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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted

All this seeding preference stuff has too many variables right now. 

Clemson beating SMU would throw a pretty big wrench into it. Boise would be the 3 seed and you'd have an SMU-Bama battle for the last spot. Do they punish SMU for a CCG loss? So the 6 seed could end up playing SMU then Boise, which is a better path than the 5 seed who would have Big 12 and Clemson.

If UT loses, it's a battle with tOSU and ND for seeding. Again, does UT get punished for a CCG? And an Oregon loss would probably put them in the 5 spot.

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Posted

Change the format to 5 conference champions get a top 8 seed and let the committee re-seed all the teams accordingly. No reason a team like Oregon could possibly not get a first round bye and a team like Clemson or Iowa St could

Posted
13 hours ago, heso said:

They overlooked OU? When a loss would have almost certainly knocked them out of playoff contention. Right. 

But that’s the mantra of the sec this year. Judge them by their best games, ignore the losses. 


Agreed. And Alabama wasn't just beat by OU, they were WHIPPED by OU.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Change the format to 5 conference champions get a top 8 seed and let the committee re-seed all the teams accordingly. No reason a team like Oregon could possibly not get a first round bye and a team like Clemson or Iowa St could

There's an easy and obvious reason. The entire point is to reward conference champions. And since the major conferences haven't split off, that's what happens. I hope they never split off but think they will in time.

And I have no issue with ensuring that conference titles continue to mean something, and using the format to reinforce that is fine with me. Texas fans were trained by Mack Brown to think conference championships don't matter a lot. But they do. And they should. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Alabama has developed Notre Dame type plot armor I guess.

Lose to Vanderbilt? Get blown out by OU? No problem. They should get a shot at the national title because they are Bama!

We will have to change the old saw from DKR.  "How do you win a National Championship?  First Bama needs to lose 4 times."

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Posted

spitballing:

I don't think a 3-loss Georgia is hosting a playoff game. Won't matter because if we beat them they'll be pissed and will take someone's lunch money. 

Indiana is underrated and should be hosting. The committee is screwing these guys. 

Nobody is talking about how Penn State hasn't beaten anyone. They're going to drop like a brick if they lose to Oregon - then get to play at Texas or host Georgia. 

Notre Dame is overrated and should be praying the committee doesn't send Alabama to South Bend or that they move up to the 5 line after the conference championship games so they can play ASU or ISU. And those two teams are better than anyone ND has beaten.

Ohio State is still really good and talented but their coach is in over his head. How he and the team handle the post-Michigan hangover will determine how far they go. 

Tennessee is just there. 

 

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Posted

All this handwringing about playoffs and we still haven't seen Graham's SEC power rankings?   Who cares about playoffs?  I'm only hoping ol' GH deems us worthy of being top 5 in the SECSECSEC. 

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Posted
On 12/2/2024 at 10:06 AM, Crockett said:

Well for starters, Alabama has 3 losses. They also got smoked by Oklahoma, a 6-6 team, and only scored 3 points. BYU beat the likely ACC champ on the road and its two losses are by a combined 9 points. 

gump should absolutely not be in

the sagarin case for their inclusion does not factor current trajectory or eye test

south carolina is the most-deserving 3-loss sec team at the moment

a 3-loss conference champion should trump gump if 10/11/12 are being debated

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Posted
On 12/2/2024 at 10:38 AM, statsman said:

OK, so you claim Alabama is less deserving than BYU, because it has one more loss, and one of the two 6-6 teams that beat it, did so solidly. 
 
OK, Army has one less loss than BYU. Army lost to a CFP team, on the road, while BYU’s worst loss was at home to a 5-7 Kansas team. 
 
Do you agree Army has a better argument than BYU for an at large?

this is also true

Posted
On 12/2/2024 at 11:13 AM, The Dog said:

The problem with South Carolina is that they lost to both Bama and Ole Miss. 

The problem with both Bama and Ole Miss is each has a terrible loss (Bama to OU and Ole Miss to Kentucky). 

That's why Finebaum thinks all three get left out - there's no point in debating the three when there are other 2-loss teams available to consider.

and this is also true

this thing is fucked up

Posted
1 hour ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Change the format to 5 conference champions get a top 8 seed and let the committee re-seed all the teams accordingly. No reason a team like Oregon could possibly not get a first round bye and a team like Clemson or Iowa St could

What if they're better than Oregon?

Posted
21 hours ago, chainsaw said:

If Michigan wanted to make the playoff they shouldn't have lost 5 games.

If Clemson wants to make the playoff they need to beat SMU.

If Iowa State wants to make the playoff they need to beat Arizona State.

If Alabama wanted to make the playoff they shouldn't have lost to ousux.

I'll be honest, I don't know why Pedo State got into the CCG over Indiana, but whatever the reason is, Indiana doesn't control its own destiny. I would advocate for Indiana to sneak in over the B1G CCG loser, even if that loser is Oregon.

