Jump to content

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Or...

 

 

The Trump Plaza demolition needs to be part of an ad dramatizing how fallible he is.

Edited by quigley
  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

There's also a group of reportedly close statewide races in NC

Yes, you missed the GOP's "Leading Thinker and Moralist" and anti-immigration enthusiast, Chris Rufo, getting discovered for having an Ashley Madison account to cheat on his wife, who migrated to the US illegally. He's one of the main guys who writes on behalf of the GOP's racist and christian fascism.  

This affair also involved a reporter. If you search Axios and the Rep's name you'll find her because she wrote a bunch of articles about him

image.png.4c6c70306ff7e96baafd374266741b68.png

 

Russia has to assume all American congressmen are marks for honeypot operations. If it weren't so important, it would be comedy.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Wasn't this engagement called off long ago?

Not based on what various journos were saying last night but I have no idea. Honestly her cheating on him, or not, is not even part of the story we should care about. It's the way she tilted not only her coverage but probably influenced others. 

edit - someone posted a video back on page 728 of a short clip of her speaking and there's definitely notable body language to read as she speaks.

Edited by Chopper
Posted
1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

... which, if Texas' little experiment with hand counts is indicative, means certified results from Georgia should be ready just in time for Christmas, but with the state giving up on getting the same number in two consecutive counts and instead reporting them as +/- 2500 for each county.  

BTW - worth a read if you haven't read it as it's equal parts hilarious and infuriating, especially when coupled with the fact that it apparently ended up costing the county 2x as much for less accuracy.

Errors raise questions about Texas hand vote count | The Texas Tribune

 

Worse efficiency is a feature not a bug. A central goal of autocrats is to weaken trust in systems.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Rage+1 1
Posted (edited)

Something I want to clear up regarding 2020 polling: 2020 polling was actually quite accurate when it came to Biden's final vote share.  The issue was Trump's numbers were low and whether it was lockdowns or BLM or whatever, most undecided voters picked him late in the cycle. 

Final averages for Biden and vote total for Biden (all via 538):

Arizona - 48.7 -> 49.36
Georgia - 48.5 -> 49.47
Michigan - 51.2 -> 50.62
Nevada - 49.7 -> 50.06
NC - 48.9 -> 48.59
PA - 50.2 -> 49.85
Wisconsin - 52.1 -> 49.45

Swing state average: 49.9 -> 49.63. They were incredibly close on Biden's margin number everywhere but Wisconsin (and it wasn't THAT egregious), when looking at the 7 swing states.  

Cook nails it - 51-44 means there's 5% undecided.   Biden won 51.3 - 46.9, meaning most of them broke late to Trump. 

What you are seeing now is a lot fewer undecided voters who will break late.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-repeat-performance-late-deciding-voters

Prior to the elections this year, polls showed Joe Biden dancing around the 50 percent threshold. The final RealClearPolitics poll average had Biden ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. Fox News had the race at 52-44, while NBC News/Washington Post put it at 52-42. Now, as of late Thursday afternoon, the actual national popular-vote count gives Biden 50.8 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, a 3.4-point margin. It would seem, then, that much of the polling came close to nailing Biden’s share of the vote but in the end the undecided voters broke for Trump, as they did four years ago.

This column speculated last week that a slice of voters who seemed intent on voting not just against Trump but also to punish his party may have had second thoughts about putting Democrats in charge of everything.

This year, the undecideds broke moderately back toward Trump, making the race closer than it seemed to be earlier, but not enough to save him from losing five states he won in 2016—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. In congressional elections, the undecideds clearly broke toward Republicans, with some who cast ballots for Biden coming back over to vote for GOP candidates for the House and Senate.

What could have triggered the bout of cold feet among this narrow but apparently pivotal slice of voters? Could it have been all this talk of socialism, defunding police, Medicare-for-all, racial tension, or episodes of urban violence over the summer? Research by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg points in that direction. Toss in, perhaps, some fear that a Democratic president and big Democratic majorities would, if they couldn’t win the game, simply change the rules by packing the Supreme Court or ending the Senate filibuster. In any case, the drop-off in votes from Biden to votes for Democratic House candidates was about 4.2 million nationwide; for Republicans, it was only about 1.8 million.

