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Posted

On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did.

Posted
6 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said:

On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did.

These Hill Country rain events are hard to predict, especially when they involve tropical  systems that come in from the south through Mexico.   Some of th early models had the heaviest rains happening further south and west in the Concan/Uvalde/Leakey area.   In fact I went to bed Thursday evening expecting just that to not only wake up early Friday to all the horrible news breaking just to the north of the area.    

This system was supposed to kick out the region yesterday and here it is today flooding areas further east this morning.   Same thing with Harvey back in 2017 that was supposed to do the classic hit the coast and head toward the San Antonio area and then it curved Northeast and stalled more like an old frontal boundary and did it’s thing to the Houston area.   I think the best Mets can put a forecast out there, but weather systems and patterns have a mind of their own.   

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Posted
17 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said:

On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did.

https://www.npr.org/2025/02/27/nx-s1-5298738/trump-administration-layoffs-hit-noaa-the-agency-that-forecasts-weather-and-hurricanes

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/how-noaa-funding-cuts-could-make-it-harder-to-predict-and-prepare-for-severe-weather

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Posted
8 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said:

On the subject of the MCS itself, how did pretty much all the forecasts miss it? Does phdhorn still post here? Random meteorologists are showing up on my Facebook feed claiming they knew it was coming, but I don’t think anybody did.

We are in Mexico so I was only tangentially following, I don’t recall 15 inches of rain forecasted but I do recall seeing rainfall could be impressive and anything above 3-4 inches can cause dangerous flooding.  If that potential is in the area and you live close to a hill country river or a creek then you need to be on alert. I think it was a mix of the forecast wasn’t 100% (never is), it won’t happen to us, it’s July and weather risk is limited to heat injury only, the flooding risk materialized over night, and just plain not paying attention were the cause. I read earlier that while not unique in flash flooding, the Texas hill country has some of the highest fatality rates of flash flooding in the country. 

Posted (edited)

Man this thing keeps dumping water now the last 24 hours over the north side of lake Travis. Wow. 

flood risk ain’t over yet folks.

image.thumb.png.73c832433d51d02e87dbd4d0b2b4605c.png

Edited by troph
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Posted
38 minutes ago, leaf said:

 

 

 

The South Fork of the San Gabriel at the Ronald Reagan bridge at 7:00am

 

 

Where is the water level in relation to the new housing subdivision just to the north of there? They built really close to the river.

Also, given the big jump in level at Travis this morning, I’m assuming LCRA just keeps the dam totally closed to refill the lake? I haven't seen any specific note about that. 

Posted
41 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

I had to go pick my oldest up from his mom's place in Georgetown at 3am so I could take him to the airport and yeah, I caught one of those bands that peeled off around that time. Shit was hairy.

After this happening yesterday, it was rough dropping him off this morning. He's going for a week to a scout camp just outside Asheville, NC and that tropical storm has me nervous as hell.

Did ask about the camps emergency plan?  It wasn't that long ago Asheville was completely flooded.

Posted
1 minute ago, sasquatch69 said:

Where is the water level in relation to the new housing subdivision just to the north of there? They built really close to the river.

Also, given the big jump in level at Travis this morning, I’m assuming LCRA just keeps the dam totally closed to refill the lake? I haven't seen any specific note about that. 

They’ve said they have no intention of opening Mansfield for flood control at this time. The plan is for LT to catch it all south of Buchanan. Last night’s rain probably won’t change that. 2018 floods rose 25 feet in a day to fill the lake but now we are (were) 40 feet below full so plenty of flood catching capacity.

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, troph said:

Man this thing keeps dumping water now the last 24 hours over the north side of lake Travis. Wow. 

flood risk ain’t over yet folks.

image.thumb.png.73c832433d51d02e87dbd4d0b2b4605c.png

Yeah I'm near that 3.8 on the far right, along Cypress Creek.  We've had a lot of rain but just to the west of us over in Jonestown/Big Sandy they've had a lot more.  Big Sandy Creek running at 48K cfs and it's starting to rain again, predictions are for some of the heaviest rain we've seen yet between now and noon.

I'm reading that 1431 is closed at Lago Vista.

8 minutes ago, troph said:

Holy shit lake Travis is up 10 feet over night. 

