Elon Musk: Officially a fraud and piece of shit. Official or unofficial war criminal?

[F250 28380]

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Hell, he just made a baby with a woman who looks like a Burning Man reject 

Dude's personal life is a goat rodeo. He has an attraction to the Cray. Granted he is pretty fucking cray cray himself. I wouldn't be surprised if this whole Twitter thing is just a manic episode he is having at the moment. I believe he has admitted to having periods of extreme mania and depression in the past.

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 9944]

1 hour ago, MrBig said:

I still think Elon’s generating this buyout hype to distract from his potential witness status in the Johnny Depp trial. The trial is being live streamed so there’s a lot of interest from all sides.
Elon’s doing this buyout thing so when you type in “Elon” on Twitter it defaults to the buyout news instead of photos of him in the elevator with Amber Heard. He doesn’t want to be tied up in this circus, but here we are. 

I think he’s a visionary, but the Amber Heard saga makes me question his decision making. Never stick your dick into a woman who has the arrogance to eat cookies during a deposition. 

I still think it's more likely he's just messing with the SEC.

[52-80 18963]

4 minutes ago, F250 said:

Dude's personal life is a goat rodeo. He has an attraction to the Cray. Granted he is pretty fucking cray cray himself. I wouldn't be surprised if this whole Twitter thing is just a manic episode he is having at the moment. I believe he has admitted to having periods of extreme mania and depression in the past.

 

If youre gonna be manic you gotta be rich 🎵

[MrBig 5101]

8 minutes ago, F250 said:

Dude's personal life is a goat rodeo. He has an attraction to the Cray. Granted he is pretty fucking cray cray himself. I wouldn't be surprised if this whole Twitter thing is just a manic episode he is having at the moment. I believe he has admitted to having periods of extreme mania and depression in the past.

 

This explains the SNL appearance.

[Francisco 2.0 31568]

This makes more sense than anything. It's over a week old, but explains so much once you think of it in these terms:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-04/elon-musk-bought-some-twitter

 

Quote

Look this all makes complete sense, obvious, intuitive, simple sense. If you are the richest person in the world, and annoying, and you constantly play a computer game, and you get a lot of enjoyment and a sense of identity from that game and are maybe a little addicted, then at some point you might have some suggestions for improvements in the game. So you might leave comments and email the company that makes the game saying “hey you should try my ideas.” And the company might ignore you (or respond politely but not move fast enough for your liking). It might occur to you: “Look, I am the richest person in the world; how much could this game company possibly cost? I should just buy it and change the game however I want.” Even if your complaints are quite minor, why shouldn’t you get to play exactly the game you want? Even if you have no complaints, why not own the game you love, just to make sure it continues to be exactly what you want? The game is Twitter, the richest person in the world is Elon Musk, and:

 

[Francisco 2.0 31568]

 

 

[F250 28380]

37 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

But Elon's birth certificate is from Africa.

 

[Biff Tannen 44921]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

I'm so annoyed by this new season of the simulation.  

[MrBig 5101]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Why would Elon want to be POTUS? He is a billionaire. Like Elizabeth Holmes said, why be the President when you can be a billionaire, then the President will just want to marry you. Unlike Holmes, Elon has an actual product that people can use. 

[52-80 18963]

2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

When 1000 monkeys + typewriter get verified on twitter…

[52-80 18963]

Trading a board of directors consisting of friends and your baby brother for one of the illuminati and lizard people, does not seem like a sensible move

[Hagbard Celine 10498]

https://www.profgalloway.com/elon/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13271]

Elon has pulled himself into a trap that isn’t going to be easy to get out without damage to his reputation.

[Trey3216 15298]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Elon has pulled himself into a trap that isn’t going to be easy to get out without damage to his reputation.

Elon queueing up Joan Jett right now…

[Brisketexan 103148]

https://www.profgalloway.com/elon/

Holy shit. This paragraph is one of the best things I’ve read in years:

“Musk’s call for a Wild West version of Twitter isn’t surprising, as it’s consistent with an emerging Valley ideology I label “takerist.” Takerists view the commonwealth as a hunting ground for personal enrichment and amusement vs. a community invested in mutual prosperity. The great taste of community — roads and charge stations, EV tax credits, air traffic control for Gulfstream 650 ERs, public universities that graduate engineers — with none of the calories — taxes, laws, the basic comity of man.”

