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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
23 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

This website is the only place I hear talk like this.  Everyone on tv seems to think it's pretty much tied, and they're concerned that enthusiasm for Harris is waning.

I don't understand it. She's leading in every swing state. She probably has a better chance of winning Florida or Iowa than Trump has of winning Wisconsin. 

Dotard has basically one path to victory and that's winning PA, GA, and NC. I don't think he's winning any of those. 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

I don't understand it. She's leading in every swing state. She probably has a better chance of winning Florida or Iowa than Trump has of winning Wisconsin. 

Dotard has basically one path to victory and that's winning PA, GA, and NC. I don't think he's winning any of those. 

Because we are not paid to make this race seem close. If the race is a blowout, no one is tuning into CNN to listen to their panel of 17 jackasses pontificate 5x a day.

And if yall are getting paid and I’m not, imma be real mad 

26 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Everyone on tv

Okay Donald. You saw it on TV, so it’s true 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
18 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So, the popular vote isn't going to be close.

How much longer are Americans going to put up with that?

Forever.gif.

Show me a 60 seat senate majority and I'll show you change. Or unless some of these other states do the right thing in the next 4 years. 

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Posted
13 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Just to give an update on ads in Georgia, I'd say it's 3 or 4 to one in terms of volume in favor of Harris.  Trump ads mostly make claims like we are paying 3 times as much for gas (which is humorous, as gas today was $2.82 a gallon, which when one considers inflation, is actually significantly lower than when he was in office (easily over $3 per gallon, pre-inflation)).  His ads are blaming housing costs on Harris, along with grocery inflation.  Then we get some weird ones with no talking just showing a black family at a pool with "Trump" written (it's fucking really weird).  The Harris ads a very effective in my mind, mostly about not going back, forcing corporations and billionaires to pay their share, attacking 2025 and tariffs.  

For me the ads I see on TV are probably in the neighborhood of 2-1 Trump-Harris but the live tv I’m watching is almost exclusively football so I’m sure that skews it. On YouTube, the ads I get are probably close to 10-1 Trump-Harris and the physical mail ads I get are 3 to 4 per week from Trump and zero ever from Harris. 

But from where I’m sitting I appear to be the only demographic that Trump is even trying to court. 18-45, middle class, white male, suburban PA. They seem to know that they can’t gain voters anywhere else and every decision they make seems to be geared towards trying to gain voters there. They know that if they don’t dominate that demographic in PA they have absolutely no chance.

The messaging I get is overwhelmingly that immigrants are destroying absolutely everything. There are violent criminals streaming across the border feeding fentanyl to everyone. They are raising health care costs, taking jobs, and committing crimes, it’s all Kamala’s fault and she’s soft on crime. A distant second message is that Kamala and Biden are exclusively responsible for inflation and Kamala will make it worse. 3rd is that she’ll ban fracking. 4th is that Trump has absolutely no connection to project 2025. I get that shit all day, every day. Almost every commercial break watching a game. 

Senate ads are probably 2-1 McCormick to Casey but that seems to be shifting more even recently. 

The gop nominee in my congressional race is a guy I went to high school with and he couldn’t be hiding more from being associated with Trump. 

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

Like the Elk says, gotta campaign through the gristle. 

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

Don’t look now, but Arch just came in

 

image.thumb.jpeg.eb8afe85509db1426fde45fff3ccae45.jpeg

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

The ejection is less than 8 weeks out and early voting starts soon in some states.

It’s early in the 4th quarter at this point.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

This is exactly right. 

Posted
2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

this is on tonight

 

Man, FUCK THAT.  I don't need to watch morons be morons and have the leopards eat their faces all over again.  The bottom line is that all of these people, ALL OF THEM, are the dumbest among us.  Whether it's the rubes who think the election was stolen or the grifters going after money and power that knew it wasn't stolen, they are all the dumbest among us.  Fuck em all.

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball.  Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game.  But the game is far from over.

Actually, the better analogy is this:

-Democrats played a hideous first half. Sluggish, no energy, penalties, drops, dumb mistakes. Somehow, they get to the locker room at halftime only down 10 and receiving the second half kickoff.

-Coaches make some changes in the locker room. New QB and a different coach calling the defense. First play of 2H is play action that the entire GOP back 7 bites hard on. Deep man waltzes untouched into the end zone for a 75-yard TD. Game on. 

-Since that play, the GOP is making more and more mistakes while the Dem OL is finally opening gaps on the ground.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think Rogan has ever challenged one of his interviewees, and I certainly don't think he would start with Walz. Rogan pretty much always buys into whatever his interviewee is saying (at least from what little I've seen). 

I was thinking Harris who he would absolutely treat like shit right off the bat. I could see Walz charming the shit out of him though and have him nodding along to things like keeping kids fed and having the government mind their own fucking business on personal issues.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
51 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Clearly you haven't been paying attention. 

IMG_3382.gif.6bef784c3023a38779b19a274b96c2b9.gif

just to clear this up, are you saying that Trump fatigue will not play a role in the upcoming election? - Or was my use of the word ‘significant’ subject to such a broad definition that I was unclear?

I mean, I recently posted unsettling information about the increased Republican registrations in Pennsylvania in North Carolina.   Nobody is saying that this is in the bag.   

Posted
26 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

there's that state compact that people throw around that doesn't require a constitutional amendment.

Seems that would be even harder since an amendment requires 3/4 of the states while the compact would need every state to agree. No way in hell any red state agrees because they know popular vote goes against them most elections.

Posted
1 hour ago, RabidM said:

How are young voters only 56 to 40 for Harris? Nobody gets fucked by gop politics like young people... harris should be smashing that demographic 

They were raised by Daily Texan posters? OR went to Aggie, or Blynn or Tech, or ACU?

Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Actually the most recent one was last night and it was Harris +3. CNN probably pumping their own polls 

Thought one came out this morning that was turnip +2?

Posted

The polling companies, media companies and even Harris campaign are cool with a story that the race is a dead heat. A close race helps them all financially.

you won’t hear a real opinion from the Harris campaign until the results start to come in.  And perhaps until the last person votes in NV and AZ.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Thought one came out this morning that was turnip +2?

I've already touched on that one.  Insider Advantage was the worst pollster in 2022 and was 5-6 points to the right in all of their results.  They are one of the most biased pollsters for Republicans, behind Trafalgar and Rasmussen.   They're were not much better in 2020 either - consistently to the right in all of the states they polled. 

They conveniently waited until that Harris +3 dropped and then they dropped theirs. They don't release crosstabs or MOE either. 

IA is just another right-wing spam poll - we are finally going to get high-quality PA polls (Suffolk, another in-state polling company this week) but the zone is still being flooded with crapola. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
49 minutes ago, heso said:

For me the ads I see on TV are probably in the neighborhood of 2-1 Trump-Harris but the live tv I’m watching is almost exclusively football so I’m sure that skews it. On YouTube, the ads I get are probably close to 10-1 Trump-Harris and the physical mail ads I get are 3 to 4 per week from Trump and zero ever from Harris. 

But from where I’m sitting I appear to be the only demographic that Trump is even trying to court. 18-45, middle class, white male, suburban PA. They seem to know that they can’t gain voters anywhere else and every decision they make seems to be geared towards trying to gain voters there. They know that if they don’t dominate that demographic in PA they have absolutely no chance.

The messaging I get is overwhelmingly that immigrants are destroying absolutely everything. There are violent criminals streaming across the border feeding fentanyl to everyone. They are raising health care costs, taking jobs, and committing crimes, it’s all Kamala’s fault and she’s soft on crime. A distant second message is that Kamala and Biden are exclusively responsible for inflation and Kamala will make it worse. 3rd is that she’ll ban fracking. 4th is that Trump has absolutely no connection to project 2025. I get that shit all day, every day. Almost every commercial break watching a game. 

Senate ads are probably 2-1 McCormick to Casey but that seems to be shifting more even recently. 

The gop nominee in my congressional race is a guy I went to high school with and he couldn’t be hiding more from being associated with Trump. 

That ratio is fairly concerning. Even in Houston, Texas, the ads I see both on TV (during football) and online favor Harris pretty significantly. I thought her campaign had big ad spends in PA, but I guess maybe they aren't targeting football? 

Posted
54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Forever.gif.

Show me a 60 seat senate majority and I'll show you change. Or unless some of these other states do the right thing in the next 4 years. 

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

It'll take a full on armed revolution to undo the constitution and start from scratch. The red states aren't going to budge on this issue through traditional means. He would need to not only win but follow through on Project 2025 like nationwide abortion ban, end same sex marriage, mandatory prayer in public schools, or doing away with public schools altogether. I think he's fundamentally lazy and stupid and won't pull all of that off and the majority of the middle class regardless of the president and inflation and all that shit is just comfortable enough to not worry about burning down the palace.

Edited by 'stache
Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

It'll take a full on armed revolution to undo the constitution and start from scratch. The red states aren't going to budge on this issue through traditional means. 

If Republicans keep winning presidential elections with a minority of votes, pressure will build. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

JL Partners is a UK-based pollster set up by ex-Tory advisors. So take it for what it's worth. 

According to the write-up in the Daily Mail, Trump has lost 17 points of support with Hispanics (now 45-27 Harris) half his support of black voters (13 to 6%) and Harris leads with independents. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

JL Partners is a UK-based pollster set up by ex-Tory advisors. So take it for what it's worth. 

According to the write-up in the Daily Mail, Trump has lost 17 points of support with Hispanics (now 45-27 Harris) half his support of black voters (13 to 6%) and Harris leads with independents. 

I mean, they have the demographics right at least.

Posted
32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You’re getting your Nates confused. Nate Cohn works for the NYT not Silver.

I guess it wasn't apparent by the rest of the post, but it was a joke. Nate Silver sucks balls and is in the tank for Thiel so of course he'd write a headline like I wrote. I wasn't gonig for factual accuracy, dude. 

20 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

What about anything in this country seems tenable at this point?

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Posted
39 minutes ago, 'stache said:

It'll take a full on armed revolution to undo the constitution and start from scratch. The red states aren't going to budge on this issue through traditional means. He would need to not only win but follow through on Project 2025 like nationwide abortion ban, end same sex marriage, mandatory prayer in public schools, or doing away with public schools altogether. I think he's fundamentally lazy and stupid and won't pull all of that off and the majority of the middle class regardless of the president and inflation and all that shit is just comfortable enough to not worry about burning down the palace.

Texas Reps are already lining up to implement our own electoral college on all statewide offices, in an effort to offset the popular vote potential in the large Metro areas.

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Posted
57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I've already touched on that one.  Insider Advantage was the worst pollster in 2022 and was 5-6 points to the right in all of their results.  They are one of the most biased pollsters for Republicans, behind Trafalgar and Rasmussen.   They're were not much better in 2020 either - consistently to the right in all of the states they polled. 

They conveniently waited until that Harris +3 dropped and then they dropped theirs. They don't release crosstabs or MOE either. 

IA is just another right-wing spam poll - we are finally going to get high-quality PA polls (Suffolk, another in-state polling company this week) but the zone is still being flooded with crapola. 


Thanks boss. Saw it on twitter then immediately went into a meeting and couldn’t keep up with surly

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