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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Why are people still worried about polls when early voting data is available/will become more in focus this week?

Because we are the point of the campaign where we are going to start throwing turtle shells into the fire to read the cracks.  It's human tradition to seek out any form of divination to see if we'll win the battle and whether our crops will get rain.  5000 years of desperation can't be wrong. 

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Posted

Headline vs actual story.  The entire media is basically click bait.

 

Headline:

Republicans Eat Into Democrats’ Early Voting Advantage

Very first paragraph from actual story:

Democrats have a clear edge in early voting so far, but Republicans are embracing the practice of casting their ballots before Election Day more than they have in past election cycles, despite former President Donald Trump sending mixed signals on the issue.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/early-voting-democrats-republicans-election-2024-f0abda67

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Trump really is gonna get a chunk of latino/black male voters.  It's the stupid fucking meathead vote.  I've seen it all over.  Fucking ridiculous but more stupid people voting for stupid.  Hard to fight that. 

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Posted (edited)

Washington Post Article on early voting.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/

 

Spoiler

Americans are voting ahead of Election Day in historic numbers this year. That includes Republicans, who appear to be responding favorably to a new message from former president Donald Trump: It’s okay to vote early.

Dozens of states have opened in-person early-voting locations, and turnout has been robust. In Georgia, more than 1.6 million people had cast in-person ballots by midmorning Tuesday — nearly one-third of the total vote from four years ago. North Carolina approached 1.3 million Tuesday, the sixth day of early voting. . And in Nevada, Republicans voting in person have outnumbered Democrats — a reversal from four years ago.
Overall, more than 18 million Americans have cast ballots in person or by mail so far this year, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida. That’s more than 10 percent of the overall total who cast ballots four years ago.

What’s less clear is whether the initial burst of voting enthusiasm will last — and to what extent it reflects a displacement from heavy rates of mail voting four years ago during the coronavirus pandemic.
 
“If you have a ballot, return it immediately,” Trump told an Atlanta rally crowd on Oct. 15, the first day of early voting in Georgia. “If not, go tomorrow as soon as you can go to the polls and vote.”
Trump’s rhetoric in 2020 — which included false allegations that Democrats had cast millions of fraudulent ballots that lifted Joe Biden to victory — suppressed voting by mail and early voting among his supporters. Some in the GOP linked those attacks to lower turnout and even losses in some corners of the country, including in two Georgia runoff elections on Jan. 5, 2021, that cost the party control of the U.S. Senate.
Democrats have embraced early voting for years, in part because it leaves less to chance on Election Day, when busy schedules, bad weather or illness can keep voters from making it to the polls. Known as “banking” votes, early voting also allows campaigns to be more efficient with resources as Election Day draws near by focusing attention on a smaller and smaller group of voters who have not yet cast ballots. Many in the GOP had encouraged Trump to change his tune on both early and mail voting as a way to level the playing field with Democrats, and his early-voting push has been eagerly embraced by others in the party.
“We can’t afford to wait,” Wisconsin GOP Chairman Brian Schimming said during a news conference Monday. “We encourage people to vote early because you never know what’s going on with the weather.”
Schimming’s counterpart in Michigan, Pete Hoekstra, posted a photo on social media with his wife, each of them holding mail ballots. They were “too excited to wait,” he wrote.
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who compiles voting numbers for the Election Lab, said his data shows that most Americans who have cast ballots in person are high-propensity voters. That means, he said, that they aren’t necessarily new voters. They are often people who previously voted on Election Day, or by mail in 2020, and are now opting to cast their ballots early.
McDonald also warned against drawing too many conclusions from early-voting numbers, whether low or high, because reporting lags are common.
He said the real test of whether Trump’s message has fully penetrated his base is whether the numbers remain strong over the next two weeks. One factor is likely to work against him: Younger voters tend to cast their ballots much later, and they will skew for Harris.
“That’s happened every cycle since I’ve been watching,” he said.
Even as Trump has embraced early in-person voting, his message has been more mixed on mail voting, which he has continued to criticize even as he has occasionally encouraged his supporters to use it.
In a recent Fox interview, Trump said he was not confident in the election because of mail voting but added that he did not want to discourage people from voting that way.
At a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, in August, he said, “We want to get rid of mail-in voting.” In North Carolina, he has encouraged those displaced by Hurricane Helene to request mail ballots wherever they are temporarily living and has even asked state election officials to make it easier for displaced voters to return their ballots to their home counties.
In Pennsylvania, Republican officials have actively encouraged their supporters to vote by mail, investing millions in get-out-the-vote efforts. But they have also filed lawsuits seeking to throw out mail-in ballots over technicalities, such as putting the wrong date on the ballot envelope.