Edited by Js1
  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Posted

image.thumb.png.3413fa4ff825e46ee0f32bd1c67b4986.png
Starting to see some real separation on the betting markets.  Of note, this doesn’t include PredictIt, where Harris is up 57-45   Real clear polling just decided to remove them from their average about a week ago when Kamala went up 10.  No explanation given (they included them for years).  

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Of note, this doesn’t include PredictIt, where Harris is up 57-45   Real clear polling just decided to remove them from their average about a week ago when Kamala went up 10.  No explanation given (they included them for years).  

RCP is Republicans Cherry Picking.  They definitely won't include things that seriously hurt Trump. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

She don’t got Herschel Walker. Checkmate

To be fair, Herschel endorsed Captain Crunch, because of his proven leadership and history of military service.

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

It took two hours by hand count to confirm that 3-2 vote.

This checks out, because most Republicans are only capable of counting to potato.

1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

you see the filter is a metaphor

b95baa2c-ff01-4106-96fd-6eed7f5eaa9b_tex

Also....I am firmly on team "change your own goddamned air filter."  FFS.  Nothing pisses me off more than getting an oil change, and they come in to pitch (usually to a woman) "hey, your filter is filthy, you need to change it, we can do that for $70."  First, more often than not, it's fine and doesn't need to be changed (air filters only look pristine for a few hundred miles).  Second....even if it does need changing, you can buy one, screw or click open the mount for it, replace it, and be done in under 5 minutes.  Do it yourself. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Second....even if it does need changing, you can buy one, screw or click open the mount for it, replace it, and be done in under 5 minutes.  Do it yourself. 

Wait . . . let me get a note pad.  Okay, say that again.

  • Haha 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

here's the full 2+ min ad.  

the cruise control on the Scout is some pretty creative engineering...

Welp, there goes the Jiffy Lube manager vote.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 5
Posted
Just now, Radical Larry said:

Check your cabin air filter too. Not a euphemism. 

In my old car, slightly harder to change than the engine air filter....but not much.  Maybe a 7 minute job, mostly because I had to empty all that accumulated papers and shit outta my glove box.

Bet Tim coulda done it in 4 minutes.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Not really.  Felons can't vote, dude.

Man, come on, if it weren't for felons, illegal aliens, and dead people, the Libs would've never won an election.  I seent it on Jesse Watters.

  • Haha 1
Posted
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

In my old car, slightly harder to change than the engine air filter....but not much.  Maybe a 7 minute job, mostly because I had to empty all that accumulated papers and shit outta my glove box.

Bet Tim coulda done it in 4 minutes.

Tim keeps his glove box pristine.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

He strikes me as a leatherbound notebook with the manual and registration in it kind of guy.

Tim is 100% the kind of guy who 1) keeps his Scout perfectly clean, pristine, and uncluttered, yet 2) if you ask him if he has a 57/64 socket you can borrow, he pops the back open and can hand it to you immediately.  Where did it come from?  Why would he even HAVE such an odd size handy?  Beats the hell outta me, but he now only has it, he knows exactly where it is so he can hand it to you without looking.

Edited by Brisketexan
  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Haha 4
  • Drool 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Something I want to clear up regarding 2020 polling: 2020 polling was actually quite accurate when it came to Biden's final vote share.  The issue was Trump's numbers were low and whether it was lockdowns or BLM or whatever, most undecided voters picked him late in the cycle. 

Final averages for Biden and vote total for Biden (all via 538):

Arizona - 48.7 -> 49.36
Georgia - 48.5 -> 49.47
Michigan - 51.2 -> 50.62
Nevada - 49.7 -> 50.06
NC - 48.9 -> 48.59
PA - 50.2 -> 49.85
Wisconsin - 52.1 -> 49.45

Swing state average: 49.9 -> 49.63. They were incredibly close on Biden's margin number everywhere but Wisconsin (and it wasn't THAT egregious), when looking at the 7 swing states.  

Cook nails it - 51-44 means there's 5% undecided.   Biden won 51.3 - 46.9, meaning most of them broke late to Trump. 

What you are seeing now is a lot fewer undecided voters who will break late.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-repeat-performance-late-deciding-voters

Prior to the elections this year, polls showed Joe Biden dancing around the 50 percent threshold. The final RealClearPolitics poll average had Biden ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. Fox News had the race at 52-44, while NBC News/Washington Post put it at 52-42. Now, as of late Thursday afternoon, the actual national popular-vote count gives Biden 50.8 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, a 3.4-point margin. It would seem, then, that much of the polling came close to nailing Biden’s share of the vote but in the end the undecided voters broke for Trump, as they did four years ago.

