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Posted
1 minute ago, Hammerin Hank said:

It seems some here are extremely hesitant to assign any blame in this situation.  Let’s try a different word. That word is RESPONSIBILITY. If you’re a camp leader you are responsible for the children in your care. If you are a county official you are responsible for making sure the county is safe for residents and visitors. If you’re a state official you are responsible for making sure the counties are properly prepared for disaster. There were failures at all levels, but nobody is taking any responsibility. And some here are refusing to assign any responsibility. Leaders are supposed to be responsible.

Ah, a simpler time when that was true. 

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Posted
It seems some here are extremely hesitant to assign any blame in this situation.  Let’s try a different word. That word is RESPONSIBILITY. If you’re a camp leader you are responsible for the children in your care. If you are a county official you are responsible for making sure the county is safe for residents and visitors. If you’re a state official you are responsible for making sure the counties are properly prepared for disaster. There were failures at all levels, but nobody is taking any responsibility. And some here are refusing to assign any responsibility. Leaders are supposed to be responsible.

Dude. You didn’t get the memo for this current era. Leaders only get credit, but they aren’t responsible for shit. It’s to a level of absoluteness that’s batshit.
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Posted
Theres a story of a dude that stayed up drinking and watching the storm at an rv park. At this point I dont even remember where its from. Around 1:30 he noticed the water had risen a lot and decided to go in and check the weather. He saw there were a bunch of alerts, came back outside, and the water had risen a shit ton in just minutes. He raised drunken hell banging on everyones rv doors and telling the men he came across to do the same. Everyone got out in time to watch their RVs get swept away. Im sure this story will come out more publicly because it sounds both amazing and completely insane. Unless you were there, Im guessing theres just no way to understand how fast it all happened. It was like a tsunami. 

Yep. The water rise downstream was incredibly fast.
Which is why warnings based on sensors upstream are important. See the Pedernales: the warning sirens are triggered by water levels well upstream, to provide a meaningful warning window of time.
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Hammerin Hank said:

It seems some here are extremely hesitant to assign any blame in this situation.  Let’s try a different word. That word is RESPONSIBILITY. If you’re a camp leader you are responsible for the children in your care. If you are a county official you are responsible for making sure the county is safe for residents and visitors. If you’re a state official you are responsible for making sure the counties are properly prepared for disaster. There were failures at all levels, but nobody is taking any responsibility. And some here are refusing to assign any responsibility. Leaders are supposed to be responsible.

fuckyeah-hotfuzz.gif.20a45636982767a7a4247bb35286806c.gif

Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Yep. The water rise downstream was incredibly fast.
Which is why warnings based on sensors upstream are important. See the Pedernales: the warning sirens are triggered by water levels well upstream, to provide a meaningful warning window of time.

That or place dudes that like to go hard at strategic locations along the river. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Yep. The water rise downstream was incredibly fast.
Which is why warnings based on sensors upstream are important. See the Pedernales: the warning sirens are triggered by water levels well upstream, to provide a meaningful warning window of time.

Where on the Pedernales are you talking about? 

For the Guadalupe River, aren't both the headwaters for North and South Guadalupe river right here in this area.  1-2 miles from Mo-Ranch and about 1-2 miles from Camp Mystic?  How much upstream are you talking about?

Posted
Where on the Pedernales are you talking about? 
For the Guadalupe River, aren't both the headwaters for North and South Guadalupe river right here in this area.  1-2 miles from Mo-Ranch and about 1-2 miles from Camp Mystic?  How much upstream are you talking about?

Not sure of the exact sensor location on the Perd. Sufficiently upstream of the state park.
Not sure how far upstream on the Guad, would expect sensors should be at multiple places, as the rover could rise based on multiple sources/areas. The fact that there was already a plan for sirens and sensors (rejected for…reasons), I’d expect locations were already selected. And yes, warnings give you more time the further downstream you are. You DO know that dozens of people died well downstream from Mystic, right? They are not the only relevant location.
Posted
1 hour ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Reading the WaPo and WSJ articles, I am not so sure staying in the cabins didn’t actually save some lives both at Mystic and La Junta.   Nothing was saving Bubble Inn and Twins, I don’t think, and Mystic will have to pay the price for that given what we know now.  
 

After almost 2 weeks of reflection, this isn’t hard, I don’t think.  Mystic leadership underestimated the storms and reacted too late.  When they did react they probably saved lives.  But who knows what happens if they move everyone uphill an hour earlier.  
 

