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[DOOM THREAD] 2024 Presidential Election Thread - Oh. My. God. We may be fucked.


bolverk

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Since most of the conversation in the NH primary thread has drifted over into a discussion on the general election, and we all believe the remainder of the GOP primaries is more or less perfunctory at this point because Trump is the presumptive candidate, we can probably go ahead and get campaign talk going here.

Good overview of where things stand as of now:

Outside the soft bubble of Republican primaries, Mr. Trump’s campaign is confronting enduring vulnerabilities that make his nomination a considerable risk for his party. Those weaknesses were laid bare in New Hampshire on Tuesday, where independents, college-educated voters and Republicans unwilling to dismiss his legal jeopardy voted in large numbers for his rival, Nikki Haley.

Mr. Trump still won easily. The voters opposed to his bid didn’t outnumber the many Republicans clamoring to see him return to power. But the results, delivered by more than 310,000 voters in a politically divided state, pointed to the trouble ahead for Mr. Trump as the presidential race leaves MAGA world and enters a broader electorate, one that rejected him less than four years ago.

“When I have people come up to me who voted for Reagan in ’76 and have been conservative their whole life say that they don’t want to vote for Trump again, that’s a problem,” Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida said Tuesday in an interview with Blaze TV, a conservative media company, just a couple of days after he ended his own campaign and endorsed Mr. Trump. “So he’s got to figure out a way to solve that.”

President Biden would face his own challenges in a rematch of the 2020 contest. Unlike four years ago, Mr. Biden, 81, is widely disliked and most Americans disapprove of his job performance. Four years older than Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden is facing deep skepticism about his age and is struggling to hold onto the coalition of voters who underpinned his first victory. He has turned to issues like abortion rights and democracy, themes that resonate among his base, independents and even some moderate Republicans.

But like Mr. Trump, he faces some doubts from within his own party. Immigration, inflation and his support for Israel in its war in Gaza have chipped away at his support among young voters, Black and Latino voters, and liberals.

“The general election really starts now, and you’ve got the two most unpopular political leaders going who are going to be facing off against each other,” Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, said. “It’s a lesser-of-two-evils election.”

Rest of analysis (NYTimes): https://archive.is/zPgJV

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7 minutes ago, pacman said:

Sure, NYT lol

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If it's any consolation, most of the rest of the piece makes it sound like Trump's chances are slim. But, yeah, I'm familiar with the NYTimes pitchbot meme.

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This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL.

The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back.

160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

DgnRp.png

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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

“It’s a lesser-of-two-evils election.”

Bullshit.

People are voting against someone. Not for someone. The Biden voters are voting against the GOP and Trump in particular. The NYT doesn't like that concept and GOP pollsters especially do not want to view the election as a negative campaign because they're prone to electing highly unlikeable candidates.

Women are going to make the Republicans pay for the Dodd decision. Why do you think they do not want to talk about it? Why is it being scrubbed from websites?

Because it's wildly unpopular outside of a diminishing section of the country.

 

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9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL.

The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back.

160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

DgnRp.png

 

Those tossups seem to be a tough road for The Donald 

 

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

The way we elect the president is stupid beyond words.

 

I still can't believe we don't elect by total votes nationwide. I can't imagine how many more people would vote in that scenario 

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5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Bullshit.

People are voting against someone. Not for someone. The Biden voters are voting against the GOP and Trump in particular. The NYT doesn't like that concept and GOP pollsters especially do not want to view the election as a negative campaign because they're prone to electing highly unlikeable candidates.

Women are going to make the Republicans pay for the Dodd decision. Why do you think they do not want to talk about it? Why is it being scrubbed from websites?

Because it's wildly unpopular outside of a diminishing section of the country.

 

Dobbs? Or am I off on a completely different tangent?

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2 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Those tossups seem to be a tough road for The Donald 

4 of them have elected Dem tickets across the board in the last couple midterms (MI, AZ, WI, PA), 1 rejected a bunch of election deniers statewide (NV), and 1 elected and re-elected Dem senators in the past 4 years (GA)

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37 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL.

The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back.

160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

iDgnRp.png

The Arizona Republican Party is fucked. I doubt it will be close.

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6 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

Those tossups seem to be a tough road for The Donald 

I definitely think the apparent presumption in some circles that it will be Trump is very premature. I get Biden's approval is relatively low but you're looking for people who voted against him in the last election to flip back to Trump after he'll no doubt spend his time doing and saying insane shit on the campaign trail; and you're looking for it in large enough volume to not just erase margins of victory in 2020 but make up for cycling in of younger voters and dying off of older voters relative to 2020 that will be a net benefit to Biden.

 

4 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The Arizona Republican Party is fucked. I doubt it will be close.