There’s so much to unpack there. It doesn’t belong in this thread, but I don’t want to lose it.

[Vegas64 640]

29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Holy shit. This paragraph is one of the best things I’ve read in years:

“Musk’s call for a Wild West version of Twitter isn’t surprising, as it’s consistent with an emerging Valley ideology I label “takerist.” Takerists view the commonwealth as a hunting ground for personal enrichment and amusement vs. a community invested in mutual prosperity. The great taste of community — roads and charge stations, EV tax credits, air traffic control for Gulfstream 650 ERs, public universities that graduate engineers — with none of the calories — taxes, laws, the basic comity of man.”

There’s so much to unpack there. It doesn’t belong in this thread, but I don’t want to lose it.

Also lost on people who like Galloway is that he’s a running punchline and joke. But that’s another thread as well. Heck there is a whole Twitter handle on his most visible L’s. 

[Brisketexan 103148]

Also lost on people who like Galloway is that he’s a running punchline and joke. But that’s another thread as well. Heck there is a whole Twitter handle on his most visible L’s. 

Oh, I don’t think there’s much question that Galloway is another bombastic ego who may even be on the spectrum as Musk is - just noting that paragraph is insightful as hell.
Just like Musk can sometimes be spot-on; it ain’t about author, it’s about the accuracy.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

On 4/15/2022 at 5:17 PM, F250 said:

Dude's personal life is a goat rodeo. He has an attraction to the Cray. Granted he is pretty fucking cray cray himself. I wouldn't be surprised if this whole Twitter thing is just a manic episode he is having at the moment. I believe he has admitted to having periods of extreme mania and depression in the past.

 

Dude is the modern day Howard Hughes.

[Serak The Preparer 3408]

On 4/16/2022 at 7:14 AM, Brisketexan said:

Holy shit. This paragraph is one of the best things I’ve read in years:

“Musk’s call for a Wild West version of Twitter isn’t surprising, as it’s consistent with an emerging Valley ideology I label “takerist.” Takerists view the commonwealth as a hunting ground for personal enrichment and amusement vs. a community invested in mutual prosperity. The great taste of community — roads and charge stations, EV tax credits, air traffic control for Gulfstream 650 ERs, public universities that graduate engineers — with none of the calories — taxes, laws, the basic comity of man.”

There’s so much to unpack there. It doesn’t belong in this thread, but I don’t want to lose it.

That stuff is all socialism. We don't want that kinda shit around here.

[Vegas64 640]

2 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

From NYT:

Could a hostile bid override Twitter’s poison pill? No, but it could put pressure on Twitter’s board to remove the defense, if enough shareholders support Musk’s bid. In 2012, for example, CVR Energy removed a poison pill it had put in place to thwart the activist investor Carl Icahn after his tender offer earned widespread support.

What is Twitter worth? Several analysts said that they think Musk’s bid is too low, and the board is only likely to accept an offer of $60 per share or more. But that’s partially based on Twitter’s ability to reach lofty financial targets, which pushed its stock above $70 per share last year when they were announced. But Twitter’s stock has since fallen to around $45, as investors questioned the company’s ability to meet its goals and fend off competition from other social media sites.

[Vegas64 640]

Twitter as a business:

Twitter has, over 19 different funding rounds (including pre-IPO, IPO, and post-IPO), raised $4.4 billion in funding; meanwhile the company has lost a cumulative $861 million in its lifetime as a public company (i.e. excluding pre-IPO losses). During that time the company has held 33 earnings calls; the company reported a profit in only 14 of them.

Given this financial performance it is kind of amazing that the company was valued at $30 billion the day before Musk’s investment was revealed; such is the value of Twitter’s social graph and its cultural impact: despite there being no evidence that Twitter can even be sustainably profitable, much less return billions of dollars to shareholders, hope springs eternal that the company is on the verge of unlocking its potential. At the same time, these three factors — Twitter’s financials, its social graph, and its cultural impact — get at why Musk’s offer to take Twitter private is so intriguing.