At an event Sunday in suburban Milwaukee, Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance called for supporters to cast ballots “in every single way that they can” — even as he expressed reservations about early voting.
“I don’t like election season,” Vance said. “I like Election Day, but as Donald Trump has said, it is what it is. And if the Democrats are going to use every method of voting possible, then the Republicans, we’ve got to do it too.”
That mixed message appears to be having an impact on returns. In states that track the party affiliation of returned ballots, Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans among mailed ballots, just as they did in 2020.
In Nevada, where preliminary data shows that about 250,000 voters have cast ballots so far, Democrats represent 43 percent of returned mail ballots while Republicans account for about 30 percent.

Republican in-person turnout, meanwhile, is ahead of where it was four years ago. In Nevada, the GOP share of in-person totals was 52 percent as of late Monday, whereas the Democratic share was 28 percent.
In Pennsylvania, more than 1 million mail-in ballots had been returned as of Tuesday morning. Of that total, about 650,000 are Democrats, 300,000 are Republicans, and 100,000 are neither. In 2020, more than 2.6 million Pennsylvanians returned mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, which could prove problematic for Trump since Republican voters are not flocking to mail voting, McDonald said.
Seth Bluestein, a Philadelphia city commissioner, said that in elections since the pandemic, more voters have returned to casting their ballots on Election Day. “I don’t think we can draw any conclusions about voter enthusiasm from the early mail ballots,” he said. “A lot of voters plan to vote in person, so I don’t think there is any comparative election we could look at.”
Elsewhere the data is harder to read, and experts cautioned that in all states, early returns should be examined cautiously because trends can easily reverse themselves. This year brings unique challenges in interpreting the numbers because the 2020 vote, held amid lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, was so exceptional.

In Arizona, about half a million voters had cast their ballots as of Sunday, according to data tracked by Phoenix-based Democratic consultant Sam Almy. Republicans, who hold a registration advantage in the state, were nearly on pace with early ballot returns compared with four years ago, while Democrats were far behind.

But Almy and others cautioned that before the pandemic, Democrats were known to drop off their mail ballots on Election Day, while Republicans typically put their ballots in the mail.

“Either Republicans are coming back to what their traditional performance looked like, or Democrats are significantly underperforming,” said Republican consultant and pollster Paul Bentz. Bottom line, he said: It’s too soon to draw any conclusions.
 

TL/DR  Republicans and Democrats are both voting early this year.

Edited by PhillyD
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Posted
1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

For the last time: I am not saying Trump will be better on Gaza. In fact, I believe he will be worse.1

I am merely saying that reasonable people, based on a reasonable assessment of the information available to them, could conclude that he can’t be worse and that a change might improve things. And those same people might reasonably conclude, as a matter of moral principles, that they cannot support someone from an administration that has supported Israel in its Gaza actions. 2

1) I’m not sure why some are arguing this point with you

2) It’s worth pointing out that Hamas sponsors understand this, and it was part of the reason they sent Hamas on an errand that has badly damaged the Palestinian cause and killed many innocent Palestinians. 
 

No one on earth woke up on October 8th and said “this attack benefits Palestine.” It didn’t even make sense for Hamas. The biggest geopolitical beneficiaries were Iran and Russia, in that it would weaken the pillars that hold up the world. I hope that as Arab Americans vote they  understand that Israel is not acting as a US proxy in Gaza, and the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris are not Israel’s proxy in Michigan.

 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Trump really is gonna get a chunk of latino/black male voters.  It's the stupid fucking meathead vote.  I've seen it all over.  Fucking ridiculous but more stupid people voting for stupid.  Hard to fight that. 