Kerr county leadership, who has thousands of kids up and down the river on top of the tourists, did next to next to nothing to alert folks as to the danger until it was too late.  They fall squarely in my unforgivable bucket and can additionally get fucked for the subsequent “Who, me?” reaction of said leadership.  

I agree with most everything you wrote except the bolded parts. I think we do know what would have happened if everyone moved uphill an hour earlier. There's video of Mystic girls walking through shin deep water pretty close to Bubble Inn and Twins. Oddly, they are evacuating to another building that was located in the floodway (area even lower than the floodplain), which to me indicates there was a general lack of knowledge, poor planning, or poor communication about where to go in a flooding event.

I get the reservations about assigning blame and can sympathize with the dilemma of sheltering in place vs evacuating; but its OK to evaluate an event and recognize mistakes were made while also applauding the efforts made to save lives. And to be clear I am not being critical of any campers or counselors for their decisions; I do think it's fair to be critical of a plan that clearly failed those girls - especially if the camp-designed, state-approved plan was for the girls to just ride out the flood in cabins that sit in the floodway and/or 100 year floodplain.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Not sure of the exact sensor location on the Perd. Sufficiently upstream of the state park.
Not sure how far upstream on the Guad, would expect sensors should be at multiple places, as the rover could rise based on multiple sources/areas. The fact that there was already a plan for sirens and sensors (rejected for…reasons), I’d expect locations were already selected. And yes, warnings give you more time the further downstream you are. You DO know that dozens of people died well downstream from Mystic, right? They are not the only relevant location.

I get it. Just putting the conceptional siren plan into real perspective here. The headwaters for the Guadalupe River literally start right here. Less than 1-2 miles from Camp Mystic on the south fork and less than 1-2 miles from Mo-Ranch on the north fork. 

 Your example of Pedernales Falls State Park is more than 80 miles of upstream Pedernales River for measurements or sensors. 

Ingram Dam to Mystic is about 11 miles. Maybe that is enough time for sensors to detect, send a siren blast, and have everyone along that stretch get up and get out.

Posted
I get it. Just putting the conceptional siren plan into real perspective here. The headwaters for the Guadalupe River literally start right here. Less than 1-2 miles from Camp Mystic on the south fork and less than 1-2 miles from Mo-Ranch on the north fork. 
 Your example of Pedernales Falls State Park is more than 80 miles of upstream Pedernales River for measurements or sensors. 
Ingram Dam to Mystic is about 11 miles. Maybe that is enough time for sensors to detect, send a siren blast, and have everyone along that stretch get up and get out.

Correct.
The farther downstream from the initiating floodwave, the more time people have to get out of the way. It’s hard to save the people at the start point, it gets easier with each increment of distance downstream.
BTW, I have personally turned around and avoided a developing flood, at night, in this exact location. I was still close to Ingram when I turned around. A Hunt school board member died on 39 that night. I was far enough downstream to realize what was developing and GTFO. People died two weeks ago right near where I turned around.
Posted
51 minutes ago, BlackCat said:

Theres a story of a dude that stayed up drinking and watching the storm at an rv park. At this point I dont even remember where its from. Around 1:30 he noticed the water had risen a lot and decided to go in and check the weather. He saw there were a bunch of alerts, came back outside, and the water had risen a shit ton in just minutes. He raised drunken hell banging on everyones rv doors and telling the men he came across to do the same. Everyone got out in time to watch their RVs get swept away. Im sure this story will come out more publicly because it sounds both amazing and completely insane. Unless you were there, Im guessing theres just no way to understand how fast it all happened. It was like a tsunami. 

that sounds like every last regular on the rain thread here.  i know for a fact I'm usually up late and drinking (and I don't even drink that much) when there's a gullywasher let alone a cataclysmic rain event. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Baconboy said:

I agree with most everything you wrote except the bolded parts. I think we do know what would have happened if everyone moved uphill an hour earlier. There's video of Mystic girls walking through shin deep water pretty close to Bubble Inn and Twins. Oddly, they are evacuating to another building that was located in the floodway (area even lower than the floodplain), which to me indicates there was a general lack of knowledge, poor planning, or poor communication about where to go in a flooding event.

I get the reservations about assigning blame and can sympathize with the dilemma of sheltering in place vs evacuating; but its OK to evaluate an event and recognize mistakes were made while also applauding the efforts made to save lives. And to be clear I am not being critical of any campers or counselors for their decisions; I do think it's fair to be critical of a plan that clearly failed those girls - especially if the camp-designed, state-approved plan was for the girls to just ride out the flood in cabins that sit in the floodway and/or 100 year floodplain.