I would prioritize qualification in the following order of importance:

  1. exactly 3 teams qualify from SEC (UGA, Tex, Tenn)
  2. at most 3 teams qualify from B1G (Oregon, Pedo, IU)
  3. exactly 1 team qualifies from Big12 (CCG winner)
  4. exactly 1 team qualifies from ACC (CCG winner)
  5. at most 1 Independent team qualifies if they have 10+ wins (ND)
  6. outstanding G5s quaify if they have 10+ wins and only quality losses (Boise)

Based on this year's results, ten teams would qualify for the playoffs, leaving two discretionary slots.

My sense is that the committee is going to have the following priorities:

  1. Ohio State (10-2)
  2. SMU if it loses the ACC CCG (11-2)
  3. Miami (10-2)
  4. Arizona State if it loses the Big12 CCG (10-3)
  5. Iowa State if it loses the Big 12 CCG (10-3)
  6. Ole Miss (9-3)
  7. SCar (9-3)

I would prefer that SMU and Arizona State got in, because I don't want to see B1G over-represented and I don't think Miami is any good.

Assuming those twelve teams qualify, I think they should be seeded:

  1. Oregon (13-0) - B1G Champ
  2. Texas (12-1) - SEC Champ
  3. Boise (12-1) - MWC Champ
  4. Clemson/Arizona State (11-2) - ACC/Big12 Champ
  5. Pedo (11-2)
  6. Georgia (10-3)
  7. Notre Dame (11-1)
  8. Clemson/Arizona State (11-2) - ACC/Big12 Champ
  9. Indiana (11-1)
  10. SMU (11-2)
  11. Tennessee (10-2)
  12. Ohio State (10-2)

@chainsaw this the best take i've read since saturday's results and should be the baseline for comparison against what the committee does tonight

Posted
21 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'll be honest, I don't know why Pedo State got into the CCG over Indiana

Same reason a multi-team tie in the SEC would have fucked over Texas - opponent winning %

2. Penn St (8 - 1)

Above Indiana based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4074).

3. Indiana (8 - 1)

Below Penn St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3457).

Posted
2 hours ago, Tex-19 said:

All this seeding preference stuff has too many variables right now. 

Clemson beating SMU would throw a pretty big wrench into it. Boise would be the 3 seed and you'd have an SMU-Bama battle for the last spot. Do they punish SMU for a CCG loss? So the 6 seed could end up playing SMU then Boise, which is a better path than the 5 seed who would have Big 12 and Clemson.

If UT loses, it's a battle with tOSU and ND for seeding. Again, does UT get punished for a CCG? And an Oregon loss would probably put them in the 5 spot.

This is where I'm at.  Like of Oregon loses, they're going in the 5th...but if Penn St or Texas lose, they probably going to 6/7 instead of 5 based on the tea leaves...and they still might decide Ohio St is higher than one or both of them.

Posted
On 12/2/2024 at 11:02 AM, 6th Street said:

This 12 team playoff is fucking stupid. Should be 6 max with 2 byes. The rest is just filler for TV ratings. 

Is it filler? I doubt it. Sometimes a team with a few losses can get hot at the right time. 

 

Posted

The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

Posted
3 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Alabama has developed Notre Dame type plot armor I guess.

This is nothing new. Well, maybe not ND levels, but Alabama has always been given the benefit of the doubt, just like we often do, or USC, or Michigan.

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

I still think it was just a special year, there have been so many upsets that it could be argued that even the top 13 team stood a shot, this  compounded by Alabama getting their ass wiped 3 times and people still using the talent composite argument to start slapfights.

 

That said if the upsets keep happening (super seniors,  transfer portal creating balance) it will lead to continued drama

Edited by linux
Posted
20 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Is it filler? I doubt it. Sometimes a team with a few losses can get hot at the right time. 

 

I think the Big 12 champ is going to fuck some shit up for any team that isn't Texas. That includes Oregon. I'll even say this: if Arizona State faces Oregon, give me the Sun Devils by at least 10.

Posted
16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

Vastly superior. I am more concerned about teams who don't deserve it getting in than teams that should be there being left out.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think the Big 12 champ is going to fuck some shit up for any team that isn't Texas. That includes Oregon. I'll even say this: if Arizona State faces Oregon, give me the Sun Devils by at least 10.

Uhh I mean Oregon is pretty well versed against Arizona State

image.thumb.png.5f2eac372c4df1ac46ba9fd059e66e64.png

Them being in the Big 12 this year didn't grant them mythical powers they previously didn't possess.

 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

Heck, the basketball tournament has 68 teams and everyone clutches their pearls over the "first four out" who have no shot at winning the tournament.

Posted

I mean its fun to talk about, but lets not act like being 13 in the rankings is equivalent to being 3 in the old BCS or 5 in most recent version. Nobody will be taking about grave injustices as soon as the games start being played. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Deserve got nothing to do with it. If you didn't win your conference, or you aren't undefeated, CFP is a privilege not a right.

Well yes, but before it was possible to win your conference and be undefeated and not be in the CFP. Not to name any names or anything.

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well yes, but before it was possible to win your conference and be undefeated and not be in the CFP. Not to name any names or anything.

That's why I love the 12-team CFP. It ends those debates, and it ends the era of national titles having asterisks.