I think it's possible it'll rise another 10' today, it's about to start raining heavy again, on the same areas north of the lake.

Edited by utee94
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Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I think it was 2014 Memorial Weekend floods that filled the whole thing up. Would be nice if we could get it at least close to full, but still a long way to go. 
 

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

After last night I can see over 20 feet rise, early projections were 10 feet over a few days.  I thought that was low, every basin had a river at or above flood stage. 2018 it was llano only (blanco too outside LCRA watersheds). This time it’s San Saba, llano, perd, now Hamilton creek and big sandy creek are flowing 50,000 CFS up from ZERO. And of course guad outside LCRA watersheds.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Thank you for sharing and glad you and son are safe. And yes it’s all devastating from the sources I am getting as well. When the Judge said “all accounted for” hours earlier today he meant the girls the camp had moved to higher ground. The judge was not counting the ones who had been caught in the flood. Separate things unfortunately. It’s as bad as we all think and I won’t be posting the other names I already have regardless of parental announcements. I posted the one girl’s because I had permission to do so. It’s all bad. And I do think the FLIR does help at night. It’s heart wrenching. 

So without any knowledge of Kerr county and its elected officials, the judge sounds like a real fucking piece of shit. 

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

These Hill Country rain events are hard to predict, especially when they involve tropical  systems that come in from the south through Mexico.   Some of th early models had the heaviest rains happening further south and west in the Concan/Uvalde/Leakey area.   In fact I went to bed Thursday evening expecting just that to not only wake up early Friday to all the horrible news breaking just to the north of the area.    

This system was supposed to kick out the region yesterday and here it is today flooding areas further east this morning.   Same thing with Harvey back in 2017 that was supposed to do the classic hit the coast and head toward the San Antonio area and then it curved Northeast and stalled more like an old frontal boundary and did it’s thing to the Houston area.   I think the best Mets can put a forecast out there, but weather systems and patterns have a mind of their own.   

That’s not entirely true. Several posters here have referenced the SA who nailed Friday also saying Saturday would come back with a vengeance. Some folks are getting it right. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yeah I'm near that 3.8 on the far right, along Cypress Creek.  We've had a lot of rain but just to the west of us over in Jonestown/Big Sandy they've had a lot more.  Big Sandy Creek running at 48K cfs and it's starting to rain again, predictions are for some of the heaviest rain we've seen yet between now and noon.

I'm reading that 1431 is closed at Lago Vista.

I think it's possible it'll rise another 10' today, it's about to start raining heavy again, on the same areas north of the lake.

Unreal.

Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s not entirely true. Several posters here have referenced the SA who nailed Friday also saying Saturday would come back with a vengeance. Some folks are getting it right. 

I will admit I’ve been real busy this week and my usual weather nerd browsing of stuff which I usually do this time of the year due to the tropical season was a very minimum.   Thank you for the clarification if I missed some stuff. 

Posted
Just now, MissingInAction said:

Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened?

Barry was yucutan but honestly it acted like the pacific storms how it ended up west of Austin before it unleashed the rains. It was also crazy how the Mexican mountains ripped it to shreds but then it regained some circulation once it cleared into south Texas.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So without any knowledge of Kerr county and its elected officials, the judge sounds like a real fucking piece of shit. 

He's probably gonna hand his resignation letter by the end of the week.  Especially after Dan Patrick shit on him

Posted
Just now, Nueces River Rat said:

I will admit I’ve been real busy this week and my usual weather nerd browsing of stuff which I usually do this time of the year due to the tropical season was a very minimum.   Thank you for the clarification if I missed some stuff. 

There was a lot of chatter, a lot of noise. No CR but we are all going to have to be more flexible re forecast interpretations.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, troph said:

After last night I can see over 20 feet rise, early projections were 10 feet over a few days.  I thought that was low, every basin had a river at or above flood stage. 2018 it was llano only (blanco too outside LCRA watersheds). This time it’s San Saba, llano, perd, now Hamilton creek and big sandy creek are flowing 50,000 CFS up from ZERO. And of course guad outside LCRA watersheds.

Wow. My weather app future radar just parks this thing directly over the lakes for the next several hours. 
 

image.thumb.png.fa47fbcbeb88bbc188de5847d44f0678.png

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Posted
4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Yep. Who'd think a pacific borne system could do this here. Whens the lat time that happened?

