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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
38 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

2020 was definitely induced some butthole puckering until you started to see the swing states and Georgia come in....it took way longer than normal as well for that to happen which IMO added to how puckered the butthole was.

 

I'm not saying this one is over or won't be close but leading into November as of right now it feels like it may be an easier path to presidency for democrats, especially since there isn't an incumbent. 

No doubt, but the nuance that is even more terrifying is that the total across the 3 swing states was something like 80k votes in 4 states to change everything.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/2020-election-numbers

Quote

When you look at the smallest popular vote shift needed to give Trump a victory, the 2020 election was close. Indeed, it was even closer than 2016. If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all. The House would have then decided the election. Republicans will hold the majority of state delegations in the new Congress, and they undoubtedly would have chosen Trump. If Trump had also picked up the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which he lost to Biden by 22,091 votes, he would have won the Electoral College outright. Back in 2016, Clinton needed to pick up the right mix of 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.



And that was with Biden winning the popular vote by 4.5%. So yeah, I'm still sweating 5% national poll leads for Harris. 

Through the fucking whistle people. 

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Posted
Just now, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTrcsbLt69ka1xLD0IvOLz

 

 

The best will be when they have to call NC on election night for Harris, which is going to lead to a massive stroke in MAL

Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Js1 said:

Well yeah, he got legal bills to pay 

Ain’t no rest for the wicked 

Money don’t grow on trees 

Edited by TexasEd
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Posted
38 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Thanks for updating this thread with the polls.  We almost need a specific thread just for polls and thoughts on them.  As a non poll expert I never know which polls are obviously republican driven, democrat driven or neutral.  Also, everyone say there is this Trump under polling historically or hidden Trump voters but is the same now true possibly for all of the new voter registrations or woman voting on abortion rights that the polls aren’t picking up that balances out the hidden Trump voters?  

That's the billion dollar question. 

Posted
47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This. There’s a good chunk of them at some crappy SEC school, being young racist fucks. 

I posted somewhere, but a whole group of them just moved in across the street from me.  Texas is, as much as people don't want to admit it, now a "crappy SEC school".

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the last morning dump poll, IPSOS is Harris +4, 45-41 (always a lot of undecided in this poll)

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

Maybe some, but 14%? Thats ludicrous, especially with brain work now out.

Posted
44 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

On a statewide level, Texas has seen an average shift to the Democrats of 2.37% each election cycle since 2014.

Which feels weird and as if it can't continue.  Abbott is doing everything to drive out progressives and welcome fringe rightists fleeing the melanin-induced terrors of California.

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

Not necessarily--I've had elections in which I was undecided until the last minute (including 2008).

For me, this election isn't anything like 2008.  Nobody has an unformed opinion of Donald Trump.  But perhaps the substitution of Kamala Harris for Joe Biden has increased the number of last-minute deciders, with Harris being much less known and defined than Biden.

I would observe that since 2016, those last-minute deciders have consistently broken in favor of the Democratic candidate across all manner of elections (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, dog-catcherial).

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Would the number of votes have changed if they didn't call it?

No, but it's like recruiting. It's always easier to keep a commit than to flip a commit. Once they called AZ they were playing from behind in public perception and that's an entirely different game than just waiting it out and crying foul. 

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Posted

Those Fox News polls have abortion amendments passing in AZ and NV by 73-23 and 75-21, respectively.  

Yes, there will be some Trump-abortion referendum crossovers, but it does feel more....obvious (?) that Harris has a higher ceiling in both those states, based on a) having voted Dem in 2020 and b) having such high support for abortion. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

My first job was picking up horseshit the summer between my junior and senior years of high school. At no point did that ever go on any resume. 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

Uh yeah, Gallup's poll about enthusiasm/interest/etc has roughly 20% still undecided.  

Also, net enthusiasm (more enthusiastic, minus less enthusiastic) is currently +64 after Biden dropped out, compared to +13 in March, and the GOP is only at +33 (+24 in March)

Kamala Harris literally was shot of adrenaline directly to the heart.

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Posted
11 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Rule #1 in politics - don't call attention to what your opponent is saying.  There's owning certain things (deplorables, I guess) and then straight up being like "no, he's not weird.  stop saying he's weird.  how come every time we say he's not weird, you think he's even more weird than before???" 

Streisand effect in action.  

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

I worked at a Burger King one summer, and I have never, ever put that on a resume or job application.  I speak of it every once in a while (usually with some amount of gratitude for having that experience in my job history), but it has not been mentioned in any of my biographies.  What unbelievable fucksticks.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You know, I was going to vote for her but since she omitted a high school job from her college resume, I'm now going to instead vote for the guy with multiple convictions for fraud. 

