a huge difference between "he won a rivalry game" and "he settled in" - come on.

they won, they got super lucky basically across the board and now play a much better team.

 

good luck.

2 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Yes, me too. I was simply making a point that we've seen a team win it all with a backup QB. Dude jumped down my throat over the verbiage i used to say he played well enough to get them the win.

the backup QBs who have won it all historically - and how many of them have there been really and truly - all were significantly better than Tat Rodemaker

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16 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

My concern is that the committee has filled in their brackets in with a Sharpie.

Georgia, Michigan, PAC Champion, and SEC Champion. 
 

Georgia has wins over Number 9 Mizzou and Number 11 Ole Miss. Pretty good resume. Plenty of precedent for SEC runner up/second best team to make the CFP. 
 

Bama would have the best win of the year if they beat Georgia, and they’d be the Sec Champs. 

In the committee’s opinion, Michigan has the best current win over Ohio State. I don’t think they’ll lose to Iowa, but I also think it might not matter except for seeding. 
 

I think the committee is praying for Michigan to win, Louisville to win, and especially praying for Georgia to beat Bama to avoid some difficult explanations. 

Nah,

if Bama beats UGA then UT will have the best win to that point in the season, or possibly UW if Oregon wins and stays ahead of Bama.  Because Bama will be ranked higher than UGA, and rightly so.  

End of season rankings are far, far more accurate than anything else, otherwise you would have to give App St credit for beating #6 Aggie last year who was actually a 5-7 team.  
 

Similarly, if Bama loses it’s disingenuous to proclaim we beat the #3 team in the country after all the games have been played.   Right now our best win is against #8, subject to change based upon this weekends results.  
 

TLDR, pre-season rankings are stupid, the more data the more accurate the rankings. 

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12 minutes ago, immamac said:

IMO if this happens then Texas is in, Oregon is in, Alabama is in and Georgia or Ohio State get in. 

and ironically is one of the few ways we end up ahead of Oregon (in order to avoid first round rematches). 

 

10 minutes ago, BB65 said:

I would think Michigan before Ohio State due to H2H

phbt no way does Michigan get in if they lose to pathetic Iowa. It would be one of the biggest upsets (and most hilarious) in recent college football history.

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2 hours ago, immamac said:

 

Someone edit this to show me how Texas makes the playoff without Oregon with an Oregon win in the P12CCG. 

Not sure if anyone responded as I can’t keep up with the thread. Klatt believes that it is a possibility that if Bama wins and all else is chalk you could see a Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Bama final 4, which is what he would do if you are truly looking for the four best teams. Overall he thinks Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and Texas would be the right call if this weekend is all chalk. Same with Cowherd.  Growing sentiment behind leaving out a 13-0 FSU if you are truly looking at the 4 best teams. I don’t think it happens but it’s gaining traction.

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39 minutes ago, texastough said:

In a year where 8 teams have a legit argument to be in the top 4, the driving factor for the committee will be c.y.a. pure and simple. In other words, they will go with the only defensible rankings:

a) undefeated P5 teams are in

b) 1-loss conference champions are in over any other 1-loss teams

The committee will catch so much heat if they put in a non conference champion over a conference champion. This means that with an Iowa or Louisville win, TX is in. (And TX should be in with an Oregon win but I don't think we will jump Oregon). I think the only fuckery that could occur is with a Bama win -- in that case I think Bama jumps us because they are not leaving out the SEC champ.

Any other scenarios aren't worth the mental energy

LOL -- Bama is NOT jumping Texas in a 1-v-1 situation if they're both conference champs

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32 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

The fact that OU played no one in nonconference and we played Bama, meant they spent all summer and fall practice preparing for Texas.  And Texas spent all that time preparing for Bama.  It mattered in that game.

Maybe they should have spent a little time preparing for KU

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1 hour ago, BB65 said:

Best option for Texas is for all four 12-0 teams to lose this weekend.

No, no, no, no. In your scenario you will end up with 8 one loss teams and the committee can do whatever they wish with no worry about optics. You'll end up with tOSU as #1 and Texas eating a shit sandwich still at #7.