Yes.   It’s not uncommon at all depending where it hits in Mexico.   Many of them do go more west toward the Big Bend area and contribute to the August monsoon season.  

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Posted

the devestating loss of the girls is most in my mind,

 

but Ive seen several posts over the last day that seem to be going into a dangerous monday morning quartreback role. 

its been 17 years since I moved back to austin and the lake level has always been something the meteorolgists talked about a lot.  Like a lot a lot. 

and in the last 17 years when the lake level got below 670, any forecasted rain event that could have Lake level implications was always mentioned/ talked about by those weather folks. 

and in every single case I can remember, a possible lake level rise impactor system was always talke about for multiple days leading up to the event- even those times when the possible prediciotion didnt pan out or was a small lake riser....

I do not recall a single weather app, forecaster, or even the JV crew now working KXAN even THNKING about mentionging this storm system being a mega Lake rise impactor yet, in 1 day LT has gone up 8 feet, with this rain bomb hitting in the Lago Vista/Leander area thats gonna go up even more...

 

my point.... the predictors mentioned yes there was a chance for flooding... but none of them even thought about  talking about a 15+ foot lake rise in 2 days and that looks like what is going to happen.    this fucking storm is a complete outlier. 

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Posted

Two of my brothers kids & grandkids (with great grandkids) live out south of Liberty Hill in the country and one on the lake at Marble Falls….the latter in the recently designated flood plain. Hoping they are ok.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

the devestating loss of the girls is most in my mind,

 

but Ive seen several posts over the last day that seem to be going into a dangerous monday morning quartreback role. 

its been 17 years since I moved back to austin and the lake level has always been something the meteorolgists talked about a lot.  Like a lot a lot. 

and in the last 17 years when the lake level got below 670, any forecasted rain event that could have Lake level implications was always mentioned/ talked about by those weather folks. 

and in every single case I can remember, a possible lake level rise impactor system was always talke about for multiple days leading up to the event- even those times when the possible prediciotion didnt pan out or was a small lake riser....

I do not recall a single weather app, forecaster, or even the JV crew now working KXAN even THNKING about mentionging this storm system being a mega Lake rise impactor yet, in 1 day LT has gone up 8 feet, with this rain bomb hitting in the Lago Vista/Leander area thats gonna go up even more...

 

my point.... the predictors mentioned yes there was a chance for flooding... but none of them even thought about  talking about a 15+ foot lake rise in 2 days and that looks like what is going to happen.    this fucking storm is a complete outlier. 

That doesn’t sound like an outlier since another storm did similar within the last 10 years. It sounds like the way these things are reported on is the problem. Maybe if reporters led with “potential lake filling event” people would pa more attention. 
 

we can’t keep saying 1000 year storm events when they happen every few years. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, UnivTex34 said:

Man, that cell up on the north side of Lake Travis is just wild. Did basically the same thing as the storm that inundated the Guad/SanSaba. Just sat and spun all night.

 

Hope anyone up in that area is safe.

 

image.thumb.png.20fcd113ffe168c2cf2d404430b67848.png

Should be enough rain to convince LCRA it'll be fine to let some more new housing developments put straws in the lake.

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Posted

Following the Shoal Creek flood in 1991 Austin installed an early flood warning system. Has there been ongoing discussion/investigation of something similar in Hill Country? 

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I was only off by one ocean. I dont work for NOAA.

Thanks to DOGE, a lot of former NOAA staff dont either.

It will be interesting to watch the battle of spin here. In one corner you will have texas top politicians pushing the narrative that the forecasters are to blame and they had no inkling this rain was coming, and then in the other corner you will have people blaming the disruptions at NOAA and NWS due to staff cuts, in the other other corner you will have Trump's administration insisting those cuts had no effect, and in the last other corner people will probably be blaming Biden. 

My gut tells me that some loss of life was probably unavoidable due to the magnuitude of the event, and general incompetence by local authorities compounded matters. Inexcusable to have that many kids camping on a river in the hill country when forecasts for 7 inches of rain at the high end were put out the day before.  

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
13 minutes ago, Chopper said:

He's a meteorologist with NOAA.