You know, it's easy to forget that the guy who will do anything for a buck owes half a billion dollars for fraud. And is running for president. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, mdmost said:

No offense but this is very naive, especially with guys. Look on this site at people like Prong Horn as an example of what we're up against. They are being fed, self-selected early on, of non-stop clickbait outrage about illegal immigrants taking what's theirs, guys like Andrew Tate telling them that women are there to be their sexual servants and being an aggressive asshole is the way to get what's yours, and right wing people blaming everyone on the left for everything. Anecdotally, I hear from my daughters about the guys in their school who parrot a lot of this, some of them from families with questionable immigration status. They love Trump because he speaks to their worst desires and impulses. He's the male Id personified. Now, do they vote? God, I hope not. But they grow to an age where they can. I also tell my daughters that they now know what guys to look out for and stay away from.

In May I attended my niece's HS graduation in Houston.  It's a private school, and one of the speakers was a girl from the senior class.  I don't think it was the Valedictorian speech--it was something stupid like speaking on memories from her time at the school because she was one of the few that had been attending since 1st grade.

She got to 5th grade, and her favorite memory was watching Trump's Presidential Inauguration, "or what they call in my family 'the best day EVER!'"  Half the room applauded.  My sister rolled her eyes at me and I said "you're the one who paid to send your daughter here."

Let's face it, most of us are influenced by our parents beliefs at an early age.  So I'm sure she was excited for the inauguration at age 11 because her dipshit parents were excited.  What I don't understand is the inability of people to think independently as they age to understand who has your best interests at stake.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

Wait a minute. Are people supposed to be upset she doesn't brag about working at McDonald's?

Because that shit deserves hazard pay. That's plus 5 people skills on the charisma rating. 

I thought we were supposed to encourage broke ass teenagers to get a damn job? Or are we supposed to be embarrassed that she didn't have a cushy no-show gig because she was someone's granddaughter?

That's like getting bent out of shape about AOC bartending. 

Both jobs enhance their relatability. 

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Posted
Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Wait a minute. Are people supposed to be upset she doesn't brag about working at McDonald's?

I don't speak maga, but I think the accusation is that she is making up the whole McDonald's thing? Because that's something that people do.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I don't speak maga, but I think the accusation is that she is making up the whole McDonald's thing? Because that's something that people do.

No. Not that she didn't work there. That she lied (by ommission) about not working there. Or maybe your thing. But either way she's a LIAR. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, South Austin said:

For Williamson and Hays, I didn't follow the last election cycle with much detail, but I know that there was a blue sweep in the Hays County judicial races, which took a lot of folks by surprise.  And those are relatively down-ballot elections.  It looks like Hays is going bluer faster than Wilco, which has still held onto a Republican dominated judiciary.  But Williamson seems firmly purple, which is pretty fucking remarkable given how deep right red that county has been for so long.  For whatever my lawyer perspective is worth.

  Williamson has a super entrenched R county machine, but tends to vote bluer in national and statewide races. I was really disheartened at the candidate quality of most of the commissioners court and county judge races last cycle. We flipped the Sheriff's office, but that had more to do with Choty being a wholly unlikeable and corrupt prick than the greatness of Gleason as a candidate. 

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Posted
I worked at a Burger King one summer, and I have never, ever put that on a resume or job application.  I speak of it every once in a while (usually with some amount of gratitude for having that experience in my job history), but it has not been mentioned in any of my biographies.  What unbelievable fucksticks.

Your mom once got busy in a Burger King bathroom.

She also reportedly likes her beats funky, is spunky, and likes her oatmeal lumpy.
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Posted

People need to stop the hand-wringing over MAGA youth.  Yes, they exist.  They're also a significant minority.  Look at the 18-29 group in the last 2 POTUS elections:

2016:  58-28 (Clinton/Trump)

2020:  59-35 (Biden/Trump)

 

It will vary from election to election, a little bit, most likely due to any 3rd candidate support.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

  Williamson has a super entrenched R county machine, but tends to vote bluer in national and statewide races. I was really disheartened at the candidate quality of most of the commissioners court and county judge races last cycle. We flipped the Sheriff's office, but that had more to do with Choty being a wholly unlikeable and corrupt prick than the greatness of Gleason as a candidate. 

Williamson is Exhibit A of how with just a tiny bit of effort the TDP could flip a historically red county blue for the foreseeable future. I don't know how this all works on a local level, but I do know how things have been trending at the top of the ticket since we moved here in '07. I've included a couple of previous elections just to show how red this county was up until recently:

image.png.0a6a8f1e08fb69e81221282e384ab244.png

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Posted
1 hour ago, South Austin said:

I worked at a Burger King one summer, and I have never, ever put that on a resume or job application.  I speak of it every once in a while (usually with some amount of gratitude for having that experience in my job history), but it has not been mentioned in any of my biographies.  What unbelievable fucksticks.