Start with the financials: Twitter’s business stinks. Yes, you can make an argument that this is due to mismanagement and poor execution.

Hence Musk.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

45 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

From NYT:

Could a hostile bid override Twitter’s poison pill? No, but it could put pressure on Twitter’s board to remove the defense, if enough shareholders support Musk’s bid. In 2012, for example, CVR Energy removed a poison pill it had put in place to thwart the activist investor Carl Icahn after his tender offer earned widespread support.

What is Twitter worth? Several analysts said that they think Musk’s bid is too low, and the board is only likely to accept an offer of $60 per share or more. But that’s partially based on Twitter’s ability to reach lofty financial targets, which pushed its stock above $70 per share last year when they were announced. But Twitter’s stock has since fallen to around $45, as investors questioned the company’s ability to meet its goals and fend off competition from other social media sites.

Twitter share price pumped a bit with everything else last year and it tanked pretty hard with a lot of other tech. Those were just beta moves. It’s trading now at the same levels as 9 years ago. During that time the Nasdaq has done a 4x. To think that this board and management team will suddenly unlock a ton of value is extremely unlikely. The economics to me make sense, but CR will be why it doesn’t happen. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Immaculate Vibes

[jkates 310]

On 4/16/2022 at 10:02 AM, Brisketexan said:

Oh, I don’t think there’s much question that Galloway is another bombastic ego who may even be on the spectrum as Musk is - just noting that paragraph is insightful as hell.
Just like Musk can sometimes be spot-on; it ain’t about author, it’s about the accuracy.

 

[Brisketexan 103148]

4 minutes ago, jkates said:

 

Cool.  He's still right in the paragraph I cited.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13271]

Can Elon easily afford to drop $40B on twitter? I understand his net worth says yes but that doesn’t mean he has that much sitting around in cash. I assume he doesn’t  

he would have to stake his Tesla or spacex holdings as collateral to get that loan.  Would a Tesla investor like that elons twitter distraction is both impacting Tesla stock price AND taking his attention away. 

[52-80 18963]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Can Elon easily afford to drop $40B on twitter? I understand his net worth says yes but that doesn’t mean he has that much sitting around in cash. I assume he doesn’t  

he would have to stake his Tesla or spacex holdings as collateral to get that loan.  Would a Tesla investor like that elons twitter distraction is both impacting Tesla stock price AND taking his attention away. 

Tesla annual proxy (14a) says Elon has about $90B or 1/3rd his equity pledged as collateral for existing loans.  I'm assuming much of that is used to control SpaceX.  Don't see where in Tesla charter or elsewhere with defined limit on his holding.

That he's successfully 'running' Tesla and SpaceX is proof, and he won't need to dip into the operational side of Twitter

[wildcat09 28387]

2 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Twitter as a business:

Twitter has, over 19 different funding rounds (including pre-IPO, IPO, and post-IPO), raised $4.4 billion in funding; meanwhile the company has lost a cumulative $861 million in its lifetime as a public company (i.e. excluding pre-IPO losses). During that time the company has held 33 earnings calls; the company reported a profit in only 14 of them.

Given this financial performance it is kind of amazing that the company was valued at $30 billion the day before Musk’s investment was revealed; such is the value of Twitter’s social graph and its cultural impact: despite there being no evidence that Twitter can even be sustainably profitable, much less return billions of dollars to shareholders, hope springs eternal that the company is on the verge of unlocking its potential. At the same time, these three factors — Twitter’s financials, its social graph, and its cultural impact — get at why Musk’s offer to take Twitter private is so intriguing.

Start with the financials: Twitter’s business stinks. Yes, you can make an argument that this is due to mismanagement and poor execution.

Hence Musk.

This can be said about a lot of companies. Hell, it could be said about Tesla until last summer when it finally became profitable without selling emissions credits. And that's assuming there's not any shenanigans going on with their books, which I don't think is a safe assumption.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13271]

Elon fan bois are quick to attack the Twitter board as being unfair or they only want to protect their cushy jobs as board members. Actually the board's main job is to protect the investors and particularly the smaller investors. It doesn't mean board members always do that but it's their goal. And their fiduciary duty should also can be to extract even more money from Elon especially give that his offer was a 420 meme joke.