Kari Lake was less than 20k votes from being governor all the same. It will be close.

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Just now, gmr548 said:

get Biden's approval is relatively low

Not for nothing, Biden’s approval among Dems in the NH primary exits was like 65/35 but their voting intention was 87/13. They don’t have to like him to vote for him 

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

Kari Lake was less than 20k votes from being governor all the same. It will be close.

They have 150K in the bank and are running people who already lost statewide races. The state party chair resigned because he was recorded trying to bribe Kari Lake to go away. Arizona doesn't reward candidates that already lost, see McSally, Martha.

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33 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

They have 150K in the bank and are running people who already lost statewide races. The state party chair resigned because he was recorded trying to bribe Kari Lake to go away. Arizona doesn't reward candidates that already lost, see McSally, Martha.

Would love to see their internal polling if they were trying to bribe Kari to go away.

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19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Would love to see their internal polling if they were trying to bribe Kari to go away.

image.png.1e2ee0a44bfbe488b96737b2c220756a.png

I haven't seen her leading a single poll even with Sinema potentially fucking around. She has no shot, but the lunatics in the state party have convinced themselves it was stolen from her. 

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7 hours ago, gmr548 said:

This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL.

The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back.

160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

DgnRp.png

I really really don’t  like Trumps chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
 

As for Arizona,  the GOP haven’t been able to win seemingly anything since they shit on John McCain. They are unbelievably incompetent.

as for Georgia, Biden only won it by 10k and it seems to be gop at heart. I just have a feeling that it might snap back to the GOP this time before demographics start to turn that state more blue. 
 

seems like the democrats always fuck up in North Carolina. Things look good. We get excited and then…..disappointment

Same story for the GOP with Nevada tho.

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4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

seems like the democrats always fuck up in North Carolina. Things look good. We get excited and then…..disappointment

Same story for the GOP with Nevada tho.

Nevada is to the GOP what NC is to the Dems. 2008 was a blip. 

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4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I really really don’t  like Trumps chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
 

As for Arizona,  the GOP haven’t been able to win seemingly anything since they shit on John McCain. They are unbelievably incompetent.

as for Georgia, Biden only won it by 10k and it seems to be gop at heart. I just have a feeling that it might snap back to the GOP this time before demographics start to turn that state more blue. 
 

seems like the democrats always fuck up in North Carolina. Things look good. We get excited and then…..disappointment

Same story for the GOP with Nevada tho.

I doubt it on Georgia, Atlanta is the strong hold, and the demographics in Atlanta have only gotten stronger in the past four years.  While Kemp did get reelected, a lot of that had to do with him being "moderate" (he isn't) in the eyes of the public.   Not saying it won't be close, but if I had to bet on it, I give Dem's Georgia by a full point.  

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13 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I doubt it on Georgia, Atlanta is the strong hold, and the demographics in Atlanta have only gotten stronger in the past four years.  While Kemp did get reelected, a lot of that had to do with him being "moderate" (he isn't) in the eyes of the public.   Not saying it won't be close, but if I had to bet on it, I give Dem's Georgia by a full point.  

Yeah, Kemp may have won, but Warnock still won by 3 in the same election cycle.  Governor races are much more fluid than federal races and can easily overcome partisan lean of the cycle- just over the past 3 cycles

  • 2022 Georgia - Kemp wins, Warnock wins
  • 2022 Nevada - Lombardo wins, CCM wins
  • 2022 Kansas - Kelly wins, Moran wins
  • 2022 Wisconsin - Evers wins, Johnson wins
  • 2020 NH - Sununu wins, Shaheen wins
  • 2018 OH - DeWine wins, Brown wins
  • 2018 Maryland - Hogan wins, Cardin wins
  • 2018 Arizona - Ducy wins, Sinema wins

A lot of people can be happy with how their state is going, but re-elect a different party nationally. 

Edited by Js1
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Florida will be more in play than usual. There is going to be an abortion referendum on the ballot and that's shown to help Dems in other states.

My guess is that Trump and the FL GOP will work overtime to not have that referendum on the ballot this year.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, Kemp may have won, but Warnock still won by 3 in the same election cycle.  Governor races are much more fluid than federal races - just over the past 3 cycles

  • 2022 Georgia - Kemp wins, Warnock wins
  • 2022 Nevada - Lombardo wins, CCM wins
  • 2022 Kansas - Kelly wins, Moran wins
  • 2022 Wisconsin - Evers wins, Johnson wins
  • 2020 NH - Sununu wins, Shaheen wins
  • 2018 OH - DeWine wins, Brown wins
  • 2018 Maryland - Hogan wins, Cardin wins
  • 2018 Arizona - Ducy wins, Sinema wins

There is one other thing I forgot to add, a lot of Georgia's Democratic push is due to advocacy of one particular group (not all of it, that would be an over simplification), and that is African American women.  I really don't think they will be less engaged this go around.  