Posted (edited)

right now, an old-fashioned conference call is taking place.....

it might be on zoom or teams.....

or just voices only, who knows

but the final points of contention are being hashed out as i type

this is the most complex advance manipulation of scenarios ever attempted

even last year, the committee only needed to pre-cook for 3 or 4 outcomes that mattered

now they have 7-8 if-then-else scenarios to model just for who gets in

and for each of those scenarios how do they backwards-engineer from next week's potential rankings without looking like fools this week

i suspect we are going to see some weirdness tonight needed to enable multiple if-then-else scenarios to remain viable

i could see us dropping to 4th and georgia moving up to 5th because reasons

i could also see us jump oregon

Edited by Hagbard Celine
Posted
2 hours ago, Fico said:

I mean its fun to talk about, but lets not act like being 13 in the rankings is equivalent to being 3 in the old BCS or 5 in most recent version. Nobody will be taking about grave injustices as soon as the games start being played. 

It's not exactly apples to apples. Would anybody be really surprised to see a #13 Bama beat any of the other teams in the field? They would be favored against most of them on a neutral field.

Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

It's not exactly apples to apples. Would anybody be really surprised to see a #13 Bama beat any of the other teams in the field? They would be favored against most of them on a neutral field.

Yes there are a few teams that I would be surprised if Bama beat. Namely us and Oregon. I kind of like ND too but would like to see them prove it. But to your point, certainly not everyone in front of them. 

I don't think that's going to be the case every season, though. Last year 9-3 LSU was the last team out and beat one ranked team all season. Bama and FSU (CFP 4 and 5) both whipped them. 

The OU win over Texas was the only major upset (if you want to call it that - it was about a TD game and OU finished 10th in the final CFP) of any team in the top SEVEN. There were just four losses among those teams and three of them also came from teams in the top 7: Texas over Bama, Michigan over tOSU and Alabama over UGA. 

Edited by ztejas
Posted
21 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

It's not exactly apples to apples. Would anybody be really surprised to see a #13 Bama beat any of the other teams in the field? They would be favored against most of them on a neutral field.

If they were fortunate to make it in, it also wouldn’t surprise me to see them lose to a “lesser” team early, like they did multiple times this season.

At some point you are what you are team/record wise, and they got beat by several not “great” teams this year. 

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Posted (edited)

Alabama jumps up to #11, ahead of Miami at #12. Sickening.

Of course Ole Miss stays at #13, and ESPN explains it away as them having a "bad Florida loss". But zero mention of Alabama’s losses, instead they handwave it away with "oh, everyone in this cluster has some bad losses, but look at Alabama’s wins!!1!"

Edited by satyanash
Posted
Just now, satyanash said:

Alabama jumps up to #11, ahead of Miami at #12. Sickening.

Of course Ole Miss stays at #13, and ESPN explains it away as them having a "bad Florida loss". But zero mention of Alabama’s losses, instead they handwoven it away with "oh, everyone in this cluster has some bad losses, but look at Alabama’s wins!!1!"

I have no problem with Miami getting left out.   

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Posted

Good lesson to teach our kids. If you have national branding and generate TV revenue it doesn't matter if you have late-season faceplants against middling teams. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

An immediate 3rd Texas Georgia game is regarded. I hope the committee just reseeds this shit Sunday. They can make up any excuse to justify it.

The losers of UO/Penn and UT/UG will get shuffled around some.

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Posted
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I hope the committee just reseeds this shit Sunday. They can make up any excuse to justify it.

I’d have zero problems with it. I’d assume it’s unprecedented, but it could make for some very interesting game planning
Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Cocks should be PISSED

Yeah that terrible bama loss to blOU should have eliminated the tide's chances to be in the playoffs.

Just ridiculous... 😬

Posted

A few takeaways from this:

If SMU beats Clemson, Bama is almost definitely the 11 seed. Not a fun matchup for the 6 seed. If Clemson wins, it's SMU vs Bama for that final spot.

tOSU isn't getting the 5 seed. If Texas loses and Oregon wins, it'll be between us and ND. No idea what the committee would do there. If they pick ND, then there's still a chance tOSU gets the 6 and UT 7, although I think that would be unlikely. Interestingly, 7 seed vs Indiana would be easier than 6 vs Bama although 2nd round tougher at 7 seed.

Of course, it is HIGHLY likely that there will be upsets this weekend which shakes up all these assumptions. Almost every CCG is a near pick em.

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Posted

So, the Buckeyes get a fucking home game. Awesome. 
also- if the sec ends up with 3 teams (they won’t I bet it’s 4) because SMU loses, the reason it will be is because they absolutely horsefucked USCe in the game with LSU. Maybe they shouldn’t orchestrate ref fuckery and let the games play themselves out. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

I have no problem with Miami getting left out.   

Then Ole Miss should be ahead of Alabama. 

Alabama’s bragworthy wins are Georgia and SCar. Ole Miss stomped both by bigger margins. And all three of their losses are by just one possession. They never suffered a beatdown like Alabama did against blOU.

The committee is claiming good wins are more important than bad losses to put Alabama ahead of Miami. Then they're claiming bad losses are more important than good wins to keep Alabama ahead of Ole Miss.

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