Elon can say that he has the ability to create more value out of twitter but that means nothing to the board or current investors. Let's say Elon can double the value of Twitter after he owns 100% of it, then he's the only person that benefits financially from that after he buys it.

 

[52-80 18963]

This rev trend could've told ya they don't need emissions credits

[gsoda3 3187]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Elon can say that he has the ability to create more value out of twitter but that means nothing to the board or current investors. Let's say Elon can double the value of Twitter after he owns 100% of it, then he's the only person that benefits financially from that after he buys it.

 

you're right, for existing shareholders the decision is can current management build value > elon's offer.  and for 10 years the answer has been NO management can't.  

 

i don't think elon has thought this through at all though.  he's said he plans on taking as many existing shareholders with him as want in.  i don't see him following through on that.  

[texasdago 7376]

Couldn't a Elon takeover of Twitter piss off enough people that it ends up with a hollow shaggybevo result?  I mean, I guess you won but...

[Slacks 6666]

On 4/13/2022 at 6:12 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Not everyone ignores rules and laws. Only the mega rich. 

totally disagree...  it appears about 80%* of all mankind ignore rules and laws...  the mega rich get away with it in front of everyone, while the 'regulars' (ie, poors like me) catch hands when they get caught.

 

 

*guesstimate, but probably correct, because people like rules for thee.

[wildcat09 28387]

9 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Couldn't a Elon takeover of Twitter piss off enough people that it ends up with a hollow shaggybevo result?  I mean, I guess you won but...

If he actually removed moderation that would almost certainly happen. There's a reason none of the alternatives to twitter that people have promised would be more open to free speech/etc. ever grow beyond a tiny number of users and it's because they get overrun almost immediately with nazis stuff and child porn. The Shaggybevo scatfest was really more tame than what we'd likely see happen to twitter if he actually removed moderation. 

More likely, he wouldn't remove moderation but he'd restore the accounts for some folks that have been banned and he'd heavily censor any criticism against him or his companies.

[gsoda3 3187]

Apollo now mulling over whether they should back Elon in his takeover bid.

[Slacks 6666]

12 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Couldn't a Elon takeover of Twitter piss off enough people that it ends up with a hollow shaggybevo result?  I mean, I guess you won but...

I've been somewhat hoping this would be the case.  Bump up my investments with his 20% buyout and then let that money get put into things that are growing...

$TWTR is trading in the same range today as it was on Day 1.  It had the big jump last January, which pretty much makes it a meme stock.

From an investment standpoint, TWTR is crap.  Let Musk have it and his fanclub can stay on board.  My 28 followers won't care... we'll just move to the next MySpaceRedditFaceGramTok.

[Neonmoon 38126]

20 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Couldn't a Elon takeover of Twitter piss off enough people that it ends up with a hollow shaggybevo result?  I mean, I guess you won but...

It all ends with scat porn

[52-80 18963]

20 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

There's a reason none of the alternatives to twitter that people have promised would be more open to free speech/etc. ever grow beyond a tiny number of users and it's because they get overrun almost immediately with nazis stuff

Very baffling about this low popularity, considering how pervasive nazism is supposed to be.  Or so I hear. 

[wildcat09 28387]

1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

Very baffling about this low popularity, considering how pervasive nazism is supposed to be.  Or so I hear. 

It takes awhile to get people to actively support things like gas chambers. You're on your way there, but you're not there yet.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Yes, you can make an argument that this is due to mismanagement and poor execution.

You'd be hard pressed to argue anything else.

[52-80 18963]

10 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It takes awhile to get people to actively support things like gas chambers. You're on your way there, but you're not there yet.

Im sorry the level of montrosity in the world does not yet meet your expectations

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

On 4/18/2022 at 8:34 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Dude is the modern day Howard Hughes.

Yeah it wouldn't shock me at all to hear that he has jars of piss stored at home

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

He's dumping his shares as I type this.

[Wally Fairway 5465]

I expect there to be a big announcement tomorrow from Elon, I mean it is 420. That's like Christmas and New Year's Eve all in one 

[52-80 18963]

50 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I think that is highly unlikely - I suspect this all goes away and he dumps his Twitter stock - but I would also be thoroughly amused if he dumps a bunch of Tesla stock while it’s at a 200 P/E ratio (and gets celebrated for it).