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4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I really really don’t  like Trumps chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
 

As for Arizona,  the GOP haven’t been able to win seemingly anything since they shit on John McCain. They are unbelievably incompetent.

as for Georgia, Biden only won it by 10k and it seems to be gop at heart. I just have a feeling that it might snap back to the GOP this time before demographics start to turn that state more blue. 
 

seems like the democrats always fuck up in North Carolina. Things look good. We get excited and then…..disappointment

Same story for the GOP with Nevada tho.

Wisconsin is one of the two or three truly 50/50 states in the nation and it's not a super favorable state for Democrats, demographically. It's like 80% white and less than a third of adults have degrees. Democrats have scraped by in a couple of elections and it's not unwinnable but I don't see how it's any more than a tossup.

Michigan is similar on the education front but more diverse and a little less religious. PA slightly more diverse and less religious than MI, and is better educated; and the growth of that state is in the Philadelphia metro and eastern PA where people - particularly immigrants and racial minorities - are moving in from NY. I think you can make a credible argument that those are blue tilts, but they're close enough that they'll go as independents go and it is too early to know how that is going to break.

 

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Florida will be more in play than usual. There is going to be an abortion referendum on the ballot and that's shown to help Dems in other states.

My guess is that Trump and the FL GOP will work overtime to not have that referendum on the ballot this year.

Interesting. I didn't know that. 2023 was the best year Dems have had in FL in a while. Something to keep an eye on.

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Florida will be more in play than usual. There is going to be an abortion referendum on the ballot and that's shown to help Dems in other states.

My guess is that Trump and the FL GOP will work overtime to not have that referendum on the ballot this year.

I don’t see it unfortunately.  I grew up in FL and that is Red state now.  It was blue mostly because of the olds in South Florida but as they have died off over the years the Republicans in the panhandle, influx of Republicans from other states and the republican Cubans in Dade county have made that state Red going forward.  Similar to Ohio.  It’s not a swing state.  

Biden should spend almost all of his time in PA, MI, WI and then do a little in AZ, NV, GA, CO.  

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4 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I don’t see it unfortunately.  I grew up in FL and that is Red state now.  It was blue mostly because of the olds in South Florida but as they have died off over the years the Republicans in the panhandle, influx of Republicans from other states and the republican Cubans in Dade county have made that state Red going forward.  Similar to Ohio.  It’s not a swing state.  

Biden should spend almost all of his time in PA, MI, WI and then do a little in AZ, NV, GA, CO.  

I mean I agree it's good for POTUS to maybe sneak in a working vacation for mental health's sake but otherwise there's zero reason for that

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1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Biden should spend almost all of his time in PA, MI, WI

If you just give him those 3, it’s 270 on the dot. I just don’t see why NV would go red bc it just never does for them. So 276. 

You can offset a Wisconsin with an Arizona and still win.  

I see between 287-303 EVs for Biden - he wins Michigan, PA, AZ, NV (287) minimum, with potential to win GA and WI to get up to 303 

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If you just give him those 3, it’s 270 on the dot. I just don’t see why NV would go red bc it just never does for them. So 276. 

You can offset a Wisconsin with an Arizona and still win.  

I see between 287-303 EVs for Biden - he wins Michigan, PA, AZ, NV (287) minimum, with potential to win GA and WI to get up to 303 

If Biden threads the needle that closely, he better not forget about Omaha and it's 1 EV.  Same scenario and lose Omaha, and then the race is decided by the House vote.

I believe that NE watered down the Dem vote a bit in that district with the post 2020 gerrymandering. It may not be a given that it goes to Biden.

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6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Biden threads the needle that closely, he better not forget about Omaha and it's 1 EV.  Same scenario and lose Omaha, and then the race is decided by the House vote.

I believe that NE watered down the Dem vote a bit in that district with the post 2020 gerrymandering. It may not be a given that it goes to Biden.

Cook Political, which is pretty bullish, lists NE-02 as Likely D. 

Cook PVI is EVEN, when it was R+4 previously.  Biden won it by 7 points. 

I also do not believe he will thread the needle that closely. 

Edited by Js1
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How likely is it that Trump is left off a few ballots in a states, like Maine, which could cost electoral votes?  Could you imagine if he was kept off Maine's ballot, didn't have a chance at that 1 EV, and lost 268 to 270?  That would would be insane.

If somehow Nikki pulls off the upset and takes the nomination away from Trump, how badly does that hurt the GOP nationally?  That has to cause a significant portion of their national support to skip voting and kill their chances in a lot of narrow races downballot for the House and Senate. Unless he runs third party, which would effectively tank Haley's chances of winning. 

