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Operation Prosperity Guardian: The Red Sea Cruise 2023-? But wait there's more! Iran + proxies, FAFO


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7 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeesh if we are being bitches about flying F-18s against a bunch of amateurs then that definitely means we don't have the resolve to launch airstrikes against Iran.  If we are being that big of bitches.  Just bring everyone home

 

wE d0nT wHahNt 2 eScaLaTe!1!

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27 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

All talk, no action so far?

There seems to be a lot of diplomatic action.  Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly.  At the same time, we don't necessarily want to hit Iran directly for fear of sparking a general war in a region in which we have fewer and fewer strategic interests.  Or maybe we do, as a way to weaken the Iranian regime and in the expectation that Iran will just eat shit and smile.  There's a lot of uncertainty on both sides, and so a lot of incentive to avoid increased confrontation.

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling.  And sorting that out is going to delay whatever play we decide to make.

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today.

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10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There seems to be a lot of diplomatic action.  Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly.  At the same time, we don't necessarily want to hit Iran directly for fear of sparking a general war in a region in which we have fewer and fewer strategic interests.  Or maybe we do, as a way to weaken the Iranian regime and in the expectation that Iran will just eat shit and smile.  There's a lot of uncertainty on both sides, and so a lot of incentive to avoid increased confrontation.

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling.  And sorting that out is going to delay whatever play we decide to make.

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today.

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except for killing some Americans and injuring many Americans.

 

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except Iran is developing nuclear weapons and will be able to permanently disrupt the Middle East and world oil prices.  And currently we are signaling that we are okay with that.

 

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling. 

True

 

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today:

Except when you wait and then attack you will be seen as the aggressor. We won't do shit until a ship gets hit. And even then, it would be limited strikes into Iran. And we will pull out when Israel leaves Gaza.

Edited by Bevo
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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except for killing some Americans and injuring many Americans.

 

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except Iran is developing nuclear weapons and will be able to permanently disrupt the Middle East and world oil prices.  And currently we are signaling that we are okay with that.

 

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling. 

True

 

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today:

Except when you wait and then attack you will be seen as the aggressor. We won't do shit until a ship gets hit. And even then, it would be limited strikes into Iran. And we will pull out when Israel leaves Gaza.

Well, inasmuch as we are now a net exporter of petroleum, we don't really care that world oil prices might go up.

But the immediate issue isn't Iran's nuclear program or world oil prices.  It's three dead Americans.  The only way to deal with Iran's nuclear program is through diplomacy.  We don't have any way to eliminate Iran's nuclear program through military or covert action.  We can (and have) delayed it.  But there's really no way to stop it unless the Iranians themselves agree to a halt.

The best way to accelerate it, however, would be a general war.  In that event, Iran would go full Manhattan Project to finalize its development of nuclear weapons (and the necessary delivery vehicles).  So that's yet another reason to take a measured approach and avoid escalating to the point of bringing about a general war.

All these various considerations take time to parse out and think through.  There's just no benefit to rushing into military action that could spark consequences that we haven't fully thought through.  Taking a week or two or three doesn't make us look like an "aggressor;" anybody who thinks that already thinks we're the aggressor by having troops in Iraq in the first place.  But taking that time could enable us to explore diplomatic solutions that would achieve our goals without risking American lives, treasure, or prestige.

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Iran wants to control traffic through the Suez Canal and Persian Gulf. They are allied with Russia and China. 
 
I think the response needs to send the clear message- your ships sail these waters at our pleasure. I think we should sink several of theirs. 
 
The irony of deterrence is that calibrated and measured responses don’t deter. Large and extreme responses do deter. 

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, inasmuch as we are now a net exporter of petroleum, we don't really care that world oil prices might go up.

But the immediate issue isn't Iran's nuclear program or world oil prices.  It's three dead Americans.  The only way to deal with Iran's nuclear program is through diplomacy.  We don't have any way to eliminate Iran's nuclear program through military or covert action.  We can (and have) delayed it.  But there's really no way to stop it unless the Iranians themselves agree to a halt.