Fair.  On my "who knows" point, I was just avoiding any air of certainty on my part, but I agree with you.  With respect to the cabins, I meant once the waters came in, I am not sure anything could have been done based on what I read and having been at the camp and knowing where those sit.  Those two cabins were in the middle of what was essentially a massive set of whirlpools. 

Obviously, if they act even 30 minutes sooner (much less the full hour), this is all a different story.  That is what, unfortunately, Mystic/Eastlands, and those that lost people, will be grappling with forever.    There likely isn't a great answer there that doesn't boil down to some combo of complacency, hubris, and really, really bad judgment by those *responsible* - like I said, both that night and in decisions made in the years leading up.

Edited by A-Tex Devil
Posted
23 minutes ago, Baconboy said:

especially if the camp-designed, state-approved plan was for the girls to just ride out the flood in cabins that sit in the floodway and/or 100 year floodplain.

Maybe the plan was to appeal the cabins out of the floodway on paper, thereby making them less flood prone. 

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Posted
51 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

What kind of a walk/hike is it to higher ground and finally to safe ground?  This, someone can answer. Is it flat for a distance than a decent incline?  Or some incline all the way?  This informs how likely they were to be able to outpace the rising water in transit.  I would hope that they could make 6” a minute of elevation gain. 
 

why did some campers wake up to water in their cabins?  They should have been gone well before that occurred. 
 

where was the water when the camp received the warning, in relation to the cabins?  

I kind of hate the feeling of estimating this since we have no idea what the situation on the ground was like that night. But looking at Google earth the bubble inn is 60 feet from a steep hill. The other close by cabins are closer to the hill. In a straight line the hill climbs 80 feet in 250 feet from the front door of the cabin. 

It looks like there is a path of some sort that climbs that hill. Even with pretty generous switchbacking it climbs the hill in 0.2 of a mile. 

I don’t know a damn thing about running a summer camp, and almost nothing about the Texas hill country, but it seems that if you’re going to have a camp in a designated floodway of one of the most flash flood prone areas in the world, you’d at least consider “if shit goes sideways, how much time do we need to get these kids up the hill?” 

It sure as shit seems to me that the protocol should have been “if we hear the (nonexistent) siren, we need to get these girls to high ground in <X minutes.” 

I have no clue what the situation on the ground was like that night. I don't know what time it started raining. I don’t know what the forecast was the day before. 

But if flash floods are a risk, if you have children sleeping in a floodway, and there is any rain in the forecast, how is the plan not put in place with escalations planned out. At minimum, the girls have their rain coats and shoes at the ready. Someone or more keeping close watch on the radar / weather alerts / upstream river gauges. Then if x amounts of rain falls or river level increases by x amount, we wake the girls in the lowlands and get them to a central location. If the alarm sounds we have X minutes to get to x height. 

There’s a good chance my math is wrong here, but if a flash flood wave is traveling  at 9 ft/s, a warning gauge a mile and a half upstream would provide 15 minutes of warning that shit is about to absolutely hit the fan. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Correct.
The farther downstream from the initiating floodwave, the more time people have to get out of the way. It’s hard to save the people at the start point, it gets easier with each increment of distance downstream.
BTW, I have personally turned around and avoided a developing flood, at night, in this exact location. I was still close to Ingram when I turned around. A Hunt school board member died on 39 that night. I was far enough downstream to realize what was developing and GTFO. People died two weeks ago right near where I turned around.

That’s what concerns me about the sirens and evacuations during the actual flood event.

Hwy 39 and 1340 are super dangerous when it floods. There are over a dozen spots I can think of that flood from Mystic and Mo-Ranch to Ingram. Not just the 1 in 500 year flood, but the routine floods that occur all the time out there. 

Posted
1 hour ago, troph said:

and for the RVers... if you are camping on a river bank and unaware of the weather and without an analog weather radio then I just don't know what to tell you other than the fact you probably weren't a boy scout.  still, you deserve sirens too.

In one post I mentioned RVers separately because they tend to be on a property owned and maintained by someone else who has rules and so forth and thus, in my opinion, some responsibility to warn campers if not evacuate the campground entirely.  But yeah that's getting closer to play stupid games win stupid prizes.

