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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
4 hours ago, MrBig said:

I finally saw the whole clip and I don’t think he realizes he’s even doing the blow job with the mic. This could be the straw that breaks the homophobes backs. 

 

He sucks dick on the down-low just like us!

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Posted (edited)

Trump has hosted SNL twice, once during his 2015 campaign.

Candidates have made cameo appearances on SNL but I’m not aware of any other candidate that has hosted.

Edited by Texas Jeff
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Posted
2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Brendan Thomas Carr (born January 5, 1979) is an American lawyer who has served as a member of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) since 2017.[7] Appointed to the position by Donald Trump, Carr previously served as the agency's general counsel and as an aide to FCC commissioner Ajit Pai. In private practice, Carr formerly worked as a telecommunications attorney at Wiley Rein.[8]

Carr supports changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act and opposes net neutrality protections.[9][10] Carr is noted for his support for banning TikTok on national security grounds.[11][12] In office, Carr has been noted for being unusually vocal about public policy issues for a regulatory appointee, accusing House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff of overseeing a “secret and partisan surveillance machine”.[13]

Carr is an opponent of net neutrality protections and has endorsed efforts to reform Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.[24][10]

Carr vehemently opposed efforts to block the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk.[25]

In 2023, Carr authored the chapter on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 book, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.[26][27] In the chapter, Carr proposes "reining in Big Tech" as one of the main goals for the FCC.[28]

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Posted
7 hours ago, Chopper said:

Is that Iowa poll real? How could it be? Hmmm...

 

image.thumb.png.7f93b0e652334ed057b057907ed439f0.png

Yeah thinking that Dobbs is old news is a huuuuuge mistake.  It's a bit lower profile, but it's now at the state phase and getting real.

I can't wait for some backlash in state elections, where the christofascism has been more subtle and effective.

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Posted

Their argument this morning?

Kamala’s cold open skit on SNL was plagiarized because turnip did it first. This means she the campaign is in frantic mode because she has nothing left for the voters.

 

 

You cannot make this shit up. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Their argument this morning?

Kamala’s cold open skit on SNL was plagiarized because turnip did it first. This means she the campaign is in frantic mode because she has nothing left for the voters.

 

 

You cannot make this shit up. 

Also find it quite amusing that for all the Federal agencies and regulatory bodies they want to dismantle with Project 2025...they absolutely love the FCC right now and are begging them to drop the hammer on NBC...

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Posted
1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

Trump has hosted SNL twice, once during his 2015 campaign.

Candidates have made cameo appearances on SNL but I’m not aware of any other candidate that has hosted.

Trump calls into Fox & Friends seemingly weekly.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Harris is not losing white women 

I agree with you but...

- Hillary Clinton lost white women

- it's a poll --> and polls suck

Posted
22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Those are fantastic for her 

PA/MI aren’t ties. Michigan will be the bluest of the blue wall states. 

100% everything breaking late for her. Reverse 2016, optically 

The LEAST LIKELY outcome this time is 5 of 7 states within a point or two (as the polling averages have them). Herding + bad process.

As you've said, 1/3 of the total ballots have been cast and > 90% people say they know who their voting for. There aren't 4-5 point swings to be made. This last minute publishing of a Harris push is for clicks.

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Posted
Just now, TexasHooch said:

image.png.0f919647645c425e9127bbea2e2c506f.png

There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices.

As I'm sure it's been mentioned, if Harris is close in IA, it's a harbinger that WI and OH and PA are all really good.

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Posted
1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

Brendan Thomas Carr (born January 5, 1979) is an American lawyer who has served as a member of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) since 2017.[7] Appointed to the position by Donald Trump, Carr previously served as the agency's general counsel and as an aide to FCC commissioner Ajit Pai. In private practice, Carr formerly worked as a telecommunications attorney at Wiley Rein.[8]

Carr supports changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act and opposes net neutrality protections.[9][10] Carr is noted for his support for banning TikTok on national security grounds.[11][12] In office, Carr has been noted for being unusually vocal about public policy issues for a regulatory appointee, accusing House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff of overseeing a “secret and partisan surveillance machine”.[13]

Serious question: can we impeach these fuckers? 

How can we talk of "equal time" in a world where Fox has existed for 35 years?

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Posted
2 minutes ago, quigley said:

There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices.

As I'm sure it's been mentioned, if Harris is close in IA, it's a harbinger that WI and OH and PA are all really good.

@Al_4_ISU is this true? I agree that the tariff effect on farmers hasn't been much of a national argument, but what's it like on the ground there?

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Posted
58 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah thinking that Dobbs is old news is a huuuuuge mistake.  It's a bit lower profile, but it's now at the state phase and getting real.

I can't wait for some backlash in state elections, where the christofascism has been more subtle and effective.

So much gold this morning.

FL, I see you.

Posted
1 hour ago, Post Oak said:

Kamala is at the gates

I mean, it's Dobbs ("dog catches car"), but also, hopefully, America has figured out that they can have reality TV on TV and not in politics.

Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

A last bit of food for thought, what if Selzer is wrong?  But not in the way we all knee-jerked to, i.e. within her margin or error of 3; instead of 47 in Iowa it'd be 50.  

 

Now that friends, would be a lot of fun.  

whats-the-big-deal-with-the-selzer-poll-

 

Don't care. If Selzer's off by 5 and Trump wins IA by 2, Harris will win WI, PA, and maybe OH (!?!?)

More importantly, Dems win Senate races in WI, PA, MI, OH. Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA.

GOP needs to win Senate races in NE, MT, TX, and FL. Those aren't all independent of each other so I'd put the likelihood of Senate staying 50-50 as better than even.