I'm still surprised at Biden's low approval rating, hovering around 38% right now. I thought he would be in the mid 40s with the current economy. It's only dropped about 1% since the Israel/Gaza war, which is less than I expected. Is it the border crisis that's dragging him down? Would be great to get a deal passed in Congress to address that now, so we can hopefully see some improvement in a few months. Doubtful that will happen in the current landscape though. 

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5 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Is it the border crisis that's dragging him down?

It’s messaging. The old metrics don’t work anymore. When you have GOP propaganda networks brainwashing people 247, it does not matter if Biden has invested the most in infrastructure since FDR, tackled inflation, historically low unemployment, energized Unions and worker benefits, added Finland and Sweden(soon) to NATO, and countless others 

But his approval rating sucks because he hasn’t solved immigration even though GOP won’t even vote on it. 

Game is rigged. This country is fucked 

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Nikki isn't pulling the upset.  I was wishcasting that but after Iowa and NH she should realize it is over. Can only think she is staying in and hoping that these trials will somehow shift support away from Trump but, based on polling, the initial indictments did nothing but shift support to him.  

So, here we are.  Trump v Biden.  And it's not going to be close.  Biden is going to mop the floor with a very very simple message of are you going to vote for a Felon for President?  The answer, for any non-MAGA individual, is a very clear 'no'.  No debates, no parsing of policy, no discussion of immigration, international conflicts, or inflation.  Just pure mental incompetence (#bothsides) and one felon.  

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14 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

How likely is it that Trump is left off a few ballots in a states, like Maine, which could cost electoral votes?  Could you imagine if he was kept off Maine's ballot, didn't have a chance at that 1 EV, and lost 268 to 270?  That would would be insane.

If somehow Nikki pulls off the upset and takes the nomination away from Trump, how badly does that hurt the GOP nationally?  That has to cause a significant portion of their national support to skip voting and kill their chances in a lot of narrow races downballot for the House and Senate. Unless he runs third party, which would effectively tank Haley's chances of winning. 

I'm still surprised at Biden's low approval rating, hovering around 38% right now. I thought he would be in the mid 40s with the current economy. It's only dropped about 1% since the Israel/Gaza war, which is less than I expected. Is it the border crisis that's dragging him down? Would be great to get a deal passed in Congress to address that now, so we can hopefully see some improvement in a few months. Doubtful that will happen in the current landscape though. 

Inflation/cost of living, border, 112 years old, GOP propaganda machine.

All of the above; much of it may not necessarily be rational but we're talking about a polity of humans here. Don't expect rational.

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11 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

How likely is it that Trump is left off a few ballots in a states, like Maine, which could cost electoral votes?  Could you imagine if he was kept off Maine's ballot, didn't have a chance at that 1 EV, and lost 268 to 270?  That would would be insane.

If somehow Nikki pulls off the upset and takes the nomination away from Trump, how badly does that hurt the GOP nationally?  That has to cause a significant portion of their national support to skip voting and kill their chances in a lot of narrow races downballot for the House and Senate. Unless he runs third party, which would effectively tank Haley's chances of winning. 

I'm still surprised at Biden's low approval rating, hovering around 38% right now. I thought he would be in the mid 40s with the current economy. It's only dropped about 1% since the Israel/Gaza war, which is less than I expected. Is it the border crisis that's dragging him down? Would be great to get a deal passed in Congress to address that now, so we can hopefully see some improvement in a few months. Doubtful that will happen in the current landscape though. 

My hypothesis is simple: Biden has a low approval rating because non-MAGA voters actually expect something from leaders and hold them accountable.  Thus, they can still prefer Biden over all other candidates, but at the same time, not approve of the job he's doing (I think it's mostly driven by disappointment on Israel, lingering economic anxiety, etc.  The Border is an issue for those voters, but not as big a driver as other issues).  

That is, the Venn diagram of people who do not approve of Biden is a circle that overlaps 1) people who will absolutely vote for Biden, 2) people who will likely vote for Biden, 3) people who will likely vote for Trump (not many of these), and 4) people who are 100% in on Trump (most Trump voters are in this category).  Whereas the Venn diagram of people who do not approve of Trump is almost all "people who will never vote for Trump."  If you disapprove of Trump, you won't vote for him.  If you will vote for him, you necessarily 100% approve of him, because that's how fucking cults work.

I am a pessimist at heart.  But I do think the hand-wringing about "Biden's relatively low approval rating" is a lot of noise signifying very little.  As just anecdotal examples, my wife and daughter both would probably fall on the "disapprove" side of Biden, mostly because they think he hasn't done enough on issues important to them (women's bodily autonomy) and has botched Israel.  BUT...each of them would also crawl 100 miles over broken glass to vote for him this election.

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