Posted
That’s what concerns me about the sirens and evacuations during the actual flood event.
Hwy 39 and 1340 are super dangerous when it floods. There are over a dozen spots I can think of that flood from Mystic and Mo-Ranch to Ingram. Not just the 1 in 500 year flood, but the routine floods that occur all the time out there. 

Sure, nothing is risk-free. But the protocol is “get to higher ground,” not “drive down 1340 over 5 low water crossings.”
And again, people died all along 39, which has a shitload of higher ground available.
You are focused on Mystic and the far upper reaches of the river only. Stop.
Posted
2 hours ago, Texas Fight said:

I agree with this.  Hurricanes and Tornados evacuations occur days before the weather arrives.  Telling people to evacuate only when the river is rising, seems problematic.  There are too many other perils to give a blanket directive when the actual event is occurring.  

Why the fuck are you so opposed to any efforts to save lives the next time a river floods?

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Posted
Why the fuck are you so opposed to any efforts to save lives the next time a river floods?

He just wants to reach an outcome that exonerates his team and relieves them of all culpability. A “nothing at all could have helped at all” conclusion is really the only thing that does that, so he’s all-in on it. This isn’t complicated.
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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Why the fuck are you so opposed to any efforts to save lives the next time a river floods?

The post you responded to deserves to be in the stupid hall of fame. Holy shit. 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


You are focused on Mystic and the far upper reaches of the river only. Stop.

As it relates to the sirens, that's not where I'm thinking.  I keep running the scenario in my head as if I was in Casa Bonita, Japonica Estates or the houses just up river from them.  Like most of the at risk out there, they are sandwiched between Hwy 39 and the river.  There is no high ground.  Almost assuredly, their evac plan is to get in the car and drive.  

20 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Why the fuck are you so opposed to any efforts to save lives the next time a river floods?

Where did I say that?  Anywhere?

Posted
18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


He just wants to reach an outcome that exonerates his team and relieves them of all culpability. A “nothing at all could have helped at all” conclusion is really the only thing that does that, so he’s all-in on it. This isn’t complicated.

Ok Since we are making up each others desires, you are clearly looking for a way your team can say, "it could have been a lot worse." 

Good luck with the siren 1 mile up-river from your camp, pal.  That'll show them.

 

Posted
55 minutes ago, Baconboy said:

I agree with most everything you wrote except the bolded parts. I think we do know what would have happened if everyone moved uphill an hour earlier. There's video of Mystic girls walking through shin deep water pretty close to Bubble Inn and Twins. Oddly, they are evacuating to another building that was located in the floodway (area even lower than the floodplain), which to me indicates there was a general lack of knowledge, poor planning, or poor communication about where to go in a flooding event.

I get the reservations about assigning blame and can sympathize with the dilemma of sheltering in place vs evacuating; but its OK to evaluate an event and recognize mistakes were made while also applauding the efforts made to save lives. And to be clear I am not being critical of any campers or counselors for their decisions; I do think it's fair to be critical of a plan that clearly failed those girls - especially if the camp-designed, state-approved plan was for the girls to just ride out the flood in cabins that sit in the floodway and/or 100 year floodplain.

I've seen that video, and can't understand why the Bubble Inn and Twins campers weren't with that group going to Rec Hall.  I don't know the timing on that video, maybe it was after the waters started receding?  But that doesn't seem to jive with what I've read coming from some of the girls that were evacuated to Rec Hall.  And yes that building is in the floodway, but it has a second floor or balcony that the girls were taken to above the flood waters. The risk there was if that building would have gotten washed away, or if the river had kept rising. Neither of which happened.  Not sure why they chose to evacuate there. Maybe closest and quickest place to get as high as possible?

Posted
Ok Since we are making up each others desires, you are clearly looking for a way your team can say, "it could have been a lot worse." 
Good luck with the siren 1 mile up-river from your camp, pal.  That'll show them.
 

1 mile gives several minutes warning, which is better than NO warning. So, it’s still a likely improvement even that close. Several miles gives 30 mins or more warning. People died all along 1340 and 39.
Your hyper-focus on the relatively small percentage of locations that are right at the headwaters is nonsensical.
The fact that we are arguing about whether the concept of flood warning sirens is good….when there are literally hundreds/thousands of such systems in place all over the world, BECAUSE THEY WORK, Is insane.
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Posted
1 minute ago, sunset87 said:

I've seen that video, and can't understand why the Bubble Inn and Twins campers weren't with that group going to Rec Hall.  I don't know the timing on that video, maybe it was after the waters started receding?  But that doesn't seem to jive with what I've read coming from some of the girls that were evacuated to Rec Hall.  And yes that building is in the floodway, but it has a second floor or balcony that the girls were taken to above the flood waters. The risk there was if that building would have gotten washed away, or if the river had kept rising. Neither of which happened.  Not sure why they chose to evacuate there. Maybe closest and quickest place to get as high as possible?