This is unforgivable.  MAYONNAISE on a burger??  GTFOH.

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Posted

I am probably in the minority, but I think that Trump‘s statements on the military and deceased military - and McCain specifically- and his failure to attend the hundredth anniversary of the end of World War I because of rain - and the recent Arlington lawbreaking will have a small effect on his followers.  I’m not saying there is mass defections. But I am saying more independents will go Democrat and more old school VFW GOP supporters will stay home.

What I am saying is, I think it will be a small difference in turnout that will prove to be a huge difference in close electoral college results.  . 

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Posted

Man, scroll down to "Results by County" and you realize that the vast majority of rural Texas is... man, I'm trying to find the right word... I'll let you pick one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas

Sort by % for Trump over Biden.

Round about 100 Counties in Texas voted 80%+ for Trump.  Roberts did its best to get to 100%.  Can you imagine being the poor souls in that county who voted anything but R?

One County in Texas, Travis County, Texas voted $70%+ for Biden.  

Yes, I know land doesn't vote but still... its jarring what rural communities are like. 

image.thumb.png.90aa16ac7719d5d62d934de337240ebd.png

Posted
2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

If they haven’t left him by now, they will never ever leave him. 

They got the largest salary increase under Biden in 22 years. Crickets 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Not necessarily--I've had elections in which I was undecided until the last minute (including 2008).

For me, this election isn't anything like 2008.  Nobody has an unformed opinion of Donald Trump.  But perhaps the substitution of Kamala Harris for Joe Biden has increased the number of last-minute deciders, with Harris being much less known and defined than Biden.

I would observe that since 2016, those last-minute deciders have consistently broken in favor of the Democratic candidate across all manner of elections (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, dog-catcherial).

 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Those Fox News polls have abortion amendments passing in AZ and NV by 73-23 and 75-21, respectively.  

Yes, there will be some Trump-abortion referendum crossovers, but it does feel more....obvious (?) that Harris has a higher ceiling in both those states, based on a) having voted Dem in 2020 and b) having such high support for abortion. 

Yes, take percentages off for now and just talk real numbers.  Trump’s actual number of voters is not growing.  He is not doing anything to add to his total unless it’s motivating racist/misogynists that can’t vote for a melanated woman. 

Trump is shedding voters who are less motivated and in some cases seeing some of the weirdness open their eyes with a horrible VP choice and continual fuck ups with veterans.  He lost some on 1/6/2021, lost more that have died over the last 4 years.  Trump’s max this cycle was when Biden was still in the race and he looked like the most capable old guy.

The changes in percentages are happening because Harris is changing eligible and registered voters to likely and unmotivated to engaged.  In this way Harris-Walz own the outcome of the election and all Trump can do it bitch and whine which is what he is best at.  Harris-Walz actions will determine the race based on their ability to maintain momentum and avoid pitfalls.

The wildcard factor in this race now will be the economy over then next 2 months.  I saw data where 3 of 5 people think we are in a recession now.  If we have pundits that start saying recession too much it could be like Beetlegeuse and manifest in the minds of voters even though we have not had one negative quarter yet, much less two required to be in a recession.

Edited by TexasEd
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Posted

My god she looked so fucking NORMAL interacting with the employees (and working aged kids) at that BBQ restaurant yesterday compared to Vance at a donut shop 

Posted

My hope is people will see how crass and purely political Trump's stunt was. He doesn't care about those veterans or the deceased. He only cares that he can use their deaths to his advantage. Christ, his team made it a fucking Tik Tok that was released. He gave a thumbs up and a smile in front of the graves of soldiers. We all get aghast at people taking selfies at the Ground Zero memorial or Auschwitz. Some places just shouldn't be props for your pictures or videos. Of course, some just see this as fine because "it was Biden/Comrade Kamala's fault anyhow and WHY WASN'T SHE THERE INSTEAD!!!!". Those people are lost regardless. But maybe the middle will find this fairly disgusting. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wiler77 said:

In May I attended my niece's HS graduation in Houston.  It's a private school, and one of the speakers was a girl from the senior class.  I don't think it was the Valedictorian speech--it was something stupid like speaking on memories from her time at the school because she was one of the few that had been attending since 1st grade.

She got to 5th grade, and her favorite memory was watching Trump's Presidential Inauguration, "or what they call in my family 'the best day EVER!'"  Half the room applauded.  My sister rolled her eyes at me and I said "you're the one who paid to send your daughter here."

Let's face it, most of us are influenced by our parents beliefs at an early age.  So I'm sure she was excited for the inauguration at age 11 because her dipshit parents were excited.  What I don't understand is the inability of people to think independently as they age to understand who has your best interests at stake.

My money's on Second Baptist 

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