 

Well, straight males/men in general—something is just wrong. The White Gays aren’t far behind.

 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

Wait, I thought all Americans were supposed to have military-style weapons.  Aren't these illegals just assimilating?

Oh, it's different when "they" have them.

I see.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Helobious said:

IMG_4845.thumb.jpeg.66f8b0187c617c8ba181a5f9752bfc4c.jpeg

Obviously 538's analysis shows Trump with a slightly better chance to win but I think anything lower than 60-40 is effectively a tie.  They're saying that in 100 simulations Harris only wins 49 times. In other words, it's a coin flip.

And I would state the same if Harris was up 51-49 in their prediction.

Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Obviously 538's analysis shows Trump with a slightly better chance to win but I think anything lower than 60-40 is effectively a tie.  They're saying that in 100 simulations Harris only wins 49 times. In other words, it's a coin flip.

And I would state the same if Harris was up 51-49 in their prediction.

538 isn't exempt from the same garbage in, garbage out as other models.  When you start plugging in right wing polling, that has dominated any A+ mainstream polling in the last week, this is what you get.  If GOP firms drop 80% of the polling, the model only has 20% good data and 80% crappy data.

SAME EXACT THING THAT HAPPENED IN 2022.  

I tend to agree with G Elliot Morris (and he's a Horn, so gotta support him) - Harris is about 55% right now based on fundamentals.  More enthusiasm, much better liked, economy is strong, etc. 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Lol 

Yep, they always start to crow about winning VA, CO, NM, etc

Huh, that's weird. Because the Democrats are cancelling Ad buys en masse in competitive states due to confidence.   That suggest to me the opposite:  Dems have locked down their competitive seats and expanding the field in the GOP leans because of what they are seeing internally and on the ground. 

Maybe we will see unprecedented ticket splitting, but if Dems were collapsing on the ground, you'd think they would be pouring money into the the House to try and hold the line.  

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Huh, that's weird. Because the Democrats are cancelling Ad buys en masse in competitive states due to confidence.   That suggest to me the opposite:  Dems have locked down their competitive seats and expanding the field in the GOP leans because of what they are seeing internally and on the ground. 

Yeah, duh.  Follow the money and where people are going, not what some GOP operative on Twitter says. 

Harris wouldn't be making a trip to Houston this late in the cycle unless their internal polling has Allred in striking distance and a visit could fire up Harris County Dems to push him over the top.  

She is making a late visit somewhere that helps a downballot candidate.  Trump's trips to Coachella, Aurora, New York City, etc. doesn't help anyone downballot.  He didn't feature Garvey at all, there's no governor or Senate race in CO/NY and he didn't feature any of the tossup House candidates in NY/CO/CA. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
7 minutes ago, PhillyD said:

Washington Post Article on early voting.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/

 

  Hide contents

In states that track the party affiliation of returned ballots, Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans among mailed ballots, just as they did in 2020.


In Nevada, where preliminary data shows that about 250,000 voters have cast ballots so far, Democrats represent 43 percent of returned mail ballots while Republicans account for about 30 percent.

In Pennsylvania, more than 1 million mail-in ballots had been returned as of Tuesday morning. Of that total, about 650,000 are Democrats, 300,000 are Republicans, and 100,000 are neither. In 2020, more than 2.6 million Pennsylvanians returned mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, which could prove problematic for Trump since Republican voters are not flocking to mail voting, McDonald said.


In Arizona, about half a million voters had cast their ballots as of Sunday, according to data tracked by Phoenix-based Democratic consultant Sam Almy. Republicans, who hold a registration advantage in the state, were nearly on pace with early ballot returns compared with four years ago, while Democrats were far behind.

But Almy and others cautioned that before the pandemic, Democrats were known to drop off their mail ballots on Election Day, while Republicans typically put their ballots in the mail.

TL/DR  Republicans and Democrats are both voting early this year.

That article leaves out and minimizes certain information to tell the story it wants to about a supposedly close horse race. Only 20 percent of 2020 mail-ins have been counted in AZ while in PA it's over 40% of 2020's total.