You want Georgia and Washington to win to send Oregon and Bama to the 2 loss crowd and completely out of the picture. Asking Iowa to score over 17 is just too much to ask, so you can't rely on a Michigan loss. But three undefeated teams results in just 3 one loss teams in tOSU, FSU, and Texas and Texas the only one with a title.

Just need a Louisville win and all else chalk. It is the way.

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Just now, Herpa Derpa said:

No, no, no, no. In your scenario you will end up with 8 one loss teams and the committee can do whatever they wish with no worry about optics. You'll end up with tOSU as #1 and Texas eating a shit sandwich still at #7.

Jesus here we go again. 

AGAIN, no team that was not a conference champion has ever gone to the playoff ahead of a P5 conference champion with the same number of losses. Ever. Not even once.

If every undefeated team lost on Saturday (obviously won't happen) the playoff would be Alabama, Oregon, Texas, and Georgia/Michigan/Ohio State. Best odds for the last spot to Georgia of course. 

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Edit.... dammit, Huck beat me to it.

 

I said it upthread, but they have never taken a 1 loss non-conference champ over a 1 loss conference champ.  Of course, they could start this finalyear, but I doubt it.  All of the below presumes we win, and I am so glad we play at 11:00 so we get our game out of the way.....

If we presume the above, then if FSU loses, we are in.  Period.  Unfortunately, I think Georgia/Bama winner is in no matter what, and Oregon will get chosen over us if they win.  While I don't agree, I've made peace that because Oregon has been ahead of us since we lost + "Ess Eee Cee can't be left out!."  I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.  

Edited by A-Tex Devil
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53 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Not sure if anyone responded as I can’t keep up with the thread. Klatt believes that it is a possibility that if Bama wins and all else is chalk you could see a Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Bama final 4, which is what he would do if you are truly looking for the four best teams. Overall he thinks Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and Texas would be the right call if this weekend is all chalk. Same with Cowherd.  Growing sentiment behind leaving out a 13-0 FSU if you are truly looking at the 4 best teams. I don’t think it happens but it’s gaining traction.

Is Oregon over Wash considered chalk?  anyway, Klatt and Cowherd are being honest about the 4 best teams but the committee will never do it.  the loss column rules all and even they know that.

I think they are both mainly driving for clicks(insert Dan Lanning video here)

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Jesus here we go again. 

AGAIN, no team that was not a conference champion has ever gone to the playoff ahead of a P5 conference champion with the same number of losses. Ever. Not even once.

If every undefeated team lost on Saturday (obviously won't happen) the playoff would be Alabama, Oregon, Texas, and Georgia/Michigan/Ohio State. Best odds for the last spot to Georgia of course. 

And Bruce Jenner never had a vagina. But then she did. I don't place faith in never.

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Just now, joeycovers said:

This thread is the same thing over and over and over. Its hilarious. And I keep reading it. 

 

Cant wait for Friday night to hear why the game doesnt matter by half the people and the other half excited Oregon won. 

 

No! We want Washington to win! Though I forgot why.

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Just now, joeycovers said:

Great thing is as long as UT takes care of business no matter what else happens its all going to come down to the last game on Sat. Noles and Cards. I imagine the ratings for that will be thru the roof. 

Can I at least dream of a 12-10 or 9-7 Iowa win on a last second field goal?

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Just now, babysdaddy said:

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

 

Here is the full committee.  don't think I've seen this posted yet

If you can look at that cast of characters and believe with certainty there's no possibility of fuckery, then you're a far more trusting man than I. Those profile pics scream "what happens if i push this button" to me.

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1 minute ago, joeycovers said:

Great thing is as long as UT takes care of business no matter what else happens its all going to come down to the last game on Sat. Noles and Cards. I imagine the ratings for that will be thru the roof. 

I have plans most of the day Saturday and that night and I'm not happy about it. 

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6 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

Great thing is as long as UT takes care of business no matter what else happens its all going to come down to the last game on Sat. Noles and Cards. I imagine the ratings for that will be thru the roof. 

It'll be both the first time and last time anyone cares about the ACC championship game.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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