The best way to accelerate it, however, would be a general war.  In that event, Iran would go full Manhattan Project to finalize its development of nuclear weapons (and the necessary delivery vehicles).  So that's yet another reason to take a measured approach and avoid escalating to the point of bringing about a general war.

All these various considerations take time to parse out and think through.  There's just no benefit to rushing into military action that could spark consequences that we haven't fully thought through.  Taking a week or two or three doesn't make us look like an "aggressor;" anybody who thinks that already thinks we're the aggressor by having troops in Iraq in the first place.  But taking that time could enable us to explore diplomatic solutions that would achieve our goals without risking American lives, treasure, or prestige.

If world oil prices rise, our oil prices rise even if we aren't purchasing oil from the middle east.

And yes we can eliminate Iran's nuclear program. We choose not to.

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

There seems to be a lot of diplomatic action.  Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly.  At the same time, we don't necessarily want to hit Iran directly for fear of sparking a general war in a region in which we have fewer and fewer strategic interests.  Or maybe we do, as a way to weaken the Iranian regime and in the expectation that Iran will just eat shit and smile.  There's a lot of uncertainty on both sides, and so a lot of incentive to avoid increased confrontation.

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling.  And sorting that out is going to delay whatever play we decide to make.

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today.

There are big differences in effect between a Tomahawk arriving while you’re under it, versus a Tomahawk arriving when you’ve run away. 
 

We are allowing IRCG people to get out of the way.  Say what you will about this idea, but that’s the goal. Jake Sullivan continues to manage escalation. 

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There are big differences in effect between a Tomahawk arriving while you’re under it, versus a Tomahawk arriving when you’ve run away. 
 

We are allowing IRCG people to get out of the way.  Say what you will about this idea, but that’s the goal. Jake Sullivan continues to manage escalation. 

That is definitely the goal.  And I think it's a good goal.  We neither need nor want a war against Iran right now.

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4 hours ago, statsman said:

I think the response needs to send the clear message- your ships sail these waters at our pleasure. I think we should sink several of theirs. 
 
The irony of deterrence is that calibrated and measured responses don’t deter. Large and extreme responses do deter. 

We just need to capture the container ships they, are using as their eyes and ears, particularly in the Red Sea. That blinds them and the Houthi by proxy. Along with that, tell Iran we are shutting down their arms shipments to the general area of the Middle East.  We can isolate the Houthi, and we can definitely impact shipments to Iraq and Syria.

it does feel like Iran knows that a line was crossed, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they are giving up some of the militias to us. Everything feels like we are creeping towards taking out some factories.

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  • blacklab changed the title to Operation Prosperity Guardian: The Red Sea Cruise 2023-? But wait there's more! Iran + proxies, FAFO
19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Shit has gone live. US is hitting Syria and Iraq targets linked to Iran.

Breaking on CNN, so what we are hitting is quiet.

Interesting on the timing. Biden goes to Dover, flies back to DC, and here we go.

Almost sounds like he gave the go signal at Dover

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It seems like Iran understands the deal.  Their proxy hit us in the face (probably without Iranian sanction?), so we're going to hit them in the balls 17 times, without violating their airspace or territory proper.

As long as the rest of their proxies are properly incentivized to stand down, by them, this could be done in a few days, without escalation?

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Personally I’m a fan of a more calculated FAFO…let everyone know shit’s coming, watch closely to make sure they don’t try to remove all the hardware, listen closely to learn who is calling the shots and where they run to hide, and drop a bunch of JDAMs to make go boom stuff that isn’t easily replaceable.  

Make it hurt, remind them Global Strike Command exists, but don’t nuke/pave such that they face pressure internally to raise the stakes.   Like when I have to yell at someone else’s kids for being an asshole at my house…cut that shit out.  

Let’s hope it works.  We were at war in the Middle East for almost half my life.  Let’s not do that, there are other problems to solve.  

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