This column speculated last week that a slice of voters who seemed intent on voting not just against Trump but also to punish his party may have had second thoughts about putting Democrats in charge of everything.

This year, the undecideds broke moderately back toward Trump, making the race closer than it seemed to be earlier, but not enough to save him from losing five states he won in 2016—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. In congressional elections, the undecideds clearly broke toward Republicans, with some who cast ballots for Biden coming back over to vote for GOP candidates for the House and Senate.

What could have triggered the bout of cold feet among this narrow but apparently pivotal slice of voters? Could it have been all this talk of socialism, defunding police, Medicare-for-all, racial tension, or episodes of urban violence over the summer? Research by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg points in that direction. Toss in, perhaps, some fear that a Democratic president and big Democratic majorities would, if they couldn’t win the game, simply change the rules by packing the Supreme Court or ending the Senate filibuster. In any case, the drop-off in votes from Biden to votes for Democratic House candidates was about 4.2 million nationwide; for Republicans, it was only about 1.8 million.

thatsbait.gif.

 

pick the worst polling year in 40 years and figure out how to say it was actually quite good, 

YARN | from a certain point of view. | Star Wars: Episode VI ...

Posted
26 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

He strikes me as a leatherbound notebook with the manual and registration in it kind of guy.

Plus the manilla folder full of service records he keeps in the file cabinet in the guest bedroom closet. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 3
Posted
9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

thatsbait.gif.

 

pick the worst polling year in 40 years and figure out how to say it was actually quite good, 

YARN | from a certain point of view. | Star Wars: Episode VI ...

Please stop commenting on every post I make. You can bitch about the margins - they were wrong. But they nailed his vote share

If you want or think Trump will win, just say it. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 2
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Please stop commenting on every post I make. You can bitch about the margins - they were wrong. But they nailed his vote share

If you want or think Trump will win, just say it. 

i only respond to correct the record when obvious cheerleading pumps out disingenuous stuff.  if that happens to always be your posts, well then ...

Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i only respond to correct the record when obvious cheerleading pumps out disingenuous stuff.  if that happens to always be your posts, well then ...

Username checking out

Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

I mean, if it didn't stop Fitlump...🤷‍♂️

IMG_0441.gif.5bef27c221a0189c0240b322b7ee73ae.gifFunny story. She popped up on the local news up here in Dallas last night talking about Eddie Garcia’s move down there. 
 

I was like,

IMG_6169.gif.8751a4ab0fc52734f9fc08025243c01b.gif

Edited by DDD Dad
  • Haha 6
Posted
54 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

here's the full 2+ min ad.  

the cruise control on the Scout is some pretty creative engineering...

Without looking, I’d imagine cruise from that time is something that grabs the throttle cable and holds it in place. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i only respond to correct the record when obvious cheerleading pumps out disingenuous stuff.  if that happens to always be your posts, well then ...

No, you only respond to be a wet blanket baby back bitch about everything. Being the satyanash of the Cloak Room is a shtick so if that's what you're going for you're doing great. 

One way to tell that you're just crying is that you didn't respond to any of the facts, statistics, or data that were posted. You just responded with feelings. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No, you only respond to be a wet blanket baby back bitch about everything. Being the satyanash of the Cloak Room is a shtick so if that's what you're going for you're doing great. 

One way to tell that you're just crying is that you didn't respond to any of the facts, statistics, or data that were posted. You just responded with feelings. 

if you don't think there are fact/statistics to back up the polls missing in 2020, i've got very bad news for you.

Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if you don't think there are fact/statistics to back up the polls missing in 2020, i've got very bad news for you.

He is addressing a specific component of the polls, that ended up being close.  And is saying that may be a useful tool to look at for this election. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
Posted
42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Tim is 100% the kind of guy who 1) keeps his Scout perfectly clean, pristine, and uncluttered

Just the fact that truck isn't rusted out makes him a wizard.  If you listen carefully you can hear International trucks rust.  RIP my old 392 Travelall

  • Hook 'Em 8
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

It's good news, but take it with a grain of salt.  2020 had a certain reason to keep people away from in person voting.

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
  • Hook 'Em 6
  • Like 2


×
×
  • Create New...