From the account I read, that seemed to be the closest point of relief after girls were already climbing out of cabin windows and had to cross various depths of water to get there. Most of them were trying to shelter in place on the top bunks until the water broke the door in and they had no choice but to find a way out. 

Posted
47 minutes ago, Texas Fight said:

That’s what concerns me about the sirens and evacuations during the actual flood event.

Hwy 39 and 1340 are super dangerous when it floods. There are over a dozen spots I can think of that flood from Mystic and Mo-Ranch to Ingram. Not just the 1 in 500 year flood, but the routine floods that occur all the time out there. 

did your mom drink a lot when she was pregnant?  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


1 mile gives several minutes warning, which is better than NO warning. So, it’s still a likely improvement even that close. Several miles gives 30 mins or more warning. People died all along 1340 and 39.
Your hyper-focus on the relatively small percentage of locations that are right at the headwaters is nonsensical.
The fact that we are arguing about whether the concept of flood warning sirens is good….when there are literally hundreds/thousands of such systems in place all over the world, BECAUSE THEY WORK, Is insane.

IMO, Mystic's only real chance, without a siren system, was having someone up and watching the river.  They need sirens, they need to set them off when even a flash flood "watch" is occuring in that area. They could even have different siren sounds for watch vs warning.  THEY ARE IN A KNOWN MAJOR FLOOD ZONE.  Houses are built on stilts for god's sake. I live near 183 and mcneil.  I don't care about a flood watch or a flood warning, my house will never flood but if I lived/camped near any type of potential flooding location I would be watching and be ready. on top of that remnants of a tropical storm were moving through(until it wasn't).

The NWS can't predict the exact amount of rainfall and the amount of time in which it will fall.  The reality is the people running the camps were responsible for those kids. I am sure they are/were great people and are utterly devastated but they failed them.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

The post you responded to deserves to be in the stupid hall of fame. Holy shit. 

In the Helobious wing of the Hall. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

IMO, Mystic's only real chance, without a siren system, was having someone up and watching the river.  They need sirens, they need to set them off when even a flash flood "watch" is occuring in that area. They could even have different siren sounds for watch vs warning.  THEY ARE IN A KNOWN MAJOR FLOOD ZONE.  Houses are built on stilts for god's sake. I live near 183 and mcneil.  I don't care about a flood watch or a flood warning, my house will never flood but if I lived/camped near any type of potential flooding location I would be watching and be ready. on top of that remnants of a tropical storm were moving through(until it wasn't).

The NWS can't predict the exact amount of rainfall and the amount of time in which it will fall.  The reality is the people running the camps were responsible for those kids. I am sure they are/were great people and are utterly devastated but they failed them.

 

This. The minute Dick Eastland saw the "life threatening flooding possible/expected" he should've immediately shot into action as far as getting the little kids out of the cabins nearest the water and in the most danger. Nothing was going to save some of the buildings from flooding but they'd be overwhelmed with support from alums etc to help rebuild if flood insurance wasn't enough. Negligence (i.e. waiting 45 mins to start getting the kids out of the cabins) leading to 27 campers/counselors to drowning in the river is going to cost his family everything Mystic-related.

Posted
2 hours ago, BlackCat said:

Theres a story of a dude that stayed up drinking and watching the storm at an rv park. At this point I dont even remember where its from. Around 1:30 he noticed the water had risen a lot and decided to go in and check the weather. He saw there were a bunch of alerts, came back outside, and the water had risen a shit ton in just minutes. He raised drunken hell banging on everyones rv doors and telling the men he came across to do the same. Everyone got out in time to watch their RVs get swept away. Im sure this story will come out more publicly because it sounds both amazing and completely insane. Unless you were there, Im guessing theres just no way to understand how fast it all happened. It was like a tsunami. 

 

2 hours ago, troph said:

that sounds like every last regular on the rain thread here.  i know for a fact I'm usually up late and drinking (and I don't even drink that much) when there's a gullywasher let alone a cataclysmic rain event. 

I wonder how many lives would've been saved if Panchchat still existed. 