Posted
Just now, Chopper said:

That article leaves out and minimizes certain information to tell the story it wants to about a supposedly close horse race. Only 20 percent of 2020 mail-ins have been counted in AZ while in PA it's over 40% of 2020's total.

Early Voting info, like registrations, doesn't tell the untrained eye all that much, tbh. 

Posted (edited)

Another point about the acknowledged flaws of 538's analysis is that they correctly predicted Biden AND had him 89-11 to win. They were right but a couple of thousands votes here and there, Trump would have won. In addition, they and the polls were completely wrong about 2016.

Because of those flaws, I could see the idea that unless 538 is 100-0 or 99-1, it's too close to call given the margins of error.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Maybe we will see unprecedented ticket splitting, but if Dems were collapsing on the ground, you'd think they would be pouring money into the the House to try and hold the line.  

This (2 weeks out) is usually when the panic starts and you start seeing  anonymous operatives screaming about warning signs on the ground in competitive/tossup districts. And Dems LOVE to panic and tell people about it.

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Posted
1 minute ago, South Austin said:

We better start Arch Manning from here on out or we'll never win another game this season!!!!

You laugh, but this board is going to be as bad as the football one was Saturday night, except for the next 2 weeks. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We better start Arch Manning from here on out or we'll never win another game this season!!!!

The only place on this board having a more little bitch moment is the Football sub 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This (2 weeks out) is usually when the panic starts and you start seeing  anonymous operatives screaming about warning signs on the ground in competitive/tossup districts. And Dems LOVE to panic and tell people about it.

In Politico Pro, the only outside expenditures I'm seeing in Nebraska CD-2 are all Red Superpacs. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

In Politico Pro, the only outside expenditures I'm seeing in Nebraska CD-2 are all Red Superpacs. 

The Politico article from last week said GOP has pretty much written off Bacon/NE-02 and a bunch of California House GOPers, like Mike Garcia.  And that they are doing everything they can to save Michelle Steel, including pulling resources from Garcia.

Bacon and Garcia both survived 2020, yet we are 2 weeks out and the NRCC is like "lol you're on your own" 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The Politico article from last week said GOP has pretty much written off Bacon/NE-02 and a bunch of California House GOPers, like Mike Garcia.  And that they are doing everything they can to save Michelle Steel, including pulling resources from Garcia.

Bacon and Garcia both survived 2020, yet we are 2 weeks out and the NRCC is like "lol you're on your own" 

Like I said, Trump is a unique political entitity, but if you follow the money, the Democrats look like they are feeling good. Doesn't mean Harris isn't going to hit me up for the 50th time today, but the money doesn't lie.  It doesn't always tell a compelete story, but it doesn't lie. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I have no idea how you blackmail someone that leads a cult and has absolutely no shame.

You threaten him with info that will send him to jail for the rest of his life. 

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Posted
Just now, austingirl said:

You threaten him with info that will send him to jail for the rest of his life. 

Bingo. Like all the bank transactions you made on his behalf to buy him, and of which you have receipts. And probably a video or two of some live boys and dead girls for good measure. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I can't speak for Arab Americans, but my experience with Iranians is that a lot of them like Trump as well. 

My stab at why: They don't necessarily have an issue with a dictatorship or a fascist, power hungry leader. They think there is a possibility of good ones and bad ones. And they think Trump would do good. 

 

 

This is so absurd and way off. I can speak for Persians.

 

Iranian diaspora are in the US because Iran has been held hostage by the islamic republic. Both diaspora and the large majority of Iranians in Iran are anti-regime and want the islamic dictatorship overthrown. Traditionally Iranian diaspora have been democrat leaning but things have changed in the 20 years. First there was the 2008 green movement in Iran against the government, Obama did not support them in any way. In fact, Obama made the Iran deal which  is very unpopular with Iranians because that only helped loosen sanctions and get the regime more money. Furthermore, Biden did the same thing, he allowed lots funds to be freed to the regime which is only used to terrorize the iranian people and the middle east. He also did not support the iranian people in any way duing the 2022 uprising. Trump on the other hand did some things that are very popular with Iranians. One he ordered the killing of the IRGC general Solemeini, an act celebrated by Iranians to this day. We would piss on his grave if we could. Second he got rid of the Iran nuclear deal, and third he put the IRGC on the terrorist list. Democrats have helped the islamic republic and republicans have hurt them. Even Jimmy Carter is hated to this day for his role in helping them get into power.