Edited by quigley
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Posted

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941

 

Quote

The British are a-coming. This time, they’re wielding a new polling technique with a huge survey sample that some say is more accurate than anything currently in widespread use in U.S. politics — and it’s tentatively predicting a Kamala Harris win.

Focaldata, a U.K. polling company, questioned more than 31,000 voters across the United States over the past month for an innovative type of survey called “MRP” that has become influential in Britain in recent years. The results were shared exclusively with POLITICO.

 

Quote

Combining the MRP results with their large-scale online swing state polling Focaldata assesses Harris is likely to take Michigan, with a lead of nearly 5 points, Nevada with a lead of about 2 points over Trump, and with a slight edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Focaldata research suggests Trump just scraping past Harris in Georgia and North Carolina. The polling data and MRP modeling are split on Arizona.

 

Quote

Harris’ advantage comes in part from her strong appeal to older white women, a historically right-leaning group. Trump has made gains with younger Black and Hispanic men.

“Our MRP model has shown a Trump win throughout the campaign and only in the final update has it nudged Democrat,” said James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer.

Even though the research points to a Democratic victory emerging from Tuesday’s election, the researchers remain wary of nailing their colors to the mast. That’s not unusual in a contest that’s become defined by the phrase “toss-up.”

 

Spoiler

“We are ‘lean Democrat’, but only by the barest of margins,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO. “Even a polling error a third of the size seen in 2016 and 2020 would put Trump back in the White House.”

MRP — which stands for “multilevel regression and post-stratification” — is a statistical model that pollsters use to estimate state-level election results. It takes a massive nationwide sample and then uses demographic data to estimate seat or state-level outcomes.

The method — which gained the moniker of “mega poll” — burst onto the scene in the U.K. in 2017 by correctly predicting Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament at a time when most polls suggested she would win big.

At this year’s general election in the U.K., MRP surveys also dominated the polling coverage, with many predicting that Keir Starmer’s Labour would win a huge victory and the Conservatives would crash to a historic defeat. Even so, the MRP projections in the U.K. were mixed, with some a long way off the final election results.

Backers of the method say it is likely to be even more effective in the U.S. where there are only 50 states. In Britain, the MRP model needs to produce forecasts for 650 constituencies represented in Westminster’s parliament, a more complicated operation.

Focaldata has been working on the U.S. polls for months. According to swing state polls, conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October, Trump had a big lead on handling the most important issues facing the nation. Among the four in 10 voters who chose immigration as a top issue, Trump led Harris by 74 points as the best placed candidate to handle it.

He was also ahead on how he would deal with inflation and the cost of living, jobs, tax crime and national security. The vice president led Trump on climate change, abortion, democracy and healthcare, among other issues. But Harris’ strengths lay in areas that voters less frequently named as the top issues facing the country.

Focaldata’s two data streams – state-level polling and MRP modeling – produced marginally different results. The MRP results were slightly less favorable to Harris than polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, but better for her in Arizona and Nevada. The company thinks the likeliest outcomes are between the state polling and MRP modeling.

U.S. election pollsters in recent times have had a mixed record. They underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020 and also largely missed the Democratic Party’s strength in the 2022 midterm elections.

This time, according to Focaldata’s research, the pollsters may be “herding” — clustering their results around the idea that the race is 50-50 in order to avoid looking like they’re wrong. Some analysts have suggested the polls could even be understating support for Harris.

Analysis by Focaldata showed clear grouping of poll results in the middle of the distribution chart, suggesting the contest is virtually tied. There was a strange lack of “outlier” results showing a clear win for either candidate that would normally be expected from time to time.

“We, along with others, have seen evidence of herding among pollsters at this election — likely out of fear of underestimating Trump for a third cycle in a row,” said Kanagasooriam. “The result is the current public polling is … displaying much too high levels of confidence in a close race when we are a normal-sized polling error away from a clear victory for either candidate.”

In other words, it is totally possible that the election isn’t going to be close at all, despite what the pollsters are saying.

Another British polling firm, YouGov, made the running with the use of MRP models almost a decade ago. They bucked the trend in 2016 by correctly predicting both the shock Trump win and the unexpected U.K. Brexit referendum vote to leave the European Union in the same year.

But their results were so out of keeping with expectations that YouGov didn’t trumpet them in the public, recalled Joe Twyman, who was working at YouGov at the time.

YouGov’s 2017 MRP that predicted the loss of May’s majority in the U.K. election of that year “suddenly convinced people who should have known better … that MRP was some sort of magic bullet, that it could see things that other polls couldn’t,” Twyman told POLITICO. In the elections that followed, more and more pollsters produced their own MRPs. But in fact, these models are just as fallible as more conventional polling, said Twyman.

“There are good MRPs and bad MRPs, just like there are good polls and bad polls,” he said. “Polling is about asking the right people the right questions in the right way at the right time, and if you get those elements wrong, if you’ve asked the wrong questions, then it doesn’t matter how good your MRP is, it isn’t going to fix it.”

 

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Posted
7 hours ago, MrBig said:

I finally saw the whole clip and I don’t think he realizes he’s even doing the blow job with the mic. This could be the straw that breaks the homophobes backs. 

 

This clip + the almost falling while trying to get in a truck are how I want him to be remembered.

CLOWN. FUCKING. SHOW.

Posted
6 minutes ago, quigley said:

whats-the-big-deal-with-the-selzer-poll-

 

Don't care. If Selzer's off by 5 and Trump wins IA by 2, Harris will win WI, PA, and maybe OH (!?!?)

More importantly, Dems win Senate races in WI, PA, MI, OH. Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA.

GOP needs to win Senate races in NE, MT, TX, and FL. Those aren't all independent of each other so I'd put the likelihood of Senate staying 50-50 as better than even.

I was talking about Sezler being potential light on her Democratic support, i.e, not Harris+3 but Harris +6.  But valid point nonetheless.  

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