Failure to pay attention and failure to communicate. We get so many weather warnings and so there’s an inadvertent “the meteorologist who cried wolf” phenomenon but we need to pay attention to all of them because one of them will be the one.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

the devestating loss of the girls is most in my mind,

 

but Ive seen several posts over the last day that seem to be going into a dangerous monday morning quartreback role. 

its been 17 years since I moved back to austin and the lake level has always been something the meteorolgists talked about a lot.  Like a lot a lot. 

and in the last 17 years when the lake level got below 670, any forecasted rain event that could have Lake level implications was always mentioned/ talked about by those weather folks. 

and in every single case I can remember, a possible lake level rise impactor system was always talke about for multiple days leading up to the event- even those times when the possible prediciotion didnt pan out or was a small lake riser....

I do not recall a single weather app, forecaster, or even the JV crew now working KXAN even THNKING about mentionging this storm system being a mega Lake rise impactor yet, in 1 day LT has gone up 8 feet, with this rain bomb hitting in the Lago Vista/Leander area thats gonna go up even more...

 

my point.... the predictors mentioned yes there was a chance for flooding... but none of them even thought about  talking about a 15+ foot lake rise in 2 days and that looks like what is going to happen.    this fucking storm is a complete outlier. 

That’s true but if you are in a flood prone area and a rain event can flood you take it seriously…. Every time. My kids are so annoyed with how often I make them prep the porches and non-garaged cars when there is  risk of hail. It’s what you do when the watches and warnings occur.
 

Degrees of flooding are for those far away from the impact zone.  Human behavior (all of us) is way to prone to think it won’t happen to me. Sorry but if you’re next to a river that massively floods once a decade and can moderately flood more often than that then you take every watch and warning seriously. There was enough - not bullseye accurate - not to the areas or the amounts - but enough to be vigilant. Problem is we humans think we are above the laws of nature not subordinate to them. It costs us everytime. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

we can’t keep saying 1000 year storm events when they happen every few years. 

1000 day events?

Posted
19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That doesn’t sound like an outlier since another storm did similar within the last 10 years. It sounds like the way these things are reported on is the problem. Maybe if reporters led with “potential lake filling event” people would pa more attention. 
 

we can’t keep saying 1000 year storm events when they happen every few years. 

People don’t appreciate the risk. Too many watches and warnings that don’t materialize. Waiting for the warning that’s right on top of them. Assuming since it hasn’t happen to them yet it won’t this time either. Same issue with wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. better to be wrong and prepared 99 times out of 100  so that 1 time you’re safe. That’s how weather professionals approach it and we FAFO and blame them. Nah man, you prepare every time. 

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Posted

Not sure about y’all but it has not stopped raining since 10 pm in my location. A notch or two above drizzle the whole fucking night. 
 

Everybody is heartbroken. 💔 

the lakes better fill their asses up. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

All you miserable fuckers itching your vaginas to blame someone for this need to fuck the fuck off. 

Read this: https://apple.news/A1LQmfIsOTVe7UjxAAIEdQA

Yeah, it’s probably paywalled. So if you’re too poor to afford Apple News then I can’t help you 

You only need 4+ inches to cause flooding. It’s not like you wait until it’s 10+ inches to act especially when you are close to a creek or river. Shit I grew up watching brushy creek flood on just a few inches of rain. It doesn’t take much at all.  

Posted

Everyone saying "my radar app is saying that this will..." need to understand that radar app doesn't know shit.  Storms do what they want.  While you can say 60% chance of rain or whatever, you can't predict exactly where that rain will fall.

On a side note, aside from the 10 foot rise, forecasts are a potential 10-20 more feet in Travis.

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Posted
1 minute ago, MirrOlure said:

All you miserable fuckers itching your vaginas to blame someone for this need to fuck the fuck off. 

Read this: https://apple.news/A1LQmfIsOTVe7UjxAAIEdQA

Yeah, it’s probably paywalled. So if you’re too poor to afford Apple News then I can’t help you 

Your article is wrong. There were forecasts (by the NWS, I believe) on Thursday indicating rain levels up to 7 inches in areas that included the Guadalupe river basin. Nobody is arguing that a lot of rain came down. That doesn't automatically exclude the possibility that critical errors by local authorities didn't also compound matters. 

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