Since youre quoting trailing 12m p/e, that number is going to drop to <150 literally tomorrow when new quarter earnings print

[TKthunder2 4958]

Tesla is more than just a car manufacturer.  If all they did was build cars then the stock wouldn’t be anywhere close to where it’s at.  The cars are just a practical way to fund further clean energy R&D and encourage general use application.  That’s why the stock is so high.  People are betting big that Tesla can figure out a way to make long lasting solar panels and/or high capacity batteries affordable for middle class America and completely change the conversation around energy in the developed world.  Figuring out a way to eliminate our need for Russian/OPEC fossil fuels is something most people want to believe in, and it doesn’t matter if you concern is around climate change or national security.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

14 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Maybe this is all a grand scheme to give him an excuse to sell a ton of massively overvalued Tesla stock?  “Yeah, it’s not because I think Tesla is valued 10x higher than it should be.  I have total confidence in that valuation.  It’s just that, apart from financial motivation, I need to raise $40 billion to help save free speech by acquiring Twitter.”

I think that is highly unlikely - I suspect this all goes away and he dumps his Twitter stock - but I would also be thoroughly amused if he dumps a bunch of Tesla stock while it’s at a 200 P/E ratio (and gets celebrated for it).

Dude, I think you may have nailed it.

Elon has a known shady side. Say he wants to move out of some of his Tsla stake at these high valuations, but doesn’t want to upset his slavish cult members. Rationalizing it to them, and the market, as a way to facilitate his altruistic Twtr purchase is beautiful. Pocket a few billion while you’re at it. 
 

13 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Well, it’s still valued close to (or more than?) every other automaker in the world combined. I’ve been wrong about plenty of investments and I know there is a bullish case, too, but that seems insane to me.   Even the more standard bullish assumptions about its continued sales growth and profit margins - to say nothing of the really aggressive takes like Cathy Wood pumping how robotaxis are going to bring Tesla to $4,500 per share in short order - just don’t add up to me over the long term.

But I do enjoy him fucking with Twitter in any case.  Twitter’s terms and conditions and enforcement thereof are a joke, and it’s a terrible business.  They deserve it.  And even if lazy journalists and tv networks just decide to stop acting as though “here’s what some guy said on Twitter” constitutes reporting and news, then that would still be a big win.

Tsla is a cult investment. The investors are extremely passionate because he’s made them rich and negative arguments do not take hold with them. It’s similar to other investments I might be familiar with. 😂 

[52-80 18963]

13 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Well, it’s still valued close to (or more than?) every other automaker in the world combined. I’ve been wrong about plenty of investments and I know there is a bullish case, too, but that seems insane to me.   Even the more standard bullish assumptions about its continued sales growth and profit margins - to say nothing of the really aggressive takes like Cathy Wood pumping how robotaxis are going to bring Tesla to $4,500 per share in short order - just don’t add up to me over the long term.

I'm not into the 'Tesla is not just an automaker' narrative, but on pure financials alone, Tesla is not comparable to every other automaker:  all the automaker on aggregate is flatlined or literally downsloping, and Tesla is at 50% CGR. 

If all automakers earnings project to stay flat, then their forward earnings = trailing earnings.  P/E can be compared for companies with similar growth profile, like Ford vs GM.

Because TSLA's earnings are growing, their trailing P/E will be <100 at the end of this year.  Basically, If you buy into an equity to lay claim to future profit (because you cant go back in time...), what you care about is profit growth, i.e. PEG. 

[Trey3216 15298]

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I'm not into the 'Tesla is not just an automaker' narrative, but on pure financials alone, Tesla is not comparable to every other automaker:  all the automaker on aggregate is flatlined or literally downsloping, and Tesla is at 50% CGR. 

If all automakers earnings project to stay flat, then their forward earnings = trailing earnings.  P/E can be compared for companies with similar growth profile, like Ford vs GM.

Because TSLA's earnings are growing, their trailing P/E will be <100 at the end of this year.  Basically, If you buy into an equity to lay claim to future profit (because you cant go back in time...), what you care about is profit growth, i.e. PEG. 

Is that what @NowThis was so adamant about???