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Lil’Jordan Humphrey


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LJH will be a 3rd round pick at best. NFL scouts will see the YAC and recognize that that won't happen at the next level. Michael Thomas was at the end of the 2nd round, Tyreek Hill in the 5th, fucking Antonio Brown was taken in the 6th. How success in the NFL will be determined by the team he goes to and the QB throwing to him just like every other WR in the league


He’s 6’4” , runs good routes, and runs(YAC) like a RB. I think 2nd round at minimum.
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He’s going to make a ton of money if he waits one more year.  We have a legit shot at CFP next year and he will be able to show case his talents.  Him leaving this year woukd be like Vince leaving after the Michigan Rose.  Stay a little longer LJ and then get paid s your grandkids never have to work. 

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LJH will be a 3rd round pick at best. NFL scouts will see the YAC and recognize that that won't happen at the next level. Michael Thomas was at the end of the 2nd round, Tyreek Hill in the 5th, fucking Antonio Brown was taken in the 6th. How success in the NFL will be determined by the team he goes to and the QB throwing to him just like every other WR in the league


Tyreek is a woman beater. LJH is unguardable. A smart team will ignore his 4.7 40 and pick him up. He’s a unique talent.
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I feel like he is playing his way into the first round over the past 4 games or so.  He makes plays.  It's an over used cliche, but in this case 100% applies, he is a game changer.  Frankly we need to be a little more creative in getting him the ball, I'd like to see him get at least 15 targets+touches a game.

I agree that who is QB matters a lot when it comes to what you get out of the position, but there are definitely guys in the NFL who are great without a good QB.  Fitzgerald comes to mind.  Guy is 2nd all time now in yardage and his best QB was probably Carson Palmer.  

All that said, if I'm an NFL GM the only positions on my team that get 2nd contracts are QB/OL/DL.  Get an elite QB and protect him, control the line of scrimmage and you can plug in the rest year in, year out.  

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18 hours ago, Hozz said:

I agree that who is QB matters a lot when it comes to what you get out of the position, but there are definitely guys in the NFL who are great without a good QB.  Fitzgerald comes to mind.  Guy is 2nd all time now in yardage and his best QB was probably Carson Palmer. 

I get that LJH was a beast, but Fitzgerald was absolutely obscene at Pitt. Not really a comparison. These numbers LJH is putting up now? Fitzgerald matched them as a freshman, and then blew them away as a sophomore.

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1 minute ago, Matagorda said:

Its in his financial interest to come back.  Unless he has family financial issues that need immediate bailing out, he will be worth much more next year. 

Smaller likelihood of that coming from southlake. 

If he already knew he was leaving, he would have been honored on senior day. 

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18 hours ago, Hozz said:

I feel like he is playing his way into the first round over the past 4 games or so.  He makes plays.  It's an over used cliche, but in this case 100% applies, he is a game changer.  Frankly we need to be a little more creative in getting him the ball, I'd like to see him get at least 15 targets+touches a game.

I agree that who is QB matters a lot when it comes to what you get out of the position, but there are definitely guys in the NFL who are great without a good QB.  Fitzgerald comes to mind.  Guy is 2nd all time now in yardage and his best QB was probably Carson Palmer.  

All that said, if I'm an NFL GM the only positions on my team that get 2nd contracts are QB/OL/DL.  Get an elite QB and protect him, control the line of scrimmage and you can plug in the rest year in, year out.  

His draft ceiling is probably 2nd round.

WRs drafted in the 1st round have to be speedy as well as dominant. That's not to say that he won't be the best WR in his class, but rather that that is how NFL teams draft WRs in the 1st round, that's just how the NFL drafts WRs.

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6 minutes ago, Matagorda said:

So he will make less if he comes out after his senior year than this year? 

LJ has had a meteoric rise this year. He went from 37 catches for 431 yards and a touchdown to 70 catches, 1033 yards and 8 touchdowns with (hopefully) three games left to play. The eye test matches the production. His size and leaping ability make him a match up nightmare. He's not a deep threat which will keep him out of the first round, but he's played himself into a possible second round pick this year.

If he comes back what can he do to improve his draft stock? He's not getting faster. He's not getting bigger. It's nearly impossible for him to be more dominant on the field. He's maxed out as an NFL prospect at this point. History isn't kind to players who make huge jumps from the first two years to the third year who come back for a senior year. Coming back can only hurt his draft stock. Anyone who disagrees is viewing the world through burnt orange glasses.