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Posted
Just now, TexasEd said:

Wow, I can't believe there are people (a person) arguing against getting out of the floodplain to higher ground when a flood is coming.  

YOU CANT TELL ME WHAT TO DO

FREEDUMB!!!!

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Posted
18 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Wow, I can't believe there are people (a person) arguing against getting out of the floodplain to higher ground when a flood is coming.  

He couldn’t have known!  And it wasn’t part of the recently approved plan!

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Posted
4 hours ago, Hammerin Hank said:

It seems some here are extremely hesitant to assign any blame in this situation.  Let’s try a different word. That word is RESPONSIBILITY. If you’re a camp leader you are responsible for the children in your care. If you are a county official you are responsible for making sure the county is safe for residents and visitors. If you’re a state official you are responsible for making sure the counties are properly prepared for disaster. There were failures at all levels, but nobody is taking any responsibility. And some here are refusing to assign any responsibility. Leaders are supposed to be responsible.

absolutely.  Hurricane Katrina out front should have told you....complete failure from city, metro, state which of course was decades of idiocy in the making.

this was very similar. plenty of historical evidence suggested you needed a siren system. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Texas Fight said:

As it relates to the sirens, that's not where I'm thinking.  I keep running the scenario in my head as if I was in Casa Bonita, Japonica Estates or the houses just up river from them.  Like most of the at risk out there, they are sandwiched between Hwy 39 and the river.  There is no high ground.  Almost assuredly, their evac plan is to get in the car and drive.  

Where did I say that?  Anywhere?

You keep trying to make all natural disasters have similar safety plans. A flash flood isn’t a hurricane where you’ve got days notice to pack your shit and drive away because you need to avoid a 500 mile wide storm. It’s not the same as a tornado where you need to get into a solid internal structure because the building might collapse around you and you don’t know if it’s going to level your street or a few blocks over. It’s trying to not get fucking swept away by a river in a known location with little warning. You don’t have to drive 25 miles to get away from it. You have to get 50’ up hill as quickly as possible. The scenario where someone in Japonica Estates needs to avoid getting swept away by the river is the get in their car and drive or run 0.25 miles in either direction to the closest uphill road. They don’t need to make it out of the area, they need to get slightly uphill as fast as possible. You’re not driving around in it trying to go somewhere. You’re just trying to not be in the river. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, BlackCat said:

Theres a story of a dude that stayed up drinking and watching the storm at an rv park. At this point I dont even remember where its from. Around 1:30 he noticed the water had risen a lot and decided to go in and check the weather. He saw there were a bunch of alerts, came back outside, and the water had risen a shit ton in just minutes. He raised drunken hell banging on everyones rv doors and telling the men he came across to do the same. Everyone got out in time to watch their RVs get swept away. Im sure this story will come out more publicly because it sounds both amazing and completely insane. Unless you were there, Im guessing theres just no way to understand how fast it all happened. It was like a tsunami. 

Sorry for partying. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Texas Fight said:

Good luck with the siren 1 mile up-river from your camp, pal.  That'll show them.

Honestly, that would have probably saved lives. Campers waking up in neck deep water is too late. Waking up to ankle deep means they can probably scramble to higher ground.

That was a difference of about 5 minutes in this specific case with the cabins near the headwaters.

Sirens would have saved lives. I don't know why this is such an offensive concept to you.

Posted
16 minutes ago, heso said:

You keep trying to make all natural disasters have similar safety plans. A flash flood isn’t a hurricane where you’ve got days notice to pack your shit and drive away because you need to avoid a 500 mile wide storm. It’s not the same as a tornado where you need to get into a solid internal structure because the building might collapse around you and you don’t know if it’s going to level your street or a few blocks over. It’s trying to not get fucking swept away by a river in a known location with little warning. You don’t have to drive 25 miles to get away from it. You have to get 50’ up hill as quickly as possible. The scenario where someone in Japonica Estates needs to avoid getting swept away by the river is the get in their car and drive or run 0.25 miles in either direction to the closest uphill road. They don’t need to make it out of the area, they need to get slightly uphill as fast as possible. You’re not driving around in it trying to go somewhere. You’re just trying to not be in the river. 

exactly. or an earthquake where all you can do is get under a table or move away from a building/structure.

 

Posted

@C-Manare you friends with Bonners or Pecks?  I cannot remember. They both went to elementary where my kids went and I know Blake. I didn’t attend that funeral but hear the Bonners were very explicit on zero mention of mystic during the service.  

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