 

Now I'm not a moron in a cult so i'm not voting for Trump, but generally speaking it would benefit me to vote republican if I was solely focused on helping Iran be free.

Edited by thepop
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Posted
15 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Early Voting info, like registrations, doesn't tell the untrained eye all that much, tbh. 

Early voting definitely tells you about expected OVERALL turnout. Correct me if I'm wrong but there's a proven correlation between the two. In concert with other statistics like new registrations, once you have enough data, I begin to form my own opinions. I like what I'm seeing in GA and PA. In AZ there's not enough data. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Like I said, Trump is a unique political entitity, but if you follow the money, the Democrats look like they are feeling good. Doesn't mean Harris isn't going to hit me up for the 50th time today, but the money doesn't lie.  It doesn't always tell a compelete story, but it doesn't lie. 

You hearing things in DC? 

Where's @quigley and @Ghost of LL with that good $9.95 insider shit? 

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Posted
Just now, Chopper said:

In AZ there's not enough data. 

Lest we all forgot

"MARICOPA INCOMING" 

For days. Because god fucking damn, is AZ slow with mail.  AP didn't call Arizona's Senate race in 2022 until Friday. It was Nov 14/15 when they finally called it for Hobbs over Lake too.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, thepop said:

This is so absurd and way off. I can speak for Persians.

 

Iranian diaspora are in the US because Iran has been held hostage by the islamic republic. Both diaspora and the large majority of Iranians in Iran are anti-regime and want the islamic dictatorship overthrown. Traditionally Iranian diaspora have been democrat leaning but things have changed in the 20 years. First there was the 2008 green movement in Iran against the government, Obama did not support them in any way. In fact, Obama made the Iran deal which  is very unpopular with Iranians because that only helped loosen sanctions and get the regime more money. Furthermore, Biden did the same thing, he allowed lots funds to be freed to the regime which is only used to terrorize the iranian people and the middle east. He also did not support the iranian people in any way duing the 2022 uprising. Trump on the other hand did some things that are very popular with Iranians. One he ordered the killing of the IRGC general Solemeini, an act celebrated by Iranians to this day. We would piss on his grave if we could. Second he got rid of the Iran nuclear deal, and third he put the IRGC on the terrorist list. Democrats have helped the islamic republic and republicans have hurt them. Even Jimmy Carter is hated to this day for his role in helping them get into power.

 

Now I'm not a moron in a cult so i'm not voting for Trump, but generally speaking it would benefit me to vote republican if I was solely focused on helping Iran be free.

Would Trump declaring war on Iran qualify under the umbrella of "helping Iran to be free?" That's an honest question, by the way. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You hearing things in DC? 

Where's @quigley and @Ghost of LL with that good $9.95 insider shit? 

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

Edited by Bateshorn
Posted
26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, duh.  Follow the money and where people are going, not what some GOP operative on Twitter says. 

Harris wouldn't be making a trip to Houston this late in the cycle unless their internal polling has Allred in striking distance and a visit could fire up Harris County Dems to push him over the top.  

She is making a late visit somewhere that helps a downballot candidate.  Trump's trips to Coachella, Aurora, New York City, etc. doesn't help anyone downballot.  He didn't feature Garvey at all, there's no governor or Senate race in CO/NY and he didn't feature any of the tossup House candidates in NY/CO/CA. 

Also, it sounds like the Houston rally will focus on abortion and the harm Texas' abortion laws have wreaked on women. That could help both statewide and nationally.

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Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

bluesky video won't embed here (AHEM!) so you'll just have to use your imagination

image.png.112a908d0680c9b7030ee7f113c15955.png

"Walz said one slightly naughty word while Trump obsesses about Arnold Palmer's Huge Dong.  Why that's bad for Harris."

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