 

Edited by ATLLonghorn
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2 minutes ago, ATLLonghorn said:

History isn't kind to players who make huge jumps from the first two years to the third year who come back for a senior year. Coming back can only hurt his draft stock. Anyone who disagrees is viewing the world through burnt orange glasses.

 

Not much of an NFL fan, me.

Could you post a substantial list of WRs whose NFL Draft stock dropped as a result of staying in school?  It would be even helpfuller if you could show how much loss they incurred.

#okaycoolhookem

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I get that LJH was a beast, but Fitzgerald was absolutely obscene at Pitt. Not really a comparison. These numbers LJH is putting up now? Fitzgerald matched them as a freshman, and then blew them away as a sophomore.
Fitzgerald absolutely got screwed out of the Heisman
Smaller likelihood of that coming from southlake. 
If he already knew he was leaving, he would have been honored on senior day. 

When did they start doing that? Other than grad transfers and guys that were hanging it up after the season?
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30 minutes ago, ATLLonghorn said:

This is false.

Correct. The big money is made on the 2nd NFL contract. Coming out a year early, even if he is a 2nd rounder, gets him to that second deal a year early. If he is successful in the league, he will go into his second contract while in his mid twenties and that where the big guaranteed money comes.

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1 minute ago, Jkwellborn said:

Fitzgerald absolutely got screwed out of the Heisman

When did they start doing that? Other than grad transfers and guys that were hanging it up after the season?

Last year, i believe. 

LJ still has lots of time to declare, but if he already knew he was leaving I think he would have chosen to be recognized with the seniors. Same with Collin Johnson and Brandon Jones. 

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24 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I don think LJH’s strength’s will be as dominant in the NFL, where CB’s are far more physical across the board.

Yep he's played against maybe 1-2 CBs who will sniff the NFL. He'll prob run around a 4.7. His route running can definitely be improved. 

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I think the draft last year might factor into his decision. What I mean by that is he saw a bunch of his friends leave early and go way later than they expected. Hell, he saw Foreman - one of the most dominant running backs in the league this decade - go later than he expected when he left a year early. So he will get his draft projection back from the NFL and if it doesn't project him as a first rounder, I suspect he comes back.

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I think a good comp for him is Zay Jones who went 37th. Zay is smaller but faster. They are both physical possession receivers with good ball skills with a question mark or two at the next level.

Someone will either take an early flier on LJ or he will go sometime in the 2nd or 3rd. 

But... obviously hope he stays. He would be a lock for a 1st round pick with another 1,000 yard season for a 13 win team.

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I feel like he is playing his way into the first round over the past 4 games or so.  He makes plays.  It's an over used cliche, but in this case 100% applies, he is a game changer.  Frankly we need to be a little more creative in getting him the ball, I'd like to see him get at least 15 targets+touches a game.
I agree that who is QB matters a lot when it comes to what you get out of the position, but there are definitely guys in the NFL who are great without a good QB.  Fitzgerald comes to mind.  Guy is 2nd all time now in yardage and his best QB was probably Carson Palmer.  
All that said, if I'm an NFL GM the only positions on my team that get 2nd contracts are QB/OL/DL.  Get an elite QB and protect him, control the line of scrimmage and you can plug in the rest year in, year out.  
Hall of Famer Kurt Warner says hi.
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13 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:


I’m pretty sure he doesn’t get a pro day unless he declares.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/pro-day-rule-change-benefits-rising-juniors-who-might-be-considering-nfl-draft/

It's a new rule so I'll cut you some slack. 

Also - agree that he probably runs a 4.6 on a good day. 

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So the rule is that up to 5 underclassmen can participate even if they didn't declare for the draft. Unfortunately (and obviously) the pro days occur after the deadline to declare. So it's more a way for a junior to get measurables going into their senior season. 

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7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

So the rule is that up to 5 underclassmen can participate even if they didn't declare for the draft. Unfortunately (and obviously) the pro days occur after the deadline to declare. So it's more a way for a junior to get measurables going into their senior season. 


Or for a sophomore (a.k.a. "rising junior") to find out early on what the NFL thinks of their measurables. 

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1 minute ago, Napoleon said:


Or for a sophomore (a.k.a. "rising junior") to find out early on what the NFL thinks of their measurables. 

Yeah I think that would be the scenario that offers the most utility. Which is kind of dumb. Hard to know as a sophomore if you're worth a shit yet.

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